An overview of some historical brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inflation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inflation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

An overview of some historical Brazilian macroeconomic series and some open questions

This paper presents an overview of the Brazilian macroeconomy by analyzing the evolution of some specific time series. The presentation is made through a sequence of graphs. Several remarkable historical points and open questions come up in the data. These include, among others, the drop in output growth as of 1980, the clear shift from investments to government current expenditures which started in the beginning of the 80s, the notable way how money, prices and exchange rate correlate in an environment of permanently high inHation, the historical coexistence of high rates of growth and high rates of inHation, as well as the drastic increase of the velocity of circulation of money between the 70s and the mid-90s. It is also shown that, although net external liabilities have increased substantially in current dollars after the Real Plan, its ratio with respect to exports in 2004 is practically the same as the one existing in 1986; and that residents in Brazil, in average, owed two more months of their final income (GNP) to abroad between 1995-2004 than they did between 1990 and 1994. Variance decompositions show that money has been important to explain prices, but not output (GDP).

Improvement on the sales forecast accuracy for a fast growing company by the best combination of historical data usage and clients segmentation

Industrial companies in developing countries are facing rapid growths, and this requires having in place the best organizational processes to cope with the market demand. Sales forecasting, as a tool aligned with the general strategy of the company, needs to be as much accurate as possible, in order to achieve the sales targets by making available the right information for purchasing, planning and control of production areas, and finally attending in time and form the demand generated. The present dissertation uses a single case study from the subsidiary of an international explosives company based in Brazil, Maxam, experiencing high growth in sales, and therefore facing the challenge to adequate its structure and processes properly for the rapid growth expected. Diverse sales forecast techniques have been analyzed to compare the actual monthly sales forecast, based on the sales force representatives’ market knowledge, with forecasts based on the analysis of historical sales data. The dissertation findings show how the combination of both qualitative and quantitative forecasts, by the creation of a combined forecast that considers both client´s demand knowledge from the sales workforce with time series analysis, leads to the improvement on the accuracy of the company´s sales forecast.

Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

Slogans políticos em campanhas eleitorais no Rio Grande do Norte: a mídia na disputa ideológica.

To the observe the periods of electoral campaigns, we can realize sharply the abundance of political propaganda that announces the candidates, their campaign record, their proposed and everything that can carry them to the victory in the urns. The propaganda is today an essential tool in the votes dispute, in consequence of this, there is, in Brazil, the increasing participation of the Politics Parties in seminars of electoral marketing. They are varied strategies of the media used in the divulging of the candidacies, among them the slogan. Instigated by the explicit relation media/political, this work intends to investigate the ideologies (values) announced by the slogans of political propaganda that circulated in electoral periods. Thus, we base on the theory of the Circle of Bakhtin, who considers the statement as unit of the verbal communication, and that conceives the language as phenomenon dialogical, and, too, in the conceptions of alien words, social voices and dialogical relations formulated by the referred theory. We use, for better to comprehend, the slogan as strategy mediatic, of the classical study done by Olivier Reboul concerning the slogan; and, like starting point of a conception about ideology, studied John Thompson to comprehends the ideological phenomenon. Our corpus it constitutes of 14 political slogans announced in the campaigns for mayor of the cities in Natal and Mossoró, both located in Rio Grande do Norte s state, Brazil, in 1996, 2000 and 2004. For the analysis of these slogans, we consider the social-historical context in which were announced, being contemplated the linguistic and discursive aspect, according to the following methodological order: the identification of alien words (interdiscours); the social voices and the kinds dialogical relations established; and, finally, the ideology announced by the statement. This way, we can arrive to the conclusion that in the electoral context occurs a true ideologies war , in other words, in the political game of an electoral campaign, the slogans announces different values, which vary in several factors function, for example, the historicity, the subject that enunciates, the discursive positionings.

Inscrição discursiva da subjetividade homoafetiva na G Magazine

This thesis, which is entitled Registration discourse of subjectivity homo affective in G Magazine, is proposed to describe / interpret modes of subjectivity that is set in the discourse of homo affective confessions, recorded in letters addressed to G Magazine. The study is based on the theories of Discourse Analysis French, with a focus in the discussions Foucaultian remarkably discursive practices that produce meanings about the processes of subjectivity and sexuality. Methodologically, the research is of appreciative/qualitative character and falls in the field of Applied Linguistics (LA), at a press that the historical and cultural reality of the subject, establishing dialogues with many other fields of knowledge, which deal of the subject matter of speech and sexuality. Data analysis indicates that the magazine G Magazine works as a discursive space, where individuals on condition that homosexual, take it as the place that it gives security to talk to you, it's worrying, because the nature of the journal it suggests a belonging to the same discursive formation - that of homo affective . Thus, some of which are felt constructed for the investigation of the letters selected for this study showed that the forms of subjectivity of such homo affective are emerging in the game of the bans, the other is that as a subject of sexuality and to materialize in operation the confession. These homo affective, in a gesture of incessant registration of alternatives to be subject to its own truth of their sexuality, to seek his party in the case, the psychologist, a referral, a "light" that can guide them in an attempt to get rid of the forms of to subject. Installs itself in this way, as a point of resistance: the attempt to dissociate itself be of some states of submission, opening itself to other ways of being subject

Linguagem, cognição e mundo: o livro do desassossego e a construção discursiva da realidade

This study analyzes the processes of meaning construction in the Livro do Desassossego, by semi-heteronym Bernardo Soares - Fernando Pessoa. We use theoretical grounds from an interface between Cognitive Linguistics and Textual Linguistics to observe how certain linguistic mechanisms build a reality that tells us of a time, a being and his conceptions of language and writing. We focus on description and explanation of procedures of categorization and referentiation accomplished, for example, through metaphor and metonymy. For the construction of the intended theoretical interface, we use analytical categories proposed and developed by the Socio-cognitive Approach of Language, Conceptual Metaphor Theory and Mental Space Theory. Armed with this theoretical background, we observed the dynamics of language in relation to its social, cultural and historical features, as well as the cognitive aspects that underlie it. We seek, therefore, encourage discussions about the functioning of language considering primarily the creative processes that allow us to organize and shape our experiences. We also try to provide an approximation of Linguistics, Literature and Philosophy, with a view to relations between language structure, cognitive activity and socio-cultural organization. From the results obtained, we found that a literary text attests, with a particular property, the mutual relations between language, cognition and culture, as indicates cognitive approach to language studies

O leitor universitário e a construção das práticas de ler e escrever textos impressos e digitais

The construction of a mapping of the practices of reading and writing printed and digital texts, declared by graduating students from the Bachelor s degree in Science and Technology (BCT), has provided us the analysis of the course they are making in such a socio-historical moment characterized by the revolution of the post-paper. In this sense, the general objective of this research is to understand how that construction works under the point of view of those graduating students. For this, our reflection has been guided by the search of answers for some questions which have presented to us: what reading and writing conceptions BCT graduating students have; what reading and writing practices those collaborators develop; what collections they declare to have access to; what differences they declare to have between printed and digital reading and writing along the different social roles they develop; what the reader/writer identity relations of those collaborators are. To achieving the plausible answers, we have gathered a corpus composed by texts of three genres of the argument order: academic profiles (or self-portrait), opinion articles and argumentative letters. Besides, we have made semi-structured interviews and questionnaires in the online tool of the Google Docs. The methodology which supports this academic work is the qualitative research (SIGNORINI; CAVALCANTI, 1998)of ethnographic direction (THOMAS, 1993; ANDRÉ, 1995) in Applied Linguistics (CELANI, 2000; MOITA-LOPES, 2006) and the theoretical contribution comes from the bakhtinian perspective of language conception (BAKHTIN [1929] 1981); the socio-historical writing construction (LÉVY, 1996; CHARTIER, R., 1998, 2002, 2007; COSCARELLI, 2006; CHARTIER, A., 2007; ARAÚJO, 2007; COSCARELLI; RIBEIRO, 2007; XAVIER, 2009; MARCUSCHI; XAVIER, 2010); from the studies of the pedagogy of the writing (GIROUX, 1997); from the literacy studies understood as sociocultural practice, plural and situated (TFOUNI, 1988; KLEIMAN, 1995; TINOCO, 2003, 2008; OLIVEIRA; KLEIMAN, 2008), from the studies about identity in postmodernity (HALL, 2003; BAUMAN, 2005). The results of the analysis have pointed at a multiplicity of reading/writing practices of printed and digital texts developed by the BCT graduating students due to the coexistence of the modality printed and that one derived from the new mobile devices. In that multiplicity, the prevalent idea of the collaborators is that there is a continuum between printed texts and digital texts (not a dichotomy), since the option of reading/writing printed texts or digital ones is always linked to specific communication situations, which involve participants, objectives, strategies, values, (dis)advantages, besides (re)creation of discursive genres in function of the mobile devices to which those collaborators have access in the different spheres of activities that they participate. All of that has caused a deep intersection in the identity traces of college students readers/writers in the 21st century which cannot be ignored by academic formation

Um ser (tão) de vozes: o estilo e o acabamento estético na poesia de Patativa do Assaré

The present study aims at investigating the style of the Cearense 1poet Patativa do Assaré in his poetic discourse Cante lá que eu canto cá (2004). Such choice is due to the fact that Assaré‟s poetry is full of regional identities as well of different voices. In other words, our purpose is to analyze the way the author aesthetically expresses his own voice and the voice of others in his work. This study is based on a social and historical model of language, with language construed as a discourse practice with emphasis on the key concepts of style, voices, subject and dialogic relationships (BAKHTIN, 1992, 2003, 1995). Our documental research is situated within the area of Applied Linguistics and presents an interface with Literature. We start out with the premise that in this type of investigation knowledge is built from language. In this sense, we must consider the social relationships in which language is produced, as well as the world which (in) determines, interferes, represents, interpenetrates or else, reformulates language and the indisciplinary character of the research

O ensaio jornalístico na revista Veja: uma análise multidimensional

This work has as objective generality to make a multidimensional analysis in the genre journalistic assay, communicative genre that, beyond complex and multimodal, presents hybrid characteristics. Specifically, with the intention to propose defining criteria of the cited genre, this research looks for to establish differences and similarities between the assay and other genres of the same sphere, from the description and interpretation of used multimodal resources. The analysis of the formal, schematical and rhetorical resources identified in the formatting of the journalistic assay sample that the analyses are supported in the socio-semiotic and socio-rhetorical approaches. In the formal dimension, we contemplate elements that constitute design of the text, including the forms of representation from the typography, the colors, images, as well as the aspects communicative-linguistics: the modalization indices, the communicative operators and the category time; in the schematical dimension, we present the organizational structure, considering the rhetorical movements postulates for Swales (1990) and in the rhetorical dimension we observe the categories: who writes, for who it writes, on what it writes and where writes. The adopted methodologicals postulates are of qualitative nature and the procedure is documentary, data that in we are valid them written texts of this genre as analysis object. Corpus it is constituted by a composed sample for 14 extracted texts of a set of 173 propagated journalistic assays weekly for the magazine Veja, in the period between August of 2004 and January of 2008. The analysis of the data showed that the journalistic assay, object of this study, materializes through multiple symbolic representations and multiple subjects that turn since a small episode of the daily facts of great social relevance in the present time, of historical and cultural nature, nationwide or international. Used for the first time by Montaigne in 1580, to assign, in saying of the proper author, written fast on its life and historical events, which could nor be remembered later , the term `assay' was enriched with other specifications, of form to enclose the one that if they call scientific assay today, academic assay, journalistic assay and other types of specific assays. These denominations have to see with the enrollment of the members of diverse of practices communities, in virtue of the multiplicity of activities carried through in these spheres. The conclusions the one that we arrive had been the following ones: 1. the discursive genre is not a pure entity, in virtue of the multiplicity of situations where the sorts if insert in the social actions; 2. the institutions define the configuration of one definitive genre, also its proper assignment, since for backwards of all discursive genre a voice exists to discipline - institutional voice, and in the case of the assays for analyzed us, the institutional voice if it presents, really, as a defining trace; 3. the journalistic assay, for its multiple symbolic representations, multiple subjects and for passing explicit or implicit opinions of its author, resembles it other genres, being able, therefore, to be inserted in a colony of opinionatives genres

Vozes sociais e dimensão ética da lingüística aplicada: a construção discursiva da área nos CBLAs

This research deals with Applied Linguistics and its structure as a scientific field, in compliance with knowledge produced within the range of the Brazilian Congresses of Applied Linguistics (CBLA). The purpose of this research is to understand the meanings disclosed by the voices that make up the scientific discourse on this field, pointing toward its course of development, the ethical position that is peculiar to it and how this position is represented in its scientific practice. The scientific discourse typical of the production of knowledge of Applied Linguistics is now construed as leading to practices that define the production of this field of learning whose object is to study man and man s relationship to language. Theoretical groundwork is anchored on the work the Social Sciences have developed on the paradigmatic crises of science and the social changes resulting from modern and post-modern times, on Applied Linguistics researches on the identity of the field of study, its courses and ethics, and on the bakhtinian theory that supports a view of language as a social practice built under the aegis of the subject s ethics and responsibility. The corpus of this work comprises qualitative and quantitative data made into articles presented at the CBLA. The research methodology conforms to the interpretive paradigm and has the concept of social voices as its category of analysis. Results point towards the progress of Applied Linguistics that, from its role as a mediator discipline between linguistic theory and practical applications, is assuming a position in a field of study of its own, independent, with transdisciplinary characteristics, pursuing through its quests and redefinitions to get closer to the dimension of life and assuming the ethical position of taking on responsibility for its doings and sayings