Performance assessment in serious games: Compensating for the effects of randomness

This paper is about performance assessment in serious games. We conceive serious gaming as a process of player-lead decision taking. Starting from combinatorics and item-response theory we provide an analytical model that makes explicit to what extent observed player performances (decisions) are blurred by chance processes (guessing behaviors). We found large effects both theoretically and practically. In two existing serious games random guess scores were found to explain up to 41% of total scores. Monte Carlo simulation of random game play confirmed the substantial impact of randomness on performance. For valid performance assessments, be it in-game or post-game, the effects of randomness should be included to produce re-calibrated scores that can reasonably be interpreted as the players´ achievements.

Are Fast Responses More Random? Testing the Effect of Response Time on Scale in an Online Choice Experiment

Scepticism over stated preference surveys conducted online revolves around the concerns over “professional respondents” who might rush through the questionnaire without sufficiently considering the information provided. To gain insight on the validity of this phenomenon and test the effect of response time on choice randomness, this study makes use of a recently conducted choice experiment survey on ecological and amenity effects of an offshore windfarm in the UK. The positive relationship between self-rated and inferred attribute attendance and response time is taken as evidence for a link between response time and cognitive effort. Subsequently, the generalised multinomial logit model is employed to test the effect of response time on scale, which indicates the weight of the deterministic relative to the error component in the random utility model. Results show that longer response time increases scale, i.e. decreases choice randomness. This positive scale effect of response time is further found to be non-linear and wear off at some point beyond which extreme response time decreases scale. While response time does not systematically affect welfare estimates, higher response time increases the precision of such estimates. These effects persist when self-reported choice certainty is controlled for. Implications of the results for online stated preference surveys and further research are discussed.

Simulation of quantum random walks using the interference of a classical field

We suggest a theoretical scheme for the simulation of quantum random walks on a line using beam splitters, phase shifters, and photodetectors. Our model enables us to simulate a quantum random walk using of the wave nature of classical light fields. Furthermore, the proposed setup allows the analysis of the effects of decoherence. The transition from a pure mean-photon-number distribution to a classical one is studied varying the decoherence parameters.

Dramatic solvent effects on ring-opening metathesis polymerization of cycloalkenes

A series of metathesis polymers and copolymers have been formed and their structures were analysed by C-13 NMR spectroscopy. Noble metal and non-noble metal salt catalysts are distinguished by their behaviour in various solvents. Thus, in phenolic solvents, the former class produce alternating copolymers from cyclopentene and norbornene, while the latter are unaffected and produce random copolymers. In contrast, ether solvents have the effect of markedly increasing the cis content of polymers from the latter catalysts while the former are unaffected.

Effects of nateglinide on the secretion of glycated insulin and glucose tolerance in type 2 diabetes

Aims: Glycation of insulin has been demonstrated within pancreatic beta-cells and the resulting impaired bioactivity may contribute to insulin resistance in diabetes. We used a novel radioimmunoassay to evaluate the effect of nateglinide on plasma concentrations of glycated insulin and glucose tolerance in type 2 diabetes. Methods. Ten patients (5 M/5 F, age 57.8 +/- 1.9 years, HbA(1c), 7.6 +/- 0.5%,, fasting plasma glucose 9.4 +/- 1.2 mmol/l, creatinine 81.6 +/- 4.5 mumol/l) received oral nateglinide 120 mg or placebo, 10 min prior to 75 g oral glucose in a random, single blind, crossover design, 1 week apart. Blood samples were taken for glycated insulin, glucose, insulin and C-peptide over 225 min. Results: Plasma glucose and glycated insulin responses were reduced by 9% (P = 0.005) and 38% (P = 0.047), respectively, following nateglinide compared with placebo. Corresponding AUC measures for insulin and C-peptide were enhanced by 36% (P = 0.005) and 25% (P = 0.007) by nateglinide. Conclusions: Glycated insulin in type 2 diabetes is reduced in response to the insulin secretagogue nateglinide, resulting in preferential release of native insulin. Since glycated insulin exhibits impaired biological activity, reduced glycated insulin release may contribute to the anti hyperglycaemic action of nateglinide. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Functional responses of the intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus: effects of prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity.

The influence of predation in structuring ecological communities can be informed by examining the shape and magnitude of the functional response of predators towards prey. We derived functional responses of the ubiquitous intertidal amphipod Echinogammarus marinus towards one of its preferred prey species, the isopod Jaera nordmanni. First, we examined the form of the functional response where prey were replaced following consumption, as compared to the usual experimental design where prey density in each replicate is allowed to deplete. E. marinus exhibited Type II functional responses, i.e. inversely density-dependent predation of J. nordmanni that increased linearly with prey availability at low densities, but decreased with further prey supply. In both prey replacement and non-replacement experiments, handling times and maximum feeding rates were similar. The non-replacement design underestimated attack rates compared to when prey were replaced. We then compared the use of Holling’s disc equation (assuming constant prey density) with the more appropriate Rogers’ random predator equation (accounting for prey depletion) using the prey non-replacement data. Rogers’ equation returned significantly greater attack rates but lower maximum feeding rates, indicating that model choice has significant implications for parameter estimates. We then manipulated habitat complexity and found significantly reduced predation by the amphipod in complex as opposed to simple habitat structure. Further, the functional response changed from a Type II in simple habitats to a sigmoidal, density-dependent Type III response in complex habitats, which may impart stability on the predator−prey interaction. Enhanced habitat complexity returned significantly lower attack rates, higher handling times and lower maximum feeding rates. These findings illustrate the sensitivity of the functional response to variations in prey supply, model selection and habitat complexity and, further, that E. marinus could potentially determine the local exclusion and persistence of prey through habitat-mediated changes in its predatory functional responses.

Random Regret Minimization: Exploration of a New Choice Model for Environmental and Resource Economics

This paper introduces the discrete choice model-paradigm of Random Regret Minimization (RRM) to the field of environmental and resource economics. The RRM-approach has been very recently developed in the context of travel demand modelling and presents a tractable, regret-based alternative to the dominant choice-modelling paradigm based on Random Utility Maximization-theory (RUM-theory). We highlight how RRM-based models provide closed form, logit-type formulations for choice probabilities that allow for capturing semi-compensatory behaviour and choice set-composition effects while being equally parsimonious as their utilitarian counterparts. Using data from a Stated Choice-experiment aimed at identifying valuations of characteristics of nature parks, we compare RRM-based models and RUM-based models in terms of parameter estimates, goodness of fit, elasticities and consequential policy implications.

How do grazers achieve their distribution? A continuum of models from random diffusion to the ideal free distribution using biased random walks

A conceptual model is described for generating distributions of grazing animals, according to their searching behavior, to investigate the mechanisms animals may use to achieve their distributions. The model simulates behaviors ranging from random diffusion, through taxis and cognitively aided navigation (i.e., using memory), to the optimization extreme of the Ideal Free Distribution. These behaviors are generated from simulation of biased diffusion that operates at multiple scales simultaneously, formalizing ideas of multiple-scale foraging behavior. It uses probabilistic bias to represent decisions, allowing multiple search goals to be combined (e.g., foraging and social goals) and the representation of suboptimal behavior. By allowing bias to arise at multiple scales within the environment, each weighted relative to the others, the model can represent different scales of simultaneous decision-making and scale-dependent behavior. The model also allows different constraints to be applied to the animal's ability (e.g., applying food-patch accessibility and information limits). Simulations show that foraging-decision randomness and spatial scale of decision bias have potentially profound effects on both animal intake rate and the distribution of resources in the environment. Spatial variograms show that foraging strategies can differentially change the spatial pattern of resource abundance in the environment to one characteristic of the foraging strategy.</

Local-field and excitonic effects in the optical response of alpha-alumina

This paper introduces key ingredients of the dielectric response of a-alumina that go beyond an independent-particle (IP) treatment of the valence-electron excitations. The optical-response functions were calculated from first-principles both at the Bethe-Salpeter and the random-phase approximation (RPA) levels. Excitonic effects obtained within the Bethe-Salpeter framework were found essential for reproducing the low-energy part of the experimental spectra (below 15 eV) and the bound exciton in particular. For higher energies, local-field effects introduced through the RPA modified considerably the IP results and provided a satisfactory account of the reflectivity spectra and of the position and shape of the dominant bulk plasmon resonance in the electron energy-loss spectra.

Monte Carlo simulation of complex cohesive fracture in random heterogeneous quasi-brittle materials

A numerical method is developed to simulate complex two-dimensional crack propagation in quasi-brittle materials considering random heterogeneous fracture properties. Potential cracks are represented by pre-inserted cohesive elements with tension and shear softening constitutive laws modelled by spatially varying Weibull random fields. Monte Carlo simulations of a concrete specimen under uni-axial tension were carried out with extensive investigation of the effects of important numerical algorithms and material properties on numerical efficiency and stability, crack propagation processes and load-carrying capacities. It was found that the homogeneous model led to incorrect crack patterns and load–displacement curves with strong mesh-dependence, whereas the heterogeneous model predicted realistic, complicated fracture processes and load-carrying capacity of little mesh-dependence. Increasing the variance of the tensile strength random fields with increased heterogeneity led to reduction in the mean peak load and increase in the standard deviation. The developed method provides a simple but effective tool for assessment of structural reliability and calculation of characteristic material strength for structural design.

Ensemble effects in the coupling of acetylene to benzene on a bimetallic surface: A study with Pd{111}/Au

Acetylene coupling to benzene on the Pd(lll) surface is greatly enhanced by the presence of catalytically inert Au atoms. LEED and Auger spectroscopy show that progressive annealing of Au overlayers on Pd(lll) leads to the formation of a series of random surface alloys with continuously varying composition. Cyclization activity is a strong function of surface composition-the most efficient catalyst corresponds to a surface of composition similar to 85% Pd. CO TPD and HREELS data show that acetylene cyclization activity is not correlated with the availability of singleton Pd atoms, nor just with the presence of 3-fold pure Pd sites-the preferred chemisorption site for C2H2 on Pd{111}. The data can be quantitatively rationalized in terms of a simple model in which catalytic activity is dominated by Pd6Au and Pd-7 surface ensembles, allowance being made for the known degree to which pure Pd{111} decomposes the reactant and product molecules.

Country-of-origin effects on Russian wine consumers

In recent years, Russia has experienced significant economic growth. The wine industry is among those most affected by increases in disposable income. As a consequence, Russian wine importers have widened the range at the upper end of the quality spectrum. In the current scenario, some key questions arise concerning consumer attitudes toward wine and the way it is perceived in this evolving market. This article attempts to investigate such concerns through a choice experiment approach conducted by means of a questionnaire-based survey submitted to 388 Russian households located in the country's three largest cities (Moscow, Saint Petersburg, and Novosibirsk). In the experiment, respondents were asked to choose their favorite wine among seven dry red wines. The stated choices are analyzed using a random utility model to obtain an estimation of the price effect through a triangular distribution. Our results indicate the presence of three distinct market segments in the Russian wine market: a segment with only high-quality, highly priced Italian and French wines, a medium-quality segment currently limited to Spanish wines, and a much lower quality segment of wines in which demand for alcohol is essentially satisfied.

Synthesis and characterization of amphiphilic star copolymers of 2-(dimethylamino) ethyl methacrylate and methyl methacrylate: Effects of architecture and composition

Six amphiphilic star copolymers comprising hydrophilic units of 2-(dimethylamino)ethyl methacrylate (DMAEMA) and hydrophobic units of methyl methacrylate (MMA) were prepared by the sequential group transfer polymerization (GTP) of the two comonomers and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) cross-linker. Four star-block copolymers of different compositions, one miktoarm star, and one statistical copolymer star were synthesized. The molecular weights (MWs) and MW distributions of all the star copolymers and their linear homopolymer and copolymer precursors were characterized by gel permeation chromatography (GPC), while the compositions of the stars were determined by proton nuclear magnetic resonance (H-1 NMR) spectroscopy. Tetrahydrofuran (THF) solutions of all the star copolymers were characterized by static light scattering to determine the absolute weight-average MW ((M) over bar (w)) and the number of arms of the stars. The R, of the stars ranged between 359,000 and 565,000 g mol(-1), while their number of arms ranged between 39 and 120. The star copolymers were soluble in acidic water at pH 4 giving transparent or slightly opaque solutions, with the exception of the very hydrophobic DMAEMA(10)-b-MMA(30)-star, which gave a very opaque solution. Only the random copolymer star was completely dispersed in neutral water, giving a very opaque solution. The effective pKs of the copolymer stars were determined by hydrogen ion titration and were found to be in the range 6.5-7.6. The pHs of precipitation of the star copolymer solutions/dispersions were found to be between 8.8-10.1, except for the most hydrophobic DMA-EMA(10)-b-MMA(30)-Star, which gave a very opaque solution over the whole pH range. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the effects of pseudo-absences on predictive distribution model performance

Modelling species distributions with presence data from atlases, museum collections and databases is challenging. In this paper, we compare seven procedures to generate pseudoabsence data, which in turn are used to generate GLM-logistic regressed models when reliable absence data are not available. We use pseudo-absences selected randomly or by means of presence-only methods (ENFA and MDE) to model the distribution of a threatened endemic Iberian moth species (Graellsia isabelae). The results show that the pseudo-absence selection method greatly influences the percentage of explained variability, the scores of the accuracy measures and, most importantly, the degree of constraint in the distribution estimated. As we extract pseudo-absences from environmental regions further from the optimum established by presence data, the models generated obtain better accuracy scores, and over-prediction increases. When variables other than environmental ones influence the distribution of the species (i.e., non-equilibrium state) and precise information on absences is non-existent, the random selection of pseudo-absences or their selection from environmental localities similar to those of species presence data generates the most constrained predictive distribution maps, because pseudo-absences can be located within environmentally suitable areas. This study showsthat ifwe do not have reliable absence data, the method of pseudo-absence selection strongly conditions the obtained model, generating different model predictions in the gradient between potential and realized distributions.

Places and preferences: a longitudinal analysis of self-selection and contextual effects

Contextual theories of political behaviour assert that the contexts in which people live influence their political beliefs and vote choices. Most studies of political assimilation, however, rely on cross-sectional data and fail to distinguish contextual influence from self-selection of individuals into areas. This paper advances understanding of this longstanding controversy by tracking thousands of individuals over an 18-year period in England. We observe individual-level left-right position and party identification before and after residential moves across areas with different political orientations. We find evidence of both non-random selection into areas and assimilation of new entrants to the majority political orientation. However, these effects are contingent on the type of area an individual moves to and, moreover, contextual effects are weak and dominated by the larger effect of self-selection into areas.