Strategic Bidding in Electricity Markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific characteristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to support decisions in competitive environments; therefore its application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the action to be performed. Our use of game theory is intended for supporting one specific agent and not for achieving the equilibrium in the market. MASCEM (Multi-Agent System for Competitive Electricity Markets) is a multi-agent electricity market simulator that models market players and simulates their operation in the market. The scenario analysis algorithm has been tested within MASCEM and our experimental findings with a case study based on real data from the Iberian Electricity Market are presented and discussed.

Coalition of distributed generation units to Virtual Power Players - a game theory approach

Smart Grids (SGs) have emerged as the new paradigm for power system operation and management, being designed to include large amounts of distributed energy resources. This new paradigm requires new Energy Resource Management (ERM) methodologies considering different operation strategies and the existence of new management players such as several types of aggregators. This paper proposes a methodology to facilitate the coalition between distributed generation units originating Virtual Power Players (VPP) considering a game theory approach. The proposed approach consists in the analysis of the classifications that were attributed by each VPP to the distributed generation units, as well as in the analysis of the previous established contracts by each player. The proposed classification model is based in fourteen parameters including technical, economical and behavioural ones. Depending of the VPP strategies, size and goals, each parameter has different importance. VPP can also manage other type of energy resources, like storage units, electric vehicles, demand response programs or even parts of the MV and LV distribution network. A case study with twelve VPPs with different characteristics and one hundred and fifty real distributed generation units is included in the paper.

Partial Rhombencephalosynapsis.

Clinical history - A 4-year-old boy, born prematurely at 29 weeks (twin pregnancy), with periventricular leukomalacia and epilepsy underwent brain MRI. Neurological examination showed severe developmental retardation with axial hypotonia, spastic tetraparesis and convergent strabismus. Imaging findings - Cranial MRI revealed typical aspects of partial rhombencephalosynapsis with vermian hypoplasia, midline fusion of the cerebellar hemispheres and transversely oriented folia and fissures. There was also mild dilatation and dysmorphism of the ventricular system, the septum pellucidum was absent, the hippocampi were malrotated and had vertical orientation and additional finding of associated periventricular cystic leukomalacia. Discussion - Rhombencephalosynapsis (RS) is a rare congenital defect of the cerebellum classically characterised by vermian agenesis or hypogenesis, fusion of the hemispheres, and closely apposed or fused dentate nuclei. It is now considered to result from an absence of division of the cerebellar hemispheres, following an insult between the 28th and 44th day of gestation (i.e., before the formation of the vermis). Other features have also been described such as fusion of the thalami and cerebral peduncles, malrotated hippocampi, corpus callosum agenesis, hypoplastic chiasm, absence of the septum pellucidum, ventriculomegaly, agenesis of the posterior lobe of the pituitary and cortical malformations. Musculoskeletal, cardiovascular, urinary tract, and respiratory abnormalities have been reported. Typical symptoms consist of swallowing difficulties, delayed motor acquisitions, muscular hypotonia, spastic quadriparesis, cerebellar signs including dysarthria, gait ataxia, abnormal eye movements, and seizures and hydrocephalus. The major MRI signs consist of fused cerebellar hemispheres, with absent or hypoplastic vermis, narrow diamond-shaped fourth ventricle and fused dentate nuclei. In a minority of cases, partial RS has been identified by MRI, demonstrating the presence of the nodulus and the anterior vermis and absence of part of the posterior vermis with only partial fusion of the hemispheres in the inferior part. Other cerebellar malformations involving vermian agenesis or hypoplasia include the Dandy–Walker continuum, Joubert syndrome, tectocerebellar dysraphy or pontocerebellar hypoplasias, and are now easily distinguished from RS by both brain MRI and morphology.

A framework for real time MMO game content generation

Com o aumento de plataformas móveis disponíveis no mercado e com o constante incremento na sua capacidade computacional, a possibilidade de executar aplicações e em especial jogos com elevados requisitos de desempenho aumentou consideravelmente. O mercado dos videojogos tem assim um cada vez maior número de potenciais clientes. Em especial, o mercado de jogos massive multiplayer online (MMO) tem-se tornado muito atractivo para as empresas de desenvolvimento de jogos. Estes jogos suportam uma elevada quantidade de jogadores em simultâneo que podem estar a executar o jogo em diferentes plataformas e distribuídos por um "mundo" de jogo extenso. Para incentivar a exploração desse "mundo", distribuem-se de forma inteligente pontos de interesse que podem ser explorados pelo jogador. Esta abordagem leva a um esforço substancial no planeamento e construção desses mundos, gastando tempo e recursos durante a fase de desenvolvimento. Isto representa um problema para as empresas de desenvolvimento de jogos, e em alguns casos, e impraticável suportar tais custos para equipas indie. Nesta tese e apresentada uma abordagem para a criação de mundos para jogos MMO. Estudam-se vários jogos MMO que são casos de sucesso de modo a identificar propriedades comuns nos seus mundos. O objectivo e criar uma framework flexível capaz de gerar mundos com estruturas que respeitam conjuntos de regras definidas por game designers. Para que seja possível usar a abordagem aqui apresentada em v arias aplicações diferentes, foram desenvolvidos dois módulos principais. O primeiro, chamado rule-based-map-generator, contem a lógica e operações necessárias para a criação de mundos. O segundo, chamado blocker, e um wrapper à volta do módulo rule-based-map-generator que gere as comunicações entre servidor e clientes. De uma forma resumida, o objectivo geral e disponibilizar uma framework para facilitar a geração de mundos para jogos MMO, o que normalmente e um processo bastante demorado e aumenta significativamente o custo de produção, através de uma abordagem semi-automática combinando os benefícios de procedural content generation (PCG) com conteúdo gráfico gerado manualmente.

Three essays on game theory and bargaining

A PhD Dissertation, presented as part of the requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy from the NOVA - School of Business and Economics

Avatars and the «Imitation Game» – can machines smile?

Considering Alan Turing’s challenge in «Computing Machinery and Intelligence» (1950) – can machines play the «imitation game»? – it is proposed that the requirements of the Turing test are already implicitly being used for checking the credibility of virtual characters and avatars. Like characters, Avatars aim to visually express emotions (the exterior signs of the existence of feeling) and its creators have to resort to emotion codes. Traditional arts have profusely contributed for this field and, together with the science of anatomy, shaped the grounds for current Facial Action Coding System (FACS) and their databases. However, FACS researchers have to improve their «instruction tables» so that the machines will be able, in a near future, to be programmed to carry out the operation of recognizing human expressions (face and body) and classify them adequately. For the moment, the reproductions have to resort to the copy of real life expressions, and the presente smile of avatars comes from mirroring their human users.

Spiteful Strategies. The ontogeny and the practice of spite in human interaction: an experimental game theory approach and empirical applications

As estratégias de malevolência implicam que um indivíduo pague um custo para infligir um custo superior a um oponente. Como um dos comportamentos fundamentais da sociobiologia, a malevolência tem recebido menos atenção que os seus pares o egoísmo e a cooperação. Contudo, foi estabelecido que a malevolência é uma estratégia viável em populações pequenas quando usada contra indivíduos negativamente geneticamente relacionados pois este comportamento pode i) ser eliminado naturalmente, ou ii) manter-se em equilíbrio com estratégias cooperativas devido à disponibilidade da parte de indivíduos malevolentes de pagar um custo para punir. Esta tese propõe compreender se a propensão para a malevolência nos humanos é inerente ou se esta se desenvolve com a idade. Para esse efeito, considerei duas experiências de teoria de jogos em crianças em ambiente escolar com idades entre os 6 e os 22 anos. A primeira, um jogo 2x2 foi testada com duas variantes: 1) um prémio foi atribuído a ambos os jogadores, proporcionalmente aos pontos acumulados; 2), um prémio foi atribuído ao jogador com mais pontos. O jogo foi desenhado com o intuito de causar o seguinte dilema a cada jogador: i) maximizar o seu ganho e arriscar ter menos pontos que o adversário; ou ii) decidir não maximizar o seu ganho, garantindo que este não era inferior ao do seu adversário. A segunda experiência consistia num jogo do ditador com duas opções: uma escolha egoísta/altruísta (A), onde o ditador recebia mais ganho, mas o seu recipiente recebia mais que ele e uma escolha malevolente (B) que oferecia menos ganhos ao ditador que a A mas mais ganhos que o recipiente. O dilema era que se as crianças se comportassem de maneira egoísta, obtinham mais ganho para si, ao mesmo tempo que aumentavam o ganho do seu colega. Se fossem malevolentes, então prefeririam ter mais ganho que o seu colega ao mesmo tempo que tinham menos para eles próprios. As experiências foram efetuadas em escolas de duas áreas distintas de Portugal (continente e Açores) para perceber se as preferências malevolentes aumentavam ou diminuíam com a idade. Os resultados na primeira experiência sugerem que (1) os alunos compreenderam a primeira variante como um jogo de coordenação e comportaram-se como maximizadores, copiando as jogadas anteriores dos seus adversários; (2) que os alunos repetentes se comportaram preferencialmente como malevolentes, mais frequentemente que como maximizadores, com especial ênfase para os alunos de 14 anos; (3) maioria dos alunos comportou-se reciprocamente desde os 12 até aos 16 anos de idade, após os quais começaram a desenvolver uma maior tolerância às escolhas dos seus parceiros. Os resultados da segunda experiência sugerem que (1) as estratégias egoístas eram prevalentes até aos 6 anos de idade, (2) as tendências altruístas emergiram até aos 8 anos de idade e (3) as estratégias de malevolência começaram a emergir a partir dos 8 anos de idade. Estes resultados complementam a literatura relativamente escassa sobre malevolência e sugerem que este comportamento está intimamente ligado a preferências de consideração sobre os outros, o paroquialismo e os estágios de desenvolvimento das crianças.************************************************************Spite is defined as an act that causes loss of payoff to an opponent at a cost to the actor. As one of the four fundamental behaviours in sociobiology, it has received far less attention than its counterparts selfishness and cooperation. It has however been established as a viable strategy in small populations when used against negatively related individuals. Because of this, spite can either i) disappear or ii) remain at equilibrium with cooperative strategies due to the willingness of spiteful individuals to pay a cost in order to punish. This thesis sets out to understand whether propensity for spiteful behaviour is inherent or if it develops with age. For that effect, two game-theoretical experiments were performed with schoolboys and schoolgirls aged 6 to 22. The first, a 2 x 2 game, was tested in two variants: 1) a prize was awarded to both players, proportional to accumulated points; 2), a prize was given to the player with most points. Each player faced the following dilemma: i) to maximise pay-off risking a lower pay-off than the opponent; or ii) not to maximise pay-off in order to cut down the opponent below their own. The second game was a dictator experiment with two choices, (A) a selfish/altruistic choice affording more payoff to the donor than B, but more to the recipient than to the donor, and (B) a spiteful choice that afforded less payoff to the donor than A, but even lower payoff to the recipient. The dilemma here was that if subjects behaved selfishly, they obtained more payoff for themselves, while at the same time increasing their opponent payoff. If they were spiteful, they would rather have more payoff than their colleague, at the cost of less for themselves. Experiments were run in schools in two different areas in Portugal (mainland and Azores) to understand whether spiteful preferences varied with age. Results in the first experiment suggested that (1) students understood the first variant as a coordination game and engaged in maximising behaviour by copying their opponent’s plays; (2) repeating students preferentially engaged in spiteful behaviour more often than maximising behaviour, with special emphasis on 14 year-olds; (3) most students engaged in reciprocal behaviour from ages 12 to 16, as they began developing higher tolerance for their opponent choices. Results for the second experiment suggested that (1) selfish strategies were prevalent until the age of 6, (2) altruistic tendencies emerged since then, and (3) spiteful strategies began being chosen more often by 8 year-olds. These results add to the relatively scarce body of literature on spite and suggest that this type of behaviour is closely tied with other-regarding preferences, parochialism and the children’s stages of development.

Evolution of reputation in networks: A mean field game approach

This work models the competitive behaviour of individuals who maximize their own utility managing their network of connections with other individuals. Utility is taken as a synonym of reputation in this model. Each agent has to decide between two variables: the quality of connections and the number of connections. Hence, the reputation of an individual is a function of the number and the quality of connections within the network. On the other hand, individuals incur in a cost when they improve their network of contacts. The initial value of the quality and number of connections of each individual is distributed according to an initial (given) distribution. The competition occurs over continuous time and among a continuum of agents. A mean field game approach is adopted to solve the model, leading to an optimal trajectory for the number and quality of connections for each individual.

Almirante: Evaluating the board game: Board game, startup, discounted cash flow, venture capital method, real options

This thesis evaluates a start-up company (Jogos Almirante Lda) whose single asset is a board game named Almirante. It aims to conclude whether it makes sense to create a company or just earn copyrights. The thesis analyzes the board game’s market, as part of the general toy’s market, from which some data exists: European countries as well as the USA. In this work it is analyzed the several ways to finance a start-up company and then present an overview of the valuation of the Jogos Almirante based on three different methods: Discounted Cash Flow, Venture Capital Method and Real Options.

“The impact of online ratings on video game sales”

Online third-party reviews have been grown over the last decade and they now play an important role as a tool for helping customers evaluate products and services that in many cases offer more than tangible features. This study intends to quantify the impact online ratings have over video game sales by conducting a linear regression analysis on 300 titles for the previous console generation (PlayStation® 3 and Xbox® 360) using a data from the video game industry to understand the existing influence on this particular market. The findings showed that these variables have a weak linear relationship thus suggesting that quality of a title explains little the commercial success of a video game and instead this should cover a wider range of factors. Afterwards, we compare results to previous ones and discuss the managerial implications for upcoming gaming generations.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Ex vivo ultrasound control of resection margins during partial nephrectomy.

Purpose: Surgery remains the treatment of choice for localized renal neoplasms. While radical nephrectomy was long considered the gold standard, partial nephrectomy has equivalent oncological results for small tumors. The role of negative surgical margins continues to be debated. Intraoperative frozen section analysis is expensive and time-consuming. We assessed the feasibility of intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound of resection margins in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy and its correlation with margin status on definitive pathological evaluation.Materials and Methods: A study was done at 2 institutions from February 2008 to March 2011. Patients undergoing partial nephrectomy for T1-T2 renal tumors were included in analysis. Partial nephrectomy was done by a standardized minimal healthy tissue margin technique. After resection the specimen was kept in saline and tumor margin status was immediately determined by ex vivo ultrasound. Sequential images were obtained to evaluate the whole tumor pseudocapsule. Results were compared with margin status on definitive pathological evaluation.Results: A total of 19 men and 14 women with a mean +/- SD age of 62 +/- 11 years were included in analysis. Intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound revealed negative surgical margins in 30 cases and positive margins in 2 while it could not be done in 1. Final pathological results revealed negative margins in all except 1 case. Ultrasound sensitivity and specificity were 100% and 97%, respectively. Median ultrasound duration was 1 minute. Mean tumor and margin size was 3.6 +/- 2.2 cm and 1.5 +/- 0.7 mm, respectively.Conclusions: Intraoperative ex vivo ultrasound of resection margins in patients undergoing partial nephrectomy is feasible and efficient. Large sample studies are needed to confirm its promising accuracy to determine margin status.

Creatine deficiency syndomes : a new model of partial GAMT deficiency affecting brain cell development

Les syndromes de déficiences cérébrales en créatine (CCDS) sont dus à des mutations dans les gènes GATM et G AMT (codant pour les enzymes AGAT et G AMT de la voie de synthèse de créatine) ainsi que SLC6A8 (transporteur de créatine), et génèrent une absence ou une très forte baisse de créatine (Cr) dans le cerveau, mesurée par spectroscopic de résonance magnétique. Les patients CCDS développent des handicaps neurologiques sévères. Les patients AGAT et GAMT peuvent être traités avec des doses importantes de Cr, mais gardent dans la plupart des cas des séquelles neurologiques irréversibles. Aucun traitement efficace n'existe à ce jour pour la déficience en SLC6A8. Bien que de nombreux modèles aient été développés pour comprendre la Cr cérébrale en conditions physiologiques, les pathomécanismes des CCDS ne sont pas encore compris. Des souris transgéniques pour les gènes Gatm, Gamt et Slc6a8 ont été générées, mais elles ne miment que partiellement la pathologie humaine. Parmi les CCDS, la déficience en GAMT est la plus sévère, en raison de l'accumulation cérébrale de l'intermédiaire guanidinoacétate (GAA). Alors que la toxicité cérébrale du GAA a été étudiée par exposition directe au GAA d'animaux adultes sains, les mécanismes de la toxicité du GAA en condition de déficience en GAMT dans le cerveau en développement sont encore inconnus. Le but de ce projet était donc de développer un modèle de déficience en GAMT dans des cultures 3D primaires de cellules nerveuses de rat en agrégats par knock-down du gène GAMT, en utilisant un virus adéno-associé (AAV) induisant le mécanisme d'interférence à l'ARN (RNAi). Le virus scAAV2, à la multiplicité d'infection de 1000, s'est révélé le plus efficace pour transduire tous les types de cellules nerveuses des cultures (neurones, astrocytes, oligodendrocytes), et générer un knock-down maximal de la protéine GAMT de 85% (jour in vitro 18). Cette déficience partielle en GAMT s'est révélée insuffisante pour générer une déficience en Cr, mais a causé l'accumulation attendue de GAA, à des doses comparables aux niveaux observés dans le LCR des patients GAMT. Le GAA a induit une croissance axonale anarchique accompagnée d'une baisse de l'apoptose naturelle, suivis par une induction tardive de mort cellulaire non-apoptotique. Le co-traitement par la Cr a prévenu tous les effets toxiques du GAA. Ce travail montre que l'accumulation de GAA en absence de déficience en Cr est suffisante pour affecter le développement du tissu nerveux, et suggère que des formes de déficiences en GAMT supplémentaires, ne présentant pas de déficiences en Cr, pourraient être découvertes par mesure du GAA, en particulier à travers les programmes récemment proposés de dépistage néonatal de la déficience en GAMT. -- Cerebral creatine deficiency syndromes (CCDS) are caused by mutations in the genes GATM and GAMT (respectively coding for the two enzymes of the creatine synthetic pathway, AGAT and GAMT) as well as SLC6A8 (creatine transporter), and lead to the absence or very strong decrease of creatine (Cr) in the brain when measured by magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Affected patients show severe neurological impairments. While AGAT and GAMT deficient patients can be treated with high dosages of Cr, most remain with irreversible brain sequelae. No treatment has been successful so far for SLC6A8 deficiency. While many models have helped understanding the cerebral Cr pathways in physiological conditions, the pathomechanisms underlying CCDS are yet to be elucidated. Transgenic mice carrying mutations in the Gatm, Gamt and Slc6a8 genes have been developed, but only partially mimic the human pathology. Among CCDS, GAMT deficiency is the most severe, due to the CNS accumulation of the guanidinoacetate (GAA) intermediate. While brain toxicity of GAA has been explored through direct GAA exposure of adult healthy animals, the mechanisms underlying GAA toxicity in GAMT deficiency conditions on the developing CNS are yet unknown. The aim of this project was thus to develop and characterize a GAMT deficiency model in developing brain cells by gene knockdown, by adeno-associated virus (AAV)-driven RNA interference (RNAi) in rat 3D organotypic primary brain cell cultures in aggregates. scAAV2 with a multiplicity of infection of 1000 was shown as the most efficient serotype, was able to transduce all brain cell types (neurons, astrocytes, oligodendrocytes) and to induce a maximal GAMT protein knockdown of 85% (day in vitro 18). Metabolite analysis showed that partial GAMT knockdown was insufficient to induce Cr deficiency but generated the awaited GAA accumulation at concentrations comparable to the levels observed in cerebrospinal fluid of GAMT-deficient patients. Accumulated GAA induced axonal hypersprouting paralleled with inhibition of natural apoptosis, followed by a later induction in non-apoptotic cell death. Cr supplementation led to the prevention of all GAA-induced toxic effects. This work shows that GAA accumulation without Cr deficiency is sufficient to affect CNS development, and suggests that additional partial GAMT deficiencies, which may not show the classical brain Cr deficiency, may be discovered through GAA measurement including by recently proposed neonatal screening programs for GAMT deficiency.

The fusion protein SS18-SSX1 employs core Wnt pathway transcription factors to induce a partial Wnt signature in synovial sarcoma.

Expression of the SS18/SYT-SSX fusion protein is believed to underlie the pathogenesis of synovial sarcoma (SS). Recent evidence suggests that deregulation of the Wnt pathway may play an important role in SS but the mechanisms whereby SS18-SSX might affect Wnt signaling remain to be elucidated. Here, we show that SS18/SSX tightly regulates the elevated expression of the key Wnt target AXIN2 in primary SS. SS18-SSX is shown to interact with TCF/LEF, TLE and HDAC but not β-catenin in vivo and to induce Wnt target gene expression by forming a complex containing promoter-bound TCF/LEF and HDAC but lacking β-catenin. Our observations provide a tumor-specific mechanistic basis for Wnt target gene induction in SS that can occur in the absence of Wnt ligand stimulation.

Customer involvement in lean startup principles: case of game development studio

The objective of this thesis is to better understand customer’s role in lean startup methodology. The aim is to find out how customers are involved in lean startup methodology implantation and increase the likelihood of new venture survival. This study emphasizes the usage of customers in shaping of new product development processes within companies, through iteration and constant communication. This communication facilitates the development of features that are requested by the customers and enhances the prospects of the new venture. The empirical part of the study is a single qualitative case study that uses action research to implement the lean startup methodology into a pre-revenue venture and examines its customer involvement processes. The studied case company is Karaoke d.o.o., developing a game called kParty. The study used the theory discussed in the literature review: customer involvement (in the survey and interviews conducted for the lean startup methodology), lean principles (through the implementation of lean startup methodology) and lean startup methodology, which are the central building parts of this thesis as a whole. The thesis contributes to the understanding of customer involvement in lean startup methodology, while giving practical implications of customer orientation and product market fitting.