Privatization in Colombia: a plant performance analysis

El artículo describe el programa de privatización en el sector real de la economía Colombiana durante los años noventa y ubica esta política en un contexto de desregulación de mercados y promoción de la inversión privada en la oferta de infraestructura publica y servicios públicos domiciliarios. El articulo evalúa el programa de privatización en los sectores manufacturero y de generación de energía eléctrica. Se hacen mediciones ex - post y análisis econométrico del desempeño de las firmas privatizadas. En el sector manufacturero la muestra analizada esta compuesta por 30 firmas manufactureras de gran tamaño, donde el Instituto de Fomento Industrial era socio fundador. Los principales resultados sugieren que estas firmas mantuvieron un comportamiento pro - cíclico relativo a su principal competidor privado y desestimaron planes drásticos de reestructuración operativa. Para el grupo de firmas de generación de energía el articulo estudia el impacto de la reforma regulatoria en el proceso de entrada al mercado, estructura de propiedad, competencia de mercado y eficiencia productiva. La medición de eficiencia productiva usa la técnica de Data Envelope Análisis para 33 plantas que representan el 85% de la capacidad instalada en la generación térmica de energía eléctrica. La muestra esta compuesta por plantas que estaban en funcionamiento antes de la reforma y las entrantes que comenzaron su operación comercial después de la reforma. Los resultados sugieren que los niveles de evidencia en la generación térmica a mejorado después de la reforma y que la política regulatoria ha tenido un efecto positivo en la eficiencia productiva.

Perfil logístico del sector del cemento en Colombia

Este proyecto caracteriza la industria del cemento en Colombia a partir de la contextualización y descripción de esta actividad en el mundo y en el país, describiendo y analizando asuntos relacionados con la cadena de suministro de esta. Teniendo en cuenta los actores directos e indirectos que en esta interactúan y temas como el comercio internacional, el desempeño y la competitividad regional de la industria nacional, la percepción empresarial y factores como la responsabilidad social y las buenas prácticas. Además de la descripción de los factores nacionales que afectan a la industria como la infraestructura, el transporte y el desempeño logístico del país. En la contextualización mundial se presentan temas como la producción, oferta y demanda mundial de este producto y las principales tendencias y prácticas logísticas que caracterizan a esta industria internacionalmente; en el panorama nacional se caracteriza la competitividad y desempeño logístico del país y los factores que afectan a la industria del cemento. Se presentan los orígenes e historia de la industria en el país y se dan datos de la producción, despachos y comercio internacional de esta además de una breve descripción de su cadena de suministro y la caracterización de las relaciones entre sus eslabones. Finalmente se describen los entes con los cuales interactúa la industria, se describe lo más relevante en cuanto a políticas ambientales, responsabilidad social y buenas prácticas de los principales productores del país y se concluye con la caracterización de la competitividad general de la industria a nivel nacional y los retos y problemáticas que afronta el sector y que lo limitan para mejorar su desempeño a nivel regional.

Predictors of knowledge creation performance. A quantitative qualitative comparative study of European doctorandi

Aquesta tesi forma part d'un projecte destinat a predir el rendiment acadèmic dels estudiants de doctorat portat a terme per l'INSOC (International Network on Social Capital and Performance). El grup de recerca INSOC està format per les universitats de Girona (Espanya), Ljubljana (Eslovènia), Giessen (Alemanya) i Ghent (Bèlgica). El primer objectiu d'aquesta tesi és desenvolupar anàlisis quantitatius comparatius sobre el rendiment acadèmic dels estudiants de doctorat entre Espanya, Eslovènia i Alemanya a partir dels resultats individuals del rendiment acadèmic obtinguts de cada una de les universitats. La naturalesa internacional del grup de recerca implica la recerca comparativa. Vam utilitzar variables personal, actitudinals i de xarxa per predir el rendiment. El segon objectiu d'aquesta tesi és entendre de manera qualitativa perquè les variables de xarxa no ajuden quantitativament a predir el rendiment a la universitat de Girona (Espanya). En el capítol 1, definim conceptes relacionats amb el rendiment i donam un llistat de cada una de les variables independents (variables de xarxa, personals i actitudinals), resumint la lliteratura. Finalment, explicam com s'organitzen els estudis de doctorat a cada un dels diferents països. A partir d'aquestes definicions teòriques, en els pròxims capítols, primer presentarem els qüestionaris utilitzats a Espanya, Eslovènia i Alemanya per mesurar aquests diferents tipus de variables. Després, compararem les variables que són relevants per predir el rendiment dels estudiants de doctorat a cada país. Després d'això, fixarem diferents models de regressió per predir el rendiment entre països. En tots aquests models les variables de xarxa fallen a predir el rendiment a la Universitat de Girona. Finalment, utilitzem estudis qualitatius per entendre aquests resultats inesperats. En el capítol 2, expliquem com hem dissenyat i conduït els qüestionaris en els diferents països amb l'objectiu d'explicar el rendiment dels estudiants de doctorat obtinguts a Espanya, Eslovènia i Alemanya. En el capítol 3, cream indicadors comparables però apareixen problemes de comparabilitat en preguntes particulars a Espanya, Eslovènia i Alemanya. En aquest capítol expliquem com utilitzem les variables dels tres països per crear indicadors comparables. Aquest pas és molt important perquè el principal objectiu del grup de recerca INSOC és comparar el rendiment dels estudiants de doctorat entre els diferents països. En el capítol 4 comparem models de regressió obtinguts de predir el rendiment dels estudiants de doctorat a les universitats de Girona (Espanya) i Eslovènia. Les variables són característiques dels grups de recerca dels estudiants de doctorat enteses com una xarxa social egocèntrica, característiques personals i actitudinals dels estudiants de doctorat i algunes carecterístiques dels directors. Vam trobar que les variables de xarxa egocèntriques no predien el rendiment a la Universitat de Girona. En el capítol 5, comparem dades eslovenes, espanyoles i alemnayes, seguint la metodologia del capítol 4. Concluïm que el cas alemany és molt diferent. El poder predictiu de les variables de xarxa no millora. En el capítol 6 el grup de recerca dels estudiants de doctorat és entès com una xarxa duocèntrica (Coromina et al., 2008), amb l'objectiu d'obtendre informació de la relació mútua entre els estudiants i els seus directors i els contactes d'ambdós amb els altres de la xarxa. La inclusió de la xarxa duocèntrica no millora el poder predictiu del model de regressió utilitzant les variales egocèntriques de xarxa. El capítol 7 pretèn entendre perquè les variables de xarxa no predeixen el rendiment a la Universitat de Girona. Utilitzem el mètode mixte, esperant que l'estudi qualitatiu pugui cobrir les raons de perquè la qualitat de la xarxa falla en la qualitat del treball dels estudiants. Per recollir dades per l'estudi qualitatiu utilitzem entrevistes en profunditat.

Social networks and performance in knowledge creation. An application and a methodological proposal

El objetivo de esta tesis es predecir el rendimiento de los estudiantes de doctorado en la Universidad de Girona según características personales (background), actitudinales y de redes sociales de los estudiantes. La población estudiada son estudiantes de tercer y cuarto curso de doctorado y sus directores de tesis doctoral. Para obtener los datos se ha diseño un cuestionario web especificando sus ventajas y teniendo en cuenta algunos problemas tradicionales de no cobertura o no respuesta. El cuestionario web se hizo debido a la complejidad que comportan de las preguntas de red social. El cuestionario electrónico permite, mediante una serie de instrucciones, reducir el tiempo para responder y hacerlo menos cargado. Este cuestionario web, además es auto administrado, lo cual nos permite, según la literatura, unas respuestas mas honestas que cuestionario con encuestador. Se analiza la calidad de las preguntas de red social en cuestionario web para datos egocéntricos. Para eso se calcula la fiabilidad y la validez de este tipo de preguntas, por primera vez a través del modelo Multirasgo Multimétodo (Multitrait Multimethod). Al ser datos egocéntricos, se pueden considerar jerárquicos, y por primera vez se una un modelo Multirasgo Multimétodo Multinivel (multilevel Multitrait Multimethod). Las la fiabilidad y validez se pueden obtener a nivel individual (within group component) o a nivel de grupo (between group component) y se usan para llevar a cabo un meta-análisis con otras universidades europeas para analizar ciertas características de diseño del cuestionario. Estas características analizan si para preguntas de red social hechas en cuestionarios web son más fiables y validas hechas "by questions" o "by alters", si son presentes todas las etiquetas de frecuencia para los ítems o solo la del inicio y final, o si es mejor que el diseño del cuestionario esté en con color o blanco y negro. También se analiza la calidad de la red social en conjunto, en este caso específico son los grupos de investigación de la universidad. Se tratan los problemas de los datos ausentes en las redes completas. Se propone una nueva alternativa a la solución típica de la red egocéntrica o los respondientes proxies. Esta nueva alternativa la hemos nombrado "Nosduocentered Network" (red Nosduocentrada), se basa en dos actores centrales en una red. Estimando modelos de regresión, esta "Nosduocentered network" tiene mas poder predictivo para el rendimiento de los estudiantes de doctorado que la red egocéntrica. Además se corrigen las correlaciones de las variables actitudinales por atenuación debido al pequeño tamaño muestral. Finalmente, se hacen regresiones de los tres tipos de variables (background, actitudinales y de red social) y luego se combinan para analizar cual para predice mejor el rendimiento (según publicaciones académicas) de los estudiantes de doctorado. Los resultados nos llevan a predecir el rendimiento académico de los estudiantes de doctorado depende de variables personales (background) i actitudinales. Asimismo, se comparan los resultados obtenidos con otros estudios publicados.

Women's Labour Market Performance in Europe: Trends and Shaping Factors. CEPS Special Report, September 2012

We investigate the changes in women’s employment patterns across EU countries over the last 20 years both in terms of labour market participation and type of jobs using individual data from ECHP and EUSILC databases. Using a logistic multilevel model, we then pin down the role played by institutional and policy changes in explaining women’s employment. The key results indicate that women’s employment trends are related to the institutional and policy changes that have been introduced in almost all European countries since the end of the 1990s. Such changes had an important impact on the labour market opportunities’ of women by affecting the quality of potential jobs available, the chances to (re-)enter the labour market and the opportunity costs of employment (vs. non-employment).

Data assimilation for a coastal area morphodynamic model: Morecambe Bay

This paper investigates the use of data assimilation in coastal area morphodynamic modelling using Morecambe Bay as a study site. A simple model of the bay has been enhanced with a data assimilation scheme to better predict large-scale changes in bathymetry observed in the bay over a 3-year period. The 2DH decoupled morphodynamic model developed for the work is described, as is the optimal interpolation scheme used to assimilate waterline observations into the model run. Each waterline was acquired from a SAR satellite image and is essentially a contour of the bathymetry at some level within the inter-tidal zone of the bay. For model parameters calibrated against validation observations, model performance is good, even without data assimilation. However the use of data assimilation successfully compensates for a particular failing of the model, and helps to keep the model bathymetry on track. It also improves the ability of the model to predict future bathymetry. Although the benefits of data assimilation are demonstrated using waterline observations, any observations of morphology could potentially be used. These results suggest that data assimilation should be considered for use in future coastal area morphodynamic models.

A design of benchmarking method for assessing performance of e-Government systems

This paper is an initial work towards developing an e-Government benchmarking model that is user-centric. To achieve the goal then, public service delivery is discussed first including the transition to online public service delivery and the need for providing public services using electronic media. Two major e-Government benchmarking methods are critically discussed and the need to develop a standardized benchmarking model that is user-centric is presented. To properly articulate user requirements in service provision, an organizational semiotic method is suggested.

Exploitation of Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget data using simulations from a numerical weather prediction model: Methodology and data validation

We describe a new methodology for comparing satellite radiation budget data with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. This is applied to data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on Meteosat-8. The methodology brings together, in near-real time, GERB broadband shortwave and longwave fluxes with simulations based on analyses produced by the Met Office global NWP model. Results for the period May 2003 to February 2005 illustrate the progressive improvements in the data products as various initial problems were resolved. In most areas the comparisons reveal systematic errors in the model's representation of surface properties and clouds, which are discussed elsewhere. However, for clear-sky regions over the oceans the model simulations are believed to be sufficiently accurate to allow the quality of the GERB fluxes themselves to be assessed and any changes in time of the performance of the instrument to be identified. Using model and radiosonde profiles of temperature and humidity as input to a single-column version of the model's radiation code, we conduct sensitivity experiments which provide estimates of the expected model errors over the ocean of about ±5–10 W m−2 in clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and ±0.01 in clear-sky albedo. For the more recent data the differences between the observed and modeled OLR and albedo are well within these error estimates. The close agreement between the observed and modeled values, particularly for the most recent period, illustrates the value of the methodology. It also contributes to the validation of the GERB products and increases confidence in the quality of the data, prior to their release.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. I. Underlying asymmetry

Matheron's usual variogram estimator can result in unreliable variograms when data are strongly asymmetric or skewed. Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. This paper examines the effects of underlying asymmetry on the variogram and on the accuracy of prediction, and the second one examines the effects arising from outliers. Standard geostatistical texts suggest ways of dealing with underlying asymmetry; however, this is based on informed intuition rather than detailed investigation. To determine whether the methods generally used to deal with underlying asymmetry are appropriate, the effects of different coefficients of skewness on the shape of the experimental variogram and on the model parameters were investigated. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size from variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These data were then modified to give different degrees of asymmetry and the experimental variogram was computed in each case. The effects of standard data transformations on the form of the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess quantitatively the performance of the different variogram models for kriging. The results showed that the shape of the variogram was affected by the degree of asymmetry, and that the effect increased as the size of data set decreased. Transformations of the data were more effective in reducing the skewness coefficient in the larger sets of data. Cross-validation confirmed that variogram models from transformed data were more suitable for kriging than were those from the raw asymmetric data. The results of this study have implications for the 'standard best practice' in dealing with asymmetry in data for geostatistical analyses. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. II. Outliers

Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. The first paper of this series examined the effects of the former on the variogram and this paper examines the effects of asymmetry arising from outliers. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size that are realizations of known processes described by variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These primary data sets were then contaminated with randomly located and spatially aggregated outliers from a secondary process to produce different degrees of asymmetry. Experimental variograms were computed from these data by Matheron's estimator and by three robust estimators. The effects of standard data transformations on the coefficient of skewness and on the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of models fitted to experimental variograms computed from a range of data contaminated by outliers for kriging. The results showed that where skewness was caused by outliers the variograms retained their general shape, but showed an increase in the nugget and sill variances and nugget:sill ratios. This effect was only slightly more for the smallest data set than for the two larger data sets and there was little difference between the results for the latter. Overall, the effect of size of data set was small for all analyses. The nugget:sill ratio showed a consistent decrease after transformation to both square roots and logarithms; the decrease was generally larger for the latter, however. Aggregated outliers had different effects on the variogram shape from those that were randomly located, and this also depended on whether they were aggregated near to the edge or the centre of the field. The results of cross-validation showed that the robust estimators and the removal of outliers were the most effective ways of dealing with outliers for variogram estimation and kriging. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluating a new LISFLOOD-FP formulation with data from the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK

Two-dimensional flood inundation modelling is a widely used tool to aid flood risk management. In urban areas, where asset value and population density are greatest, the model spatial resolution required to represent flows through a typical street network (i.e. < 10m) often results in impractical computational cost at the whole city scale. Explicit diffusive storage cell models become very inefficient at such high resolutions, relative to shallow water models, because the stable time step in such schemes scales as a quadratic of resolution. This paper presents the calibration and evaluation of a recently developed new formulation of the LISFLOOD-FP model, where stability is controlled by the Courant–Freidrichs–Levy condition for the shallow water equations, such that, the stable time step instead scales linearly with resolution. The case study used is based on observations during the summer 2007 floods in Tewkesbury, UK. Aerial photography is available for model evaluation on three separate days from the 24th to the 31st of July. The model covered a 3.6 km by 2 km domain and was calibrated using gauge data from high flows during the previous month. The new formulation was benchmarked against the original version of the model at 20 m and 40 m resolutions, demonstrating equally accurate performance given the available validation data but at 67x faster computation time. The July event was then simulated at the 2 m resolution of the available airborne LiDAR DEM. This resulted in a significantly more accurate simulation of the drying dynamics compared to that simulated by the coarse resolution models, although estimates of peak inundation depth were similar.

Progress on “Changing coastlines: data assimilation for morphodynamic prediction and predictability”

The task of assessing the likelihood and extent of coastal flooding is hampered by the lack of detailed information on near-shore bathymetry. This is required as an input for coastal inundation models, and in some cases the variability in the bathymetry can impact the prediction of those areas likely to be affected by flooding in a storm. The constant monitoring and data collection that would be required to characterise the near-shore bathymetry over large coastal areas is impractical, leaving the option of running morphodynamic models to predict the likely bathymetry at any given time. However, if the models are inaccurate the errors may be significant if incorrect bathymetry is used to predict possible flood risks. This project is assessing the use of data assimilation techniques to improve the predictions from a simple model, by rigorously incorporating observations of the bathymetry into the model, to bring the model closer to the actual situation. Currently we are concentrating on Morecambe Bay as a primary study site, as it has a highly dynamic inter-tidal zone, with changes in the course of channels in this zone impacting the likely locations of flooding from storms. We are working with SAR images, LiDAR, and swath bathymetry to give us the observations over a 2.5 year period running from May 2003 – November 2005. We have a LiDAR image of the entire inter-tidal zone for November 2005 to use as validation data. We have implemented a 3D-Var data assimilation scheme, to investigate the improvements in performance of the data assimilation compared to the previous scheme which was based on the optimal interpolation method. We are currently evaluating these different data assimilation techniques, using 22 SAR data observations. We will also include the LiDAR data and swath bathymetry to improve the observational coverage, and investigate the impact of different types of observation on the predictive ability of the model. We are also assessing the ability of the data assimilation scheme to recover the correct bathymetry after storm events, which can dramatically change the bathymetry in a short period of time.

A data collection case study supporting requirements oriented prediction and management in software developments

Consider the statement "this project should cost X and has risk of Y". Such statements are used daily in industry as the basis for making decisions. The work reported here is part of a study aimed at providing a rational and pragmatic basis for such statements. Of particular interest are predictions made in the requirements and early phases of projects. A preliminary model has been constructed using Bayesian Belief Networks and in support of this, a programme to collect and study data during the execution of various software development projects commenced in May 2002. The data collection programme is undertaken under the constraints of a commercial industrial regime of multiple concurrent small to medium scale software development projects. Guided by pragmatism, the work is predicated on the use of data that can be collected readily by project managers; including expert judgements, effort, elapsed times and metrics collected within each project.

Does the regional nature of multinationals affect the multinationality and performance relationship?

The traditional independent variable in the multinationality and performance literature is the ratio of foreign (F) to total (T) sales, (F/T). This can now be supplemented by a new regional variable, the ratio of regional (R) to total (T) sales, i.e. (R/T). Data are presented on both (F/T) and (R/T) for both sales and assets for a 5-year period, 2001–2005. New tests are reported on (R/T) as it affects a financial measure of performance, the Tobin's Q. Implications are drawn for future research on the S-curve relationship between multinationality and performance in the light of this regional phenomenon.