A comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers

Young novice drivers - that is, drivers aged 16-25 years who are relatively inexperienced in driving on the road and have a novice (Learner, Provisional) driver's licence - have been overrepresented in car crash, injury and fatality statistics around the world for decades. There are numerous persistent characteristics evident in young novice driver crashes, fatalities and offences, including variables relating to the young driver themselves, broader social influences which include their passengers, the car they drive, and when and how they drive, and their risky driving behaviour in particular. Moreover, there are a range of psychosocial factors influencing the behaviour of young novice drivers, including the social influences of parents and peers, and person-related factors such as age-related factors, attitudes, and sensation seeking. Historically, a range of approaches have been developed to manage the risky driving behaviour of young novice drivers. Traditional measures predominantly relying upon education have had limited success in regulating the risky driving behaviour of the young novice driver. In contrast, interventions such as graduated driver licensing (GDL) which acknowledges young novice drivers' limitations - principally pertaining to their chronological and developmental age, and their driving inexperience - have shown to be effective in ameliorating this pervasive public health problem. In practice, GDL is a risk management tool that is designed to reduce driving at risky times (e.g., at night) or in risky driving conditions (e.g., with passengers), while still enabling novice drivers to obtain experience. In this regard, the GDL program in Queensland, Australia, was considerably enhanced in July 2007, and major additions to the program include mandated Learner practice of 100 hours recorded in a logbook, and passenger limits during night driving in the Provisional phase. Road safety researchers have also continued to consider the influential role played by the young driver's psychosocial characteristics, including psychological traits and states. In addition, whilst the majority of road safety user research is epidemiological in nature, contemporary road safety research is increasingly applying psychological and criminological theories. Importantly, such theories not only can guide young novice driver research, they can also inform the development and evaluation of countermeasures targeting their risky driving behaviour. The research is thus designed to explore the self-reported behaviours - and the personal, psychosocial, and structural influences upon the behaviours - of young novice drivers This thesis incorporates three stages of predominantly quantitative research to undertake a comprehensive investigation of the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Risky driving behaviour increases the likelihood of the young novice driver being involved in a crash which may harm themselves or other road users, and deliberate risky driving such as driving in excess of the posted speed limits is the focus of the program of research. The extant literature examining the nature of the risky behaviour of the young novice driver - and the contributing factors for this behaviour - while comprehensive, has not led to the development of a reliable instrument designed specifically to measure the risky behaviour of the young novice driver. Therefore the development and application of such a tool (the Behaviour of Young Novice Drivers Scale, or BYNDS) was foremost in the program of research. In addition to describing the driving behaviours of the young novice, a central theme of this program of research was identifying, describing, and quantifying personal, behavioural, and environmental influences upon young novice driver risky behaviour. Accordingly the 11 papers developed from the three stages of research which comprise this thesis are framed within Bandura's reciprocal determinism model which explicitly considers the reciprocal relationship between the environment, the person, and their behaviour. Stage One comprised the foundation research and operationalised quantitative and qualitative methodologies to finalise the instrument used in Stages Two and Three. The first part of Stage One involved an online survey which was completed by 761 young novice drivers who attended tertiary education institutions across Queensland. A reliable instrument for measuring the risky driving behaviour of young novices was developed (the BYNDS) and is currently being operationalised in young novice driver research in progress at the Centre for Injury Research and Prevention in Philadelphia, USA. In addition, regression analyses revealed that psychological distress influenced risky driving behaviour, and the differential influence of depression, anxiety, sensitivity to punishments and rewards, and sensation seeking propensity were explored. Path model analyses revealed that punishment sensitivity was mediated by anxiety and depression; and the influence of depression, anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity were moderated by the gender of the driver. Specifically, for males, sensation seeking propensity, depression, and reward sensitivity were predictive of self-reported risky driving, whilst for females anxiety was also influential. In the second part of Stage One, 21 young novice drivers participated in individual and small group interviews. The normative influences of parents, peers, and the Police were explicated. Content analysis supported four themes of influence through punishments, rewards, and the behaviours and attitudes of parents and friends. The Police were also influential upon the risky driving behaviour of young novices. The findings of both parts of Stage One informed the research of Stage Two. Stage Two was a comprehensive investigation of the pre-Licence and Learner experiences, attitudes, and behaviours, of young novice drivers. In this stage, 1170 young novice drivers from across Queensland completed an online or paper survey exploring their experiences, behaviours and attitudes as a pre- and Learner driver. The majority of novices did not drive before they were licensed (pre-Licence driving) or as an unsupervised Learner, submitted accurate logbooks, intended to follow the road rules as a Provisional driver, and reported practicing predominantly at the end of the Learner period. The experience of Learners in the enhanced-GDL program were also examined and compared to those of Learner drivers who progressed through the former-GDL program (data collected previously by Bates, Watson, & King, 2009a). Importantly, current-GDL Learners reported significantly more driving practice and a longer Learner period, less difficulty obtaining practice, and less offence detection and crash involvement than Learners in the former-GDL program. The findings of Stage Two informed the research of Stage Three. Stage Three was a comprehensive exploration of the driving experiences, attitudes and behaviours of young novice drivers during their first six months of Provisional 1 licensure. In this stage, 390 of the 1170 young novice drivers from Stage Two completed another survey, and data collected during Stages Two and Three allowed a longitudinal investigation of self-reported risky driving behaviours, such as GDL-specific and general road rule compliance; risky behaviour such as pre-Licence driving, crash involvement and offence detection; and vehicle ownership, paying attention to Police presence, and punishment avoidance. Whilst the majority of Learner and Provisional drivers reported compliance with GDL-specific and general road rules, 33% of Learners and 50% of Provisional drivers reported speeding by 10-20 km/hr at least occasionally. Twelve percent of Learner drivers reported pre-Licence driving, and these drivers were significantly more risky as Learner and Provisional drivers. Ten percent of males and females reported being involved in a crash, and 10% of females and 18% of males had been detected for an offence, within the first six months of independent driving. Additionally, 75% of young novice drivers reported owning their own car within six months of gaining their Provisional driver's licence. Vehicle owners reported significantly shorter Learner periods and more risky driving exposure as a Provisional driver. Paying attention to Police presence on the roads appeared normative for young novice drivers: 91% of Learners and 72% of Provisional drivers reported paying attention. Provisional drivers also reported they actively avoided the Police: 25% of males and 13% of females; 23% of rural drivers and 15% of urban drivers. Stage Three also allowed the refinement of the risky behaviour measurement tool (BYNDS) created in Stage One; the original reliable 44-item instrument was refined to a similarly reliable 36-item instrument. A longitudinal exploration of the influence of anxiety, depression, sensation seeking propensity and reward sensitivity upon the risky behaviour of the Provisional driver was also undertaken using data collected in Stages Two and Three. Consistent with the research of Stage One, structural equation modeling revealed anxiety, reward sensitivity and sensation seeking propensity predicted self-reported risky driving behaviour. Again, gender was a moderator, with only reward sensitivity predicting risky driving for males. A measurement model of Akers' social learning theory (SLT) was developed containing six subscales operationalising the four constructs of differential association, imitation, personal attitudes, and differential reinforcement, and the influence of parents and peers was captured within the items in a number of these constructs. Analyses exploring the nature and extent of the psychosocial influences of personal characteristics (step 1), Akers' SLT (step 2), and elements of the prototype/willingness model (PWM) (step 3) upon self-reported speeding by the Provisional driver in a hierarchical multiple regression model found the following significant predictors: gender (male), car ownership (own car), reward sensitivity (greater sensitivity), depression (greater depression), personal attitudes (more risky attitudes), and speeding (more speeding) as a Learner. The research findings have considerable implications for road safety researchers, policy-makers, mental health professionals and medical practitioners alike. A broad range of issues need to be considered when developing, implementing and evaluating interventions for both the intentional and unintentional risky driving behaviours of interest. While a variety of interventions have been historically utilised, including education, enforcement, rehabilitation and incentives, caution is warranted. A multi-faceted approach to improving novice road safety is more likely to be effective, and new and existing countermeasures should capitalise on the potential of parents, peers and Police to be a positive influence upon the risky behaviour of young novice drivers. However, the efficacy of some interventions remains undetermined at this time. Notwithstanding this caveat, countermeasures such as augmenting and strengthening Queensland's GDL program and targeting parents and adolescents particularly warrant further attention. The findings of the research program suggest that Queensland's current-GDL can be strengthened by increasing compliance of young novice drivers with existing conditions and restrictions. The rates of speeding reported by the young Learner driver are particularly alarming for a number of reasons. The Learner is inexperienced in driving, and travelling in excess of speed limits places them at greater risk as they are also inexperienced in detecting and responding appropriately to driving hazards. In addition, the Learner period should provide the foundation for a safe lifetime driving career, enabling the development and reinforcement of non-risky driving habits. Learners who sped reported speeding by greater margins, and at greater frequencies, when they were able to drive independently. Other strategies could also be considered to enhance Queensland's GDL program, addressing both the pre-Licence adolescent and their parents. Options that warrant further investigation to determine their likely effectiveness include screening and treatment of novice drivers by mental health professionals and/or medical practitioners; and general social skills training. Considering the self-reported pre-licence driving of the young novice driver, targeted education of parents may need to occur before their child obtains a Learner licence. It is noteworthy that those participants who reported risky driving during the Learner phase also were more likely to report risky driving behaviour during the Provisional phase; therefore it appears vital that the development of safe driving habits is encouraged from the beginning of the novice period. General education of parents and young novice drivers should inform them of the considerably-increased likelihood of risky driving behaviour, crashes and offences associated with having unlimited access to a vehicle in the early stages of intermediate licensure. Importantly, parents frequently purchase the car that is used by the Provisional driver, who typically lives at home with their parents, and therefore parents are ideally positioned to monitor the journeys of their young novice driver during this early stage of independent driving. Parents are pivotal in the development of their driving child: they are models who are imitated and are sources of attitudes, expectancies, rewards and punishments; and they provide the most driving instruction for the Learner. High rates of self-reported speeding by Learners suggests that GDL programs specifically consider the nature of supervision during the Learner period, encouraging supervisors to be vigilant to compliance with general and GDL-specific road rules, and especially driving in excess of speed limit. Attitudes towards driving are formed before the adolescent reaches the age when they can be legally licensed. Young novice drivers with risky personal attitudes towards driving reported more risky driving behaviour, suggesting that countermeasures should target such attitudes and that such interventions might be implemented before the adolescent is licensed. The risky behaviours and attitudes of friends were also found to be influential, and given that young novice drivers tend to carry their friends as their passengers, a group intervention such as provided in a school class context may prove more effective. Social skills interventions that encourage the novice to resist the negative influences of their friends and their peer passengers, and to not imitate the risky driving behaviour of their friends, may also be effective. The punishments and rewards anticipated from and administered by friends were also found to influence the self-reported risky behaviour of the young novice driver; therefore young persons could be encouraged to sanction the risky, and to reward the non-risky, driving of their novice friends. Adolescent health programs and related initiatives need to more specifically consider the risks associated with driving. Young novice drivers are also adolescents, a developmental period associated with depression and anxiety. Depression, anxiety, and sensation seeking propensity were found to be predictive of risky driving; therefore interventions targeting psychological distress, whilst discouraging the expression of sensation seeking propensity whilst driving, warrant development and trialing. In addition, given that reward sensitivity was also predictive, a scheme which rewards novice drivers for safe driving behaviour - rather than rewarding the novice through emotional and instrumental rewards for risky driving behaviour - requires further investigation. The Police were also influential in the risky driving behaviour of young novices. Young novice drivers who had been detected for an offence, and then avoided punishment, reacted differentially, with some drivers appearing to become less risky after the encounter, whilst for others their risky behaviour appeared to be reinforced and therefore was more likely to be performed again. Such drivers saw t

Design + ethics

The socio-cultural purpose of the university has been de-emphasised in recent decades, however, various community engagement projects that have been undertaken by design schools in higher education institutions are bringing this back into focus. Through the design skills of academic staff and students, a number of projects have been identified and undertaken in partnership with communities as well as the public and private sectors. The 2008 ‘Linking Karumba’ project, among others, shows that academy-based design and education professionals can contribute to social development through making good design accessible to disadvantaged communities.

Socially aware computing constructs

Every day we are confronted with social interactions with other people. Our social life is characterised by norms that manifest as attitudinal and behavioural uniformities among people. With greater awareness about our social context, we can interact more efficiently. Any theory or model of human interaction that fails to include social concepts could be suggested to lack a critical element. This paper identifies the construct of social concepts that need to be supported by future context-aw are systems from an interdisciplinary perspective. It discusses the limitations of existing context-aware systems to support social psychology theories related to the identification and membership of social groups. We argue that social norms are among the core modelling concepts that future context-aware systems need to capture with the view to support and enhance social interactions. A detailed summary of social psychology theory relevant to social computing is given, followed by a formal definition of the process with each such norm advertised and acquired. The social concepts identified in this paper could be used to simulate agent interactions imbued with social norms or use ICT to facilitate, assist, enhance or understand social interactions. They also could be used in virtual communities modelling where the social awareness of a community as well as the process of joining and exiting a community are important.

Micro-credit is not sufficient for the success of micro-enterprises at the bottom of the pyramid

This study examines the factors affecting the successful provision of micro-credit to people at the bottom of the pyramid and discusses the activities required to support entrepreneurial activities in a peri-urban African setting. The findings enable us to better understand why micro-credit, though useful, is only part of the solution, in a setting characterized by extreme resource constraints with an institutional fabric lacking the infrastructure that assists market development. We depict the crafting of new entrepreneurial activity as an ongoing process and present an emerging research agenda for future developments.

Studies of the off-field behaviours of sportspeople : are sponsors' objectives at risk?

The research reported here addresses the problem of athlete off-field behaviours as they influence sports’ sponsors, particularly the achievement of sponsorship objectives. The question arises because of incidents of sponsorship contract cancellation following news-media reporting of athletes’ off-field behaviours. Two studies are used to investigate the research question; the first establishes the content of news-media reports, and the second tests the effects of news’ reports on athlete, team and sponsor evaluations using an experimental design. Key assumptions of the research are that sponsorship objectives are principally consumer-based and mediated. Models of sponsorship argue that sponsors aim to reach and influence consumers through sponsees. Assuming this pathway exists is central to sponsorship activities. A corollary is that other mediators, in this case the news-media, may also communicate (uncontrollable) messages such that a consumer audience may be told of negative news that may then be associated with the sponsor. When sponsors cancel contracts it is assumed that their goal is to control the links between their brand and a negative referent. Balance theory is used to discuss the potential effects of negative off-field behaviours of athletes on sponsor’s objectives. Heider’s balance theory (1958) explains that individuals prefer to evaluate linked individuals or entities consistently. In the sponsorship context this presents the possibility that a negative evaluation of the athlete’s behaviour will contribute to correspondingly negative evaluations of the athlete’s team and sponsors. A content analysis (Study 1) was used to survey the types of athlete off-field behaviours commonly reported in a newspaper. In order to provide a local context for the research, articles from the Courier Mail were sampled and teams in the National Rugby League (NRL) competition were the focus of the research. The study identified nearly 2000 articles referring to the NRL competition; 258 of those refer to off-field incidents involving athletes. The various types of behaviours reported include assault, sexual assault allegations, driving under the influence of alcohol, illicit drug use, breaches of club rules, and positive off-field activities (i.e., charitable activities). An experiment (Study 2) tested three news’ article stimuli developed from the behaviours identified in Study 1 in a between-subjects design. A measure of Identification with the Team was used as a covariate variable in the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance analysis. Social identity theory suggests that when an individual identifies with a group, their attitudes and behaviours towards both in- and out-group members are modified. Use of Identification with the Team as a covariate acknowledges that respondents will evaluate behaviours differently according to the attribution of those behaviours to an in- or out-group member. Findings of the research suggest that the news’ article stimuli have significant, large effects on evaluations of athlete off-field behaviour and athlete Likability. Consistent with pretest results, charitable fundraising is regarded as extremely positive; the athlete, correspondingly, is likable. Assault is evaluated as extremely negative, and the athlete as unlikable. DUI scores reveal that the athlete’s behaviour is very negative; however, the athlete’s likability was evaluated as neutral. Treatment group does not produce any significant effects on team or sponsor variables. This research also finds that Identification with the Team has significant, large effects on team variables (Attitude toward the Brand and Corporate Image). Identification also has a significant large effect on athlete Likability, but not on Attitude toward the Act. Identification with the Team does not produce any significant effects on sponsor variables. The results of this research suggest that sponsor’s consumer-based objectives are not threatened by newspaper reports linking athlete off-field behaviour with their brand. Evaluations of sponsor variables (Attitude toward the Sponsor’s Brand and Corporate Image) were consistently positive. Variance in that data, however, cannot be attributed to experimental stimuli or Identification with the Team. These results argue that respondents may regard sponsorships, in principle, as good. Although it is good news for sponsors that negative evaluations of athletes will not produce correspondingly negative evaluations of consumer-based sponsorship objectives, the results indicate problems for sponsorship managers. The failure of Identification with the Team to explain sponsor variable variance indicates that the sponsor has not been evaluated as a linked entity in a relationship with the sporting team and athlete in this research. This result argues that the sponsee-mediated affective communication path that sponsors aim use to communicate with desirable publics is not necessarily a path available to them.

Participatory approach to support community development of rural craftspeople

This paper presents a case study of the participatory project in the Jombang glass bead craft industry. Economic instability has brought significant business challenges in the community. The involvement of outsiders to collaborate with craftspeople in order to support business innovation as well as strengthen the social capital in the community is essential. However, facilitating a rural community to formulate and implement bottom-up planning needs an integrated approach. In this paper, we explain a participatory project in the rural craftspeople community that resulted in a collective action. The project aimed at uniting and empowering rural craftspeople focusing on the unique skills and knowledge of participants. There are some aspects influencing the success of collective action: the ability to understand the local political situation; the role of facilitators to respect and support the unique potential of craftspeople; and the economic benefit of the program.

An investigation of factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam

Background: In diabetes care, health care professionals need to provide support for their patients. In order to provide good diabetes self-management support for adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam, it is important that health care professionals in Vietnam understand the factors influencing diabetes self-management among these people. However, knowledge about factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam is limited. Objectives: This study aimed to investigate factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam. Methodology: A cross-sectional survey with convenience sampling was conducted on 198 adults with type 2 diabetes in VietnamData collection was administeted via interview. Descriptive statistics, simple correlation statistics and structural equation modelling statistics were used for data analysis. Results: Adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam had limited diabetes knowledge (Median = 6.0). The majority of the study participants (72.7%) believed that performing diabetes self-management activities was very important or extremely important for controlling their blood glucose levels and for preventing complications from diabetes; about half usually received support from their family and friends’ (48.5%), and around two thirds rarely received support from their health care providers (68.2%). Many of the participants (41.4%) had limited confidence to perform diabetes management activities. The practices of diabetes self-management were limited among the study population (Mean = 96.7, SD = 19.4). Diabetes knowledge (β = 0.17, p < .001), belief in treatment effectiveness (β = 0.13, p < .01), family and friends’ support (β = 0.13, p < .001), health care providers’ support (β = 0.27, p < .001) and diabetes management self-efficacy (β = 0.43, p < .001) directly influenced their diabetes self-management. Diabetes knowledge, and family and friends’ support also indirectly influenced diabetes self-management among these people through their belief in treatment effectiveness and their diabetes management self-efficacy (p < .05). Conclusion: Findings in this study indicated that health care professionals should provide diabetes self-management support for adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam in the future. The adapted theory-based model of factors influencing diabetes self-management among adults with type 2 diabetes in Vietnam found in this study could be a useful framework to develop this supporting program.

Convergence in the gender wage gap in Australia over the 1980s : identifying the role of counteracting forces via the Juhn, Murphy and Pierce decomposition

The paper utilises the Juhn Murphy and Pierce (1991) decomposition to shed light on the pattern of slow male-female wage convergance in Australia over the 1980s. The analysis allows one to distinguish between the role of wage structure and genderspecific effects. The central question addressed is whether rising wage inequality counteracted the forces of increased female investment in labour market skills, i.e. education and experience. The conclusion is that in contrast to the US and the UK, Australian women do not appear to have been swimming against a tide of adverse wage structure changes.

A portrayal of new entrants into the Australian economy (Entrepreneurial individuals and ventures)

This paper provides a descriptive overview of the venture creation in Australia, those who participate in it and the types of firms they build. Findings of interest in this paper include: • The majority of business founders (89 per cent) state the motivation to start a new business is opportunity-driven rather than necessity driven. • The extent of under-representation of women business founders in Australia appears to be lower than international comparisons and has decreased over time. • Australian business founders tend to possess significant ‘human capital’ many are university-educated, and large shares have different types of experience that may benefit the start-up. • The major industries for start-up activities are Retailing; various service industries (Business Consulting; Health, Education and Social; other Consumer services); Construction, Manufacturing, and Agriculture. • A large proportion of CAUSEE respondents (49 per cent nascent firms and 46 per cent young firms) are members of start-up teams, which is similar to international comparisons.

New venture internationalisation

This paper investigates the international background and international activities of Australian start-up firms. Findings of interest in this paper include: • Due to their small scale, young age and distant location firm founders then to favour the domestic market rather that engage internationally. • Firms that do engage internationally tend to do so at the very early stages of venture creation. • Firms that do engage in exporting activities tend to rely on intermediaries rather than more direct forms of export actions.

Identifying important success factors in new venture creation

This paper seeks to uncover the factors that lead to a successful entrepreneurial experience and or venture. Findings of interest in this paper include: • A venture’s initial aspirations are a double edged sword. Ambition may lead to improved performance by striving to reach harder goals. Harder goals are more difficult therefore this may lead to some dissatisfaction, and possibly abandonment of the venture. • Venture legitimacy is important to establish where possible. Firms that formalize their legal form are more successful, as are those set up a shop-front in order to makes sales. • Increased use of technology and higher levels of novelty does not guarantee success early on. Firms of this nature have longer processes, and attempting to create brand new markets is difficult to achieve. At the same time developing your own technology and securing this intellectual property is important for success. • Having goals to work towards and business planning may be useful, but only if the plan is actively revised. Just having a business plan does not matter. Business plans are more useful as a thinking tool than as a blueprint for action. It is the process of thinking through while reviewing the plan that provides the benefit, not following its instruction to the letter.

Guanxi as complex adaptive system : definition, description and underlying principles

Guanxi has become a common term in the wider business community and has attracted an increasing attention of researchers. However, a consistent understanding of the concept continues to be elusive. We critically review the extant guanxi literature to identify the major inconsistencies in the way guanxi is currently conceptualized and develop a conceptualization of guanxi which views guanxi as a complex adaptive system formed by the strategic establishing, evolving, utilizing, and maintaining of personal relationships based upon social norms of trust and reciprocal obligation unique to the Chinese culture. This study contributes to research of guanxi and to the field of Chinese management in several ways. First, we identify four levels of inconsistency surrounding the conceptualization of guanxi in the literature, thus clarifying the current common sources of confusion. Second, this study deconstructs the level and core values of guanxi to provide a more transparent picture, enabling researchers to develop more robust measures of guanxi. Finally, we made progress towards a more comprehensive understanding of guanxi by introducing the complex adaptive system perspective into the guanxi research.

ACE research vignette 026 : Do Entrepreneurs’ Personal Networks Influence Small Firm Performance?

This series of research vignettes is aimed at sharing current and interesting research findings from our team of international Entrepreneurship researchers. This vignette, written by Dr. Rene Bakker, examines the evidence on the effects of a entrepreneurs’ personal networks on small firm performance, and the factors that moderate this relationship.

Board age and gender diversity : a test of competing linear and curvilinear predictions

The inconsistent findings of past board diversity research demand a test of competing linear and curvilinear diversity–performance predictions. This research focuses on board age and gender diversity, and presents a positive linear prediction based on resource dependence theory, a negative linear prediction based on social identity theory, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear prediction based on the integration of resource dependence theory with social identity theory. The predictions were tested using archival data on 288 large organizations listed on the Australian Securities Exchange, with a 1-year time lag between diversity (age and gender) and performance (employee productivity and return on assets). The results indicate a positive linear relationship between gender diversity and employee productivity, a negative linear relationship between age diversity and return on assets, and an inverted U-shaped curvilinear relationship between age diversity and return on assets. The findings provide additional evidence on the business case for board gender diversity and refine the business case for board age diversity.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.