PCR detection of multiple human herpesvirus DNA in saliva from HIV-infected individuals in Teresina, State of Piauí, Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Human herpesviruses are frequently associated with orofacial diseases in humans (HSV-1, EBV, CMV and HHV-8), some can also cause systemic disease (CMV and HHV-8). The transmission of these viruses occurs by contact with infected secretions, especially saliva. Human immunodeficiency virus infection is associated with an increased risk of HHVs and related diseases. METHODS: This work aimed to detect HSV-1, EBV, CMV and HHV-8 DNA in saliva of HIV-infected patients from Teresina, northeast Brazil, by PCR and compare these findings with age and sex matched HIV-seronegative individuals. RESULTS: No difference in prevalence was verified between HHV detection in the saliva of HIV-seropositive individuals and controls. The individual frequencies of these viruses in these two populations were different. HIV seropositivity correlated positively with the presence of CMV (OR: 18.2, p= 0.00032) and EBV (OR: 3.44, p= 0.0081). No association between CD4 counts and the prevalence of HHVs in the saliva was observed; however, a strong association was determined between seropositivity and the presence of multiple HHV DNAs in saliva (OR: 4.83, p = 0.0028). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest the asymptomatic salivary shedding of HHVs is a common event between HIV-seropositive and seronegative individuals from Teresina, Piauí, Brazil, and, especially for HIV-seropositive patients, saliva is a risk factor for the acquisition/transmission of multiple HHVs.

The influence of menopausal status on bone turnover and disease control in breast cancer patients with metastatic bone disease treated with chemotherapy plus zoledronic acid : an exploratory retrospective cohort study

RESUMO: Introdução: Uma meta-análise recente demonstrou que uso adjuvante de ácido zoledrónico (AZ) em mulheres pós-menopáusicas com cancro da mama precoce (CM) conduz a redução do risco de morte por CM em 17%. Investigámos o efeito do estado hormonal (pré [PrM] vs pós-menopausa tardia [PoM]) na remodelação óssea e controlo de doença em mulheres com CM e metástases ósseas (MO) tratadas com AZ e quimioterapia (QT). Métodos: Neste estudo de coorte retrospetivo, colhemos variáveis clinico-patológicas e quantificámos o telopéptido N-terminal (NTX) urinário e marcadores tumorais (MT) séricos em mulheres com CM e MO tratadas com QT e AZ. As doentes foram divididas em PrM (<45 anos) e PoM (>60 anos). Endpoints do estudo: variação do NTX, CA15.3 e CEA nos meses 3, 6 e 9, tempo até falência de QT de primeira-linha e sobrevivência. Quando apropriado foram usados os testes de Wilcoxon rank-sum, modelo de efeitos lineares mistos, teste log-rank e modelo de Cox. Resultados: Quarenta doentes foram elegíveis para análise (8 PrM e 32 PoM). Depois da introdução de AZ e QT, os níveis de NTX e MT caíram no coorte global. O perfil de resposta não diferiu entre grupos no mês 3 ou em tempos posteriores (valor-p para interação tempo-estado hormonal no mês 3=0.957). Ademais, o perfil de resposta dos MT também não diferiu entre grupos. O tempo mediano até falência de primeira-linha de QT em PrM e PoM foi de 15.2 e 17.4 meses, respetivamente. Não foi identificada diferença significativa entre grupos, quer em análise univariada quer após controlo para envolvimento visceral (p=0.399 e 0.469, respetivamente). Igualmente, não houve diferenças em termos de sobrevivência. Conclusões: Neste coorte, não foram identificadas diferenças no controlo de NTX ou MT em função do estado menopausico. Igualmente, não foi identificada diferença no tempo até falência de primeira-linha de CT ou sobrevivência.----------- ABSTRACT: Background: A recent meta-analysis showed that the adjuvant use of zoledronic acid (ZA) in postmenopausal women with early breast cancer (BC) leads to a reduction in the risk of breast cancer death by 17%. We investigated the effect of the hormonal status (pre [PrM] vs late post menopause [PoM]) on bone turnover and disease control among women with BC and boné metastases (BM) treated with ZA and chemotherapy (CT). Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we collected clinicopathologic variables, urinary Nterminal telopeptide (NTX) and serum tumor marker levels from women with BC and BM treated with CT and ZA. Patients were divided in PrM (<45 years) and PoM (>60 years). Study endpoints were NTX, CA15.3 and CEA variation at 3, 6 and 9 months, and time to first-line CT failure and survival. We performed multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models to assess the variation of repeated measures and cox regression models for time to event outcomes. Results: Forty patients were eligible for analysis (8 PrM and 32 PoM). After introduction of ZA and CT, NTX and tumor markers declined in the overall cohort. Response profile was similar between menopausal groups at month 3 and at later time points (p-value for time-hormonal status interaction at month 3=0.957). Furthermore, tumor markers response profile was also equal between groups. Median time to first-line CT failure in PrM and PoM women was 15.2 and 17.4 months, respectively. No significant difference between groups was found, either using a univariate analysis or after controlling for visceral disease involvement (p=0.399 and 0.469, respectively). Likewise, no differences in survival were found. Conclusions: In this cohort, no differences were found in terms of NTX or tumor markers control according to menopausal status. Similarly, no difference in time to first-line CT failure or survival was found.

Positive serology for viral hepatitis and donor self-exclusion in Southern Brazil

Introduction Despite the great advances in serological testing for transfusion-transmitted infections, the selection of blood donors by blood bank operators remains the only way to avoid transmission within the testing window period. Part of this selection is the self-exclusion form, on which the donors can exclude their blood from donation without any explanation. This study assessed the clinical and epidemiological characteristics related to positivity for viral hepatitis and to the use of the confidential self-exclusion (CSE) form. Methods This transversal study analyzed the data collected from blood donors' files in a hospital in Southern Brazil. Univariate and multivariate analyses identified the clinical and epidemiological variables related to positive serologies of viral hepatitis and to whether the donor was self-excluded. Results Of the 3,180 donors included in this study, 0.1% tested positive for HBsAg, 2.1% for anti-HBc, and 0.9% for anti-HCV. When the 93 donors with positive serologies for viral hepatitis were compared with those who were negative, a greater proportion of the positive serology group was found to have had a history of blood transfusions (OR=4.908; 95%CI=1.628 - 14.799; p<0.01), had repeatedly donated (OR=2.147; 95%CI=1.236 - 3.729; p<0.01), and used the CSE form for self-exclusion (OR=7.139; 95%CI=2.045 - 24.923; p<0.01). No variables were independently associated with self-exclusion. Conclusions A history of blood transfusion, repeated donations, and self-exclusion are factors that should be considered during viral hepatitis screenings in blood banks.

Avaliação económica em transplantação renal : abordagem estratégica do processo de doação e análise de custo-utilidade do programa de transplantação renal versus hemodiálise

SUMÁRIO - O desafio atual da Saúde Pública é assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira do sistema de saúde. Em ambiente de recursos escassos, as análises económicas aplicadas à prestação dos cuidados de saúde são um contributo para a tomada de decisão que visa a maximização do bem-estar social sujeita a restrição orçamental. Portugal é um país com 10,6 milhões de habitantes (2011) com uma incidência e prevalência elevadas de doença renal crónica estadio 5 (DRC5), respetivamente, 234 doentes por milhão de habitantes (pmh) e 1.600 doentes/pmh. O crescimento de doenças associadas às causas de DRC, nomeadamente, diabetes Mellitus e hipertensão arterial, antecipam uma tendência para o aumento do número de doentes. Em 2011, dos 17.553 doentes em tratamento substitutivo renal, 59% encontrava-se em programa de hemodiálise (Hd) em centros de diálise extra-hospitalares, 37% viviam com um enxerto renal funcionante e 4% estavam em diálise peritoneal (SPN, 2011). A lista ativa para transplante (Tx) renal registava 2.500 doentes (SPN 2009). O Tx renal é a melhor modalidade terapêutica pela melhoria da sobrevida, qualidade de vida e relação custo-efetividade, mas a elegibilidade para Tx e a oferta de órgãos condicionam esta opção. Esta investigação desenvolveu-se em duas vertentes: i) determinar o rácio custo-utilidade incremental do Tx renal comparado com a Hd; ii) avaliar a capacidade máxima de dadores de cadáver em Portugal, as características e as causas de morte dos dadores potenciais a nível nacional, por hospital e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT), e analisar o desempenho da rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx. Realizou-se um estudo observacional/não interventivo, prospetivo e analítico que incidiu sobre uma coorte de doentes em Hd que foi submetida a Tx renal. O tempo de seguimento mínimo foi de um ano e máximo de três anos. No início do estudo, colheram-se dados sociodemográficos e clínicos em 386 doentes em Hd, elegíveis para Tx renal. A qualidade de vida relacionada com a saúde (QVRS) foi avaliada nos doentes em Hd (tempo 0) e nos transplantados, aos três, seis, 12 meses, e depois, anualmente. Incluíram-se os doentes que por falência do enxerto renal transitaram para Hd. Na sua medição, utilizou-se um instrumento baseado em preferências da população, o EuroQol-5D, que permite o posterior cálculo dos QALY. Num grupo de 82 doentes, a QVRS em Hd foi avaliada em dois tempos de resposta o que permitiu a análise da sua evolução. Realizou-se uma análise custo-utilidade do Tx renal comparado com a Hd na perspetiva da sociedade. Identificaram-se os custos diretos, médicos e não médicos, e as alterações de produtividade em Hd e Tx renal. Incluíram-se os custos da colheita de órgãos, seleção dos candidatos a Tx renal e follow-up dos dadores vivos. Cada doente transplantado foi utilizado como controle de si próprio em diálise. Avaliou-se o custo médio anual em programa de Hd crónica relativo ao ano anterior à Tx renal. Os custos do Tx foram avaliados prospetivamente. Considerou-se como horizonte temporal o ciclo de vida nas duas modalidades. Usaram-se taxas de atualização de 0%, 3% e 5% na atualização dos custos e QALY e efetuaram-se análises de sensibilidade one way. Entre 2008 e 2010, 65 doentes foram submetidos a Tx renal. Registaram-se, prospetivamente, os resultados em saúde incluíndo os internamentos e os efeitos adversos da imunossupressão, e o consumo dos recursos em saúde. Utilizaram-se modelos de medidas repetidas na avaliação da evolução da QVRS e modelos de regressão múltipla na análise da associação da QVRS e dos custos do transplante com as características basais dos doentes e os eventos clínicos. Comparativamente à Hd, observou-se melhoria da utilidade ao 3º mês de Tx e a qualidade de vida aferida pela escala EQ-VAS melhorou em todos os tempos de observação após o Tx renal. O custo médio da Hd foi de 32.567,57€, considerado uniforme ao longo do tempo. O custo médio do Tx renal foi de 60.210,09€ no 1º ano e 12.956,77€ nos anos seguintes. O rácio custo-utilidade do Tx renal vs Hd crónica foi de 2.004,75€/QALY. A partir de uma sobrevivência do enxerto de dois anos e cinco meses, o Tx associou-se a poupança dos custos. Utilizaram-se os dados nacionais dos Grupos de Diagnóstico Homogéneos e realizou-se um estudo retrospectivo que abrangeu as mortes ocorridas em 34 hospitais com colheita de órgãos, em 2006. Considerou-se como dador potencial o indivíduo com idade entre 1-70 anos cuja morte ocorrera a nível hospitalar, e que apresentasse critérios de adequação à doação de rim. Analisou-se a associação dos dadores potenciais com características populacionais e hospitalares. O desempenho das organizações de colheita de órgãos foi avaliado pela taxa de conversão (rácio entre os dadores potenciais e efetivos) e pelo número de dadores potenciais por milhão de habitantes a nível nacional, regional e por Gabinete Coordenador de Colheita e Transplantação (GCCT). Identificaram-se 3.838 dadores potenciais dos quais 608 apresentaram códigos da Classificação Internacional de Doenças, 9.ª Revisão, Modificações Clínicas (CID- 9-MC) que, com maior frequência, evoluem para a morte cerebral. O modelo logit para dados agrupados identificou a idade, o rácio da lotação em Unidades de Cuidados Intensivos e lotação de agudos, existência de GCCT e de Unidade de Transplantação, e mortalidade por acidente de trabalho como fatores preditivos da conversão dum dador potencial em efetivo e através das estimativas do modelo logit quantificou-se a probabilidade dessa conversão. A doação de órgãos deve ser assumida como uma prioridade e as autoridades em saúde devem assegurar o financiamento dos hospitais com programas de doação, evitando o desperdício de órgãos para transplantação, enquanto um bem público e escasso. A colheita de órgãos deve ser considerada uma opção estratégica da atividade hospitalar orientada para a organização e planeamento de serviços que maximizem a conversão de dadores potenciais em efetivos incluindo esse critério como medida de qualidade e efetividade do desempenho hospitalar. Os resultados deste estudo demonstram que: 1) o Tx renal proporciona ganhos em saúde, aumento da sobrevida e qualidade de vida, e poupança de custos; 2) em Portugal, a taxa máxima de eficácia da conversão dos dadores cadavéricos em dadores potenciais está longe de ser atingida. O investimento na rede de colheita de órgãos para Tx é essencial para assegurar a sustentabilidade financeira e promover a qualidade, eficiência e equidade dos cuidados em saúde prestados na DRC5.

A rapid and simple method to detect ESBL in Enterobacter cloacae based on MIC of cefepime

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to identify a rapid and simple phenotypic method for extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL) detection in Enterobacter cloacae. METHODS: A total of 79 consecutive, non-repeated samples of E. cloacae were evaluated. Four phenotypic methods were applied for ESBL detection, results were compared to multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) as the gold standard reference method: 1) ceftazidime and cefotaxime disks with and without clavulanate, both with boronic acid added; 2) disk approximation using cefepime and amoxicillin/clavulanate; 3) ESBL screening by minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) ≥ 16µg/mL and 4) by MIC ≥ 2µg/mL for cefepime. RESULTS: Method 4 showed the best combination of sensitivity (100%) and specificity (94%). CONCLUSIONS: MIC ≥ 2µg/mL for cefepime would be very useful for the phenotypic detection of ESBL in samples of E. cloacae.

Intraventricular hemorrhage in very low birth weight infants: associated risk factors and outcome in the neonatal period

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a severe complication in very low birth weight (VLBW) newborns (NB). With the purpose of studying the incidence of IVH, the associated risk factors, and the outcomes for these neonates, we studied all the VLBW infants born in our neonatal unit. Birth weight, gestational age, presence of perinatal asphyxia, mechanical ventilation, length of hospitalization, apnea crisis, hydrocephalus, and periventricular leukomalacia were analyzed. The diagnosis of IVH was based on ultrasound scan studies (Papile's classification) performed until the tenth day of life and repeated weekly in the presence of abnormalities. Sixty-seven/101 neonates were studied. The mortality rate was 30.6% (31/101) and the incidence of IVH was 29.8% (20/67) : 70% grade I, 20% grade III and 10% grade IV. The incidence of IVH in NB <1,000 g was 53.8% (p = 0.035) and for gestational age <30 weeks was 47.3% (p = 0.04), both considered risk factors for IVH. The length of hospitalization (p = 0.00015) and mechanical ventilation (p = 0.038) were longer in IHV NB. The IVH NB had a relative risk of 2.3 of developing apnea (p = 0.02), 3.7 of hydrocephalus (p = 0.0007), and 7.7 of periventricular leukomalacia (p < 0.00001). The authors emphasize the importance of knowing the risk factors related to IVH so as to introduce prevention schemes to reduce IVH and to improve outcomes of affected newborns.

A consagração dos naturais

“One cannot analyse a legal concept outside the economic and socio-cultural context in which it was applied” – such is the longstanding thesis of António Manuel Hespanha. I argue that Hespanha’s line of argument relative to legal concepts is also applicable, mutatis mutandis, to legal agents: the magistrates, advocates, notaries, solicitors and clerks who lived and exercised their professions in a given time and place. The question, then, is how to understand the actions of these individuals in particular contexts – more specifically in late 18th century and 19th century Goa. The main goal of the present thesis was to comprehend how westernized and Catholic Goan elite of Brahman and Chardó origin who provided the majority of Goan legal agents used Portuguese law to their own advantage. It can be divided into five key points. The first one is the importance of the Constitutional liberalism regime (with all the juridical, judicial, administrative and political changes that it has brought, namely the parliamentary representation) and its relations with the perismo – a local political and ideological tendency nurtured by Goan native Catholic elite. It was explored in the chapter 2 of this thesis. The second key point is the repeated attempts made by Goan native Catholic elite to implement the jury system in local courts. It was studied in the chapter 3. Chapter 4 aims to understand the participation of the native Catholic elite in the codification process of the uses and traditions of the indigenous peoples in New Conquests territory. The fourth key point is the involvement of those elites not only in the conflict of civil and ecclesiastical jurisdictions but also in the succession of the Royal House of Sunda. It was analyzed in the chapter 5. The functions of an advocate could be delegated to someone who, though lacking a law degree, possessed sufficient knowledge to perform this role satisfactorily. Those who held a special licence to practice law were known as provisionários (from provisão, or licence, as opposed to the letrados, or lettered). In the Goa of the second half of the 18th century and the 19th century, such provisionários were abundant, the vast majority coming from the native Catholic elite. The characteristics of those provisionários, the role played by the Portuguese letrados in Goa and the difficult relations between both groups were studied in the chapter 6.

Intestinal intussusception and occlusion caused by small bowel polyps in the Peutz-Jeghers syndrome. Management by combined intraoperative enteroscopy and resection through minimal enterostomy: case report

The Peutz-Jeghers syndrome is a hereditary disease that requires frequent endoscopic and surgical intervention, leading to secondary complications such as short bowel syndrome. CASE REPORT: This paper reports on a 15-year-old male patient with a family history of the disease, who underwent surgery for treatment of an intestinal occlusion due to a small intestine intussusception. DISCUSSION: An intra-operative fiberscopic procedure was included for the detection and treatment of numerous polyps distributed along the small intestine. Enterotomy was performed to treat only the larger polyps, therefore limiting the intestinal resection to smaller segments. The postoperative follow-up was uneventful. CONCLUSION: We point out the importance of conservative treatment for patients with this syndrome, especially those who will undergo repeated surgical interventions because of clinical manifestation while they are still young.

Energy expenditure after 2- to 3-hour elective surgical operations

Energy expenditure was measured by indirect calorimetry in 17 adult patients (8 women and 9 men) before surgery, 4 hours immediately after surgery , and 24 hours late after surgery in patients undergoing elective surgery of small-to-medium scope. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The total duration of surgery ranged from 2 to 3 hours. Repeated measures were performed on the same patient, so that each patient was considered to be his/her own control. All patients received a 5% dextrose solution (2000 mL/day) throughout the postoperative period. RESULTS: Men showed a reduction in CO2 production during the immediately after surgery period (257±42 mL/min) compared to before surgery (306±48 mL/min) and late after surgery (301±45 mL/min); this reduction was not observed in women. Energy expenditure was also lower in men during immediately after surgery (6.6 kJ/min). None of the other measurements, including substrate oxidation, showed significant differences. CONCLUSION: Therefore, elective surgery itself cannot be considered an important trauma that would result in increased energy expenditure. According to this study, it is not necessary to prescribe an energy supply exceeding basal expenditure during the immediate after-surgery period. The present results suggest that the energy supply prescribed during the postoperative period after elective surgery of small-to-medium scope should not exceed 5-7 kJ/min, so the patient does not receive a carbohydrate overload from energy supplementation.

Meningeal carcinomatosis as the initial manifestation of a gallbladder adenocarcinoma associated with a Krukenberg tumor

A case of malignant neoplasm is described in which the initial manifestations were mental dysfunction and meningeal irritation, mimicking chronic or subacute meningitis. Physical examination showed cranial nerve involvement and a pelvic tumor. There was progressive deterioration, and death occurred in 2 weeks. The autopsy revealed a gallbladder adenocarcinoma, meningeal carcinomatosis, and ovarian metastasis presenting as a Krukenberg tumor. The authors emphasize the importance of including meningeal carcinomatosis as a possibility in the differential diagnosis of non-characteristic clinical pictures, as well as the importance of the cerebrospinal fluid cytologic examination, repeated as needed, in order to confirm this diagnosis.

Impacto da crise no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH-SIDA em Portugal Continental : análise temporal 2001-2012

RESUMO - Contexto: O início da crise económica em Portugal no ano de 2009 colocou o país numa grave recessão económica aliada a diversas medidas de austeridade. Como consequência assistiu-se, ao nível nacional, uma diminuição do PIB, aumento do desemprego e assim como uma série de restrições orçamentais em várias áreas, nomeadamente a da saúde. Apesar de existir inúmeros estudos que avaliaram o impacto das recessões económicas na saúde os resultados são controversos e não existe um consenso quanto a esta associação. No que se refere às doenças infeciosas o número de estudos é bastante mais reduzido. O objetivo deste estudo foi o de analisar o impacto da crise atual no volume e perfil de internamento de doentes com VIH/SIDA, de forma a complementar a escassa evidência existente neste domínio. Metodologia: Foram analisados 53,296 episódios de internamento nos hospitais do SNS entre o ano de 2001 e 2012, cujo diagnóstico principal é a infeção pelo VIH/SIDA. Considerou-se o ano de 2009 como o ano inicial da crise. Através de regressões multivariadas avaliou-se o impacto da crise no volume de doentes internados, duração de internamento, número de co-morbilidades, risco de ser admitido via urgência e risco de mortalidade no internamento. Adicionalmente repetiu-se a análise por região NUTS II de Portugal Continental (Norte, Alentejo, LVT, Centro e Algarve). Resultados: A crise não teve impacto no volume de doentes internados. No entanto, após o ano de 2009, registou-se uma diminuição de 5.6% na duração de internamento; um aumento de 1.6% no número de co-morbilidades; um aumento de 11.1% no risco de ser admitido via urgência e um aumento de 8.6% do risco de mortalidade no internamento. As análises por região permitiram verificar que as regiões mais afetadas pela crise foram a região LVT e a região Norte. Conclusão: A crise em Portugal não teve impacto na incidência de internamentos por VIH/SIDA. Porém o aumento do número de co-morbilidades, do risco de ser admitido via urgência e do risco de mortalidade no internamento parece refletir um agravamento da severidade dos casos após o ano de 2009. Adicionalmente a diminuição da duração de internamento com o efeito da crise poderá refletir tanto aumento da eficiência dos cuidados prestados ou ao contrário, uma diminuição da sua qualidade.

Geomorphology and land development in the Maraca area of northern Roraima, Brazil.

The geomorphological materials and forms of the Maraca area of Roraima, Brazil are described, an their sgnificance for land development examined. Significant contrasts are noted in areas presently under rainforest and savanna vegetation. Lateritic gravels and extensive shetwash accumulations in savanna areas constrast with incipient or absent plinthite development, few gravels and limited evidence of colluvium under rainforest. Terrain is in general relatively highly-dissected. Slope profiles are characterised, particularly within the savanna zone, by a relatively steep lower concavity. These contrasts are sharply-demarcated by the present savanna/rainforest bondary, unexpectedly in view of the generally accepted hypothesis of repeated contraction an expansion of Amazonian rainforest throughout the Pleistocene. It is concluded that geomorphological conditions in the Maraca area are not favorable for land develoment.

Application of wavelets to the study of political history

\The idea that social processes develop in a cyclical manner is somewhat like a `Lorelei'. Researchers are lured to it because of its theoretical promise, only to become entangled in (if not wrecked by) messy problems of empirical inference. The reasoning leading to hypotheses of some kind of cycle is often elegant enough, yet the data from repeated observations rarely display the supposed cyclical pattern. (...) In addition, various `schools' seem to exist which frequently arrive at di erent conclusions on the basis of the same data." (van der Eijk and Weber 1987:271). Much of the empirical controversies around these issues arise because of three distinct problems: the coexistence of cycles of di erent periodicities, the possibility of transient cycles and the existence of cycles without xed periodicity. In some cases, there are no reasons to expect any of these phenomena to be relevant. Seasonality caused by Christmas is one such example (Wen 2002). In such cases, researchers mostly rely on spectral analysis and Auto-Regressive Moving-Average (ARMA) models to estimate the periodicity of cycles.1 However, and this is particularly true in social sciences, sometimes there are good theoretical reasons to expect irregular cycles. In such cases, \the identi cation of periodic movement in something like the vote is a daunting task all by itself. When a pendulum swings with an irregular beat (frequency), and the extent of the swing (amplitude) is not constant, mathematical functions like sine-waves are of no use."(Lebo and Norpoth 2007:73) In the past, this di culty has led to two di erent approaches. On the one hand, some researchers dismissed these methods altogether, relying on informal alternatives that do not meet rigorous standards of statistical inference. Goldstein (1985 and 1988), studying the severity of Great power wars is one such example. On the other hand, there are authors who transfer the assumptions of spectral analysis (and ARMA models) into fundamental assumptions about the nature of social phenomena. This type of argument was produced by Beck (1991) who, in a reply to Goldstein (1988), claimed that only \ xed period models are meaningful models of cyclic phenomena".We argue that wavelet analysis|a mathematical framework developed in the mid-1980s (Grossman and Morlet 1984; Goupillaud et al. 1984) | is a very viable alternative to study cycles in political time-series. It has the advantage of staying close to the frequency domain approach of spectral analysis while addressing its main limitations. Its principal contribution comes from estimating the spectral characteristics of a time-series as a function of time, thus revealing how its di erent periodic components may change over time. The rest of article proceeds as follows. In the section \Time-frequency Analysis", we study in some detail the continuous wavelet transform and compare its time-frequency properties with the more standard tool for that purpose, the windowed Fourier transform. In the section \The British Political Pendulum", we apply wavelet analysis to essentially the same data analyzed by Lebo and Norpoth (2007) and Merrill, Grofman and Brunell (2011) and try to provide a more nuanced answer to the same question discussed by these authors: do British electoral politics exhibit cycles? Finally, in the last section, we present a concise list of future directions.

A novel approach for honey pollen profile assessment using an electronic tongue and chemometric tools

Nowadays the main honey producing countries require accurate labeling of honey before commercialization, including floral classification. Traditionally, this classification is made by melissopalynology analysis, an accurate but time-consuming task requiring laborious sample pre-treatment and high-skilled technicians. In this work the potential use of a potentiometric electronic tongue for pollinic assessment is evaluated, using monofloral and polyfloral honeys. The results showed that after splitting honeys according to color (white, amber and dark), the novel methodology enabled quantifying the relative percentage of the main pollens (Castanea sp., Echium sp., Erica sp., Eucaliptus sp., Lavandula sp., Prunus sp., Rubus sp. and Trifolium sp.). Multiple linear regression models were established for each type of pollen, based on the best sensors sub-sets selected using the simulated annealing algorithm. To minimize the overfitting risk, a repeated K-fold cross-validation procedure was implemented, ensuring that at least 10-20% of the honeys were used for internal validation. With this approach, a minimum average determination coefficient of 0.91 ± 0.15 was obtained. Also, the proposed technique enabled the correct classification of 92% and 100% of monofloral and polyfloral honeys, respectively. The quite satisfactory performance of the novel procedure for quantifying the relative pollen frequency may envisage its applicability for honey labeling and geographical origin identification. Nevertheless, this approach is not a full alternative to the traditional melissopalynologic analysis; it may be seen as a practical complementary tool for preliminary honey floral classification, leaving only problematic cases for pollinic evaluation.

Alcohol sponsored events: the impact on attitudes and intentions, and the mitigating impact of persuasion knowledge

Doctor of Philosophy in Marketing and Strategy