Combined mitochondrial and nuclear DNA sequences resolve the interrelations of the major Australasian marsupial radiations

Australasian marsupials include three major radiations, the insectivorous/carnivorous Dasyuromorphia, the omnivorous bandicoots (Peramelemorphia), and the largely herbivorous diprotodontians. Morphologists have generally considered the bandicoots and diprotodontians to be closely related, most prominently because they are both syndactylous (with the 2nd and 3rd pedal digits being fused). Molecular studies have been unable to confirm or reject this Syndactyla hypothesis. Here we present new mitochondrial (mt) genomes from a spiny bandicoot (Echymipera rufescens) and two dasyurids, a fat-tailed dunnart (Sminthopsis crassicaudata) and a northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus). By comparing trees derived from pairwise base-frequency differences between taxa with standard (absolute, uncorrected) distance trees, we infer that composition bias among mt protein-coding and RNA sequences is sufficient to mislead tree reconstruction. This can explain incongruence between trees obtained from mt and nuclear data sets. However, after excluding major sources of compositional heterogeneity, both the “reduced-bias” mt and nuclear data sets clearly favor a bandicoot plus dasyuromorphian association, as well as a grouping of kangaroos and possums (Phalangeriformes) among diprotodontians. Notably, alternatives to these groupings could only be confidently rejected by combining the mt and nuclear data. Elsewhere on the tree, Dromiciops appears to be sister to the monophyletic Australasian marsupials, whereas the placement of the marsupial mole (Notoryctes) remains problematic. More generally, we contend that it is desirable to combine mt genome and nuclear sequences for inferring vertebrate phylogeny, but as separately modeled process partitions. This strategy depends on detecting and excluding (or accounting for) major sources of nonhistorical signal, such as from compositional nonstationarity.

Branch-length estimation bias misleads molecular dating for a vertebrate mitochondrial phylogeny

Despite recent methodological advances in inferring the time-scale of biological evolution from molecular data, the fundamental question of whether our substitution models are sufficiently well specified to accurately estimate branch-lengths has received little attention. I examine this implicit assumption of all molecular dating methods, on a vertebrate mitochondrial protein-coding dataset. Comparison with analyses in which the data are RY-coded (AG → R; CT → Y) suggests that even rates-across-sites maximum likelihood greatly under-compensates for multiple substitutions among the standard (ACGT) NT-coded data, which has been subject to greater phylogenetic signal erosion. Accordingly, the fossil record indicates that branch-lengths inferred from the NT-coded data translate into divergence time overestimates when calibrated from deeper in the tree. Intriguingly, RY-coding led to the opposite result. The underlying NT and RY substitution model misspecifications likely relate respectively to “hidden” rate heterogeneity and changes in substitution processes across the tree, for which I provide simulated examples. Given the magnitude of the inferred molecular dating errors, branch-length estimation biases may partly explain current conflicts with some palaeontological dating estimates.

Tinamous and moa flock together : mitochondrial genome sequence analysis reveals independent losses of flight among ratites

Ratites are large, flightless birds and include the ostrich, rheas, kiwi, emu, and cassowaries, along with extinct members, such as moa and elephant birds. Previous phylogenetic analyses of complete mitochondrial genome sequences have reinforced the traditional belief that ratites are monophyletic and tinamous are their sister group. However, in these studies ratite monophyly was enforced in the analyses that modeled rate heterogeneity among variable sites. Relaxing this topological constraint results in strong support for the tinamous (which fly) nesting within ratites. Furthermore, upon reducing base compositional bias and partitioning models of sequence evolution among protein codon positions and RNA structures, the tinamou–moa clade grouped with kiwi, emu, and cassowaries to the exclusion of the successively more divergent rheas and ostrich. These relationships are consistent with recent results from a large nuclear data set, whereas our strongly supported finding of a tinamou–moa grouping further resolves palaeognath phylogeny. We infer flight to have been lost among ratites multiple times in temporally close association with the Cretaceous–Tertiary extinction event. This circumvents requirements for transient microcontinents and island chains to explain discordance between ratite phylogeny and patterns of continental breakup. Ostriches may have dispersed to Africa from Eurasia, putting in question the status of ratites as an iconic Gondwanan relict taxon. [Base composition; flightless; Gondwana; mitochondrial genome; Palaeognathae; phylogeny; ratites.]

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data.

Purine Nucleoside Phosphorylase mediated molecular chemotherapy and conventional chemotherapy: A tangible union against chemoresistant cancer

Background Late stage Ovarian Cancer is essentially incurable primarily due to late diagnosis and its inherent heterogeneity. Single agent treatments are inadequate and generally lead to severe side effects at therapeutic doses. It is crucial to develop clinically relevant novel combination regimens involving synergistic modalities that target a wider repertoire of cells and lead to lowered individual doses. Stemming from this premise, this is the first report of two- and three-way synergies between Adenovirus-mediated Purine Nucleoside Phosphorylase based gene directed enzyme prodrug therapy (PNP-GDEPT), docetaxel and/or carboplatin in multidrug-resistant ovarian cancer cells. Methods The effects of PNP-GDEPT on different cellular processes were determined using Shotgun Proteomics analyses. The in vitro cell growth inhibition in differentially treated drug resistant human ovarian cancer cell lines was established using a cell-viability assay. The extent of synergy, additivity, or antagonism between treatments was evaluated using CalcuSyn statistical analyses. The involvement of apoptosis and implicated proteins in effects of different treatments was established using flow cytometry based detection of M30 (an early marker of apoptosis), cell cycle analyses and finally western blot based analyses. Results Efficacy of the trimodal treatment was significantly greater than that achieved with bimodal- or individual treatments with potential for 10-50 fold dose reduction compared to that required for individual treatments. Of note was the marked enhancement in apoptosis that specifically accompanied the combinations that included PNP-GDEPT and accordingly correlated with a shift in the expression of anti- and pro-apoptotic proteins. PNP-GDEPT mediated enhancement of apoptosis was reinforced by cell cycle analyses. Proteomic analyses of PNP-GDEPT treated cells indicated a dowregulation of proteins involved in oncogenesis or cancer drug resistance in treated cells with accompanying upregulation of apoptotic- and tumour- suppressor proteins. Conclusion Inclusion of PNP-GDEPT in regular chemotherapy regimens can lead to significant enhancement of the cancer cell susceptibility to the combined treatment. Overall, these data will underpin the development of regimens that can benefit patients with late stage ovarian cancer leading to significantly improved efficacy and increased quality of life.

Methodological challenges when estimating the effects of season and seasonal exposures on birth outcomes

Background Many previous studies have found seasonal patterns in birth outcomes, but with little agreement about which season poses the highest risk. Some of the heterogeneity between studies may be explained by a previously unknown bias. The bias occurs in retrospective cohorts which include all births occurring within a fixed start and end date, which means shorter pregnancies are missed at the start of the study, and longer pregnancies are missed at the end. Our objective was to show the potential size of this bias and how to avoid it. Methods To demonstrate the bias we simulated a retrospective birth cohort with no seasonal pattern in gestation and used a range of cohort end dates. As a real example, we used a cohort of 114,063 singleton births in Brisbane between 1 July 2005 and 30 June 2009 and examined the bias when estimating changes in gestation length associated with season (using month of conception) and a seasonal exposure (temperature). We used survival analyses with temperature as a time-dependent variable. Results We found strong artificial seasonal patterns in gestation length by month of conception, which depended on the end date of the study. The bias was avoided when the day and month of the start date was just before the day and month of the end date (regardless of year), so that the longer gestations at the start of the study were balanced by the shorter gestations at the end. After removing the fixed cohort bias there was a noticeable change in the effect of temperature on gestation length. The adjusted hazard ratios were flatter at the extremes of temperature but steeper between 15 and 25°C. Conclusions Studies using retrospective birth cohorts should account for the fixed cohort bias by removing selected births to get unbiased estimates of seasonal health effects.

Analytical and numerical solutions of the space and time fractional bloch-torrey equation

Fractional order dynamics in physics, particularly when applied to diffusion, leads to an extension of the concept of Brown-ian motion through a generalization of the Gaussian probability function to what is termed anomalous diffusion. As MRI is applied with increasing temporal and spatial resolution, the spin dynamics are being examined more closely; such examinations extend our knowledge of biological materials through a detailed analysis of relaxation time distribution and water diffusion heterogeneity. Here the dynamic models become more complex as they attempt to correlate new data with a multiplicity of tissue compartments where processes are often anisotropic. Anomalous diffusion in the human brain using fractional order calculus has been investigated. Recently, a new diffusion model was proposed by solving the Bloch-Torrey equation using fractional order calculus with respect to time and space (see R.L. Magin et al., J. Magnetic Resonance, 190 (2008) 255-270). However effective numerical methods and supporting error analyses for the fractional Bloch-Torrey equation are still limited. In this paper, the space and time fractional Bloch-Torrey equation (ST-FBTE) is considered. The time and space derivatives in the ST-FBTE are replaced by the Caputo and the sequential Riesz fractional derivatives, respectively. Firstly, we derive an analytical solution for the ST-FBTE with initial and boundary conditions on a finite domain. Secondly, we propose an implicit numerical method (INM) for the ST-FBTE, and the stability and convergence of the INM are investigated. We prove that the implicit numerical method for the ST-FBTE is unconditionally stable and convergent. Finally, we present some numerical results that support our theoretical analysis.

Removal of toxic metals in a multi metal system using sorbents for potential application to urban stormwater treatment

In the context of increasing demand for potable water and the depletion of water resources, stormwater is a logical alternative. However, stormwater contains pollutants, among which metals are of particular interest due to their toxicity and persistence in the environment. Hence, it is imperative to remove toxic metals in stormwater to the levels prescribed by drinking water guidelines for potable use. Consequently, various techniques have been proposed, among which sorption using low cost sorbents is economically viable and environmentally benign in comparison to other techniques. However, sorbents show affinity towards certain toxic metals, which results in poor removal of other toxic metals. It was hypothesised in this study that a mixture of sorbents that have different metal affinity patterns can be used for the efficient removal of a range of toxic metals commonly found in stormwater. The performance of six sorbents in the sorption of Al, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Zn and Cd, which are the toxic metals commonly found in urban stormwater, was investigated to select suitable sorbents for creating the mixtures. For this purpose, a multi criteria analytical protocol was developed using the decision making methods: PROMETHEE (Preference Ranking Organisation METHod for Enrichment Evaluations) and GAIA (Graphical Analysis for Interactive Assistance). Zeolite and seaweed were selected for the creation of trial mixtures based on their metal affinity pattern and the performance on predetermined selection criteria. The metal sorption mechanisms employed by seaweed and zeolite were defined using kinetics, isotherm and thermodynamics parameters, which were determined using the batch sorption experiments. Additionally, the kinetics rate-limiting steps were identified using an innovative approach using GAIA and Spearman correlation techniques developed as part of the study, to overcome the limitation in conventional graphical methods in predicting the degree of contribution of each kinetics step in limiting the overall metal removal rate. The sorption kinetics of zeolite was found to be primarily limited by intraparticle diffusion followed by the sorption reaction steps, which were governed mainly by the hydrated ionic diameter of metals. The isotherm study indicated that the metal sorption mechanism of zeolite was primarily of a physical nature. The thermodynamics study confirmed that the energetically favourable nature of sorption increased in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Ni < Pb < Cr < Al, which is in agreement with metal sorption affinity of zeolite. Hence, sorption thermodynamics has an influence on the metal sorption affinity of zeolite. On the other hand, the primary kinetics rate-limiting step of seaweed was the sorption reaction process followed by intraparticle diffusion. The boundary layer diffusion was also found to limit the metal sorption kinetics at low concentration. According to the sorption isotherm study, Cd, Pb, Cr and Al were sorbed by seaweed via ion exchange, whilst sorption of Ni occurred via physisorption. Furthermore, ionic bonding is responsible for the sorption of Zn. The thermodynamics study confirmed that sorption by seaweed was energetically favourable in the order of Zn < Cu < Cd < Cr . Al < Pb < Ni. However, this did not agree with the affinity series derived for seaweed suggesting a limited influence of sorption thermodynamics on metal affinity for seaweed. The investigation of zeolite-seaweed mixtures indicated that mixing sorbents have an effect on the kinetics rates and the sorption affinity. Additionally, the theoretical relationships were derived to predict the boundary layer diffusion rate, intraparticle diffusion rate, the sorption reaction rate and the enthalpy of mixtures based on that of individual sorbents. In general, low coefficient of determination (R2) for the relationships between theoretical and experimental data indicated that the relationships were not statistically significant. This was attributed to the heterogeneity of the properties of sorbents. Nevertheless, in relative terms, the intraparticle diffusion rate, sorption reaction rate and enthalpy of sorption had higher R2 values than the boundary layer diffusion rate suggesting that there was some relationship between the former set of parameters of mixtures and that of sorbents. The mixture, which contained 80% of zeolite and 20% of seaweed, showed similar affinity for the sorption of Cu, Ni, Cd, Cr and Al, which was attributed to approximately similar sorption enthalpy of the metal ions. Therefore, it was concluded that the seaweed-zeolite mixture can be used to obtain the same affinity for various metals present in a multi metal system provided the metal ions have similar enthalpy during sorption by the mixture.

Effect of caffeine on adenosine-induced reversible perfusion defects assessed by automated analysis

Objectives This prospective study investigated the effects of caffeine ingestion on the extent of adenosine-induced perfusion abnormalities during myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI). Methods Thirty patients with inducible perfusion abnormalities on standard (caffeine-abstinent) adenosine MPI underwent repeat testing with supplementary coffee intake. Baseline and test MPIs were assessed for stress percent defect, rest percent defect, and percent defect reversibility. Plasma levels of caffeine and metabolites were assessed on both occasions and correlated with MPI findings. Results Despite significant increases in caffeine [mean difference 3,106 μg/L (95% CI 2,460 to 3,752 μg/L; P < .001)] and metabolite concentrations over a wide range, there was no statistically significant change in stress percent defect and percent defect reversibility between the baseline and test scans. The increase in caffeine concentration between the baseline and the test phases did not affect percent defect reversibility (average change −0.003 for every 100 μg/L increase; 95% CI −0.17 to 0.16; P = .97). Conclusion There was no significant relationship between the extent of adenosine-induced coronary flow heterogeneity and the serum concentration of caffeine or its principal metabolites. Hence, the stringent requirements for prolonged abstinence from caffeine before adenosine MPI—based on limited studies—appear ill-founded.

Children and the environment

Children and the environment cover a broad, interdisciplinary field of research and practice. The social sciences often use the word “environment” to mean the social, political, or economic context of children’s lives, but this bibliography covers physical settings. It focuses on a place-based scale that children can see, hear, taste, smell, touch, and navigate: not large, abstract scales such as national identities or population dynamics, or small scales such as environmental impacts on genes or cell functions. Attention to the everyday settings of children’s lives grew in the 18th century, when Romantic literature introduced the theme of children and nature. In the 19th century, concern for children’s welfare included an interest in conditions for children in burgeoning industrial cities, and justifications for early streetcar and railroad suburbs included claims that they would save children from the dangers of cities and provide the healthful benefits of natural surroundings. In the 20th century, academic disciplines developed different lines of inquiry about the impact of the physical environment on children and how children relate to places: ethnographic studies of children in different parts of the world in the fields of anthropology and geography; sociological studies of different populations of children in different settings; educational research on the learning opportunities that different school and out-of-school settings afford; medical research to understand disease vectors and the impact of pollutants on children; and efforts in the field of environment and behavior research more broadly, to understand how built and designed environments affect children physically, cognitively, socially, and emotionally. At the beginning of the 21st century, children and the environment is an active area of inquiry seeking to understand rapidly changing conditions for children as the world urbanizes, opportunities for free play outdoors and independent mobility erode in many parts of the world, media environments consume more of children’s time, and awareness grows that children need opportunities to contribute to creating sustainable societies.

Prognostic significance of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins in breast cancer patients

Breast cancer is a leading contributor to the burden of disease in Australia. Fortunately, the recent introduction of diverse therapeutic strategies have improved the survival outcome for many women. Despite this, the clinical management of breast cancer remains problematic as not all approaches are sufficiently sophisticated to take into account the heterogeneity of this disease and are unable to predict disease progression, in particular, metastasis. As such, women with good prognostic outcomes are exposed to the side effects of therapies without added benefit. Furthermore, women with aggressive disease for whom these advanced treatments would deliver benefit cannot be distinguished and opportunities for more intensive or novel treatment are lost. This study is designed to identify novel factors associated with disease progression, and the potential to inform disease prognosis. Frequently overlooked, yet common mediators of disease are the interactions that take place between the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the extracellular matrix (ECM). Our laboratory has previously demonstrated that multiprotein insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I): insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP): vitronectin (VN) complexes stimulate migration of breast cancer cells in vitro, via the cooperative involvement of the insulin-like growth factor type I receptor (IGF-IR) and VN-binding integrins. However, the effects of IGF and ECM protein interactions on the dissemination and progression of breast cancer in vivo are unknown. It was hypothesised that interactions between proteins required for IGF induced signalling events and those within the ECM contribute to breast cancer metastasis and are prognostic and predictive indicators of patient outcome. To address this hypothesis, semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) analyses were performed to compare the extracellular and subcellular distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins between matched normal, primary cancer, and metastatic cancer among archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast tissue samples collected from women attending the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression survival models in conjunction with a modified „purposeful selection of covariates. method were applied to determine the prognostic potential of these proteins. This study provides the first in-depth, compartmentalised analysis of the distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. As protein function and protein localisation are closely correlated, these findings provide novel insights into IGF signalling and ECM protein function during breast cancer development and progression. Distinct IGF signalling and ECM protein immunoreactivity was observed in the stroma and/or in subcellular locations in normal breast, primary cancer and metastatic cancer tissues. Analysis of the presence and location of stratifin (SFN) suggested a causal relationship in ECM remodelling events during breast cancer development and progression. The results of this study have also suggested that fibronectin (FN) and ¥â1 integrin are important for the formation of invadopodia and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. Our data also highlighted the importance of the temporal and spatial distribution of IGF induced signalling proteins in breast cancer metastasis; in particular, SFN, enhancer-of-split and hairy-related protein 2 (SHARP-2), total-akt/protein kinase B 1 (Total-AKT1), phosphorylated-akt/protein kinase B (P-AKT), extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (ERK1/2) and phosphorylated-extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (P-ERK1/2). Multivariate survival models were created from the immunohistochemical data. These models were found to fit well with these data with very high statistical confidence. Numerous prognostic confounding effects and effect modifications were identified among elements of the ECM and IGF signalling cascade and corroborate the survival models. This finding provides further evidence for the prognostic potential of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. In addition, the adjusted measures of associations obtained in this study have strengthened the validity and utility of the resulting models. The findings from this study provide insights into the biological interactions that occur during the development of breast tissue and contribute to disease progression. Importantly, these multivariate survival models could provide important prognostic and predictive indicators that assist the clinical management of breast disease, namely in the early identification of cancers with a propensity to metastasise, and/or recur following adjuvant therapy. The outcomes of this study further inform the development of new therapeutics to aid patient recovery. The findings from this study have widespread clinical application in the diagnosis of disease and prognosis of disease progression, and inform the most appropriate clinical management of individuals with breast cancer.

A hybrid model for studying spatial aspects of infectious diseases

We consider a hybrid model, created by coupling a continuum and an agent-based model of infectious disease. The framework of the hybrid model provides a mechanism to study the spread of infection at both the individual and population levels. This approach captures the stochastic spatial heterogeneity at the individual level, which is directly related to deterministic population level properties. This facilitates the study of spatial aspects of the epidemic process. A spatial analysis, involving counting the number of infectious agents in equally sized bins, reveals when the spatial domain is nonhomogeneous.

The interaction between exercise, appetite and food intake : implications for weight control

Exercise could indirectly affect body weight by exerting changes on various components of appetite control, including nutrient and taste preferences, meal size and frequency, and the drive to eat. This review summarizes the evidence on how exercise affects appetite and eating behavior and in particular answers the question, “Does exercise induce an increase in food intake to compensate for the increase in energy expenditure?” Evidence will be presented to demonstrate that there is no automatic increase in food intake in response to acute exercise and that the response to repeated exercise is variable. The review will also identify areas of further study required to explain the variability. One limitation with studies that assess the efficacy of exercise as a method of weight control is that only mean data are presented—the individual variability tends to be overlooked. Recent evidence highlights the importance of characterizing the individual variability by demonstrating exercise-induced changes in appetite. Individuals who experience lower than theoretically predicted reductions in body weight can be characterized by hedonic (eg, pleasure) and homeostatic (eg, hunger) features.

Exercise, appetite and weight management: understanding the compensatory responses in eating behaviour and how they contribute to variability in exercise-induced weight loss

Does exercise promote weight loss? One of the key problems with studies assessing the efficacy of exercise as a method of weight management and obesityis that mean data are presented and the individual variability in response is overlooked. Recent data have highlighted the need to demonstrate and characterise the individual variability in response to exercise. Do people who exercise compensate for the increase in energy expenditure via compensatory increases in hunger and food intake? The authors address the physiological, psychological and behavioural factors potentially involved in the relationship between exercise and appetite, and identify the research questions that remain unanswered. A negative consequence of the phenomena of individual variability and compensatory responses has been the focus on those who lose little weight in response to exercise; this has been used unreasonably as evidence to suggest that exercise is a futile method of controlling weight and managing obesity. Most of the evidence suggests that exercise is useful for improving body composition and health. For example, when exercise-induced mean weight loss is <1.0 kg, significant improvements in aerobic capacity (+6.3 ml/kg/min), systolic (−6.00 mm Hg) and diastolic (−3.9 mm Hg) blood pressure, waist circumference (−3.7 cm) and positive mood still occur. However, people will vary in their responses to exercise; understanding and characterising this variability will help tailor weight loss strategies to suit individuals.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.