The Proposed Financial Transaction Tax – Extraterritorial Effect, Tax Evasion and Other Legal Problems Facing the Proposal

The main topic of this master’s thesis is the proposed EU directive on a financial transaction tax. Ten Member States which want to enact the directive by using enhanced cooperation are currently negotiating the contents of the proposal. This tax would be levied on specific products which are traded on the financial markets. As an example the transaction of stocks would be taxed at a percentage of 0.1 percent, and the transaction of derivatives at a percentage of 0.01 percent. The proposed financial transaction tax would enter into force in said ten countries but it would still have effects on those countries, which are not planning on participating in this taxation system. This is one of the main reasons why this tax has faced a lot of opposition in several European Union countries. The main legal problems the tax is predicted to have are tax evasion, double taxation, and extraterritorial effect. The Commission has stated that it is aiming to reach certain objectives with the financial transaction tax. These objectives are for example to stabilise the financial markets following the financial crisis, and to deter tax evasion. Commission has defended the planning of the financial transaction tax by stating that the tax is likely to reach its objectives. The planning of the financial transaction tax began already in 2011 when the Commission published the first draft of the proposal. Following this the proposal was last amended in 2013, but the participating Member States are currently still negotiating the contents of the proposal. The participating Member States published a statement in December 2015 in which they promised that there will be a decision made about the financial transaction tax by the end of June 2016.

Forecasting exchange rates in the presence of instabilities

Many exchange rate papers articulate the view that instabilities constitute a major impediment to exchange rate predictability. In this thesis we implement Bayesian and other techniques to account for such instabilities, and examine some of the main obstacles to exchange rate models' predictive ability. We first consider in Chapter 2 a time-varying parameter model in which fluctuations in exchange rates are related to short-term nominal interest rates ensuing from monetary policy rules, such as Taylor rules. Unlike the existing exchange rate studies, the parameters of our Taylor rules are allowed to change over time, in light of the widespread evidence of shifts in fundamentals - for example in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Focusing on quarterly data frequency from the crisis, we detect forecast improvements upon a random walk (RW) benchmark for at least half, and for as many as seven out of 10, of the currencies considered. Results are stronger when we allow the time-varying parameters of the Taylor rules to differ between countries. In Chapter 3 we look closely at the role of time-variation in parameters and other sources of uncertainty in hindering exchange rate models' predictive power. We apply a Bayesian setup that incorporates the notion that the relevant set of exchange rate determinants and their corresponding coefficients, change over time. Using statistical and economic measures of performance, we first find that predictive models which allow for sudden, rather than smooth, changes in the coefficients yield significant forecast improvements and economic gains at horizons beyond 1-month. At shorter horizons, however, our methods fail to forecast better than the RW. And we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients variability to incorporate in the models, as the main factors obstructing predictive ability. Chapter 4 focus on the problem of the time-varying predictive ability of economic fundamentals for exchange rates. It uses bootstrap-based methods to uncover the time-specific conditioning information for predicting fluctuations in exchange rates. Employing several metrics for statistical and economic evaluation of forecasting performance, we find that our approach based on pre-selecting and validating fundamentals across bootstrap replications generates more accurate forecasts than the RW. The approach, known as bumping, robustly reveals parsimonious models with out-of-sample predictive power at 1-month horizon; and outperforms alternative methods, including Bayesian, bagging, and standard forecast combinations. Chapter 5 exploits the predictive content of daily commodity prices for monthly commodity-currency exchange rates. It builds on the idea that the effect of daily commodity price fluctuations on commodity currencies is short-lived, and therefore harder to pin down at low frequencies. Using MIxed DAta Sampling (MIDAS) models, and Bayesian estimation methods to account for time-variation in predictive ability, the chapter demonstrates the usefulness of suitably exploiting such short-lived effects in improving exchange rate forecasts. It further shows that the usual low-frequency predictors, such as money supplies and interest rates differentials, typically receive little support from the data at monthly frequency, whereas MIDAS models featuring daily commodity prices are highly likely. The chapter also introduces the random walk Metropolis-Hastings technique as a new tool to estimate MIDAS regressions.

Universities and Welfare States Coping with Permanent Financial Austerity: Pressures on (Competing) Public Institutions

A chapter linking universities and welfare states to permanent financial austerity can take a shorter or a longer historical perspective. This chapter looks further back (to the postwar expansion of European welfare states) to better understand future transformations of both public institutions. Their long-term sustainability problems did not start with the financial crisis of 2008 but have been growing since the 1970s (Schäfer and Streeck 2013; Bonoli and Natali 2012; Hay and Wincott 2012). Financial austerity is not a post-crisis phenomenon. As a concept, it was used in welfare state research at least a decade earlier, although it does not seem to have been used in higher education studies until recently. Two quotations bring us to the heart of the matter: welfare states and universities are currently changing under adverse financial conditions caused by an array of interrelating and mutually reinforcing forces and their long-term financial sustainability is at stake across Europe. The welfare state is a “particular trademark of the European social model” (Svallfors 2012: 1), “the jewel in the crown” and a “fundamental part of what Europe stands for” (Giddens 2006: 14), as are tuition-free universities, the cornerstone of intergenerational social mobility in Continental Europe. The past trajectories of major types of welfare states and of universities in Europe tend to go hand in hand: first vastly expanding following the Second World War, and especially in the 1960s and 1970s, and then being in the state of permanent resource-driven and legitimacy-based “crisis” in the last two decades. Welfare states and universities, two critically important public institutions, seem to be under heavy attacks from the public, the media and politicians. Their long-term sustainability is being questioned, and solutions to their (real and perceived) problems are being sought at global, European, and national levels.

Os sistemas integrados de gestão na Administração Pública : Estratégias de desenvolvimento e reorientação organizacional. Estudo de um caso

Os Organismos públicos encontram-se, actualmente, a desenvolver estudos a nível dos Sistemas Integrados de Gestão, motivados pela necessidade que existe em adoptar novas técnicas de Gestão capazes de responder às novas exigências de informação. Em termos gerais, os Organismos públicos encontram-se numa fase de viragem na sua actuação, em que surge a necessidade de dispor de novos sistemas de informação capazes de dar resposta às exigências da Nova Gestão Pública. É certo que a Nova Gestão Pública conduz a uma maior motivação, proporcionando uma melhoria na obtenção dos resultados e modernizando a relação entre o controlo das despesas públicas e a prestação de contas a nível dos órgãos do Estado, e onde a uniformização de critérios se apresenta como um dos principais requisitos para criar condições de implementação de uma contabilidade pública que funcione como instrumento de apoio aos utilizadores da informação e, em particular, aos Órgãos de Chefia e Direcção. Este trabalho analisa o caso do Exército Português, como exemplo de um Organismo público que aproveitou a obrigatoriedade de adesão ao novo Regime de Administração Financeira do Estado, para promover a implementação de um Sistema Integrado de Gestão capaz de responder às novas exigências de informação. Analisam-se também as estratégias de actuação e reorientação organizacional utilizadas pelo Exército Português, de modo a permitir o desenvolvimento e implementação do sistema baseado na uniformização de critérios que garanta os requisitos e as técnicas de Gestão capazes de criar condições para desenvolver uma contabilidade pública que funcione como instrumento de apoio à decisão. ABSTRACT; At present, government entities are developing studies at an Integrated Management System level, impelled by the actual need of adopting new Management techniques capable of responding to the new demands regarding Information. ln global terms, government entities are reaching a turning point in its way of acting, due to the arising need of settling new information systems which provide an answer to the demands of the New Public Management. It is assured that the New Public Management leads to a higher motivation, providing an improvement in accomplishing results and modernizing the link between the control of public expenditure and presenting accounts of State Organs. It also presents the criteria standards as one of the main requirements to create implementation conditions of a public accounting which operates as a support mean to the information users and, more specifically, to the Command and Boarding Bodies. This study analyses the Portuguese Army, an example of government entity which seized the obligation of joining the New Public Financial Management Regime to promote the implementation of an Integrated Management System capable of responding to the new information demands. The performing strategies and organizational refocus used by the Portuguese Army are also analyzed in order to allow the development and implementation of the system. It is based in the standard criteria that secure the requirements and Management techniques which enable the progress of a public accounting acting as a support resource in decision-making.

Volatility Spillover and Multivariate Volatility Impulse Response Analysis of GFC News Events

This paper applies two measures to assess spillovers across markets: the Diebold Yilmaz (2012) Spillover Index and the Hafner and Herwartz (2006) analysis of multivariate GARCH models using volatility impulse response analysis. We use two sets of data, daily realized volatility estimates taken from the Oxford Man RV library, running from the beginning of 2000 to October 2016, for the S&P500 and the FTSE, plus ten years of daily returns series for the New York Stock Exchange Index and the FTSE 100 index, from 3 January 2005 to 31 January 2015. Both data sets capture both the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the subsequent European Sovereign Debt Crisis (ESDC). The spillover index captures the transmission of volatility to and from markets, plus net spillovers. The key difference between the measures is that the spillover index captures an average of spillovers over a period, whilst volatility impulse responses (VIRF) have to be calibrated to conditional volatility estimated at a particular point in time. The VIRF provide information about the impact of independent shocks on volatility. In the latter analysis, we explore the impact of three different shocks, the onset of the GFC, which we date as 9 August 2007 (GFC1). It took a year for the financial crisis to come to a head, but it did so on 15 September 2008, (GFC2). The third shock is 9 May 2010. Our modelling includes leverage and asymmetric effects undertaken in the context of a multivariate GARCH model, which are then analysed using both BEKK and diagonal BEKK (DBEKK) models. A key result is that the impact of negative shocks is larger, in terms of the effects on variances and covariances, but shorter in duration, in this case a difference between three and six months.

`A Reporter's Paper': The National Thrift News, Journalistic Autonomy and the Savings and Loan Crisis

Business journalism comes under persistent criticism for serving its historic readership of brokers and business people while lacking sufficient autonomy and failing to sufficiently question or challenge powerful corporate and economic interests. This is a dominant theme in media criticism of the savings and loan crisis⁠ and 2008 financial crisis.⁠ Against this backdrop, this dissertation asks: Is this critique valid, and if so, how can business journalism improve? To engage these questions, this dissertation examines the question of autonomy in business journalism in an unlikely place: the trade press. The central case study is coverage of the savings and loan crisis by the National Thrift News, a small financial services newspaper that won a George Polk award for its reporting in 1988. How could a small trade newspaper succeed in some instances when larger news organizations failed to connect the dots? The National Thrift News created a newsroom environment that celebrated reporter autonomy and independence. In some cases, it used its insider knowledge and consistent beat reporting to serve both its core readers and the broader society by uncovering savings and loan corruption. This study will highlight a long-running debate among theorists of journalistic professionalism by arguing that the commercial and advertising model in journalism does not inevitably compromise journalistic independence⁠ but rather can help pave a way forward for a more independent press. It therefore challenges the political economy critique of journalism, which holds that external forces such as capitalism harm press independence. This case suggests journalistic independence and individual agency remain powerful forces in newsrooms. Lastly, the dissertation argues that in an era of media downsizing, the trade press can perform an even more useful watchdog role over industry if the mainstream news media acknowledges and pursues some of the innovative trade reporting.

PANDEMIA FINANCIERA: efectos sobre la economía costarricense durante el año 2008

Resumen En el presente artículo se analizaron las principales características de la crisis financiera internacional y los efectos sobre la economía costarricense durante el 2008. Las variables claves objeto de análisis se seleccionaron a partir de las manifestaciones de voceros calificados del Gobierno y de los sectores empresariales. Entre las conclusiones más importantes se obtuvo que los efectos de la crisis financiera internacional fueron relativamente poco significativos y, las principales causas de la contracción de la economía costarricense se encuentran en factores internos, sobre todo ligados a la política cambiaria y crediticia local. Abstract This article analyzes the main features of the international financial crisis and its effects on Costa Rican economy during 2008. The key variables for analysis were selected from statements of qualified spokesmen of the Government and business sectors. Among the most important findings was that the effects of the international financial crisis were not so meaningful, and the main causes of the contraction of the Costa Rican economy are domestic factors, mainly linked to local credit and exchange policies.

Superando la crisis financiera global: una visión general de la experiencia canadiense

The first signs of a collapse in the U.S. mortgages market have proven to be more than the tip of the iceberg of unclear practices and financial products that leaded to the current economic crisis. In present-day time, when survey efforts and financial reforms are taking place, it sounds reasonable to explore the impact of the financial crisis on the Canadian economy, as it has been decidedly different from the American experience. It seems that Canadian financial systems have been largely distant from much of the financial storm. This document maintains that Canadian economic resistance is mainly attributable to a more conservative controlling environment, which minimized much of the questionable performance that drove out the world to the edge of financial crisis. Though it is not an exhaustive revision, this paper outlines the impacts of the economic crisis in Canada and highlights the basic factors that contributed to the Canadian experience.

The global crisis and unconventional monetary policy : ECB versus Fed

In the aftermath of the global economic and financial crisis, which broke-out in 2007, the major central banks started implementing so-called unconventional monetary policy measures. Following a fundamentally qualitative methodology, the aim of this paper is to compare the unconventional measures adopted by the ECB and the Fed, assessing their characteristics and also their impacts on the economy.

Foreign direct investment determinants revisited in the context of global value chains

In this paper, we aim at contributing to the new field of research that intends to bring up-to-date the tools and statistics currently used to look to the current reality given by Global Value Chains (GVC) in international trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Namely, we make use of the most recent data published by the World Input-Output Database to suggest indicators to measure the participation and net gains of countries by being a part of GVC; and use those indicators in a pooled-regression model to estimate determinants of FDI stocks in Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)-member countries. We conclude that one of the measures proposed proves to be statistically significant in explaining the bilateral stock of FDI in OECD countries, meaning that the higher the transnational income generated between two given countries by GVC, taken as a proxy to the participation of those countries in GVC, the higher one could expect the FDI entering those countries to be. The regression also shows the negative impact of the global financial crisis that started in 2009 in the world’s bilateral FDI stocks and, additionally, the particular and significant role played by the People’s Republic of China in determining these stocks.

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

LA CRISIS FINANCIERA: ¿ESTAFA, MALA GESTIÓN EMPRESARIAL, MAL MANEJO MACROECONÓMICO O UNA FALTA DE REGULACIONES? DE NUEVO LAS ENSEÑANZAS

Resumen La intensificación de la crisis a nivel global, luego de la bancarrota de Lehman Brothers en septiembre del 2008, ha provocado que el actual entorno económico y financiero sea complicado para la economía mundial, el sector financiero a nivel global y para los bancos centrales. La actual crisis deriva de muchas causas; no obstante las principales son tres: primero, aspectos macroeconómicos; segundo, la inadecuada regulación de los entes encargados, y tercero, los reguladores estimularon el rápido crecimiento de los derivados en el mercado OTC. Abstract The amplification of the global financial crisis, following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, has made the present economic and financial environment a not easy time for the world economy, the global financial system and for central banks. There are many causes from the recent financial crisis. Main could be three. First, there were macroeconomic components. Second, the inadequate oversight/regulation provided by financial market regulators. And third, federal regulators have actively encouraged the rapid growth of over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives and securities by all types of financial institutions.

Spain and Investment Arbitration: The Renewable Energy Explosion

In the past decade, Spain’s generous incentive system for renewable energy production attracted substantial foreign and national investment. However, when the global financial crisis hit, and the consequent reduction of electricity consumption, the incentives began to cause a tariff deficit in the electricity system, leading the Spanish government to cut back and then eliminate the incentives. In the wake of losses, international investors turned to investment arbitration, while national investors could only present their claims before Spanish courts. The result was a potential for differential treatment between national and foreign investors. This paper examines the incentive regime and the government’s changes to it in order to understand the investors’ claims and the reasoning that resulted in their rejections, both in national courts and in the only arbitration award issued up to now. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effect of the renewable energies situation on the investment arbitration debate within Spanish civil society.

Bäst att skriva medan vädret är kallt : En kritisk diskursanalys av svensk klimatjournalistik

Klimatkrisen är vår tids största utmaning sett till dess roll för fortsatt överlevnad på den här planeten. Det är en politisk fråga som sträcker sig från att vara en internationell angelägenhet ända ner till individnivå. Men det är också en ideologisk fråga. På grund av detta går det inte att tillräckligt understryka den roll media och klimatjournalistiken har i förmedlingen av dessa frågor. Klimatjournalistiken har genom tiderna varierat i medial uppmärksamhet och ersätts främst av ekonomiska nyheter och rapportering kring internationella konflikter. Den senaste toppen för miljönyheter var kring FN:s klimatkonferens i Köpenhamn 2009, i samband med den globala finanskrisen. Köpenhamns misslyckande av ett enat avtal ledde fram till klimatmötet i Paris 2015, samma höst som flyktingkrisen var högt upp på medias dagordning. Denna uppsats avser att kritiskt analysera de klimatjournalistiska diskurserna tiden innan de båda konferenserna med målet att dokumentera utvecklingen över tid. Uppsatsen fokuserar på den diskursiva gestaltningen av aktörer, ansvar och underliggande strukturer och värderingar.   För det första fann analysen att både COP15 och COP21 innehöll starkt närvarande finansiella aspekter i sina politiska resonemang. Detta utmanar forskning som tidigare har behandlat klimat och ekonomi som vitt skilda ämnen och argumenterar för ett nytt förhållningssätt. För det andra fann analysen att gestaltningen av klimatkrisen varierade mellan de båda konferenserna. I diskursen 2009 sågs den som ett hot medan diskursen 2015 såg klimatkrisen som just en kris. Båda fallen ansåg att klimatkrisen var ett problem för andra aktörer än Sverige, för “dem”. 

Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.