Assessing resilience of water resources systems under the impacts of climate change

This paper presents an approach to assess the resilience of a water supply system under the impacts of climate change. Changes to climate characteristics such as rainfall, evapotranspiration and temperature can result in changes to the global hydrological cycle and thereby adversely impact on the ability of water supply systems to meet service standards in the future. Changes to the frequency and characteristics of floods and droughts as well as the quality of water provided by groundwater and surface water resources are the other consequences of climate change that will affect water supply system functionality. The extent and significance of these changes underline the necessity for assessing the future functionality of water supply systems under the impacts of climate change. Resilience can be a tool for assessing the ability of a water supply system to meet service standards under the future climate conditions. The study approach is based on defining resilience as the ability of a system to absorb pressure without going into failure state as well as its ability to achieve an acceptable level of function quickly after failure. In order to present this definition in the form of a mathematical function, a surrogate measure of resilience has been proposed in this paper. In addition, a step-by-step approach to estimate resilience of water storage reservoirs is presented. This approach will enable a comprehensive understanding of the functioning of a water storage reservoir under future climate scenarios and can also be a robust tool to predict future challenges faced by water supply systems under the consequence of climate change.

An approach for identifying the limit states of resilience of a water supply system

This paper presents an approach for identifying the limit states of resilience in a water supply system when influenced by different types of pressure (disturbing) forces. Understanding of systemic resilience facilitates identification of the trigger points for early managerial action to avoid further loss of ability to provide satisfactory service availability when the ability to supply water is under pressure. The approach proposed here is to illustrate the usefulness of a surrogate measure of resilience depicted in a three dimensional space encompassing independent pressure factors. That enables visualisation of the transition of the system-state (resilience) between high to low resilience regions and acts as an early warning trigger for decision-making. The necessity of a surrogate measure arises as a means of linking resilience to the identified pressures as resilience cannot be measured directly. The basis for identifying the resilience surrogate and exploring the interconnected relationships within the complete system, is derived from a meta-system model consisting of three nested sub-systems representing the water catchment and reservoir; treatment plant; and the distribution system and end-users. This approach can be used as a framework for assessing levels of resilience in different infrastructure systems by identifying a surrogate measure and its relationship to relevant pressures acting on the system.

Crisis response planning in tunnel and road networks

Critical road infrastructure (such as tunnels and overpasses) is of major significance to society and constitutes major components of interdependent, ‘systems and networks’. Failure in critical components of these wide area infrastructure systems can often result in cascading disturbances with secondary and tertiary impacts - some of which may become initiating sources of failure in their own right, triggering further systems failures across wider networks. Perrow1) considered the impact of our increasing use of technology in high-risk fields, analysing the implications on everyday life and argued that designers of these types of infrastructure systems cannot predict every possible failure scenario nor create perfect contingency plans for operators. Challenges exist for transport system operators in the conceptualisation and implementation of response and subsequent recovery planning for significant events. Disturbances can vary from reduced traffic flow causing traffic congestion throughout the local road network(s) and subsequent possible loss of income to businesses and industry to a major incident causing loss of life or complete loss of an asset. Many organisations and institutions, despite increasing recognition of the effects of crisis events, are not adequately prepared to manage crises2). It is argued that operators of land transport infrastructure are in a similar category of readiness given the recent instances of failures in road tunnels. These unexpected infrastructure failures, and their ultimately identified causes, suggest there is significant room for improvement. As a result, risk profiles for road transport systems are often complex due to the human behaviours and the inter-mix of technical and organisational components and the managerial coverage needed for the socio-technical components and the physical infrastructure. In this sense, the span of managerial oversight may require new approaches to asset management that combines the notion of risk and continuity management. This paper examines challenges in the planning of response and recovery practices of owner/operators of transport systems (above and below ground) in Australia covering: • Ageing or established infrastructure; and • New-build infrastructure. With reference to relevant international contexts this paper seeks to suggest options for enhancing the planning and practice for crisis response in these transport networks and as a result support the resilience of Critical Infrastructure.

Community response to disasters in Indonesia : Gotong Royong; a double edged-sword

Indonesia is a country spread across wide-ranging archipelago, located in South East Asia between two oceans, the Indian and the Pacific. Indonesia is well known as an active tectonic region because it lies on top of three major active tectonic plates: the Eurasian in the North, the Indian Ocean-Australian in the South, and the Pacific plate in the East. The southern and eastern part of the country features a range of volcanic arcs, volcanic mountains, and lowlands with 500 young volcanoes, of which 128 are active and thus representing 15% of the world’s active volcanoes. In the period 2002-2007, approximately 1782 disasters occurred, with hundreds of thousands of lives lost and billions of rupiah in losses incurred: (Floods - 1183 instances, cyclones - 272 instances, and landslides - 252 instances). Of these, the 2004 Aceh tsunami and the 2006 central Java earthquake (impacting predominantly city and suburbs of Yogyakarta) were the most significant. Even so, disaster management experts believe lessons learnt from the two major natural disasters needs to be formalised into laws and institutions before another disaster occurs, regardless of the type of natural disaster – i.e. Volcano eruption or landslide; as opposed to tsunami or earthquake. Following in the wake of disasters occurring in Yogyakarta, many of its community members responded by banding together as one, with the determination of rebuilding its villages and cities through the spirit of ‘gotong royong’. The idea of social interaction; in particular as a collective, consensual, and cooperative nation; has predominantly formed the ideological basis of Indonesia’s societal nature. Many Indonesian terms cohere to this ideology, such as: ‘koperasi” (cooperatives as the basis of economic interactions), ‘musyawarah’ (consensual nature in decision making), and ‘gotong royong’ (mutual assistance). ‘Gotong royong’ has become a key cultural operator in Indonesia, in particular In Jogjakarta. Appropriately so as ‘gotong royong’ is depicted from the traditional Javanese village, where labour is accomplished through reciprocal exchange and the villagers are motivated by a general ethos of selfishness and concern for the common good. The culture of ‘gotong royong’ promotes positive values such as social harmony and mutual reciprocation in disaster-affected areas provides the necessary spirit needed to endure the hardships and for all involved. While gotong royong emphasises the positive notions of mutual family support and deep community level activity there is a potential for contrast against government lead disaster response and recovery management activities especially in settings where sporadic governance mechanisms exist and transparency and accountability in the recovery process of public infrastructure assets have been questioned. This paper thus questions whether Gotong Royong is a double-edged sword, and explores the potential marriage of community values and governance mechanisms for future disaster management planning and practice.

A critical analysis of crisis escalation models : understanding stages and severity in infrastructure disturbance

A range of authors from the risk management, crisis management, and crisis communications literature have proposed different models as a means of understanding components of crisis. A generic component of these sources has focused on preparedness practices before disturbance events and response practices during events. This paper provides a critical analysis of three key explanatory models of how crises escalate highlighting the strengths and limitations of each approach. The paper introduces an optimised conceptual model utilising components from the previous work under the four phases of pre-event, response, recovery, and post-event. Within these four phases, a ten step process is introduced that can enhance understanding of the progression of distinct stages of disturbance for different types of events. This crisis evolution framework is examined as a means to provide clarity and applicability to a range of infrastructure failure contexts and provide a path for further empirical investigation in this area.

Impact of information on intentions to vaccinate in a potential epidemic : Swine-origin Influenza A (H1N1)

Vaccination campaigns to prevent the spread of epidemics are successful only if the targeted populations subscribe to the recommendations of health authorities. However, because compulsory vaccination is hardly conceivable in modern democracies, governments need to convince their populations through efficient and persuasive information campaigns. In the context of the swine-origin A (H1N1) 2009 pandemic, we use an interactive study among the general public in the South of France, with 175 participants, to explore what type of information can induce change in vaccination intentions at both aggregate and individual levels. We find that individual attitudes to vaccination are based on rational appraisal of the situation, and that it is information of a purely scientific nature that has the only significant positive effect on intention to vaccinate.

Screening in early childhood for risk of later mental health problems : a longitudinal study

Depression in childhood or adolescence is associated with increased rates of depression in adulthood. Does this justify efforts to detect (and treat) those with symptoms of depression in early childhood or adolescence? The aim of this study was to determine how well symptoms of anxiety/depression (A-D) in early childhood and adolescence predict adult mental health. The study sample is taken from a population-based prospective birth cohort study. Of the 8556 mothers initially approached to participate 8458 agreed, of whom 7223 mothers gave birth to a live singleton baby. Children were screened using modified Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) scales for internalizing and total problems (T-P) at age 5 and the CBCL and Youth Self Report (YSR) A-D subscale and T-P scale at age 14. At age 21, a sub-sample of 2563 young adults in this cohort were administered the CIDI-Auto. Results indicated that screening at age 5 would detect few later cases of significant mental ill-health. Using a cut-point of 20% for internalizing at child age 5 years the CBCL had sensitivities of only 25% and 18% for major depression and anxiety disorders at 21 years, respectively. At age 14, the YSR generally performed a little better than the CBCL as a screening instrument, but neither performed at a satisfactory level. Of the children who were categorised as having YSR A-D at 14 years 30% and 37% met DSM-IV criteria for major depression and anxiety disorders, respectively, at age 21. Our findings challenge an existing movement encouraging the detection and treatment of those with symptoms of mental illness in early childhood.

Validating a screening tool for mental health and substance use risk in an Indigenous prison population

Introduction and Aims: The Indigenous Risk Impact Screen (IRIS) is a validated culturally appropriate and widely used tool in the community for assessing substance use and mental disorder. This research aimed to assess the utility of this tool in an Indigenous prison population. Design and Methods: The study used data collected from a cross-sectional study of mental health among indigenous inmates in Queensland custodial centres (n=395, 84% male). Participants were administered a modified version of the IRIS, and ICD-10 diagnoses of substance use, depressive and anxiety disorders obtained using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). The concurrent validity of the modified IRIS was assessed against those of the CIDI. Results: 312 people screened as high risk for a substance use disorder and 179 were high risk for mental problems. 73% of males and 88% of females were diagnosed with a mental disorder. The IRIS was an effective screener for substance use disorders, with high sensitivity (Se) of 94% and low specificity (Sp) of 33%. The screener was less effective in identifying depression (Se 82%, Sp 59%) and anxiety (Se 68%, Sp 60%). Discussion: The IRIS is the first culturally appropriate screening instrument to be validated for the risk of drug and alcohol and mental disorder among Indigenous adults in custody. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the IRIS is a valid tool for screening of alcohol and drug use risk among an incarcerated Indigenous population. The IRIS could offer an opportunity to improve the identification, treatment and health outcomes for incarcerated Indigenous adults.

PCV13 Perceptions of health during pregnancy increase the risk of cardiovascular disease

OBJECTIVES: To examine the prospective association between perception of health during pregnancy and cardiovascular risk factor of mothers 21 years after the index pregnancy. METHODS: Data used were from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP), a community- based prospective birth ohort study begun in Brisbane, Australia, in 1983. Logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Data were available for 3692 women. Women who perceived themselves as not having a straight forward pregnancy had twice the odds (adjusted OR 2.0, 95% CI 1.1-3.8) of being diagnosed with heart disease 21 years after the indexpregnancyascomparedtowomenwith a straight forward pregnancy. Apart from that, women who had complications (other than serious pregnancy complications) during the pregnancy were also at30%increased odds (adjustedOR 1.3, 95% CI 1.0-1.6) of having hypertension 21 years later. CONCLUSIONS: As a whole, our study suggests that pregnant women who perceived that they had complications and did not have a straight forward pregnancy are likely to experience poorer cardiovascular outcomes 21 years after the pregnancy.

PP39 Mental health outcomes of abortion for young women aged 18-23 years, findings from an Australian longitudinal birth cohort study

Background: Few longitudinal studies have examined the mental health outcomes of women after abortion and the results are controversial. Despite falling birth rates, teenage pregnancies remain high and over half (53%) of teenage and a third (36%) of young adult (20_24 years) pregnancies are aborted. Recent findings from a NewZealand longitudinal birth cohort linked abortion and subsequent psychiatric disorders in young women. Limited Australian data is available examining this association. Methods: Data were taken from the Mater-University Study of Pregnancy (MUSP). Running since 1981, this is a prospective birth cohort study of 7223 mothers and children. At the 21-year follow-up 3775 (52.3% of the original cohort) participants were surveyed, of these 1132 young women had complete data on pregnancy outcomes and psychiatric diagnoses from a structured interview. Binary logistic regression examined the association between five lifetime psychiatric disorders (nicotine, alcohol, cannabis, affective and anxiety disorders) and ever having an abortion or birth. Analyses adjusted for age, concurrent and maternal sociodemographic factors, and factors related to adolescent behaviour, previous mental health and family functioning. Results: A quarter of the young women (n_261) reported at least one pregnancy and 32.6% had an abortion. Abortion was significantly associated with age-adjusted OR for all the lifetime disorders. After full adjustment abortion remained significantly associated with nicotine (OR_2.1, 1.2_3.6) and alcohol disorders (OR_2.0, 1.3_3.3). Conclusion: The findings suggest that abortion in young women is independently associated with an increased risk of nicotine and alcohol disorders.

Pregnancy loss and mental health

Between 8 and 20 percent of depression in young men and women aged 18-23 is associated with pregnancy loss, according to a recent analysis of the 30 year Mater Hospital longitudinal study of mothers and children. Dr Kaeleen Dingle from the University of Queensland explains the study and discusses the implications for both men and women.

A method for predicting rain-induced instability of an individual slope

Awareness to avoid losses and casualties due to rain-induced landslide is increasing in regions that routinely experience heavy rainfall. Improvements in early warning systems against rain-induced landslide such as prediction modelling using rainfall records, is urgently needed in vulnerable regions. The existing warning systems have been applied using stability chart development and real-time displacement measurement on slope surfaces. However, there are still some drawbacks such as: ignorance of rain-induced instability mechanism, mislead prediction due to the probabilistic prediction and short time for evacuation. In this research, a real-time predictive method was proposed to alleviate the drawbacks mentioned above. A case-study soil slope in Indonesia that failed in 2010 during rainfall was used to verify the proposed predictive method. Using the results from the field and laboratory characterizations, numerical analyses can be applied to develop a model of unsaturated residual soils slope with deep cracks and subject to rainwater infiltration. Real-time rainfall measurement in the slope and the prediction of future rainfall are needed. By coupling transient seepage and stability analysis, the variation of safety factor of the slope with time were provided as a basis to develop method for the real-time prediction of the rain-induced instability of slopes. This study shows the proposed prediction method has the potential to be used in an early warning system against landslide hazard, since the FOS value and the timing of the end-result of the prediction can be provided before the actual failure of the case study slope.

Does residential dissonance impact residential mobility?

This research identifies residential mobility behaviour impacts of residential dissonance in Transit Oriented Developments (TODs) vs. non-TODs in Brisbane, Australia. Based on the characteristics of living environments (density, diversity, connectivity, and accessibility) and the travel preferences of 4545 individuals, respondents in 2009 were classified into one of four categories including: TOD consonants, TOD dissonants, non-TOD dissonants, and non-TOD consonants. Binary logistic regression analyses were employed to identify residential mobility behaviour of groups between 2009 and 2011; controlling for time varying covariates. The findings show that both TOD dissonants and TOD consonants move residences at an equal rate. However, TOD dissonants are more likely to move residences to their preferred non-TOD areas. In contrast, non-TOD dissonants not only moved residences at a lower rate, but their rate of mobility to their preferred TOD neighbourhood is also significantly lower due to costs and other associated factors. The findings suggest that discrete land use policy development is required to integrate non-TOD dissonant and TOD dissonant behaviours to support TOD development in Brisbane.

The Large Allen Cognitive Level Screen as an indicator for medication adherence among adults accessing community mental health services

Background: Medication remains the cornerstone treatment for mental illness. Cognition is one of the strongest predictors of non-adherence. The aim of this preliminary investigation was to examine the association between the Large Allen Cognitive Level Screen (LACLS) and medication adherence among a small sample of mental health service users to determine whether the LACLS has potential as a screening tool for capacity to manage medication regimens. Method: Demographic and clinical information was collected from a small sample of people who had recently accessed community mental health services. Participants then completed the LACLS and the Medication Adherence Rating Scale (MARS) at a single time point. The strength of association between the LACLS and MARS was examined using Spearman rank-order correlation. Results: A strong positive correlation between the LACLS and medication adherence (r = 0.71, p = 0.01) was evident. No participants reported the use of medication aids despite evidence of impaired cognitive functioning. Conclusion: This investigation has provided the first empirical evidence indicating that the LACLS may have utility as a screening instrument for capacity to manage medication adherence among this population. While promising, this finding should be interpreted with caveats given its preliminary nature.