Improving the risk concept: a revision of Arrow-Pratt theory in the context of controlled dynamic stochastic environments

In the literature on risk, one generally assume that uncertainty is uniformly distributed over the entire working horizon, when the absolute risk-aversion index is negative and constant. From this perspective, the risk is totally exogenous, and thus independent of endogenous risks. The classic procedure is "myopic" with regard to potential changes in the future behavior of the agent due to inherent random fluctuations of the system. The agent's attitude to risk is rigid. Although often criticized, the most widely used hypothesis for the analysis of economic behavior is risk-neutrality. This borderline case must be envisaged with prudence in a dynamic stochastic context. The traditional measures of risk-aversion are generally too weak for making comparisons between risky situations, given the dynamic �complexity of the environment. This can be highlighted in concrete problems in finance and insurance, context for which the Arrow-Pratt measures (in the small) give ambiguous.

In Search of a theory of debt management

A growing literature integrates theories of debt management into models of optimal fiscal policy. One promising theory argues that the composition of government debt should be chosen so that fluctuations in the market value of debt offset changes in expected future deficits. This complete market approach to debt management is valid even when the government only issues non-contingent bonds. A number of authors conclude from this approach that governments should issue long term debt and invest in short term assets. We argue that the conclusions of this approach are too fragile to serve as a basis for policy recommendations. This is because bonds at different maturities have highly correlated returns, causing the determination of the optimal portfolio to be ill-conditioned. To make this point concrete we examine the implications of this approach to debt management in various models, both analytically and using numerical methods calibrated to the US economy. We find the complete market approach recommends asset positions which are huge multiples of GDP. Introducing persistent shocks or capital accumulation only worsens this problem. Increasing the volatility of interest rates through habits partly reduces the size of these simulations we find no presumption that governments should issue long term debt ? policy recommendations can be easily reversed through small perturbations in the specification of shocks or small variations in the maturity of bonds issued. We further extend the literature by removing the assumption that governments every period costlessly repurchase all outstanding debt. This exacerbates the size of the required positions, worsens their volatility and in some cases produces instability in debt holdings. We conclude that it is very difficult to insulate fiscal policy from shocks by using the complete markets approach to debt management. Given the limited variability of the yield curve using maturities is a poor way to substitute for state contingent debt. The result is the positions recommended by this approach conflict with a number of features that we believe are important in making bond markets incomplete e.g allowing for transaction costs, liquidity effects, etc.. Until these features are all fully incorporated we remain in search of a theory of debt management capable of providing robust policy insights.

Heritability, determinants and reference values of renal length: a family-based population study.

OBJECTIVES: In this population-based study, reference values were generated for renal length, and the heritability and factors associated with kidney length were assessed. METHODS: Anthropometric parameters and renal ultrasound measurements were assessed in randomly selected nuclear families of European ancestry (Switzerland). The adjusted narrow sense heritability of kidney size parameters was estimated by maximum likelihood assuming multivariate normality after power transformation. Gender-specific reference centiles were generated for renal length according to body height in the subset of non-diabetic non-obese participants with normal renal function. RESULTS: We included 374 men and 419 women (mean ± SD, age 47 ± 18 and 48 ± 17 years, BMI 26.2 ± 4 and 24.5 ± 5 kg/m(2), respectively) from 205 families. Renal length was 11.4 ± 0.8 cm in men and 10.7 ± 0.8 cm in women; there was no difference between right and left renal length. Body height, weight and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were positively associated with renal length, kidney function negatively, age quadratically, whereas gender and hypertension were not. The adjusted heritability estimates of renal length and volume were 47.3 ± 8.5 % and 45.5 ± 8.8 %, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: The significant heritability of renal length and volume highlights the familial aggregation of this trait, independently of age and body size. Population-based references for renal length provide a useful guide for clinicians. KEY POINTS: • Renal length and volume are heritable traits, independent of age and size. • Based on a European population, gender-specific reference values/percentiles are provided for renal length. • Renal length correlates positively with body length and weight. • There was no difference between right and left renal lengths in this study. • This negates general teaching that the left kidney is larger and longer.

Raising the Level of Moral Thinking among Managers Will Not Help. Kohlberg's Conventionality and Systemic Ethical Flaws in Business

Business ethicists often assume that unethical behavior arises when individuals deviate from the norms and responsibilities that are institutionalized to frame economic activities. People's greed motivates them to violate the rules of the game. In Kohlberg's terms, it is assumed that such actors make decisions in a preconventional way and act opportunistically. In this article, we propose an alternative interpretation of deviant behavior, arguing that such behavior does not result from a lack of conventional moral guidance but rather from the fact that characteristics attributed to preconventional morality by Kohlberg - the purely incentive and punishment driven opportunistic morality - have become the conventionalized morality. The prevailing norms that economic actors have internalized as their yardstick are those of the preconventional Homo economicus. Not the deviation from, but the compliance with the rules of the game explains many forms of harmful and illegal decisions made in corporations.

Elements of algebraic geometry and the positive theory of partially commutative groups

The first main result of the paper is a criterion for a partially commutative group G to be a domain. It allows us to reduce the study of algebraic sets over G to the study of irreducible algebraic sets, and reduce the elementary theory of G (of a coordinate group over G) to the elementary theories of the direct factors of G (to the elementary theory of coordinate groups of irreducible algebraic sets). Then we establish normal forms for quantifier-free formulas over a non-abelian directly indecomposable partially commutative group H. Analogously to the case of free groups, we introduce the notion of a generalised equation and prove that the positive theory of H has quantifier elimination and that arbitrary first-order formulas lift from H to H * F, where F is a free group of finite rank. As a consequence, the positive theory of an arbitrary partially commutative group is decidable.

A general construction of internal sheaves in algebraic set theory

We present a solution to the problem of defining a counterpart in Algebraic Set Theory of the construction of internal sheaves in Topos Theory. Our approach is general in that we consider sheaves as determined by Lawvere-Tierney coverages, rather than by Grothen-dieck coverages, and assume only a weakening of the axioms for small maps originally introduced by Joyal and Moerdijk, thus subsuming the existing topos-theoretic results.

Rational first integrals in the Darboux theory of integrability in Cn

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Weighted limits in simplicial homotopy theory

We extend the theory of Quillen adjunctions by combining ideas of homotopical algebra and of enriched category theory. Our results describe how the formulas for homotopy colimits of Bousfield and Kan arise from general formulas describing the derived functor of the weighted colimit functor.

Olympic education experiences: the sponsorship in the promotion of Olympic values

This text was presented at the 16th International Seminar on Olympic Studies for Postgraduate Students that was organised by the International Olympic Academy in Ancient Olympia, from 1st to 30th July 2008. First here are reported, fundamental concepts on Olympics such as the Olympic values and the educational mandate of Pierre de Coubertin, the Olympic brand and symbols, the sponsorship and the Olympic partner programme. Then there is a chapter regarding the Top sponsors educational initiatives on Olympic values, and specially, describing the Olympic sponsors involvement in education and Top sponsors educational activities. And finally, the author analyses the sponsorship role in the promotion of Olympic Values Education, providing conclusions, comments on future and perspectives and some recommendations.

L' Aprenentatge basat en problemes a través de casos clínics simulats. Una proposta metodològica de disseny i avaluació docent

RESUM Les exigències actuals de la professió de d’infermeria requereixen que la docència vagi orientada a interrelacionar els diferents rols a desenvolupar enla pràctica diària, per adquirir experiència en l’aprenentatge i així augmentar la qualitat de les cures d’infermeria. Per assolir aquest objectiu és important l’aprenentatge basat enproblemes. Aquest pretén en primer lloc que els estudiants aprenguin allò que permet desenvolupar-se enla vida professional de la manera més natural possible a partir d’una idea clara i profunda de l’evidència sobre la que s’ha d’actuar. Amb aquesta finalitat es vandissenyar casos clínics amb uns objectius que requerien la integració de coneixements, actituds i valors, en diferents fases a desenvolupar en un període de temps predeterminat. També ens vam proposar una estratègia docent que permetés a l’estudiant incorporar el coneixement científic que dóna suport a la pràctica assistencial per aproximar teoria i pràctica. Es pretén que els estudiants busquin una resposta basada en la millor evidència científica disponible, per prendre una decisió respecte a les cures del pacient. Els objectius de l’estudi són: Avaluar globalment l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos Avaluar com els estudiants valoren la integració del model d’infermeria i del procés d’atenció en l’aprenentatge basat en la simulació de casos. Valorar les sensacions percebudes per l’estudiant durant la simulació del cas. Valorar l’actitud d el’estudiant en relació a la incorporació de l’evidència científica per una millora en la pràctica clínica. Avaluar el grau de dificultat manifestat per l’estudiant en relació al procés de documentació. Avaluar la idonietat de l’argumentació i la decisió de l’estudiant a la pregunta formulada en el cas clínic. Metodologia: L’assignatura d’Infermeria Medicoquirúrgica. Adult I del Departament d’Infermeria de la Universitat de Vic, va iniciar una experiència d’aprenentatge basat en la resolució de problemes, amb estudiants de 2on curs. Les professores responsables dels seminaris van realitzar una avaluació de l’experiència a través d’una enquesta. Aquesta es responia al cap d’un mes de la simulació al laboratori, quan es contrastaven els resultats obtinguts en aquesta entre professores i estudiants després de visualitzar la gravació feta durant el mateix. En el context del seminari de simulació de casos, es va introduir una pregunta/problema, a partir de la que els estudiants, en grup, havien de documentar-se amb el suport d’una guia. Per valorar l’actitud davant aquesta pregunta/problema es va dissenyar un qustionari tipus Likert. L’avaluació del grau de dificultat s’ha registrat a través d’unes escales de puntuació. Per a l’avaluació de la decisió presa, es van valorar les síntesis resum entregades en els treballs escrits pels diferents grups. Resultats: La realització de la simulació en el laboratori va ser avaluada per un alt percentatge d’estudiants (68,8%) amb puntuacions entre 6 i 8 mentre que un 26,6% la van situar en tre 9 i 10, només un 4,7 % la van puntuar amb 5. La integració del model d’infermeria va ser valorada pel 86% amb una puntuació entre 7 i 10. La valoració global de la simulació va ser qualificada pels estudiants amb una puntuació de 8 (34,4%) seguida d’un 28,1% amb una consideració de 7. Un 7,2% van puntuar entre 9 i 10. El 93,3% van assegurar que conèixer les fonts documentals els serviria per millorar l’assistència, el 86,7% esperen obtenir arguments sòlids respecte les seves desicions si la documentació consultada és de qualitat. Un 77,8% dels estudiants consideren estar més satisfets al saber incorporar la presa de decisions basada en evidències. Respecte el grau de dificultat en el procés de documentació la dificultat més gran la presenten en com buscar en les bases de dades de referències bibliogràfiques. Conclusions: L’aprenentatge dels estudiants a través de la simulació de casos és una estratègia vàlida que l’estudiant valora positivament al mateix temps que permet desenvolupar habilitats per a la pràctica professional. L’estratègia docent dissenyada per integrar les evidències en la presa de decisions es considera positiva, no obstant, després d’analitzar els resultats, s’han de modificar alguns aspectes per a la seva millora; tutoritzar per a millorar el procés de documentació i incidir més en la crítica i reflexió, de manera que les troballes de la investigació siguin canalitzades cap a la pràctica.

The new role of the mass media in the construction of sport and Olympic values

This paper was presented in the International Symposium on Toward the Creation of New-Sport Cultures, undertaken in Osaka, Japan, in January 28, 1996. The main purpose is to make an interpretation of the cultural values of sport and Olympism in contemporary society, considering the enormous influence that the media have on them.

Dividends and weighted values in games with externalities

We consider cooperative environments with externalities (games in partition function form) and provide a recursive definition of dividends for each coalition and any partition of the players it belongs to. We show that with this definition and equal sharing of these dividends the averaged sum of dividends for each player, over all the coalitions that contain the player, coincides with the corresponding average value of the player. We then construct weighted Shapley values by departing from equal division of dividends and finally, for each such value, provide a bidding mechanism implementing it.

Solovian and New Growth Theory from the Perspective of Allyn Young on Macroeconomic Increasing Returns

This paper evaluates, from an Allyn Youngian perspective, the neoclassical Solow model of growth and the associated empirical estimates of the sources of growth based on it. It attempts to clarify Young’s particular concept of generalised or macroeconomic “increasing returns” to show the limitations of a model of growth based on an assumption that the aggregate production function is characterised by constant returns to scale but “augmented” by exogenous technical progress. Young’s concept of endogenous, self-sustaining growth is also shown to differ in important respects (including in its policy implications) from modern endogenous growth theory.

A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.

A Salience Theory of Choice Errors

We study a psychologically based foundation for choice errors. The decision maker applies a preference ranking after forming a 'consideration set' prior to choosing an alternative. Membership of the consideration set is determined both by the alternative specific salience and by the rationality of the agent (his general propensity to consider all alternatives). The model turns out to include a logit formulation as a special case. In general, it has a rich set of implications both for exogenous parameters and for a situation in which alternatives can a¤ect their own salience (salience games). Such implications are relevant to assess the link between 'revealed' preferences and 'true' preferences: for example, less rational agents may paradoxically express their preference through choice more truthfully than more rational agents.