Handling high level of censoring for endovascular aortic repair risk prediction

Feature selection is important in medical field for many reasons. However, selecting important variables is a difficult task with the presence of censoring that is a unique feature in survival data analysis. This paper proposed an approach to deal with the censoring problem in endovascular aortic repair survival data through Bayesian networks. It was merged and embedded with a hybrid feature selection process that combines cox's univariate analysis with machine learning approaches such as ensemble artificial neural networks to select the most relevant predictive variables. The proposed algorithm was compared with common survival variable selection approaches such as; least absolute shrinkage and selection operator LASSO, and Akaike information criterion AIC methods. The results showed that it was capable of dealing with high censoring in the datasets. Moreover, ensemble classifiers increased the area under the roc curves of the two datasets collected from two centers located in United Kingdom separately. Furthermore, ensembles constructed with center 1 enhanced the concordance index of center 2 prediction compared to the model built with a single network. Although the size of the final reduced model using the neural networks and its ensembles is greater than other methods, the model outperformed the others in both concordance index and sensitivity for center 2 prediction. This indicates the reduced model is more powerful for cross center prediction.

Regional climate gradients in precipitation and temperature in response to climate teleconnections in the Greater Everglades ecosystem of South Florida

Precipitation and temperature in Florida responds to climate teleconnections from both the Pacific and Atlantic regions. In this region south of Lake Okeechobee, encompassing NWS Climate Divisions 5, 6, and 7, modern movement of surface waters are managed by the South Florida Water Management District and the US Army Corps of Engineers for flood control, water supply, and Everglades restoration within the constraints of the climatic variability of precipitation and evaporation. Despite relatively narrow, low-relief, but multi-purposed land separating the Atlantic Ocean from the Gulf of Mexico, South Florida has patterns of precipitation and temperature that vary substantially on spatial scales of 101–102 km. Here we explore statistically significant linkages to precipitation and temperature that vary seasonally and over small spatial scales with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Over the period from 1952 to 2005, ENSO teleconnections exhibited the strongest influence on seasonal precipitation. The Multivariate ENSO Index was positively correlated with winter (dry season) precipitation and explained up to 34 % of dry season precipitation variability along the southwest Florida coast. The AMO was the most influential of these teleconnections during the summer (wet season), with significant positive correlations to South Florida precipitation. These relationships with modern climate parameters have implications for paleoclimatological and paleoecological reconstructions, and future climate predictions from the Greater Everglades system.

Tree Island Response to Fire and Flooding in the Short-Hydroperiod Marl Prairie Grasslands of the Florida Everglades

Within the marl prairie grasslands of the Florida Everglades, USA, the combined effects of fire and flooding usually lead to very significant changes in tree island structure and composition. Depending on fire severity and post-fire hydroperiod, these effects vary spatially and temporally throughout the landscape, creating a patchy post-fire mosaic of tree islands with different successional states. Through the use of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and three predictor variables (marsh water table elevation at the time of fire, post-fire hydroperiod, and tree island size), along with logistic regression analysis, we examined the probability of tree island burning and recovering following the Mustang Corner Fire (May to June 2008) in Everglades National Park. Our data show that hydrologic conditions during and after fire, which are under varying degrees of management control, can lead to tree island contraction or loss. More specifically, the elevation of the marsh water table at the time of the fire appears to be the most important parameter determining the severity of fire in marl prairie tree islands. Furthermore, in the post-fire recovery phase, both tree island size and hydroperiod during the first year after the fire played important roles in determining the probability of tree island recovery, contraction, or loss.

Response of spring diatoms to CO2 availability in the Western North Pacific as determined by next-generation sequencing

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) technologies have enabled us to determine phytoplankton community compositions at high resolution. However, few studies have adopted this approach to assess the responses of natural phytoplankton communities to environmental change. Here, we report the impact of different CO2 levels on spring diatoms in the Oyashio region of the western North Pacific as estimated by NGS of the diatom-specific rbcL gene (DNA), which encodes the large subunit of RubisCO. We also examined the abundance and composition of rbcL transcripts (cDNA) in diatoms to assess their physiological responses to changing CO2 levels. A short-term (3-day) incubation experiment was carried out on-deck using surface Oyashio waters under different pCO2 levels (180, 350, 750, and 1000 µatm) in May 2011. During the incubation, the transcript abundance of the diatom-specific rbcL gene decreased with an increase in seawater pCO2 levels. These results suggest that CO2 fixation capacity of diatoms decreased rapidly under elevated CO2 levels. In the high CO2 treatments (750 and 1000 µatm), diversity of diatom-specific rbcL gene and its transcripts decreased relative to the control treatment (350µatm), as well as contributions of Chaetocerataceae, Thalassiosiraceae, and Fragilariaceae to the total population, but the contributions of Bacillariaceae increased. In the low CO2 treatment, contributions of Bacillariaceae also increased together with other eukaryotes. These suggest that changes in CO2 levels can alter the community composition of spring diatoms in the Oyashio region. Overall, the NGS technology provided us a deeper understanding of the response of diatoms to changes in CO2 levels in terms of their community composition, diversity, and photosynthetic physiology.

Experiment: Metabolic shifts in the Antarctic fish Notothenia rossii in response to rising temperature and PCO2

Introduction Ongoing ocean warming and acidification increasingly affect marine ecosystems, in particular around the Antarctic Peninsula. Yet little is known about the capability of Antarctic notothenioid fish to cope with rising temperature in acidifying seawater. While the whole animal level is expected to be more sensitive towards hypercapnia and temperature, the basis of thermal tolerance is set at the cellular level, with a putative key role for mitochondria. This study therefore investigates the physiological responses of the Antarctic Notothenia rossii after long-term acclimation to increased temperatures (7°C) and elevated PCO2 (0.2 kPa CO2) at different levels of physiological organisation. Results For an integrated picture, we analysed the acclimation capacities of N. rossii by measuring routine metabolic rate (RMR), mitochondrial capacities (state III respiration) as well as intra- and extracellular acid-base status during acute thermal challenges and after long-term acclimation to changing temperature and hypercapnia. RMR was partially compensated during warm- acclimation (decreased below the rate observed after acute warming), while elevated PCO2 had no effect on cold or warm acclimated RMR. Mitochondrial state III respiration was unaffected by temperature acclimation but depressed in cold and warm hypercapnia-acclimated fish. In both cold- and warm-exposed N. rossii, hypercapnia acclimation resulted in a shift of extracellular pH (pHe) towards more alkaline values. A similar overcompensation was visible in muscle intracellular pH (pHi). pHi in liver displayed a slight acidosis after warm normo- or hypercapnia acclimation, nevertheless, long-term exposure to higher PCO2 was compensated for by intracellular bicarbonate accumulation. Conclusion The partial warm compensation in whole animal metabolic rate indicates beginning limitations in tissue oxygen supply after warm-acclimation of N. rossii. Compensatory mechanisms of the reduced mitochondrial capacities under chronic hypercapnia may include a new metabolic equilibrium to meet the elevated energy demand for acid-base regulation. New set points of acid-base regulation under hypercapnia, visible at the systemic and intracellular level, indicate that N. rossii can at least in part acclimate to ocean warming and acidification. It remains open whether the reduced capacities of mitochondrial energy metabolism are adaptive or would impair population fitness over longer timescales under chronically elevated temperature and PCO2.

Self-cutting and prospective repetition of self-harm: studies of emergency department presentations in Ireland

Background Self-harm places an individual at increased risk of future self-harm and suicide, and indicates distress and maladaptive coping. Those who present to hospital with self-cutting form a significant minority of self-harm patients who are at increased risk of prospective repetition of self-harm and suicide compared with those presenting with intentional overdose. In addition to increased risk, there is emerging evidence of demographic, psychological, clinical, and social differences between those presenting with self-cutting and those presenting with overdose. Aim and Key Objectives The aim of the current doctoral work was to examine in detail the association between presenting with self-cutting and risk of prospective repetition. The objectives were: to identify evidence-based risk factors for repetition of self-harm among those presenting to emergency departments with self-harm; to compare demographic and presentation characteristics and prospective repetition across presentations of self-cutting only, self-cutting plus intentional overdose, and intentional overdose only; to compare prospective repetition and other characteristics within self-cutting presentations based on the type of treatment received; to compare self-cutting and intentional overdose patients on psychological risk and protective factors for repetition; and to examine the lived experience of engaging in repeated overdose and self-cutting. Methods The current doctoral work used a mixed-methods approach and is comprised of one systematic review and four empirical studies. The empirical studies were two registry-based prospective studies of Irish hospital presentations of self-harm, one prospective structured interview study, and one qualitative study using Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis. Results The systematic review identified several consistent and emerging risk factors for repetition of self-harm, compared to which self-cutting had a medium-sized effect. The registry studies demonstrated that the involvement of self-cutting, particularly less medically severe selfcutting, confers an increased risk of 1-month and 12-month repetition among Irish index selfharm presentations. The structured psychological study detected higher hopelessness and lower non-reactivity to inner experience among those presenting with self-cutting, and higher depression among those who repeated self-harm. Repeaters had lower baseline levels of protective psychological factors than non-repeaters and continued to have higher depression and hopelessness at follow-up. Finally, the qualitative study indicated that self-harm is a purposeful action taken in response to an overwhelming situation and is evaluated afterwards in terms of personal and social effects. Chosen method of self-harm seemed to be influenced by the desired outcome of the self-harm act, capability, accessibility and previous experience. Conclusion Despite limitations in terms of recruitment rates, the work presented in this thesis is innovative in examining the issue of the association between self-cutting and repetition from multiple perspectives. No one factor can reliably predict all repetition but self-cutting represents one consistent and easily detected risk factor for repetition. Those who present with self-cutting exhibit significant differences on demographic, clinical, and psychological variables compared with those presenting with intentional overdose, and seem to exhibit a more vulnerable profile. However, those who present with self-cutting do not form a discrete or homogenous group, and self-harm methods and levels of suicidal intent are liable to fluctuate over time.

Hydrological Response of East China to the Variation of East Asian Summer Monsoon

Copyright © 2016 Fuxing Li et al.The sensitivity of hydrologic variables in East China, that is, runoff, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture to the fluctuation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), is evaluated by the Mann-Kendall correlation analysis on a spatial resolution of 1/4° in the period of 1952-2012. The results indicate remarkable spatial disparities in the correlation between the hydrologic variables and EASM. The regions in East China susceptible to hydrological change due to EASM fluctuation are identified. When the standardized anomaly of intensity index of EASM (EASMI) is above 1.00, the runoff of Haihe basin has increased by 49% on average, especially in the suburb of Beijing and Hebei province where the runoff has increased up to 105%. In contrast, the runoff in the basins of Haihe and Yellow River has decreased by about 27% and 17%, respectively, when the standardized anomaly of EASMI is below -1.00, which has brought severe drought to the areas since mid-1970s. The study can be beneficial for national or watershed agencies developing adaptive water management strategies in the face of global climate change.

Occupant location prediction in smart buildings using association rule mining

Heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) systems are significant consumers of energy, however building management systems do not typically operate them in accordance with occupant movements. Due to the delayed response of HVAC systems, prediction of occupant locations is necessary to maximize energy efficiency. We present an approach to occupant location prediction based on association rule mining, allowing prediction based on historical occupant locations. Association rule mining is a machine learning technique designed to find any correlations which exist in a given dataset. Occupant location datasets have a number of properties which differentiate them from the market basket datasets that association rule mining was originally designed for. This thesis adapts the approach to suit such datasets, focusing the rule mining process on patterns which are useful for location prediction. This approach, named OccApriori, allows for the prediction of occupants’ next locations as well as their locations further in the future, and can take into account any available data, for example the day of the week, the recent movements of the occupant, and timetable data. By integrating an existing extension of association rule mining into the approach, it is able to make predictions based on general classes of locations as well as specific locations.

Calcite saturation and dissolution index of core-top sediment samples from the Ontong Java Plateau, Mid-Atlantic Ridge, the Caribbean and the Ceara Rise, the Indian Ocean, the Ninety-East Ridge and from the east of Madagascar

X-ray computed tomography (CT) provides an insight into the progression of dissolution in the tests of planktonic foraminifera. Four species of foraminifera (G. ruber [white], G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata) from Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Ocean core-top samples were examined by CT and SEM. Inner chamber walls began to dissolve at Delta[CO3**2-] values of 12-14 µmol/kg. Close to the calcite saturation horizon, dissolution and precipitation of calcite may occur simultaneously. Inner calcite of G. sacculifer, N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata from such sites appeared altered or replaced, whereas outer crust calcite was dense with no pores. Unlike the other species, there was no distinction between inner and outer calcite in CT scans of G. ruber. Empty calcite crusts of N. dutertrei and P. obliquiloculata were most resistant to dissolution and were present in samples where Delta[CO3**2-] ~ -20 µmol/kg. Five stages of preservation were identified in CT scans, and an empirical dissolution index, XDX, was established. XDX appears to be insensitive to initial test mass. Mass loss in response to dissolution was similar between species and sites at ~ 0.4 µg/µmol/kg. We provide calibrations to estimate Delta[CO3**2-] and initial test mass from XDX.

Investigation of escape response of Norwegian Pecten maximus

The ongoing process of ocean acidification already affects marine life and, according to the concept of oxygen- and capacity limitation of thermal tolerance (OCLTT), these effects may be exacerbated at the boarders of the thermal tolerance window. We studied the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations on clapping performance and energy metabolism of the commercially important scallop Pecten maximus. Individuals were exposed for at least 30 days to 4°C (winter) or to 10°C (spring/summer) at either ambient (0.04 kPa, normocapnia) or predicted future PCO2 levels (0.11 kPa, hypercapnia). Cold (4°C) exposed groups revealed thermal stress exacerbated by PCO2 indicated by a high mortality overall and its increase from 55% under normocapnia to 90% under hypercapnia. We therefore excluded the 4°C groups from further experimentation. Scallops at 10°C showed impaired clapping performance following hypercapnic exposure. Force production was significantly reduced although the number of claps was unchanged between normo- and hypercapnia exposed scallops. The difference between maximal and resting metabolic rate (aerobic scope) of the hypercapnic scallops was significantly reduced compared to normocapnic animals, indicating a reduction in net aerobic scope. Our data confirm that ocean acidification narrows the thermal tolerance range of scallops resulting in elevated vulnerability to temperature extremes and impairs the animal's performance capacity with potentially detrimental consequences for its fitness and survival in the ocean of tomorrow.

Thirty minutes of handgrip exercise enhances brachial artery flow-mediated dilation in response to two different shear stress profiles.

The walls of blood vessels are lined with a single-cell layer of endothelial cells. As blood flows through the arteries, a frictional force known as shear stress is sensed by mechanosensitive structures on the endothelium. Short and long term changes in shear stress can have a significant influence on the regulation of endothelial function. Acutely, shear stress triggers a pathway that culminates in the release of vasodilatory molecules from the endothelium and subsequent vasodilation of the artery. This endothelial response is known as flow mediated dilation (FMD). FMD is used as an index of endothelial function and is commonly assessed using reactive hyperemia (RH)-FMD, a method which elicits a large, short lived increase in shear stress following the release of a brief (5 min) forearm occlusion. A recent study found that a short term exposure (30 min) to a sustained elevation in shear stress potentiates subsequent RH-FMD. FMD can also result from a more prolonged, sustained increase in shear stress elicited by handgrip exercise (HGEX-FMD). There is evidence to suggest that interventions and conditions impact FMD resulting from sustained and transient shear stress stimuli differently, indicating that HGEX-FMD and RH-FMD provide different information about endothelial function. It is unknown whether HGEX-FMD is improved by short term exposure to shear stress. Understanding how exercise induced FMD is regulated is important because it contributes to blood flow responses during exercise. The study purpose was therefore to assess the impact of a handgrip exercise (intervention) induced sustained elevation in shear stress on subsequent brachial artery (BA) HGEX-FMD. Twenty healthy male participants (22±3yrs) preformed a 30-minute HGEX intervention on two experimental days. BA-FMD was assessed using either an RH or HGEX shear stress stimulus at 3 time points: pre-intervention, 10 min post and 60 min post. FMD and shear stress magnitude were determined via ultrasound. Both HGEX and RH-FMD increased significantly from pre-intervention to 10 min-post (p<0.01). These findings indicate that FMD stimulated by exercise induced increases in shear stress is potentiated by short term shear stress exposure. These findings advance our understanding regarding the regulation of endothelial function by shear stress.

Refractometry Studies of the Optical Properties of Polymer Films and the Development of Polymer Coated Refractive Index Sensors

Sensors for real-time monitoring of environmental contaminants are essential for protecting ecosystems and human health. Refractive index sensing is a non-selective technique that can be used to measure almost any analyte. Miniaturized refractive index sensors, such as silicon-on-insulator (SOI) microring resonators are one possible platform, but require coatings selective to the analytes of interest. A homemade prism refractometer is reported and used to characterize the interactions between polymer films and liquid or vapour-phase analytes. A camera was used to capture both Fresnel reflection and total internal reflection within the prism. For thin-films (d = 10 μm - 100 μm), interference fringes were also observed. Fourier analysis of the interferogram allowed for simultaneous extraction of the average refractive index and film thickness with accuracies of ∆n = 1-7 ×10-4 and ∆d < 3-5%. The refractive indices of 29 common organic solvents as well as aqueous solutions of sodium chloride, sucrose, ethylene glycol, glycerol, and dimethylsulfoxide were measured at λ = 1550 nm. These measurements will be useful for future calibrations of near-infrared refractive index sensors. A mathematical model is presented, where the concentration of analyte adsorbed in a film can be calculated from the refractive index and thickness changes during uptake. This model can be used with Fickian diffusion models to measure the diffusion coefficients through the bulk film and at the film-substrate interface. The diffusion of water and other organic solvents into SU-8 epoxy was explored using refractometry and the diffusion coefficient of water into SU-8 is presented. Exposure of soft baked SU-8 films to acetone, acetonitrile and methanol resulted in rapid delamination. The diffusion of volatile organic compound (VOC) vapours into polydimethylsiloxane and polydimethyl-co-polydiphenylsiloxane polymers was also studied using refractometry. Diffusion and partition coefficients are reported for several analytes. As a model system, polydimethyl-co-diphenylsiloxane films were coated onto SOI microring resonators. After the development of data acquisition software, coated devices were exposed to VOCs and the refractive index response was assessed. More studies with other polymers are required to test the viability of this platform for environmental sensing applications.

Electric shock causes physiological stress responses in shore crabs, consistent with prediction of pain

Animal pain is defined by a series of expectations or criteria, one of which is that there should be a physiological stress response associated with noxious stimuli. While crustacean stress responses have been demonstrated they are typically preceded by escape behaviour and thus the physiological change might be attributed to the behaviour rather than a pain experience. We found higher levels of stress as measured by lactate in shore crabs exposed to brief electric shock than non-shocked controls. However, shocked crabs showed more vigorous behaviour than controls. We then matched crabs with the same level of behaviour and still found that shocked crabs had stronger stress response compared with controls. The finding of the stress response, coupled with previous findings of long-Term motivational change and avoidance learning, fulfils the criteria expected of a pain experience.

Identification of potentially pathogenic variants in candidate breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes in BRCAX patients

Mutations within the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes account for approximately 20% of hereditary breast cancers, with a further 10%–15% being attributable to rare mutations in moderate-risk genes and common variants in low-risk genes. The genes harbouring mutations in the remaining ∼65% of hereditary breast cancers are unknown. The identification of mutation carriers in hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (hboc) families is critical for determining who is most at risk of developing the disease and therefore who should be offered risk-reducing procedures or more intensive screening, or both.

Many of the high- and moderate-risk genes for hereditary breast cancers encode proteins that work in concert to maintain genomic stability and in dna damage signalling and repair. A novel BRCA1 protein complex identified within the research group whose target genes are involved in dna repair provided novel candidates for hboc susceptibility genes. These 12 candidate genes were sequenced in a cohort of 675 affected individuals from the Kathleen Cunningham Foundation Consortium for Research into Familial Breast Cancer (kConFab) with hereditary breast or ovarian cancer, but with no mutations in known susceptibility genes (BRCAx patients). This analysis identified 20 individuals (each from a different BRCAx family) with different potentially pathogenic variants across 6 of the candidate hboc susceptibility genes. The family members of each BRCAx index case were tested for the presence of the specific mutation identified in the proband to examine segregation with disease. To further expand on the potential role of the novel candidate hboc susceptibility genes identified in this study, the genetic variation of a second cohort of 520 Northern Irish BRCAx patients is being characterized using a 61-gene panel.

Synthetic Lethal Targeting of ARID1A-Mutant Ovarian Clear Cell Tumors with Dasatinib

New targeted approaches to ovarian clear cell carcinomas (OCCC) are needed, given the limited treatment options in this disease and the poor response to standard chemotherapy. Using a series of high-throughput cell-based drug screens in OCCC tumor cell models, we have identified a synthetic lethal (SL) interaction between the kinase inhibitor dasatinib and a key driver in OCCC, ARID1A mutation. Imposing ARID1A deficiency upon a variety of human or mouse cells induced dasatinib sensitivity, both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that this is a robust synthetic lethal interaction. The sensitivity of ARID1A-deficient cells to dasatinib was associated with G₁ -S cell-cycle arrest and was dependent upon both p21 and Rb. Using focused siRNA screens and kinase profiling, we showed that ARID1A-mutant OCCC tumor cells are addicted to the dasatinib target YES1. This suggests that dasatinib merits investigation for the treatment of patients with ARID1Amutant OCCC. Mol Cancer Ther; 15(7); 1472-84. Ó2016 AACR.