An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

The effects of climate change on the coasts of Latin America and the Caribbean: Climate variability, dynamics and trends

This effort to study the effects of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean has been divided into four main parts in line with the comprehensive risk-assessment methodology developed. The outputs of this regional study are presented in four core documents: an analysis of coastal dynamics and climate variability, a study on the vulnerability of coastal areas, an evaluation of the impacts of climate change and an exploration of how all these different factors can be brought together in an assessment of the risks of the impacts of climate change on the region’s coastal areas. The overall objective of this study is to compile the specific types of information required in order to analyse the economic impacts of climate change in the coastal areas of Latin America and the Caribbean. The area covered by the study encompasses the coastlines of Latin America and the Caribbean (an area totalling approximately 72,182 km in length).

New strategies for planning and performance evaluation of wireless networks: case studies based on the cross-layer approach

The use of wireless local area networks, called WLANs, as well as the proliferation of the use of multimedia applications have grown rapidly in recent years. Some factors affect the quality of service (QoS) received by the user and interference is one of them. This work presents strategies for planning and performance evaluation through an empirical study of the QoS parameters of a voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) application in an interference network, as well as the relevance in the design of wireless networks to determine the coverage area of an access point, taking into account several parameters such as power, jitter, packet loss, delay, and PMOS. Another strategy is based on a hybrid approach that considers measuring and Bayesian inference applied to wireless networks, taking into consideration QoS parameters. The models take into account a cross layer vision of networks, correlating aspects of the physical environment, on the signal propagation (power or distance) with aspects of VoIP applications (e.g., jitter and packet loss). Case studies were carried out for two indoor environments and two outdoor environments, one of them displaying main characteristics of the Amazon region (e.g., densely arboreous environments). This last test bed was carried out in a real system because the Government of the State of Pará has a digital inclusion program called NAVEGAPARÁ.

Influence of Sm3+ doping on the dielectric properties of CaCu3Ti4O12 ceramics synthesized via autocombustion

Ca-1 -xSmxCu3Ti4O12 (x = 0.0, 0.2, 03) electronic ceramics were fabricated via the chemical route using metal nitrate solutions in order to improve the dielectric properties of this ceramic. X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis indicated the formation of a single CaCu3Ti4O12 (CCTO). Grain size of the samples doped with Sm3+ was in the range of 1-2 mu m, as opposed to 50-100 mu m in the pure samples of CCTO. The cutoff frequency with the doping was remarkably shifted, from 1 MHz (pure CCTO) to 10 MHz (doped CCTO). Meanwhile, the real dielectric (epsilon(r)) and imaginary dielectric (epsilon '') constants showed a decrease as the doping was increased. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of the Vertical Position of Maxillary Central Incisors on the Perception of Smile Esthetics Among Orthodontists and Laypersons

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

The rolling ball problem on the plane revisited

By a sequence of rollings without slipping or twisting along segments of a straight line of the plane, a spherical ball of unit radius has to be transferred from an initial state to an arbitrary final state taking into account the orientation of the ball. We provide a new proof that with at most 3 moves, we can go from a given initial state to an arbitrary final state. The first proof of this result is due to Hammersley ( 1983). His proof is more algebraic than ours which is more geometric. We also showed that generically no one of the three moves, in any elimination of the spin discrepancy, may have length equal to an integral multiple of 2 pi.

Zeros of classical orthogonal polynomials of a discrete variable

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Stieltjes functions and discrete classical orthogonal polynomials

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Effects of food processing and fibre content on the digestibility, energy intake and biochemical parameters of Blue-and-gold macaws (Ara ararauna L. - Aves, Psittacidae)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

An Experimental Study on the Effect of Temperature on Piezoelectric Sensors for Impedance-Based Structural Health Monitoring

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effects of laser beam energy on the pulsed Nd:YAG laser welding of thin sheet corrosion resistant materials

The aim of this study was to value the possibility to join, for pulsed Nd:YAG laser welding, thin foils lap joints for sealing components in corrosive environment. Experimental investigations were carried out using a pulsed neodymium: yttrium aluminum garnet laser weld to examine the influence of the pulse energy in the characteristics of the weld fillet. The pulse energy was varied from 1.0 to 2.5 J at increments of 0.25 J with a 4 ms pulse duration. The base materials used for this study were AISI 316L stainless steel and Ni-based alloys foils with 100 mu m thickness. The welds were analyzed by electronic and optical microscopy, tensile shear tests and micro hardness. The results indicate that pulse energy control is of considerable importance to thin foil weld quality because it can generate good mechanical properties and reduce discontinuities in weld joints. The ultimate tensile strength of the welded joints increased at first and then decreased as the pulse energy increased. In all the specimens, fracture occurred in the top foil heat-affected zone next to the fusion line. The microhardness was almost uniform across the parent metal, HAZ and weld metal. A slight increase in the fusion zone and heat-affected zone compared to those measured in the base metal was observed. This is related to the microstructural refinement in the fusion zone, induced by rapid cooling of the laser welding. The process appeared to be very sensitive to the gap between couples.

Fitting the frequency-dependent parameters in the Bergeron line model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pressure distribution on the frontal disk for turbulent flows in a radial diffuser

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implications of stillage land disposal: A critical review on the impacts of fertigation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cytotoxic, biochemical and genotoxic effects of biodiesel produced by different routes on ZFL cell line

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)