A nemzetközi kereskedelem környezeti hatásának elemzése a karbonlábnyom segítségével

Napjainkban egyre többet hallunk a fogyasztói társadalom kialakulásáról és ennek környezetre gyakorolt hatásáról. A klímaváltozással kapcsolatban ma már konszenzus van abban, hogy az antropogén tevékenység hozzájárul a globális hőmérséklet-emelkedéshez (IPCC, 2007). Az emissziók környezeti hatásainak értékeléséhez szükség van egy olyan fenntarthatósági indikátorra, amely a döntéshozói szinten is segítségül hívható. Az ún. karbonlábnyom egy mutatószámba sűrítve megadja az emissziók környezeti hatását a fenntarthatósági korlátok tükrében, és hasznos indikátor lehet arra, hogy felhívja a döntéshozók figyelmét, mely területeken van nagy szükség a beavatkozásra. A világ országai a globalizáció során egyre inkább gazdaságilag függő helyzetbe kerültek egymással, részesei a nemzetközi gazdasági és kereskedelmi rendszernek. Az emissziók környezetterhelésének vizsgálatánál nem szabad figyelmen kívül hagyni, hogy nyitott gazdaságú országokról van szó, így a környezeti hatások vizsgálatánál a nemzetközi kereskedelem környezeti hatását is vizsgálni kell. Sok ország a nemzetközi kereskedelem révén biokapacitást is importál és függőségbe kerül az exportáló országok gazdaságától és ökológiai tőkéjétől is. Mivel a termelés és a fogyasztás egymástól térben is elkülönül, ezért lényeges kérdés, hogy a nemzetközi kereskedelem milyen hatással van egy ország természeti tőkéjére és fenntarthatóságára. A vizsgálat során felmerül a felelősség kérdése is: a termelőkre vagy a fogyasztókra hárítsák rá a kormányok a szén-dioxid-kibocsátás felelősségét és költségét.

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

Klímaváltozás és az európai lepkeszúnyogok. Az areamodellezés módszertani kérdései

The future northward expansion of the arthropod vectors of leishmaniasis caused by climate change seems to be essential veterinary and medical problem. Our aim was to build and evaluate a Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to assess the potential effects of climate change on five European sandfly species. The studied species – Phlebotomus ariasi Tonn., P. neglectus Tonn., P. papatasi Scop., P. perfiliewi Parrot, P. perniciosus Newst., P. sergenti Parrot, P. similis Perfiliev, P. tobbi Adler, Theodor et Lourie – are important vectors of the parasite Leishmania infantum or other Leishmania species. The projections were based on REMO regional climate model with European domain. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. Three types of climatic parameters were used for every month (averaged in the 30-years periods). The model was supported by VBORNET digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method). Iterative model evaluation was done by summarizing two types of model errors based on an aggregated distribution. The results show that the best model results can be achieved by leaving 5-5 percentiles from the two extrema of the mean temperature, 2-2 percentiles from the two extrema of the minimum temperature, 0 percentile from the minimum of and 8 percentiles from the maximum of the precipitation.

Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species

The potential future distribution of four Mediterranean pines was aimed to be modeled supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The studied species were Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, and Pinus pinea. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The model results show explicit shift of the distributions to the north in case of three of the four studied species. The future (2041-70) climate of Western Hungary seems to be suitable for Pinus pinaster.

Basic measurements of radiation from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) in the years 1992 to 2012, reference list of 6378 datasets

In the framework of the global energy balance, the radiative energy exchanges between Sun, Earth and space are now accurately quantified from new satellite missions. Much less is known about the magnitude of the energy flows within the climate system and at the Earth surface, which cannot be directly measured by satellites. In addition to satellite observations, here we make extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the global energy balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combine these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for the 5th IPCC assessment report to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean downward surface solar and thermal radiation values near 185 and 342 Wm**-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations. Combined with an estimated surface absorbed solar radiation and thermal emission of 161 Wm**-2 and 397 Wm**-2, respectively, this leaves 106 Wm**-2 of surface net radiation available for distribution amongst the non-radiative surface energy balance components. The climate models overestimate the downward solar and underestimate the downward thermal radiation, thereby simulating nevertheless an adequate global mean surface net radiation by error compensation. This also suggests that, globally, the simulated surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, around 20 and 85 Wm**-2 on average, state realistic values. The findings of this study are compiled into a new global energy balance diagram, which may be able to reconcile currently disputed inconsistencies between energy and water cycle estimates.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and calcification during incubation experiments with Mytilus edulis and Grassostrea gigas, 2006

Ocean acidification resulting from human emissions of carbon dioxide has already lowered and will further lower surface ocean pH. The consequent decrease in calcium carbonate saturation potentially threatens calcareous marine organisms. Here, we demonstrate that the calcification rates of the edible mussel (Mytilus edulis) and Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) decline linearly with increasing pCO2. Mussel and oyster calcification may decrease by 25 and 10%, respectively, by the end of the century, following the IPCC IS92a scenario (?740 ppmv in 2100). Moreover, mussels dissolve at pCO2 values exceeding a threshold value of ?1800 ppmv. As these two species are important ecosystem engineers in coastal ecosystems and represent a large part of worldwide aquaculture production, the predicted decrease of calcification in response to ocean acidification will probably have an impact on coastal biodiversity and ecosystem functioning as well as potentially lead to significant economic loss.

Avaliação da evapotranspiração na microrregião do Seridó: uma contribuição metodológica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq

Cálculo das incertezas climáticas sobre América do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferição através das redes neurais artificiais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A globális éghajlatváltozás interaktív és komplex forgatókönyveinek modellezése és elemzése

A tanulmány célja a JCM szimulációs modell alkalmazásának részletes, és reprodukálható módon történő bemutatása saját kidolgozású forgatókönyvek alapján. A modell és a modellszimulációk az ember/felhasználó és a gép közötti interaktivitást mutatják be. Ennek érdekében a tanulmány részletesen foglalkozik az éghajlatváltozás modellezésének történetével, a főbb modelltípusokkal, valamint a humán-társadalmi tényezők és az éghajlatváltozás közötti dinamikus kapcsolatok lehetséges változásának előrejelzési kérdéseivel. A saját forgatókönyveinek kidolgozásához, és az interaktív klímamodell szimulációjának tervezéséhez felhasználja az IPCC és az UNEP GEO programjai keretében készült forgatókönyveket. A tanulmány az IPCC és a GEO jelentéseket az interaktív klímamodellezési előrejelzések előzményeinek tekinti, mert mindkét program felhasználja a különböző klímamodellekkel végzett számítások és előrejelzések eredményeit is a forgatókönyvei és az ajánlásai kidolgozásához, valamint jelentősen kiszélesíti az előretekintési munkálatokban részt vevők körét.

Seawater carbonate chemistry and processes during experiments with a coral community, 2008

Ocean acidification represents a key threat to coral reefs by reducing the calcification rate of framework builders. In addition, acidification is likely to affect the relationship between corals and their symbiotic dinoflagellates and the productivity of this association. However, little is known about how acidification impacts on the physiology of reef builders and how acidification interacts with warming. Here, we report on an 8-week study that compared bleaching, productivity, and calcification responses of crustose coralline algae (CCA) and branching (Acropora) and massive (Porites) coral species in response to acidification and warming. Using a 30-tank experimental system, we manipulated CO2 levels to simulate doubling and three- to fourfold increases [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projection categories IV and VI] relative to present-day levels under cool and warm scenarios. Results indicated that high CO2 is a bleaching agent for corals and CCA under high irradiance, acting synergistically with warming to lower thermal bleaching thresholds. We propose that CO2 induces bleaching via its impact on photoprotective mechanisms of the photosystems. Overall, acidification impacted more strongly on bleaching and productivity than on calcification. Interestingly, the intermediate, warm CO2 scenario led to a 30% increase in productivity in Acropora, whereas high CO2 lead to zero productivity in both corals. CCA were most sensitive to acidification, with high CO2 leading to negative productivity and high rates of net dissolution. Our findings suggest that sensitive reef-building species such as CCA may be pushed beyond their thresholds for growth and survival within the next few decades whereas corals will show delayed and mixed responses.

Information from Paleoclimate Archives

Compilation of figure recipes for all figures of Chapter 5 of IPCC Working Group I, Fifth Assessment Report. In addition to figure captions, figure recipes are supposed to serve as detailed figure creation info. If not publicly available elsewhere, processed data underlying the respective figures are also provided here.

Seawater carbonate chemistry, length, mass and otholith development of spiny damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus during experiments, 2011

Determining which marine species are sensitive to elevated CO2 and reduced pH, and which species tolerate these changes, is critical for predicting the impacts of ocean acidification on marine biodiversity and ecosystem function. Although adult fish are thought to be relatively tolerant to higher levels of environmental CO2, very little is known about the sensitivity of juvenile stages, which are usually much more vulnerable to environmental change. We tested the effects of elevated environmental CO2 on the growth, survival, skeletal development and otolith (ear bone) calcification of a common coral reef fish, the spiny damselfish Acanthochromis polyacanthus. Newly hatched juveniles were reared for 3 wk at 4 different levels of PCO2(seawater) spanning concentrations already experienced in near-reef waters (450 µatm CO2) to those predicted to occur over the next 50 to 100 yr in the IPCC A2 emission scenario (600, 725, 850 µatm CO2). Elevated PCO2 had no effect on juvenile growth or survival. Similarly, there was no consistent variation in the size of 29 different skeletal elements that could be attributed to CO2 treatments. Finally, otolith size, shape and symmetry (between left and right side of the body) were not affected by exposure to elevated PCO2, despite the fact that otoliths are composed of aragonite. This is the first comprehensive assessment of the likely effects of ocean acidification on the early life history development of a marine fish. Our results suggest that juvenile A. polyacanthus are tolerant of moderate increases in environmental CO2 and that further acidification of the ocean will not, in isolation, have a significant effect on the early life history development of this species, and perhaps other tropical reef fishes

Propuesta sostenible para mitigar los efectos climáticos adversos en una ciudad costera de Argentina

Los indicadores de sostenibilidad climática constituyen herramientas fundamentales para complementar las políticas de ordenamiento del territorio urbano y pueden beneficiar la calidad de vida sus habitantes. En el presente trabajo se diseñó un indicador climático urbano para la ciudad de Bahía Blanca considerando variables meteorológicas y análisis de la percepción social. El mismo permitió delimitar la ciudad en cuatro regiones bien diferenciadas entre sí. A partir de entonces, se realizó una propuesta sostenible para mitigar los efectos adversos del clima a partir de la aplicación del método DPSIR. Las mismas estuvieron destinadas a mejorar las condiciones de vida de la población. Los resultados permitieron considerar que una pronta implementación de la misma junto con una activa participación de los actores sociales y los tomadores de decisiones es necesaria para mejorar las condiciones actuales en la que se encuentra la ciudad. Con las medidas propuestas, la población local sabrá cómo actuar ante la ocurrencia de distintos eventos extremos, eventos de desconfort climático, etc. Al ser un método sencillo, la metodología aplicada en este estudio puede replicarse en otras ciudades del mundo con el objetivo de mejorar la calidad de vida de los habitantes.

Adaptación del sector turístico al cambio climático en España. La importancia de las acciones a escala local y en empresas turísticas

El 5º Informe del IPCC (Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, 2014) señala que el turismo será una de las actividades económicas que mayores efectos negativos experimentará en las próximas décadas debido al calentamiento térmico del planeta. En España, el turismo es una fuente principal de ingresos y de creación de puestos de trabajo en su economía. De ahí que sea necesaria la puesta en marcha de medidas de adaptación a la nueva realidad climática que, en nuestro país, va a suponer cambios en el confort climático de los destinos e incremento de extremos atmosféricos. Frente a los planes de adaptación al cambio climático en la actividad turística, elaborados por los gobiernos estatal y regional, que apenas se han desarrollado en España, la escala local muestra interesantes ejemplos de acciones de adaptación al cambio climático, desarrolladas tanto por los municipios (energía, transporte, vivienda, planificación urbanística) como por la propia empresa turística (hoteles, campings, apartamentos). Medidas de ahorro de agua y luz, fomento del transporte público y de las energías limpias, creación de zonas verdes urbanas y adaptación a los extremos atmosféricos destacan como acciones de mitigación del cambio climático en los destinos turísticos principales de nuestro país.

The evolving and increasing need for climate change research on the oceans

The 3rd International Symposium on the Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans was held in Santos, Brazil, in March 2015, convened by the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES), the North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES), and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO (IOC), and organized locally by the Oceanographic Institute, University of Sao Paulo (IO-USP). The symposium was designed to do two things. First, to get updates on new scientific developments that would address recognized uncertainties that remained from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report and to contribute to building bridges between research in the natural and social sciences in respect to the human dimensions of climate change, with a focus on coastal communities, management objectives, governance and adaptation measures. The choice of the venue in Santos, Brazil, was aimed to stimulate and widen this thematic discussion in Latin America and southern Atlantic regions, where there still are important knowledge gaps and scientific, politic and societal challenges to be overcome. The meeting was attended by 280 participants from 38 countries, contributing 336 oral and poster presentations. This paper summarizes the main outcomes of the symposium and introduces a number of papers submitted to this special issue.