Predicting market direction with hidden Markov models

This paper develops the model of Bicego, Grosso, and Otranto (2008) and applies Hidden Markov Models to predict market direction. The paper draws an analogy between financial markets and speech recognition, seeking inspiration from the latter to solve common issues in quantitative investing. Whereas previous works focus mostly on very complex modifications of the original hidden markov model algorithm, the current paper provides an innovative methodology by drawing inspiration from thoroughly tested, yet simple, speech recognition methodologies. By grouping returns into sequences, Hidden Markov Models can then predict market direction the same way they are used to identify phonemes in speech recognition. The model proves highly successful in identifying market direction but fails to consistently identify whether a trend is in place. All in all, the current paper seeks to bridge the gap between speech recognition and quantitative finance and, even though the model is not fully successful, several refinements are suggested and the room for improvement is significant.

Finding the hidden influencers

This thesis is a first step in the search for the characteristics of funders, and the underlying motivation that drives them to participate in crowdfunding. The purpose of the study is to identify demographics and psychographics that influence a funder’s willingness to financially support a crowdfunding project (WFS). Crowdfunding, crowdsourcing and donation literature are combined to create a conceptual model in which age, gender, altruism and income, together with several control variables, are expected to have an influence on a funder’s WFS. Primary data collection was conducted using a survey, and a dataset of 175 potential crowdfunders was created. The data is analysed using a multiple regression and provided several interesting results. First of all, age and gender have a significant effect on WFS, males and young adults until the age of 30 have a higher intention to give money to crowdfunding projects. Second, altruism is significantly positively related to WFS, meaning that the funders do not just care about the potential rewards they could receive, but also about the benefits that they create for the entrepreneur and the people affected by the crowdfunding project. Third, the moderation effect of income was found to be insignificant in this model. It shows that income does not affect the strength of the relationship between the age, gender and altruism, and WFS. This study provides important theoretical contributions by, to the best of my knowledge, being the first study to quantitatively investigate the characteristics of funders and using the funder as the unit of analysis. Moreover, the study provides important insights for entrepreneurs who wish to target the crowd better in order to attract and retain more funders, thereby increasing the chance of success of their project.

Modeling sequencing errors by combining Hidden Markov models.

Among the largest resources for biological sequence data is the large amount of expressed sequence tags (ESTs) available in public and proprietary databases. ESTs provide information on transcripts but for technical reasons they often contain sequencing errors. Therefore, when analyzing EST sequences computationally, such errors must be taken into account. Earlier attempts to model error prone coding regions have shown good performance in detecting and predicting these while correcting sequencing errors using codon usage frequencies. In the research presented here, we improve the detection of translation start and stop sites by integrating a more complex mRNA model with codon usage bias based error correction into one hidden Markov model (HMM), thus generalizing this error correction approach to more complex HMMs. We show that our method maintains the performance in detecting coding sequences.

“Weathering a Hidden Storm”: An Application of Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Health, and Health Services Use for Those with Diagnosable Anxiety Disorder

Abstract: Research has primarily focused on depression and mood disorders, but little research has been devoted to an examination of mental health services use amongst those with diagnosable anxiety disorder (Wittchen et al., 2002; Bergeron et al., 2005). This study examined the possible predicting factors for mental health services utilization amongst those with identifiable anxiety disorder in the Canadian population. The methods used for this study was the application of Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Health Services Use, where predisposing, need and enabling characteristics were regressed on the dependent variable of mental health services use. This study used the Canadian Community Health Survey (cycle 1.2: Mental Health and Well-Being) in a secondary data analysis. Several multiple logistics models predicted the likelihood to seek and use mental health services. Predisposing characteristics of gender and age, Enabling characteristics of education and geographical location, and those with co-occurring mood disorders were at the greatest increased likelihood to seek and use mental health services.

"Weathering a hidden storm" : an application of Andersen's behavioral model of health, and health services use for those with diagnosable anxiety disorder

"Weathering a Hidden Storm": An App~ication of Andersen's Behaviora~ Mode~ of Hea~th, and Hea~th Services Use for Those With Diagnosab~e Anxiety Disorder Research has primarily focused on depression and mood disorders, but little research has been devoted to an examination of mental health services use amongst those with diagnosable anxiety disorder (Wittchen et al., 2002; Bergeron et al., 2005). This study examined the possible predicting factors for mental health services utilization amongst those with identifiable anxiety disorder in the Canadian population. The methods used for this study was the application of Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Services Use, where predisposing, need and enabling 111 characteristics were regressed on the dependent variable of mental health services use. This study used the Canadian Community Health Survey (cycle 1.2: Mental Health and Well- Being) in a secondary data analysis. Several multiple logistics models predicted the likelihood to seek and use mental health services. Predisposing characteristics of gender and age, Enabling characteristics of education and geographical location, and those with co-occurring mood disorders were at the greatest increased likelihood to seek and use mental health services.

Hidden Motives: An Analysis of Online ESL Teacher Hiring Practices in Japan and Hong Kong

Hidden Motives: An Analysis of Online English as a Second Language (ESL) Teacher Hiring Practices in Japan and Hong Kong is a qualitative research paper examines and compares two large-scale Asian English language teaching programs: Japan’s Japan Exchange and Teaching (JET) Programme (JET Programme, 2010) and Hong Kong’s Native-speaking English Teacher (NET) Scheme (NET Scheme, 2013). Both government sponsored programs recruit internationally and invite participants to work within each country’s public schools while living amongst local communities and both programs utilize their online presence to attract, inform, and recruit individuals. The purpose of this research is to investigate whether the JET and NET websites are transparent with their governmental motives aside from improving their students’ English language abilities. While JET and NET websites were interrogated, the research questions were regularly revisited to determine if the two sites made any underlying motives clear to the candidates. The research, supported by academic literature, exposed the JET Programme website to be a branch of the Japanese government’s soft power campaign, whereby JET teachers were hired firstly as potential advocates for Japan and Japanese culture rather than English teachers. Conversely, the NET Scheme appeared to be solely commissioned for English language improvement as reflected by their website. Findings from the research can provide insight to applicants to help them decide if they want to participant in these programs. Without clearly understanding the background that motivates these programs, participants may unknowingly be used to support the host government’s agendas.

The Hidden Truths of Self-Presentation, Self-Disclosure, and Deception on Online Dating Profiles: A Call for Change

The way in which individuals seek romantic partners has changed considerably in the past decades, most notably through online dating sites (ODSs). Despite the possibility of misrepresentation amongst client users, such sites continue to grow in popularity because ODSs provide a large pool from which individuals can select and attract potential partners. While much research has been undertaken on ODSs, little empirical research has examined postsecondary students’ use of ODSs. Therefore, this study sought to investigate why postsecondary students have become involved with and how they present themselves on ODSs. The researcher surveyed 20 postsecondary students and conducted in-depth interviews with 2 participants who use ODSs. Although the limited sample prevented results from being generalized, quantitative and qualitative analyses suggest that participants became involved with ODSs for various purposes, such as seeking long-term relationships and/or marriage partners, or simply exploring or visiting ODSs out of curiosity. Findings indicate that ODS users’ physical appearance and/or “attractiveness” is considered the strongest predictor of relationship success. The study discusses how participants’ self-presentation affects outcomes of ODS usage, particularly when negative self-identification and presentation corresponding to factors such as individuals’ weight and age are taken into account.

Apprentissage de représentations sur-complètes par entraînement d’auto-encodeurs

Les avancés dans le domaine de l’intelligence artificielle, permettent à des systèmes informatiques de résoudre des tâches de plus en plus complexes liées par exemple à la vision, à la compréhension de signaux sonores ou au traitement de la langue. Parmi les modèles existants, on retrouve les Réseaux de Neurones Artificiels (RNA), dont la popularité a fait un grand bond en avant avec la découverte de Hinton et al. [22], soit l’utilisation de Machines de Boltzmann Restreintes (RBM) pour un pré-entraînement non-supervisé couche après couche, facilitant grandement l’entraînement supervisé du réseau à plusieurs couches cachées (DBN), entraînement qui s’avérait jusqu’alors très difficile à réussir. Depuis cette découverte, des chercheurs ont étudié l’efficacité de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement, telles que l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs traditionnels(SAE) [5, 38], et l’empilement d’auto-encodeur débruiteur (SDAE) [44]. C’est dans ce contexte qu’a débuté la présente étude. Après un bref passage en revue des notions de base du domaine de l’apprentissage machine et des méthodes de pré-entraînement employées jusqu’à présent avec les modules RBM, AE et DAE, nous avons approfondi notre compréhension du pré-entraînement de type SDAE, exploré ses différentes propriétés et étudié des variantes de SDAE comme stratégie d’initialisation d’architecture profonde. Nous avons ainsi pu, entre autres choses, mettre en lumière l’influence du niveau de bruit, du nombre de couches et du nombre d’unités cachées sur l’erreur de généralisation du SDAE. Nous avons constaté une amélioration de la performance sur la tâche supervisée avec l’utilisation des bruits poivre et sel (PS) et gaussien (GS), bruits s’avérant mieux justifiés que celui utilisé jusqu’à présent, soit le masque à zéro (MN). De plus, nous avons démontré que la performance profitait d’une emphase imposée sur la reconstruction des données corrompues durant l’entraînement des différents DAE. Nos travaux ont aussi permis de révéler que le DAE était en mesure d’apprendre, sur des images naturelles, des filtres semblables à ceux retrouvés dans les cellules V1 du cortex visuel, soit des filtres détecteurs de bordures. Nous aurons par ailleurs pu montrer que les représentations apprises du SDAE, composées des caractéristiques ainsi extraites, s’avéraient fort utiles à l’apprentissage d’une machine à vecteurs de support (SVM) linéaire ou à noyau gaussien, améliorant grandement sa performance de généralisation. Aussi, nous aurons observé que similairement au DBN, et contrairement au SAE, le SDAE possédait une bonne capacité en tant que modèle générateur. Nous avons également ouvert la porte à de nouvelles stratégies de pré-entraînement et découvert le potentiel de l’une d’entre elles, soit l’empilement d’auto-encodeurs rebruiteurs (SRAE).

Photothermal deflection measurement on heat transport in GaAs epitaxial layers

In this paper, we report the in-plane and cross-plane measurements of the thermal diffusivity of double epitaxial layers of n-type GaAs doped with various concentrations of Si and a p-type Be-doped GaAs layer grown on a GaAs substrate by the molecular beam epitaxial method, using the laser-induced nondestructive photothermal deflection technique. The thermal diffusivity value is evaluated from the slope of the graph of the phase of the photothermal deflection signal as a function of pump-probe offset. Analysis of the data shows that the cross-plane thermal diffusivity is less than that of the in-plane thermal diffusivity. It is also seen that the doping concentration has a great influence on the thermal diffusivity value. Measurement of p-type Be-doped samples shows that the nature of the dopant also influences the effective thermal diffusivity value. The results are interpreted in terms of a phonon-assisted heat transfer mechanism and the various scattering process involved in the propagation of phonons.

Photothermal deflection measurement on heat transport in GaAs epitaxial layers

In this paper, we report the in-plane and cross-plane measurements of the thermal diffusivity of double epitaxial layers of n-type GaAs doped with various concentrations of Si and a p-type Be-doped GaAs layer grown on a GaAs substrate by the molecular beam epitaxial method, using the laser-induced nondestructive photothermal deflection technique. The thermal diffusivity value is evaluated from the slope of the graph of the phase of the photothermal deflection signal as a function of pump-probe offset. Analysis of the data shows that the cross-plane thermal diffusivity is less than that of the in-plane thermal diffusivity. It is also seen that the doping concentration has a great influence on the thermal diffusivity value. Measurement of p-type Be-doped samples shows that the nature of the dopant also influences the effective thermal diffusivity value. The results are interpreted in terms of a phonon-assisted heat transfer mechanism and the various scattering process involved in the propagation of phonons

Photothermal deflection measurement on heat transport in GaAs epitaxial layers

In this paper, we report the in-plane and cross-plane measurements of the thermal diffusivity of double epitaxial layers of n-type GaAs doped with various concentrations of Si and a p-type Be-doped GaAs layer grown on a GaAs substrate by the molecular beam epitaxial method, using the laser-induced nondestructive photothermal deflection technique. The thermal diffusivity value is evaluated from the slope of the graph of the phase of the photothermal deflection signal as a function of pump-probe offset. Analysis of the data shows that the cross-plane thermal diffusivity is less than that of the in-plane thermal diffusivity. It is also seen that the doping concentration has a great influence on the thermal diffusivity value. Measurement of p-type Be-doped samples shows that the nature of the dopant also influences the effective thermal diffusivity value. The results are interpreted in terms of a phonon-assisted heat transfer mechanism and the various scattering process involved in the propagation of phonons

Photothermal deflection studies of GaAs epitaxial layers

Photothermal beam deflection studies were carried out with GaAs epitaxial double layers grown on semi-insulating GaAs substrates. The impurity densities in thin epitaxial layers were found to influence the effective thermal diffusivity of the entire structure.

Photoacoustic study of the effect of doping concentration on the transport properties of GaAs epitaxial layers

We report a photoacoustic (PA) study of the thermal and transport properties of a GaAs epitaxial layer doped with Si at varying doping concentration, grown on GaAs substrate by molecular beam epitaxy. The data are analyzed on the basis of Rosencwaig and Gersho’s theory of the PA effect. The amplitude of the PA signal gives information about various heat generation mechanisms in semiconductors. The experimental data obtained from the measurement of the PA signal as a function of modulation frequency in a heat transmission configuration were fitted with the phase of PA signal obtained from the theoretical model evaluated by considering four parameters—viz., thermal diffusivity, diffusion coefficient, nonradiative recombination time, and surface recombination velocity—as adjustable parameters. It is seen from the analysis that the photoacoustic technique is sensitive to the changes in the surface states depend on the doping concentration. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the photoacoustic technique as a noninvasive and nondestructive method to measure and evaluate the thermal and transport properties of epitaxial layers.