Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

An assessment of the impact of local processes on dust lifting in martian climate models

Simulation of the lifting of dust from the planetary surface is of substantially greater importance on Mars than on Earth, due to the fundamental role that atmospheric dust plays in the former’s climate, yet the dust emission parameterisations used to date in martian global climate models (MGCMs) lag, understandably, behind their terrestrial counterparts in terms of sophistication. Recent developments in estimating surface roughness length over all martian terrains and in modelling atmospheric circulations at regional to local scales (less than O(100 km)) presents an opportunity to formulate an improved wind stress lifting parameterisation. We have upgraded the conventional scheme by including the spatially varying roughness length in the lifting parameterisation in a fully consistent manner (thereby correcting a possible underestimation of the true threshold level for wind stress lifting), and used a modification to account for deviations from neutral stability in the surface layer. Following these improvements, it is found that wind speeds at typical MGCM resolution never reach the lifting threshold at most gridpoints: winds fall particularly short in the southern midlatitudes, where mean roughness is large. Sub-grid scale variability, manifested in both the near-surface wind field and the surface roughness, is then considered, and is found to be a crucial means of bridging the gap between model winds and thresholds. Both forms of small-scale variability contribute to the formation of dust emission ‘hotspots’: areas within the model gridbox with particularly favourable conditions for lifting, namely a smooth surface combined with strong near-surface gusts. Such small-scale emission could in fact be particularly influential on Mars, due both to the intense positive radiative feedbacks that can drive storm growth and a strong hysteresis effect on saltation. By modelling this variability, dust lifting is predicted at the locations at which dust storms are frequently observed, including the flushing storm sources of Chryse and Utopia, and southern midlatitude areas from which larger storms tend to initiate, such as Hellas and Solis Planum. The seasonal cycle of emission, which includes a double-peaked structure in northern autumn and winter, also appears realistic. Significant increases to lifting rates are produced for any sensible choices of parameters controlling the sub-grid distributions used, but results are sensitive to the smallest scale of variability considered, which high-resolution modelling suggests should be O(1 km) or less. Use of such models in future will permit the use of a diagnosed (rather than prescribed) variable gustiness intensity, which should further enhance dust lifting in the southern hemisphere in particular.

Local spaces: open minds - inspirational ideas for managing lowland commons and other green spaces

The Chiltern commons are typical of those in the south east of England: small and numerous, but with the potential to provide important natural green space whilst contributing to environmental sustainability. In order to keep commons in good heart, they need to be managed. However, as activities such as grazing and coppicing become unviable on the commons, owners need to find sustainable roles beyond traditional agricultural and silvicultural practices. This paper examines ways of making management pay. It begins by exploring the economic, social and environmental challenges of sustainable management within the context of contemporary life. Section 2 identifies the different ways in which revenue contributions might be made towards the management of commons. Section 3 examines the relevant legal and other restrictions and Section 4 offers insights into where management proposals might offer multiple positive benefits, but also where there is the potential to cause conflict with environmental and social interests. Section 5 explores alternative funding streams for commons. Finally, Section 6 concludes with practical tips for the owners and managers of commons in the Chilterns and identifies areas for further research. Full references, links and resources are provided in the footnotes and appendix.

An ASIFT-based local registration method for satellite imagery

Imagery registration is a fundamental step, which greatly affects later processes in image mosaic, multi-spectral image fusion, digital surface modelling, etc., where the final solution needs blending of pixel information from more than one images. It is highly desired to find a way to identify registration regions among input stereo image pairs with high accuracy, particularly in remote sensing applications in which ground control points (GCPs) are not always available, such as in selecting a landing zone on an outer space planet. In this paper, a framework for localization in image registration is developed. It strengthened the local registration accuracy from two aspects: less reprojection error and better feature point distribution. Affine scale-invariant feature transform (ASIFT) was used for acquiring feature points and correspondences on the input images. Then, a homography matrix was estimated as the transformation model by an improved random sample consensus (IM-RANSAC) algorithm. In order to identify a registration region with a better spatial distribution of feature points, the Euclidean distance between the feature points is applied (named the S criterion). Finally, the parameters of the homography matrix were optimized by the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm with selective feature points from the chosen registration region. In the experiment section, the Chang’E-2 satellite remote sensing imagery was used for evaluating the performance of the proposed method. The experiment result demonstrates that the proposed method can automatically locate a specific region with high registration accuracy between input images by achieving lower root mean square error (RMSE) and better distribution of feature points.

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate

Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.

Local star formation triggered by supernova shocks in magnetized diffuse neutral clouds

In this work, considering the impact of a supernova remnant (SNR) with a neutral magnetized cloud we derived analytically a set of conditions that are favourable for driving gravitational instability in the cloud and thus star formation. Using these conditions, we have built diagrams of the SNR radius, R(SNR), versus the initial cloud density, n(c), that constrain a domain in the parameter space where star formation is allowed. This work is an extension to previous study performed without considering magnetic fields (Melioli et al. 2006, hereafter Paper I). The diagrams are also tested with fully three-dimensional MHD radiative cooling simulations involving a SNR and a self-gravitating cloud and we find that the numerical analysis is consistent with the results predicted by the diagrams. While the inclusion of a homogeneous magnetic field approximately perpendicular to the impact velocity of the SNR with an intensity similar to 1 mu G within the cloud results only a small shrinking of the star formation zone in the diagram relative to that without magnetic field, a larger magnetic field (similar to 10 mu G) causes a significant shrinking, as expected. Though derived from simple analytical considerations these diagrams provide a useful tool for identifying sites where star formation could be triggered by the impact of a supernova blast wave. Applications of them to a few regions of our own Galaxy (e.g. the large CO shell in the direction of Cassiopeia, and the Edge Cloud 2 in the direction of the Scorpious constellation) have revealed that star formation in those sites could have been triggered by shock waves from SNRs for specific values of the initial neutral cloud density and the SNR radius. Finally, we have evaluated the effective star formation efficiency for this sort of interaction and found that it is generally smaller than the observed values in our own Galaxy (SFE similar to 0.01-0.3). This result is consistent with previous work in the literature and also suggests that the mechanism presently investigated, though very powerful to drive structure formation, supersonic turbulence and eventually, local star formation, does not seem to be sufficient to drive global star formation in normal star-forming galaxies, not even when the magnetic field in the neutral clouds is neglected.

Clustering and diffusion in a symplectic map lattice with non-local coupling

We study a symplectic chain with a non-local form of coupling by means of a standard map lattice where the interaction strength decreases with the lattice distance as a power-law, in Such a way that one can pass continuously from a local (nearest-neighbor) to a global (mean-field) type of coupling. We investigate the formation of map clusters, or spatially coherent structures generated by the system dynamics. Such clusters are found to be related to stickiness of chaotic phase-space trajectories near periodic island remnants, and also to the behavior of the diffusion coefficient. An approximate two-dimensional map is derived to explain some of the features of this connection. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural effects and hydrogen bonds on N,N `-di(methoxycarbonylsulfenyl)urea, [CH(3)OC(O)SNH](2)CO, studied by experimental and theoretical methods

Pure N,N`-di(methoxycarbonylsulfenyl)urea, [CH(3)OC(O)SNH](2)CO, is quantitatively prepared by the hydrolysis reaction of CH(3)OC(O)SNCO and characterized by (1)H NMR, GC-MS and FTIR spectroscopy techniques. Structural and conformational properties are analyzed using a combined approach with data obtained from X-ray diffraction, vibrational spectra and theoretical calculation methods. The IR and Raman spectra for normal and deuterated species are reported. The crystal structure of [CH(3)OC(O)SNH](2)CO was determined by X-ray diffraction methods. The substance crystallizes in the orthorhombic P2(1)2(1)2 space group with a = 9.524(2), b = 12.003(1), c = 4.481 (1) angstrom, and Z = 2 moieties in the unit cell. The molecule is sited on a twofold crystallographic axis (C(2)) parallel to c and shows the anti-anti conformation (S-N single bonds antiperiplanar with respect to the opposite C-N single bonds in sulfenyl-urea-sic group). Neighboring molecules are arranged in a chain motif that extends along the C(2)-axis and is held by bifurcated NH center dot center dot center dot O center dot center dot center dot HN intermolecular bonds. A local planar symmetry is observed in the crystal for the central -SN(H)C(O)N(H)S- skeleton. Experimental and calculated data allow to trace this structural feature to the occurrence of N-H center dot center dot center dot O=C hydrogen bonding interactions. Calculated vibrational and structural properties are in good agreement with the experimentally determined features. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ON CLOSED GEODESICS IN THE LEAF SPACE OF SINGULAR RIEMANNIAN FOLIATIONS

In this paper we prove the existence of closed geodesics in the leaf space of some classes of singular Riemannian foliations (s.r.f.), namely s.r.fs. that admit sections or have no horizontal conjugate points. We also investigate the shortening process with respect to Riemannian foliations.

The Gauss-Kronecker curvature of minimal hypersurfaces in four-dimensional space forms

LetQ(4)( c) be a four-dimensional space form of constant curvature c. In this paper we show that the infimum of the absolute value of the Gauss-Kronecker curvature of a complete minimal hypersurface in Q(4)(c), c <= 0, whose Ricci curvature is bounded from below, is equal to zero. Further, we study the connected minimal hypersurfaces M(3) of a space form Q(4)( c) with constant Gauss-Kronecker curvature K. For the case c <= 0, we prove, by a local argument, that if K is constant, then K must be equal to zero. We also present a classification of complete minimal hypersurfaces of Q(4)( c) with K constant.

Extended local labor markets due to high speed trains : Visualization of estimations in the Swedish national travel demand forecasting tool, SAMPERS

Wider economic benefits resulting from extended geographical mobility is one argument for investments in high-speed rail. More specifically, the argument for high-speed trains in Sweden has been that they can help to further spatially extend labor market regions which in turn has a positive effect on growth and development. In this paper the aim is to cartographically visualize the potential size of the labor markets in areas that could be affected by possible future high-speed trains. The visualization is based on the forecasts of labor mobility with public transport made by the Swedish national mobility transport forecasting tool, SAMPERS, for two alternative high-speed rail scenarios. The analysis, not surprisingly, suggests that the largest impact of high-speed trains results in the area where the future high speed rail tracks are planned to be built. This expected effect on local labor market regions of high-speed trains could mean that possible regional economic development effects also are to be expected in this area. However, the results, in general, from the SAMPERS forecasts indicaterelatively small increases in local labor market potentials.

How do neighbouring populations affect local population change over time?

This study covers a period when society changed from a pre-industrial agricultural society to a post-industrial service-producing society. Parallel with this social transformation, major population changes took place. In this study, we analyse how local population changes are affected by neighbouring populations. To do so we use the last 200 years of local population change that redistributed population in Sweden. We use literature to identify several different processes and spatial dependencies in the redistribution between a parish and its surrounding parishes. The analysis is based on a unique unchanged historical parish division, and we use an index of local spatial correlation to describe different kinds of spatial dependencies that have influenced the redistribution of the population. To control inherent time dependencies, we introduce a non-separable spatial temporal correlation model into the analysis of population redistribution. Hereby, several different spatial dependencies can be observed simultaneously over time. The main conclusions are that while local population changes have been highly dependent on the neighbouring populations in the 19th century, this spatial dependence have become insignificant already when two parishes is separated by 5 kilometres in the late 20th century. Another conclusion is that the time dependency in the population change is higher when the population redistribution is weak, as it currently is and as it was during the 19th century until the start of industrial revolution.