The predictive value of psychological assessment of candidates for gastric bypass: A medical chart review

Background and Objectives: Guidelines for bariatric surgery demand a psychological evaluation of applicants. The aim of this study was to evaluate if the presence of "psychological risk factors" predicts postoperative weight loss after gastric bypass. Methods: Medical records of obese women who underwent bariatric surgery between 2000 and 2004 were reviewed. Psychological assessment consisted of a one-hour semi-structured interview, summarized in a written report. Anthropometric assessment at baseline and 6,12,18 and 24 months after surgery included body weight, height and body mass index. Results: The mean BMI of included patients (N = 92) was 46.2 + 6,3 kg/m(2) (range 38.4-69.7). Based on the psychological assessment, 27% (N = 25) of the patients were classified as having "psychological risk factors" and 28% (N = 26) were diagnosed with a psychiatric diagnosis, most often major depression. Two years after gastric bypass, 16% of patients with "psychological risk factors" achieved an excellent result (%EWL > 75) versus 39% of those without (p < 0.05). About 1 out of 4 patients was in postoperative psychiatric treatment, but only half of them were identified as having "psychological risk factors" at baseline. Weight loss of patients initiating a psychiatric treatment only after surgery was less than of patients who continued psychiatric treatment already initiated before surgery (55.7 + 14.8 versus 66.5 + 14.2 %EWL). Conclusions: A single semi-structured psychological interview may identify patients who are at risk for diminished postoperative weight loss; however, psychological assessment did not identify those patients who were in need of a psychiatric postoperative treatment.

Acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and healing of hip fracture in Alzheimer's disease patients: a retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES This study was designed to assess effects of cholinergic stimulation using acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (AChEIs), a group of drugs that stimulate cholinergic receptors and are used to treat Alzheimer's disease (AD), on healing of hip fractures. METHODS A retrospective cohort study was performed using 46-female AD patients, aged above 75 years, who sustained hip fractures. Study analyses included the first 6-months after hip fracture fixation procedure. Presence of AChEIs was used as predictor variable. Other variables that could affect study outcomes: age, body mass index (BMI), mental state or type of hip fracture, were also included. Radiographic union at fracture site (Hammer index), bone quality (Singh index) and fracture healing complications were recorded as study outcomes. The collected data was analyzed by student's-t, Mann-Whitney-U and chi-square tests. RESULTS No significant differences in age, BMI, mental state or type of hip fracture were observed between AChEIs-users and nonusers. However, AChEIs-users had better radiographic union at the fracture site (relative risk (RR),2.7; 95%confidence interval (CI),0.9-7.8), better bone quality (RR,2.0; 95%CI,1.2-3.3) and fewer healing complications (RR,0.8; 95%CI,0.7-1.0) than nonusers. CONCLUSION In elderly female patients with AD, the use of AChEIs might be associated with an enhanced fracture healing and minimized complications.

The development of anemia is associated to poor prognosis in NKF/KDOQI stage 3 chronic kidney disease

BACKGROUND: Anemia is a common condition in CKD that has been identified as a cardiovascular (CV) risk factor in end-stage renal disease, constituting a predictor of low survival. The aim of this study was to define the onset of anemia of renal origin and its association with the evolution of kidney disease and clinical outcomes in stage 3 CKD (CKD-3). METHODS: This epidemiological, prospective, multicenter, 3-year study included 439 CKD-3 patients. The origin of nephropathy and comorbidity (Charlson score: 3.2) were recorded. The clinical characteristics of patients that developed anemia according to EBPG guidelines were compared with those that did not, followed by multivariate logistic regression, Kaplan-Meier curves and ROC curves to investigate factors associated with the development of renal anemia. RESULTS: During the 36-month follow-up period, 50% reached CKD-4 or 5, and approximately 35% were diagnosed with anemia (85% of renal origin). The probability of developing renal anemia was 0.12, 0.20 and 0.25 at 1, 2 and 3 years, respectively. Patients that developed anemia were mainly men (72% anemic vs. 69% non-anemic). The mean age was 68 vs. 65.5 years and baseline proteinuria was 0.94 vs. 0.62 g/24h (anemic vs. non anemic, respectively). Baseline MDRD values were 36 vs. 40 mL/min and albumin 4.1 vs. 4.3 g/dL; reduction in MDRD was greater in those that developed anemia (6.8 vs. 1.6 mL/min/1.73 m2/3 years). These patients progressed earlier to CKD-4 or 5 (18 vs. 28 months), with a higher proportion of hospitalizations (31 vs. 16%), major CV events (16 vs. 7%), and higher mortality (10 vs. 6.6%) than those without anemia. Multivariate logistic regression indicated a significant association between baseline hemoglobin (OR=0.35; 95% CI: 0.24-0.28), glomerular filtration rate (OR=0.96; 95% CI: 0.93-0.99), female (OR=0.19; 95% CI: 0.10-0.40) and the development of renal anemia. CONCLUSIONS: Renal anemia is associated with a more rapid evolution to CKD-4, and a higher risk of CV events and hospitalization in non-dialysis-dependent CKD patients. This suggests that special attention should be paid to anemic CKD-3 patients.

Permanent pacemaker implantation after transcatheter aortic valve implantation: impact on late clinical outcomes and left ventricular function.

BACKGROUND Very few data exist on the clinical impact of permanent pacemaker implantation (PPI) after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of PPI after transcatheter aortic valve implantation on late outcomes in a large cohort of patients. METHODS AND RESULTS A total of 1556 consecutive patients without prior PPI undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation were included. Of them, 239 patients (15.4%) required a PPI within the first 30 days after transcatheter aortic valve implantation. At a mean follow-up of 22±17 months, no association was observed between the need for 30-day PPI and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.30; P=0.871), cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.56-1.17; P=0.270), and all-cause mortality or rehospitalization for heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.30; P=0.980). A lower rate of unexpected (sudden or unknown) death was observed in patients with PPI (hazard ratio, 0.31; 95% confidence interval, 0.11-0.85; P=0.023). Patients with new PPI showed a poorer evolution of left ventricular ejection fraction over time (P=0.017), and new PPI was an independent predictor of left ventricular ejection fraction decrease at the 6- to 12-month follow-up (estimated coefficient, -2.26; 95% confidence interval, -4.07 to -0.44; P=0.013; R(2)=0.121). CONCLUSIONS The need for PPI was a frequent complication of transcatheter aortic valve implantation, but it was not associated with any increase in overall or cardiovascular death or rehospitalization for heart failure after a mean follow-up of ≈2 years. Indeed, 30-day PPI was a protective factor for the occurrence of unexpected (sudden or unknown) death. However, new PPI did have a negative effect on left ventricular function over time.

Temporal abundance of Aedes aegypti in Manaus, Brazil, measured by two trap types for adult mosquitoes

A longitudinal study was conducted in Manaus, Brazil, to monitor changes of adult Aedes aegypti (L.) abundance. The objectives were to compare mosquito collections of two trap types, to characterise temporal changes of the mosquito population, to investigate the influence of meteorological variables on mosquito collections and to analyse the association between mosquito collections and dengue incidence. Mosquito monitoring was performed fortnightly using MosquiTRAPs (MQT) and BG-Sentinel (BGS) traps between December 2008-June 2010. The two traps revealed opposing temporal infestation patterns, with highest mosquito collections of MQTs during the dry season and highest collections of BGS during the rainy seasons. Several meteorological variables were significant predictors of mosquito collections in the BGS. The best predictor was the relative humidity, lagged two weeks (in a positive relationship). For MQT, only the number of rainy days in the previous week was significant (in a negative relationship). The correlation between monthly dengue incidence and mosquito abundance in BGS and MQT was moderately positive and negative, respectively. Catches of BGS traps reflected better the dynamic of dengue incidence. The findings help to understand the effects of meteorological variables on mosquito infestation indices of two different traps for adult dengue vectors in Manaus.

Study and implementation of some quantitative trading models

Quantitative or algorithmic trading is the automatization of investments decisions obeying a fixed or dynamic sets of rules to determine trading orders. It has increasingly made its way up to 70% of the trading volume of one of the biggest financial markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). However, there is not a signi cant amount of academic literature devoted to it due to the private nature of investment banks and hedge funds. This projects aims to review the literature and discuss the models available in a subject that publications are scarce and infrequently. We review the basic and fundamental mathematical concepts needed for modeling financial markets such as: stochastic processes, stochastic integration and basic models for prices and spreads dynamics necessary for building quantitative strategies. We also contrast these models with real market data with minutely sampling frequency from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). Quantitative strategies try to exploit two types of behavior: trend following or mean reversion. The former is grouped in the so-called technical models and the later in the so-called pairs trading. Technical models have been discarded by financial theoreticians but we show that they can be properly cast into a well defined scientific predictor if the signal generated by them pass the test of being a Markov time. That is, we can tell if the signal has occurred or not by examining the information up to the current time; or more technically, if the event is F_t-measurable. On the other hand the concept of pairs trading or market neutral strategy is fairly simple. However it can be cast in a variety of mathematical models ranging from a method based on a simple euclidean distance, in a co-integration framework or involving stochastic differential equations such as the well-known Ornstein-Uhlenbeck mean reversal ODE and its variations. A model for forecasting any economic or financial magnitude could be properly defined with scientific rigor but it could also lack of any economical value and be considered useless from a practical point of view. This is why this project could not be complete without a backtesting of the mentioned strategies. Conducting a useful and realistic backtesting is by no means a trivial exercise since the \laws" that govern financial markets are constantly evolving in time. This is the reason because we make emphasis in the calibration process of the strategies' parameters to adapt the given market conditions. We find out that the parameters from technical models are more volatile than their counterpart form market neutral strategies and calibration must be done in a high-frequency sampling manner to constantly track the currently market situation. As a whole, the goal of this project is to provide an overview of a quantitative approach to investment reviewing basic strategies and illustrating them by means of a back-testing with real financial market data. The sources of the data used in this project are Bloomberg for intraday time series and Yahoo! for daily prices. All numeric computations and graphics used and shown in this project were implemented in MATLAB^R scratch from scratch as a part of this thesis. No other mathematical or statistical software was used.

Estudio de parámetros gasométricos en sangre pre y post oclusión en el ictus agudo isquemico

Durante los procedimientos endovasculares en el ictus isquémico la información per-procedimiento del daño cerebral ayudaría a tomar decisiones sobre intentar la recanalización arterial. Métodos Se estudiaron parámetros gasométricos de sangre extraída durante los procedimientos endovasculares de recanalización. Se obtuvieron muestras proximal y distal a la oclusión. Un estudio gasométrico se realizo inmediatamente. Resultados El estudio mostró diferencias significativas entre las muestras pre-oclusión y postoclusión en la presión parcial de oxígeno (PaO2Pre78,9±16.3mmHgVs73.4±14.9 mmHg,p&0,001). Una curva ROC determinó que una Post-PaO2&70 mmHg predice mejoría clínica. Los pacientes con post-PaO2&70mmHg tuvieron mejor autonomía (medianaMRS:3Vs.6, p=0,024). En el análisis multivariante el único predictor independiente de mejoría clínica fue la Post-PaO2&70(OR:5,21IC95%:1.38-67.24,p=0,013). Conclusión Es posible la obtención de muestras de sangre del tejido lesionado distal a la oclusión. La información puede ser utilizada para predecir evolución clínica y en las decisiones durante el procedimiento.

HIV-1 coreceptor usage and CXCR4-specific viral load predict clinical disease progression during combination antiretroviral therapy

Background: Although combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) dramatically reduces rates of AIDS and death, a minority of patients experience clinical disease progression during treatment. <p>Objective: To investigate whether detection of CXCR4(X4)-specific strains or quantification of X4-specific HIV-1 load predict clinical outcome. Methods: From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 96 participants who initiated cART yet subsequently progressed to AIDS or death were compared with 84 contemporaneous, treated nonprogressors. A sensitive heteroduplex tracking assay was developed to quantify plasma X4 and CCR5 variants and resolve HIV-1 load into coreceptor-specific components. Measurements were analyzed as cofactors of progression in multivariable Cox models adjusted for concurrent CD4 cell count and total viral load, applying inverse probability weights to adjust for sampling bias. Results: Patients with X4 variants at baseline displayed reduced CD4 cell responses compared with those without X4 strains (40 versus 82 cells/mu l; P= 0.012). The adjusted multivariable hazard ratio (HR) for clinical progression was 4.8 [95% confidence interval (Cl) 2.3-10.0] for those demonstrating X4 strains at baseline. The X4-specific HIV-1 load was a similarly independent predictor, with HR values of 3.7(95%Cl, 1.2-11.3) and 5.9 (95% Cl, 2.2-15.0) for baseline loads of 2.2-4.3 and > 4.3 log(10)copies/ml, respectively, compared with < 2.2 log(10)copies/ml. Conclusions: HIV-1 coreceptor usage and X4-specific viral loads strongly predicted disease progression during cART, independent of and in addition to CD4 cell count or total viral load. Detection and quantification of X4 strains promise to be clinically useful biomarkers to guide patient management and study HIV-1 pathogenesis.

Gender difference in the response to an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and a diuretic in hypertensive patients of African descent.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors in decreasing blood pressure in African patients is controversial. OBJECTIVE: We examined the ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) response to a diuretic and an ACE inhibitor in hypertensive patients of East African descent and evaluated the individual characteristics that determined treatment efficacy. DESIGN: A single-blind randomized AB/BA crossover design. SETTING: Hypertensive families of East African descent from the general population in the Seychelles. PARTICIPANTS: Fifty-two (29 men and 23 women) out of 62 eligible hypertensive patients were included.Main outcome measures ABP response to 20 mg lisinopril (LIS) daily and 25 mg hydrochlorothiazide (HCT) daily given for a 4-week period.Results The daytime systolic/diastolic ABP response to HCT was 4.9 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-8.6]/3.6 (1.0-6.2) mmHg for men and 12.9 (9.2-16.6)/6.3 (3.7-8.8) mmHg for women. With LIS the response was 18.8 (15.0-22.5)/14.6 (12.0-17.1) mmHg for men and 12.4 (8.7-16.2)/7.7 (5.1-10.2) mmHg for women. The night-time systolic/diastolic response to HCT was 5.0 (0.6-9.4)/2.7 [(-0.4)-5.7] mmHg for men and 11.5 (7.1-16.0)/5.7 (2.6-8.8) mmHg for women, and to LIS was 18.7 (14.2-22.1)/15.4 (12.4-18.5) mmHg for men and 3.5 [(-1.0)-7.9]/2.3 [(-0.8)-5.4] mmHg for women. Linear regression analyses showed that gender is an independent predictor of the ABP responses to HCT and to LIS. CONCLUSIONS: Hypertensive patients of African descent responded better to LIS than to HCT. Men responded better to LIS than to HCT and women responded similarly to both drugs.

Bonafide, type-specific human papillomavirus persistence among HIV-positive pregnant women: predictive value for cytological abnormalities, a longitudinal cohort study

This study investigated the rate of human papillomavirus (HPV) persistence, associated risk factors, and predictors of cytological alteration outcomes in a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus-infected pregnant women over an 18-month period. HPV was typed through L1 gene sequencing in cervical smears collected during gestation and at 12 months after delivery. Outcomes were defined as nonpersistence (clearance of the HPV in the 2nd sample), re-infection (detection of different types of HPV in the 2 samples), and type-specific HPV persistence (the same HPV type found in both samples). An unfavourable cytological outcome was considered when the second exam showed progression to squamous intraepithelial lesion or high squamous intraepithelial lesion. Ninety patients were studied. HPV DNA persistence occurred in 50% of the cases composed of type-specific persistence (30%) or re-infection (20%). A low CD4+T-cell count at entry was a risk factor for type-specific, re-infection, or HPV DNA persistence. The odds ratio (OR) was almost three times higher in the type-specific group when compared with the re-infection group (OR = 2.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.43-22.79). Our findings show that bonafide (type-specific) HPV persistence is a stronger predictor for the development of cytological abnormalities, highlighting the need for HPV typing as opposed to HPV DNA testing in the clinical setting.

Predictors of return to work after a knee injury in patients hospitalized in vocational rehabilitation

Introduction.- Knee injuries are frequent in a young and active population. Most of the patients resume their professional activity but few studies were interested in factors that predict a return to work. The aim of this study is to identify these predictors from a large panel of bio-psychosocial variables. We postulated that the return to work 3 months and 2 years after discharge is mostly predicted by psychosocial variables.Patients and methods.- Prospective study, patients hospitalized for a knee injury. Variables measured: the abbreviated injury score (AIS) for the gravity of the injuries, analog visual scale for the intensity of pain, INTERMED for the bio-psychosocial complexity, SF-36 for the quality of life, HADs for the anxiety/depression symptoms and IKDC score for the knee function. Univariate logistic regressions, adjusted for age and gender, were performed in order to predict return to work.Results.- One hundred and twenty-six patients hospitalized during 8 months after the accident were included into this prospective study. A total of 73 (58%) and 75 (59%) questionnaires were available after 3 months and 2 years, respectively. The SF-36 pain was the sole predictor of return to work at 3 months (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01; for a one point increase) and 2 years (odds Ratio 1.06 [1.02-1.10], P = 0.01). At three months, other factors are SF-36 (physic sub-scale), IKDC score, the presence of a work contract and the presence of litigation. The bio-psychosocial complexity, the presence of depressive symptoms predicts the return to work at two years.Discussion.- Our working hypothesis was partially confirmed: some psychosocial factors (i.e. depressive symptoms, work contract, litigation, INTERMED) predict the return to work but the physical health and the knee function, perceived by the patient, are also correlated. Pain is the sole factor isolated at both times (i.e. 3 months and 2 years) and, consequently, appears a key element in the prediction of the return to work. Some factors are accessible to the rehabilitation program but only if an interdisciplinary approach is performed.

Mindfulness in informal caregivers of palliative patients.

OBJECTIVES: Mindfulness is a concept of growing impact on psychotherapy and has been shown to be effective for stress reduction and to improve psychological well-being. Existential Behavioural Therapy (EBT) was developed to support relatives of palliative care (PC) patients to cope with their situation during caregiving and bereavement. Mindfulness training was a core element of the intervention. We investigated the relationship between mindfulness, mental distress, and psychological well-being in informal caregivers, and evaluated if the effects of the intervention were mediated by mindfulness. METHODS: Relatives of PC inpatients took part in a randomized-controlled EBT trial and completed the Cognitive and Affective Mindfulness Scale-Revised, items from the Five Facets of Mindfulness as well as the Brief Symptom Inventory, the Satisfaction with Life Scale, the WHOQOL-BREF, a numerical rating scale on quality of life (range 0-10), and the Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation at pre- and post-intervention, and a 3- and 12-months follow-up. RESULTS: One-hundred-and-thirty carers were included, most of them (71.6%) recently being bereaved at the beginning of the intervention. High correlations between mindfulness and mental distress (r = -0.51, p < 0.001) as well as life satisfaction (r = 0.52, p < 0.001) were found. Mindfulness was a significant predictor of improvement in psychological distress, meaning in life and quality of life three months after the intervention. The EBT effects were partly mediated by mindfulness. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: Mindfulness seems to be a promising concept in supporting informal caregivers of PC patients. Further research is needed to identify the required format and intensity of mindfulness practice necessary for improvement.

Modulation of Higher-Order Olfaction Components on Executive Functions in Humans.

The prefrontal (PFC) and orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) appear to be associated with both executive functions and olfaction. However, there is little data relating olfactory processing and executive functions in humans. The present study aimed at exploring the role of olfaction on executive functioning, making a distinction between primary and more cognitive aspects of olfaction. Three executive tasks of similar difficulty were used. One was used to assess hot executive functions (Iowa Gambling Task-IGT), and two as a measure of cold executive functioning (Stroop Colour and Word Test-SCWT and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test-WCST). Sixty two healthy participants were included: 31 with normosmia and 31 with hyposmia. Olfactory abilities were assessed using the ''Sniffin' Sticks'' test and the olfactory threshold, odour discrimination and odour identification measures were obtained. All participants were female, aged between 18 and 60. Results showed that participants with hyposmia displayed worse performance in decision making (IGT; Cohen's-d = 0.91) and cognitive flexibility (WCST; Cohen's-d between 0.54 and 0.68) compared to those with normosmia. Multiple regression adjusted by the covariates participants' age and education level showed a positive association between odour identification and the cognitive inhibition response (SCWT-interference; Beta = 0.29; p = .034). The odour discrimination capacity was not a predictor of the cognitive executive performance. Our results suggest that both hot and cold executive functions seem to be associated with higher-order olfactory functioning in humans. These results robustly support the hypothesis that olfaction and executive measures have a common neural substrate in PFC and OFC, and suggest that olfaction might be a reliable cognitive marker in psychiatric and neurologic disorders.

Energy expenditure in obese women before and during weight loss, after refeeding, and in the weight-relapse period.

In 10 moderately obese women, 24-h energy expenditure (24EE) was measured in a respiration chamber under four conditions: 1) before weight loss (body weight = 77.9 kg), 2) during weight loss (63.9 kg), 3) after realimentation (62.5 kg), and 4) 6-15 mo after the study diet with ad libitum diet (67.7 kg). The 14 +/- 8 kg (mean +/- SD) weight loss produced a decrease in 24EE of 1498 +/- 1138 kJ/d (P < 0.001), ie, a decrease of weight of 107 kJ.kg body wt-1.d-1. The subsequent 24EE (conditions 3 and 4) remained lower than the value before weight loss. A significant correlation was found between changes before and after weight regain in basal respiratory quotient (RQ) and the spontaneous rate of body-weight gain after cessation of the period of low energy intake (r = 0.89, P < 0.01); this suggests that the value of the postabsorptive RQ may be a predictor of relapse of weight gain. After discontinuation of the low energy diet, an elevated postabsorptive RQ shows that the endogenous lipid oxidation is low, a condition favoring weight gain.

Extracapsular tumor spread and the risk of local, axillary and supraclavicular recurrence in node-positive, premenopausal patients with breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: Extracapsular tumor spread (ECS) has been identified as a possible risk factor for breast cancer recurrence, but controversy exists regarding its role in decision making for regional radiotherapy. This study evaluates ECS as a predictor of local, axillary, and supraclavicular recurrence. PATIENTS AND METHODS: International Breast Cancer Study Group Trial VI accrued 1475 eligible pre- and perimenopausal women with node-positive breast cancer who were randomly assigned to receive three to nine courses of classical combination chemotherapy with cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, and fluorouracil. ECS status was determined retrospectively in 933 patients based on review of pathology reports. Cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using methods for competing risks analysis. Adjustment factors included treatment group and baseline patient and tumor characteristics. The median follow-up was 14 years. RESULTS: In univariable analysis, ECS was significantly associated with supraclavicular recurrence (HR = 1.96; 95% confidence interval 1.23-3.13; P = 0.005). HRs for local and axillary recurrence were 1.38 (P = 0.06) and 1.81 (P = 0.11), respectively. Following adjustment for number of lymph node metastases and other baseline prognostic factors, ECS was not significantly associated with any of the three recurrence types studied. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the decision for additional regional radiotherapy should not be based solely on the presence of ECS.