Asset health prediction using the explicit hazard model

The ability to estimate the asset reliability and the probability of failure is critical to reducing maintenance costs, operation downtime, and safety hazards. Predicting the survival time and the probability of failure in future time is an indispensable requirement in prognostics and asset health management. In traditional reliability models, the lifetime of an asset is estimated using failure event data, alone; however, statistically sufficient failure event data are often difficult to attain in real-life situations due to poor data management, effective preventive maintenance, and the small population of identical assets in use. Condition indicators and operating environment indicators are two types of covariate data that are normally obtained in addition to failure event and suspended data. These data contain significant information about the state and health of an asset. Condition indicators reflect the level of degradation of assets while operating environment indicators accelerate or decelerate the lifetime of assets. When these data are available, an alternative approach to the traditional reliability analysis is the modelling of condition indicators and operating environment indicators and their failure-generating mechanisms using a covariate-based hazard model. The literature review indicates that a number of covariate-based hazard models have been developed. All of these existing covariate-based hazard models were developed based on the principle theory of the Proportional Hazard Model (PHM). However, most of these models have not attracted much attention in the field of machinery prognostics. Moreover, due to the prominence of PHM, attempts at developing alternative models, to some extent, have been stifled, although a number of alternative models to PHM have been suggested. The existing covariate-based hazard models neglect to fully utilise three types of asset health information (including failure event data (i.e. observed and/or suspended), condition data, and operating environment data) into a model to have more effective hazard and reliability predictions. In addition, current research shows that condition indicators and operating environment indicators have different characteristics and they are non-homogeneous covariate data. Condition indicators act as response variables (or dependent variables) whereas operating environment indicators act as explanatory variables (or independent variables). However, these non-homogenous covariate data were modelled in the same way for hazard prediction in the existing covariate-based hazard models. The related and yet more imperative question is how both of these indicators should be effectively modelled and integrated into the covariate-based hazard model. This work presents a new approach for addressing the aforementioned challenges. The new covariate-based hazard model, which termed as Explicit Hazard Model (EHM), explicitly and effectively incorporates all three available asset health information into the modelling of hazard and reliability predictions and also drives the relationship between actual asset health and condition measurements as well as operating environment measurements. The theoretical development of the model and its parameter estimation method are demonstrated in this work. EHM assumes that the baseline hazard is a function of the both time and condition indicators. Condition indicators provide information about the health condition of an asset; therefore they update and reform the baseline hazard of EHM according to the health state of asset at given time t. Some examples of condition indicators are the vibration of rotating machinery, the level of metal particles in engine oil analysis, and wear in a component, to name but a few. Operating environment indicators in this model are failure accelerators and/or decelerators that are included in the covariate function of EHM and may increase or decrease the value of the hazard from the baseline hazard. These indicators caused by the environment in which an asset operates, and that have not been explicitly identified by the condition indicators (e.g. Loads, environmental stresses, and other dynamically changing environment factors). While the effects of operating environment indicators could be nought in EHM; condition indicators could emerge because these indicators are observed and measured as long as an asset is operational and survived. EHM has several advantages over the existing covariate-based hazard models. One is this model utilises three different sources of asset health data (i.e. population characteristics, condition indicators, and operating environment indicators) to effectively predict hazard and reliability. Another is that EHM explicitly investigates the relationship between condition and operating environment indicators associated with the hazard of an asset. Furthermore, the proportionality assumption, which most of the covariate-based hazard models suffer from it, does not exist in EHM. According to the sample size of failure/suspension times, EHM is extended into two forms: semi-parametric and non-parametric. The semi-parametric EHM assumes a specified lifetime distribution (i.e. Weibull distribution) in the form of the baseline hazard. However, for more industry applications, due to sparse failure event data of assets, the analysis of such data often involves complex distributional shapes about which little is known. Therefore, to avoid the restrictive assumption of the semi-parametric EHM about assuming a specified lifetime distribution for failure event histories, the non-parametric EHM, which is a distribution free model, has been developed. The development of EHM into two forms is another merit of the model. A case study was conducted using laboratory experiment data to validate the practicality of the both semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs. The performance of the newly-developed models is appraised using the comparison amongst the estimated results of these models and the other existing covariate-based hazard models. The comparison results demonstrated that both the semi-parametric and non-parametric EHMs outperform the existing covariate-based hazard models. Future research directions regarding to the new parameter estimation method in the case of time-dependent effects of covariates and missing data, application of EHM in both repairable and non-repairable systems using field data, and a decision support model in which linked to the estimated reliability results, are also identified.

Slithering snakes, angry men and out-group members : what and whom are we evolved to fear?

The preparedness theory of classical conditioning proposed by Seligman (1970, 1971) has been applied extensively over the past 40 years to explain the nature and "source" of human fear and phobias. In this review we examine the formative studies that tested the four defining characteristics of prepared learning with animal fear-relevant stimuli (typically snakes and spiders) and consider claims that fear of social stimuli, such as angry faces, or faces of racial out-group members, may also be acquired utilising the same preferential learning mechanism. Exposition of critical differences between fear learning to animal and social stimuli suggests that a single account cannot adequately explain fear learning with animal and social stimuli. We demonstrate that fear conditioned to social stimuli is less robust than fear conditioned to animal stimuli as it is susceptible to cognitive influence and propose that it may instead reflect on negative stereotypes and social norms. Thus, a theoretical model that can accommodate the influence of both biological and cultural factors is likely to have broader utility in the explanation of fear and avoidance responses than accounts based on a single mechanism.

Calling for help : a responsive evaluation of Child Health Line

The project examined the responsiveness of the telenursing service provided by the Child Health Line (hereinafter referred to as CHL). It aimed to provide an account of population usage of the service, the call request types and the response of the service to the calls. In so doing, the project extends the current body of knowledge pertaining to the provision of parenting support through telenursing. Approximately 900 calls to the CHL were audio-recorded over the December 2005-2006 Christmas-New Year period. A protocol was developed to code characteristics of the call, the interactional features between the caller and nurse call-taker, and the extent to which there was (a) agreement on problem definition and the plan of action and (b) interactional alignment between nurse and caller. A quantitative analysis examined the frequencies of the main topics covered in calls to the CHL and any statistical associations between types of calls, length of calls and nurse-caller alignment. In addition, a detailed qualitative analysis was conducted on a subset of calls dealing with the nurse management of calls seeking medical advice and information. Key findings include: • Overall, 74% of the calls discussed parenting and child development issues, 48% discussed health/medical issues, and 16% were information-seeking calls. • More specifically: o 21% discussed health/medical and parenting and child development issues. o 3% discussed parenting and information-seeking issues. o 5% discussed health/medical, parenting/development and information issues. o 18% exclusively focussed on health and medical issues and therefore were outside the remit of the intended scope of the CHL. These calls caused interactional dilemmas for the nurse call-takers as they simultaneously dealt with parental expectations for help and the CHL guidelines indicating that offering medical advice was outside the remit of the service. • Most frequent reasons for calling were to discuss sleep, feeding, normative infant physical functions and parenting advice. • The average length of calls to the CHL was 7 minutes. • Longer calls were more likely to involve nurse call-takers giving advice on more than one topic, the caller displaying strong emotions, the caller not specifically providing the reason for the call, and the caller discussing parenting and developmental issues. • Shorter calls were characterised by the nurse suggesting that the child receive immediate medical attention, the nurse emphasising the importance or urgency of the plan of action, the caller referring to or requesting confirmation of a diagnosis, and caller and nurse call-taker discussion of health and medical issues. • The majority of calls, 92%, achieved parent-nurse alignment by the conclusion of the call. However, 8% did not. • The 8% of calls that were not aligned require further quantitative and qualitative investigation of the interactional features. The findings are pertinent in the current context where Child Health Line now resides within 13HEALTH. These findings indicate: 1. A high demand for parenting advice. 2. Nurse call-takers have a high level of competency in dealing with calls about parenting and normal child development, which is the remit of the CHL. 3. Nurse call-takers and callers achieve a high degree of alignment when both parties agree on a course of action. 4. There is scope for developing professional practice in calls that present difficulties in terms of call content, interactional behaviour and call closure. Recommendations of the project: 1. There are numerous opportunities for further research on interactional aspects of calls to the CHL, such as further investigations of the interactional features and the association of the features to alignment and nonalignment. The rich and detailed insights into the patterns of nurse-parent interactions were afforded by the audio-recording and analysis of calls to the CHL. 2. The regular recording of calls would serve as a way of increasing understanding of the type and nature of calls received, and provide a valuable training resource. Recording and analysing calls to CHL provides insight into the operation of the service, including evidence about the effectiveness of triaging calls. 3. Training in both recognising and dealing with problem calls may be beneficial. For example, calls where the caller showed strong emotion, appeared stressed, frustrated or troubled were less likely to be rated as aligned calls. In calls where the callers described being ‘at their wits end’, or responded to each proposed suggestion with ‘I’ve tried that’, the callers were fairly resistant to advice-giving. 4. Training could focus on strategies for managing calls relating to parenting support and advice, and parental well-being. The project found that these calls were more likely to be rated as being nonaligned. 5. With the implementation of 13HEALTH, future research could compare nurse-parent interaction following the implementation of triaging. Of the calls, 21% had both medical and parenting topics discussed and 5.3% discussed medical, parenting and information topics. Added to this, in 12% of calls, there was ambiguity between the caller and nurse call-taker as to whether the problem was medical or behavioural.

Growth of confined cancer spheroids : a combined experimental marker, critical modelling approach

A critical step in the dissemination of ovarian cancer is the formation of multicellular spheroids from cells shed from the primary tumour. The objectives of this study were to apply bioengineered three-dimensional (3D) microenvironments for culturing ovarian cancer spheroids in vitro and simultaneously to build on a mathematical model describing the growth of multicellular spheroids in these biomimetic matrices. Cancer cells derived from human epithelial ovarian carcinoma were embedded within biomimetic hydrogels of varying stiffness and grown for up to 4 weeks. Immunohistochemistry, imaging and growth analyses were used to quantify the dependence of cell proliferation and apoptosis on matrix stiffness, long-term culture and treatment with the anti-cancer drug paclitaxel. The mathematical model was formulated as a free boundary problem in which each spheroid was treated as an incompressible porous medium. The functional forms used to describe the rates of cell proliferation and apoptosis were motivated by the experimental work and predictions of the mathematical model compared with the experimental output. This work aimed to establish whether it is possible to simulate solid tumour growth on the basis of data on spheroid size, cell proliferation and cell death within these spheroids. The mathematical model predictions were in agreement with the experimental data set and simulated how the growth of cancer spheroids was influenced by mechanical and biochemical stimuli including matrix stiffness, culture duration and administration of a chemotherapeutic drug. Our computational model provides new perspectives on experimental results and has informed the design of new 3D studies of chemoresistance of multicellular cancer spheroids.

The influence of parental health beliefs on child restraint practices in a regional centre in Queensland

Since March 2010 in Queensland, legislation has specified the type of restraint and seating row for child passengers under 7 years according to age. The following study explored regional parents’ child restraint practices and the influence of their health beliefs over these. A brief intercept interview was verbally administered to a convenience sample of parent-drivers (n = 123) in Toowoomba in February 2010, after the announcement of changes to legislation but prior to enforcement. Parents who agreed to be followed-up were then reinterviewed after the enforcement (May-June 2010). The Health Beliefs Model was used to gauge beliefs about susceptibility to crashing, children being injured in a crash, and likely severity of injuries. Self-efficacy and perceptions about barriers to, and benefits of, using age-appropriate restraints with children, were also assessed. Results: There were very high levels of rear seating reported for children (initial interview 91%; follow-up 100%). Dedicated child restraint use was 96.9% at initial interview, though 11% were deemed inappropriate for the child’s age. Self-reported restraint practices for children under 7 were used to categorise parental practices into ‘Appropriate’ (all children in age-appropriate restraint and rear seat) or ‘Inappropriate’ (≥1 child inappropriately restrained). 94% of parents were aware of the legislation, but only around one third gave accurate descriptions of the requirements. However, 89% of parents were deemed to have ‘Appropriate’ restraint practices. Parents with ‘Inappropriate’ practices were significantly more likely than those with ‘Appropriate’ practices to disagree that child restraints provide better protection for children in a crash than adult seatbelts. For self-efficacy, parents with ‘Appropriate’ practices were more likely than those with ‘Inappropriate’ practices to report being ‘completely confident’ about installing child restraints. The results suggest that efforts to increase the level of appropriate restraint should attempt to better inform them about the superior protection offered by child restraints compared with seat belts for children.

Refugee Mental Health Interventions

There is great diversity in the type of interventions carried out under the rubric of “refugee mental health.” This is partly due to the holistic ecological and psychosocial approaches that have come to dominate research and humanitarian understandings of refugee mental health. The diverse application of psychosocial principles in refugee mental health is also extended by the many varied locations in which such interventions are carried out. Guidelines have been developed to aid would-be practitioners of mental health care amongst refugee communities. However, challenges remain in demonstrating the effectiveness of the approaches used. The maxim “do no harm” which must guide all interventions in this area has nonetheless been threatened at times by well-meaning, yet misguided actions. Despite these issues, there is much promise that together with refugees themselves, steps can be taken to promote well-being and relieve distress in communities of people displaced by conflict.

Psychology students’ beliefs about integrating Complementary and Alternative Therapy (CAT) into their future psychology practice

We investigated whether belief-based differences exist between students who have strong and weak intentions to integrate complementary and alternative therapy (CAT) into future psychology practice by recommending CAT or specific CAT practitioners to clients. A cross-sectional methodology was used. Psychology undergraduate students (N = 106) participated in a paper-based questionnaire design to explore their underlying beliefs related to CAT integration. The study was undertaken at a major university in Queensland, Australia. The theory of planned behaviour belief-based framework guided the study. Multivariate analyses of variance examined the influence of behavioural, normative, and control beliefs on the strong and weak intention groups. A multiple regression analysis investigated the relative importance of these belief sets for predicting intentions. We found that clear differences emerged between strong and weak intenders on behavioural and normative beliefs, but not control beliefs. Strong intenders perceived the positive outcomes of integrating CAT, such as being able to offer clients a more holistic practice and having confidence in the practitioners/practices, as more likely to occur than weak intenders, and perceived the negative outcome of compromising my professional practice as less likely. Strong in-tenders were more likely than weak intenders to perceive that a range of important referents (e.g., clients) would think they should integrate CAT. Results of the regression analysis revealed the same pattern of results in that behavioural and normative beliefs, but not control beliefs, significantly predicted intentions. The findings from this study can be used to inform policy and educational initiatives that aim to encourage CAT use in psychology practice.

Characteristics of culturally and linguistically diverse mental health clients

The present study examined Queensland Transcultural Mental Health Centre (QTMHC) client characteristics in order to provide a better understanding for development of future health service delivery models. Archived data that was collected for 1499 clients over two years period (2007-2009) was analysed using descriptive statistics and Chi squares. The results indicated that clients were referred from a range of sources and were generally adults. There were more women than men, who sought services. At least half of the clients had language barriers and relied on bilingual workers. Most frequently expressed mental health issues were mood disorder symptoms, followed by symptoms of schizophrenia and psychosis and anxiety. Acculturation strains and stressors were described as the most common psychosocial issues. Mental health and psychosocial issues differed for age, gender and world regions from which the CALD clients originated. The findings provided an understanding of clients who seek services at QTMHC. Various ways in which transcultural services and data bases can be further improved are discussed.

Thai family support (TFS) : working with families of young substance users in primary health care

Living with substance users negatively impacts upon family members in many ways, and distress is common. Despite these deep and wide-ranging impacts, supportive interventions for family members in their own right are rarely available. Thailand has substantial and growing problems with substance use, and there is very little support or family members of drug users, especially in community setting. The Thai Family Support (TFS) program was designed for implementation in primary health care units (PCUs) in Thailand. TFS was based on two approaches with existing empirical support in Western contexts—the 5-step method and CRAFT—with adaptations to a Thai setting that included integration with Buddhist practices. Its aims were to increase well-being of family members, reduce mental distress, improve family relationships between family members, and engage substance users in behaviour change. A small-scale randomised controlled trial on TFS with a Delayed Treatment control was conducted, with assessments at 8 weeks (Post 1) and 20-24 weeks (Post 2). Structured interviews with participants and PCU staff and an examination of five case studies augmented the quantitative results. Mixed Model Analyses were applied to quantitative outcomes, and thematic analysis was used for qualitative data. Thirty-six participants (18 in each of Immediate and Delayed Conditions) were recruited. A significant difference at Baseline between the two conditions was observed on the Thai GHQ-28 and Gender, but it was not possible to statistically control for these effects. There was a significant Time by Condition interaction on the Thai GHQ-28, WHOQOL-BREF-THAI and FAS, reflecting greater improvements in the Immediate condition by Post 1, but with the Delayed condition meeting or exceeding that effect by Post 2. On FES Cohesion and Conflict, there were falls across conditions at Post 2, but only Cohesion also showed a Time by Condition interaction, and that effect was consistent with a delayed impact of treatment. Overall, TFS by PCU staff in the Delayed Condition gave similar results to TFS conducted by the researcher, supporting the viability of its dissemination to standard health services. Qualitative data also confirmed the quantitative results. Most participants reported physiological and psychological improvements even though their substance-using relative did not change their drug use behaviour. After completing TFS, participants reported increased knowledge, group support and sharing feeling, having positive patient-professional relationship, having greater knowledge of substance abuse and social support. In particular, they changed their behaviour towards the substance user, resulting in improvements to family relationships. PCU staff gave similar responses on the efficacy of TFS, and saw it as feasible for routine use, although some implementation challenges were identified. The cultural adaptation and in particular the religious activities, were recognised by participants and PCU staff as an important component of TFS to support psychological health and well-being. Findings from this study showed the impact of substance use on family members and difficulties that they experienced when living with the substance users, resulting distresses and burden that may develop severe mental health disease. Drug use policies should be modified to support family members and response to their needs effectively for early prevention. This study also gave preliminary support for application of the TFS program in rural primary care settings and identified some policies that will be required for it to be disseminated more broadly.

Bike share : a synthesis of the literature

This paper begins by providing an overview of bike share programs, followed by a critical examination of the growing body of literature on these programs. This synthesis of previous works, both peer-reviewed and grey, includes an identification of the current gaps in knowledge related to the impacts of bike sharing programs. This synthesis represents a critically needed evaluation of the current state of global bike share research, in order to better understand, and maximize the effectiveness of current and future programs. Several consistent themes have emerged within the growing body of research on bike share programs. Firstly, the importance bike share members place on convenience and value for money appears paramount in their motivation to sign up and use these programs. Secondly, and somewhat counter intuitively, scheme members are more likely to own and use private bicycles than non-members. Thirdly, users demonstrate a greater reluctance to wear helmets than private bicycle riders and helmets have acted as a deterrent in jurisdictions in which helmets are mandatory. Finally, and perhaps most importantly from a sustainable transport perspective, the majority of scheme users are substituting from sustainable modes of transport rather than the car.

The role of representative design in talent development : a comment on “Talent identification and promotion programmes of Olympic athletes”

A recent comment in the Journal of Sports Sciences (MacNamara & Collins, 2011) highlighted some major concerns with the current structure of talent identification and development (TID) programmes of Olympic athletes (e.g. Gulbin, 2008; Vaeyens, Gullich, Warr, & Philippaerts, 2009). In a cogent commentary, MacNamara and Collins (2011) provided a short review of the extant literature, which was both timely and insightful. Specifically, they criticised the ubiquitous one-dimensional ‘physically-biased’ attempts to produce world class performers, emphasising the need to consider a number of key environmental variables in a more multi-disciplinary perspective. They also lamented the wastage of talent, and alluded to the operational and opportunistic nature of current talent transfer programmes. A particularly compelling aspect of the comment was their allusion to high profile athletes who had ‘failed’ performance evaluation tests and then proceeded to succeed in that sport. This issue identifies a problem with current protocols for evaluating performance and is a line of research that is sorely needed in the area of talent development. To understand the nature of talent wastage that might be occurring in high performance programmes in sport, future empirical work should seek to follow the career paths of ‘successful’ and ‘unsuccessful’ products of TID programmes, in comparative analyses. Pertinent to the insights of MacNamara and Collins (2011), it remains clear that a number of questions have not received enough attention from sport scientists interested in talent development, including: (i) why is there so much wastage of talent in such programmes? And (ii), why are there so few reported examples of successful talent transfer programmes? These questions highlight critical areas for future investigation. The aim of this short correspondence is to discuss these and other issues researchers and practitioners might consider, and to propose how an ecological dynamics underpinning to such investigations may help the development of existing protocols...

The need for ‘representative task design’ in evaluating efficacy of skills tests in sport : a comment on Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010)

Russell, Benton and Kingsley (2010) recently suggested a new association football test comprising three different tasks for the evaluation of players' passing, dribbling and shooting skills. Their stated intention was to enhance ‘ecological validity’ of current association football skills tests allowing generalisation of results from the new protocols to performance constraints that were ‘representative’ of experiences during competitive game situations. However, in this comment we raise some concerns with their use of the term ‘ecological validity’ to allude to aspects of ‘representative task design’. We propose that in their paper the authors confused understanding of environmental properties, performance achievement and generalisability of the test and its outcomes. Here, we argue that the tests designed by Russell and colleagues did not include critical sources of environmental information, such as the active role of opponents, which players typically use to organise their actions during performance. Static tasks which are not representative of the competitive performance environment may lead to different emerging patterns of movement organisation and performance outcomes, failing to effectively evaluate skills performance in sport.