Timing of bacterial carriage sampling in vaccine trials: A modelling study.

BACKGROUND Pathogenic bacteria are often asymptomatically carried in the nasopharynx. Bacterial carriage can be reduced by vaccination and has been used as an alternative endpoint to clinical disease in randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Vaccine efficacy (VE) is usually calculated as 1 minus a measure of effect. Estimates of vaccine efficacy from cross-sectional carriage data collected in RCTs are usually based on prevalence odds ratios (PORs) and prevalence ratios (PRs), but it is unclear when these should be measured. METHODS We developed dynamic compartmental transmission models simulating RCTs of a vaccine against a carried pathogen to investigate how VE can best be estimated from cross-sectional carriage data, at which time carriage should optimally be assessed, and to which factors this timing is most sensitive. In the models, vaccine could change carriage acquisition and clearance rates (leaky vaccine); values for these effects were explicitly defined (facq, 1/fdur). POR and PR were calculated from model outputs. Models differed in infection source: other participants or external sources unaffected by the trial. Simulations using multiple vaccine doses were compared to empirical data. RESULTS The combined VE against acquisition and duration calculated using POR (VEˆacq.dur, (1-POR)×100) best estimates the true VE (VEacq.dur, (1-facq×fdur)×100) for leaky vaccines in most scenarios. The mean duration of carriage was the most important factor determining the time until VEˆacq.dur first approximates VEacq.dur: if the mean duration of carriage is 1-1.5 months, up to 4 months are needed; if the mean duration is 2-3 months, up to 8 months are needed. Minor differences were seen between models with different infection sources. In RCTs with shorter intervals between vaccine doses it takes longer after the last dose until VEˆacq.dur approximates VEacq.dur. CONCLUSION The timing of sample collection should be considered when interpreting vaccine efficacy against bacterial carriage measured in RCTs.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Characteristics and comprehensiveness of adult HIV care and treatment programmes in Asia-Pacific, sub-Saharan Africa and the Americas: results of a site assessment conducted by the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA) Collaboration

INTRODUCTION HIV care and treatment programmes worldwide are transforming as they push to deliver universal access to essential prevention, care and treatment services to persons living with HIV and their communities. The characteristics and capacity of these HIV programmes affect patient outcomes and quality of care. Despite the importance of ensuring optimal outcomes, few studies have addressed the capacity of HIV programmes to deliver comprehensive care. We sought to describe such capacity in HIV programmes in seven regions worldwide. METHODS Staff from 128 sites in 41 countries participating in the International epidemiologic Databases to Evaluate AIDS completed a site survey from 2009 to 2010, including sites in the Asia-Pacific region (n=20), Latin America and the Caribbean (n=7), North America (n=7), Central Africa (n=12), East Africa (n=51), Southern Africa (n=16) and West Africa (n=15). We computed a measure of the comprehensiveness of care based on seven World Health Organization-recommended essential HIV services. RESULTS Most sites reported serving urban (61%; region range (rr): 33-100%) and both adult and paediatric populations (77%; rr: 29-96%). Only 45% of HIV clinics that reported treating children had paediatricians on staff. As for the seven essential services, survey respondents reported that CD4+ cell count testing was available to all but one site, while tuberculosis (TB) screening and community outreach services were available in 80 and 72%, respectively. The remaining four essential services - nutritional support (82%), combination antiretroviral therapy adherence support (88%), prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) (94%) and other prevention and clinical management services (97%) - were uniformly available. Approximately half (46%) of sites reported offering all seven services. Newer sites and sites in settings with low rankings on the UN Human Development Index (HDI), especially those in the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief focus countries, tended to offer a more comprehensive array of essential services. HIV care programme characteristics and comprehensiveness varied according to the number of years the site had been in operation and the HDI of the site setting, with more recently established clinics in low-HDI settings reporting a more comprehensive array of available services. Survey respondents frequently identified contact tracing of patients, patient outreach, nutritional counselling, onsite viral load testing, universal TB screening and the provision of isoniazid preventive therapy as unavailable services. CONCLUSIONS This study serves as a baseline for on-going monitoring of the evolution of care delivery over time and lays the groundwork for evaluating HIV treatment outcomes in relation to site capacity for comprehensive care.

A Swiss paradox? Higher income inequality of municipalities is associated with lower mortality in Switzerland.

It has long been surmised that income inequality within a society negatively affects public health. However, more recent studies suggest there is no association, especially when analyzing small areas. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of income inequality on mortality in Switzerland using the Gini index on municipality level. The study population included all individuals >30 years at the 2000 Swiss census (N = 4,689,545) living in 2,740 municipalities with 35.5 million person-years of follow-up and 456,211 deaths over follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression models were adjusted for age, gender, marital status, nationality, urbanization, and language region. Results were reported as hazard ratios (HR) with 95 % confidence intervals. The mean Gini index across all municipalities was 0.377 (standard deviation 0.062, range 0.202-0.785). Larger cities, high-income municipalities and tourist areas had higher Gini indices. Higher income inequality was consistently associated with lower mortality risk, except for death from external causes. Adjusting for sex, marital status, nationality, urbanization and language region only slightly attenuated effects. In fully adjusted models, hazards of all-cause mortality by increasing Gini index quintile were HR = 0.99 (0.98-1.00), HR = 0.98 (0.97-0.99), HR = 0.95 (0.94-0.96), HR = 0.91 (0.90-0.92) compared to the lowest quintile. The relationship of income inequality with mortality in Switzerland is contradictory to what has been found in other developed high-income countries. Our results challenge current beliefs about the effect of income inequality on mortality on small area level. Further investigation is required to expose the underlying relationship between income inequality and population health.

Sportmotorische Leistungsfähigkeit und schulische Leistung – Zum mediierenden Effekt der exekutiven Funktionen

Introduction: Die sportmotorische Leistungsfähigkeit (SMLF) hängt nicht nur positiv mit der körperlichen Gesundheit zusammen, sondern gilt auch als Prädiktor für die schulische Leistung (SL) (van der Niet, Hartmann, Smith, & Visscher, 2014). Um die Frage zu beantworten, wie denn zwei auf den ersten Blick so distale Merkmale zusammenhängen sollen, werden unterschiedliche erklärende Variablen diskutiert, wobei die kognitive Stimulationshypothese die exekutiven Funktionen (EF) als mediierende Variable im Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL postuliert. Die Annahme hierbei ist, dass die mit komplexen motorischen Kontrollprozessen einhergehende kognitive Beanspruchung bei einem wiederholten Ausführen von nicht-automatisierten sportbezogenen Handlungen zu einer Aktivierung und somit Förderung der EF führt (Best, 2010). EF, verstanden als höhere kognitive Prozesse, die ein zielorientiertes und situationsangepasstes Handeln erlauben, sind für den schulischen Erfolg von zentraler Bedeutung und gleichzeitig wichtige Prädiktoren der SL (Diamond, 2013). Obwohl diese Mediation seit einigen Jahren in der Literatur diskutiert wird, wurde sie bis heute noch nicht mit Hilfe längsschnittlicher Daten geprüft. Daher wird im Folgenden der mediierende Effekt der EF im Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL getestet. Methods: Im Rahmen der Studie Sport und Kognition 5.0 wurden insgesamt 237 Primarschulkinder (52.3% ♀; 11.31 ± 0.62 Jahre) zu drei Messzeitpunkten in ihrer SMLF (T1) und ihren EF (T2) getestet. Zusätzlich wurde die SL (T3) mittels objektiver Schulleistungstests (Mathematik und Deutsch) erhoben. Um die Hauptfragestellung zu prüfen, ob die SL vorwiegend mediiert über die EF durch die SMLF vorhergesagt werden kann, wurde eine bootstrapping-basierte Mediationsanalyse in AMOS 22 durchgeführt. Results: Das theoretisch abgeleitete Strukturgleichungsmodell (2 (22, N = 237) = 30.357, p = .110; CFI = .978) weist eine zufriedenstellende Anpassungsgüte auf. Erwartungsgemäss zerfällt der Zusammenhang innerhalb des Mediationsmodells zwischen der SMLF und der SL, alsbald die EF ins Modell aufgenommen werden (β = .16, p = .634). Sowohl der Zusammenhang zwischen der SMLF und den EF (β = .38, p = .039), als auch der Zusammenhang zwischen den EF und der SL fallen signifikant aus (β = .91, p = .001) und ergeben dabei eine volle Mediation über den indirekten (p = .021) und totalen Effekt (p = .001). Discussion/Conclusion: Die erstmals vorliegenden längsschnittlichen Daten bestätigen den Zusammenhang zwischen SMLF und SL bei einer Mediation über die EF und decken sich mit den, aus einem querschnittlichen Design stammenden, Befunden von van der Niet et al. (2014). Zur Steigerung der schulischen Leistung sollten zukünftige Schulsportinterventionen die SMLF von Kindern erhöhen und dabei die EF bei der Auswahl von sportlichen Aufgaben mitberücksichtigen. References: Best, J. R. (2010). Effects of physical activity on children’s executive function: Contributions of experimental research on aerobic exercise. Developmental Review, 30, 331-351. Diamond, A. (2013). Executive functions. Annual Review of Psychology, 64, 135-168. van der Niet, A. G., Hartmann, E., Smith, J. & Visscher, C. (2014). Modeling relationships between physical fitness, executive functioning, and academic achievement in primary school children. Psychology of Sport & Exercise, 15(4), 319-325.

Discovery of a highly potent anti-inflammatory epoxyisoprostane-derived lactone.

Epoxyisoprostanes EI (1) and EC (2) are effective inhibitors of the secretion of proinflammatory cytokines IL-6 and IL-12. In detailed studies toward the investigation of the molecular mode of action of these structures, a highly potent lactone (3) derived from 1 was identified. The known isoprostanoids 1 and 2 are most likely precursors of 3, the product of facile intramolecular reaction between the epoxide with the carboxylic acid in 2.

Immunodeficiency in children starting antiretroviral therapy in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND The CD4 cell count or percent (CD4%) at the start of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is an important prognostic factor in children starting therapy and an important indicator of program performance. We describe trends and determinants of CD4 measures at cART initiation in children from low-, middle-, and high-income countries. METHODS We included children aged <16 years from clinics participating in a collaborative study spanning sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the United States. Missing CD4 values at cART start were estimated through multiple imputation. Severe immunodeficiency was defined according to World Health Organization criteria. Analyses used generalized additive mixed models adjusted for age, country, and calendar year. RESULTS A total of 34,706 children from 9 low-income, 6 lower middle-income, 4 upper middle-income countries, and 1 high-income country (United States) were included; 20,624 children (59%) had severe immunodeficiency. In low-income countries, the estimated prevalence of children starting cART with severe immunodeficiency declined from 76% in 2004 to 63% in 2010. Corresponding figures for lower middle-income countries were from 77% to 66% and for upper middle-income countries from 75% to 58%. In the United States, the percentage decreased from 42% to 19% during the period 1996 to 2006. In low- and middle-income countries, infants and children aged 12-15 years had the highest prevalence of severe immunodeficiency at cART initiation. CONCLUSIONS Despite progress in most low- and middle-income countries, many children continue to start cART with severe immunodeficiency. Early diagnosis and treatment of HIV-infected children to prevent morbidity and mortality associated with immunodeficiency must remain a global public health priority.

Background Ionizing Radiation and the Risk of Childhood Cancer: A Census-Based Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Exposure to medium or high doses of ionizing radiation is a known risk factor for cancer in children. The extent to which low dose radiation from natural sources contributes to the risk of childhood cancer remains unclear. OBJECTIVES In a nationwide census-based cohort study, we investigated whether the incidence of childhood cancer was associated with background radiation from terrestrial gamma and cosmic rays. METHODS Children aged <16 years in the Swiss National Censuses in 1990 and 2000 were included. The follow-up period lasted until 2008 and incident cancer cases were identified from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. A radiation model was used to predict dose rates from terrestrial and cosmic radiation at locations of residence. Cox regression models were used to assess associations between cancer risk and dose rates and cumulative dose since birth. RESULTS Among 2,093,660 children included at census, 1,782 incident cases of cancer were identified including 530 with leukemia, 328 with lymphoma, and 423 with a tumor of the central nervous system (CNS). Hazard ratios for each mSv increase in cumulative dose of external radiation were 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.05) for any cancer, 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for leukemia, 1.01 (0.96, 1.05) for lymphoma, and 1.04 (1.00, 1.08) for CNS tumors. Adjustment for a range of potential confounders had little effect on the results. CONCLUSIONS Our study suggests that background radiation may contribute to the risk of cancer in children including leukemia and CNS tumors.

Comparison of noninferiority margins reported in protocols and publications showed incomplete and inconsistent reporting.

OBJECTIVES To compare noninferiority margins defined in study protocols and trial registry records with margins reported in subsequent publications. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Comparison of protocols of noninferiority trials submitted 2001 to 2005 to ethics committees in Switzerland and The Netherlands with corresponding publications and registry records. We searched MEDLINE via PubMed, the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (Cochrane Library issue 01/2012), and Google Scholar in September 2013 to identify published reports, and the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform of the World Health Organization in March 2013 to identify registry records. Two readers recorded the noninferiority margin and other data using a standardized data-abstraction form. RESULTS The margin was identical in study protocol and publication in 43 (80%) of 54 pairs of study protocols and articles. In the remaining pairs, reporting was inconsistent (five pairs, 9%), or the noninferiority margin was either not reported in the publication (five pairs, 9%) or not defined in the study protocol (one pair). The confidence interval or the exact P-value required to judge whether the result was compatible with noninferior, inferior, or superior efficacy was reported in 43 (80%) publications. Complete and consistent reporting of both noninferiority margin and confidence interval (or exact P-value) was present in 39 (72%) protocol-publication pairs. Twenty-nine trials (54%) were registered in trial registries, but only one registry record included the noninferiority margin. CONCLUSION The reporting of noninferiority margins was incomplete and inconsistent with study protocols in a substantial proportion of published trials, and margins were rarely reported in trial registries.

Viral load versus CD4⁺ monitoring and 5-year outcomes of antiretroviral therapy in HIV-positive children in Southern Africa: a cohort-based modelling study.

OBJECTIVES Many paediatric antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes in Southern Africa rely on CD4⁺ to monitor ART. We assessed the benefit of replacing CD4⁺ by viral load monitoring. DESIGN A mathematical modelling study. METHODS A simulation model of HIV progression over 5 years in children on ART, parameterized by data from seven South African cohorts. We simulated treatment programmes with 6-monthly CD4⁺ or 6- or 12-monthly viral load monitoring. We compared mortality, second-line ART use, immunological failure and time spent on failing ART. In further analyses, we varied the rate of virological failure, and assumed that the rate is higher with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring. RESULTS About 7% of children were predicted to die within 5 years, independent of the monitoring strategy. Compared with CD4⁺ monitoring, 12-monthly viral load monitoring reduced the 5-year risk of immunological failure from 1.6 to 1.0% and the mean time spent on failing ART from 6.6 to 3.6 months; 1% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 12% with viral load monitoring switched to second-line ART. Differences became larger when assuming higher rates of virological failure. When assuming higher virological failure rates with CD4⁺ than with viral load monitoring, up to 4.2% of children with CD4⁺ compared with 1.5% with viral load monitoring experienced immunological failure; the mean time spent on failing ART was 27.3 months with CD4⁺ monitoring and 6.0 months with viral load monitoring. Conclusion: Viral load monitoring did not affect 5-year mortality, but reduced time on failing ART, improved immunological response and increased switching to second-line ART.

Delayed HIV diagnosis and initiation of antiretroviral therapy: inequalities by educational level, COHERE in EuroCoord.

OBJECTIVES In Europe and elsewhere, health inequalities among HIV-positive individuals are of concern. We investigated late HIV diagnosis and late initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) by educational level, a proxy of socioeconomic position. DESIGN AND METHODS We used data from nine HIV cohorts within COHERE in Austria, France, Greece, Italy, Spain and Switzerland, collecting data on level of education in categories of the UNESCO/International Standard Classification of Education standard classification: non-completed basic, basic, secondary and tertiary education. We included individuals diagnosed with HIV between 1996 and 2011, aged at least 16 years, with known educational level and at least one CD4 cell count within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. We examined trends by education level in presentation with advanced HIV disease (AHD) (CD4 <200 cells/μl or AIDS within 6 months) using logistic regression, and distribution of CD4 cell count at cART initiation overall and among presenters without AHD using median regression. RESULTS Among 15 414 individuals, 52, 45,37, and 31% with uncompleted basic, basic, secondary and tertiary education, respectively, presented with AHD (P trend <0.001). Compared to patients with tertiary education, adjusted odds ratios of AHD were 1.72 (95% confidence interval 1.48-2.00) for uncompleted basic, 1.39 (1.24-1.56) for basic and 1.20 (1.08-1.34) for secondary education (P < 0.001). In unadjusted and adjusted analyses, median CD4 cell count at cART initiation was lower with poorer educational level. CONCLUSIONS Socioeconomic inequalities in delayed HIV diagnosis and initiation of cART are present in European countries with universal healthcare systems and individuals with lower educational level do not equally benefit from timely cART initiation.