Analysis of technological accidents triggered by natural events (Natech) in the perspective of climate change

The severe accidents deriving from the impact of natural events on industrial installations have become a matter of growing concern in the last decades. In the literature, these events are typically referred to as Natech accidents. Several peculiarities distinguish them from conventional industrial accidents caused by internal factors, such as the possible occurrence of multiple simultaneous failures, and the enhanced probability of cascading events. The research project provides a comprehensive overview of Natech accidents that occurred in the Chemical and Process Industry, allowing for the identification of relevant aspects of Natech events. Quantified event trees and probability of ignition are derived from the collected dataset, providing a step forward in the quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents. The investigation of past Natech accidents also demonstrated that wildfires may cause technological accidents. Climate change and global warming are promoting the conditions for wildfire development and rapid spread. Hence, ensuring the safety of industrial facilities exposed to wildfires is paramount. This was achieved defining safety distances between wildland vegetation and industrial equipment items. In addition, an innovative methodology for the vulnerability assessment of Natech and Domino scenarios triggered by wildfires was developed. The approach accounted for the dynamic behaviour of wildfire events and related technological scenarios. Besides, the performance of the emergency response and the related intervention time in the case of cascading events caused by natural events were evaluated. Overall, the tools presented in this thesis represent a step forward in the Quantitative Risk Assessment of Natech accidents. The methodologies developed also provide a solid basis for the definition of effective strategies for risk mitigation and reduction. These aspects are crucial to improve the resilience of industrial plants to natural hazards, especially considering the effects that climate change may have on the severity of such events.

Multivariate analysis to discriminate top quark pair production channels at LHC

Il quark top �� una delle particelle fondamentali del Modello Standard, ed �� osservato a LHC nelle collisioni a pi�� elevata energia. In particolare, la coppia top-antitop (tt��) �� prodotta tramite interazione forte da eventi gluone-gluone (gg) oppure collisioni di quark e antiquark (qq��). I diversi meccanismi di produzione portano ad avere coppie con propriet�� diverse: un esempio �� lo stato di spin di tt��, che vicino alla soglia di produzione �� maggiormente correlato nel caso di un evento gg. Uno studio che voglia misurare l���entit�� di tali correlazioni risulta quindi essere significativamente facilitato da un metodo di discriminazione delle coppie risultanti sulla base del loro canale di produzione. Il lavoro qui presentato ha quindi lo scopo di ottenere uno strumento per effettuare tale differenziazione, attraverso l���uso di tecniche di analisi multivariata. Tali metodi sono spesso applicati per separare un segnale da un fondo che ostacola l���analisi, in questo caso rispettivamente gli eventi gg e qq��. Si dice che si ha a che fare con un problema di classificazione. Si �� quindi studiata la prestazione di diversi algoritmi di analisi, prendendo in esame le distribuzioni di numerose variabili associate al processo di produzione di coppie tt��. Si �� poi selezionato il migliore in base all���efficienza di riconoscimento degli eventi di segnale e alla reiezione degli eventi di fondo. Per questo elaborato l���algoritmo pi�� performante �� il Boosted Decision Trees, che permette di ottenere da un campione con purezza iniziale 0.81 una purezza finale di 0.92, al costo di un���efficienza ridotta a 0.74.

Is Thyroid Stunning Clinically Relevant? A Retrospective Analysis Of 208 Patients.

Current guidelines have advised against the performance of (131)I-iodide diagnostic whole body scintigraphy (dxWBS) to minimize the occurrence of stunning, and to guarantee the efficiency of radioiodine therapy (RIT). The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of stunning on the efficacy of RIT and disease outcome. This retrospective analysis included 208 patients with differentiated thyroid cancer managed according to a same protocol and followed up for 12-159 months (mean 30 �� 69 months). Patients received RIT in doses ranging from 3,700 to 11,100 MBq (100 mCi to 300 mCi). Post-RIT-whole body scintigraphy images were performed 10 days after RIT in all patients. In addition, images were also performed 24-48 hours after therapy in 22 patients. Outcome was classified as no evidence of disease (NED), stable disease (SD) and progressive disease (PD). Thyroid stunning occurred in 40 patients (19.2%), including 26 patients with NED and 14 patients with SD. A multivariate analysis showed no association between disease outcome and the occurrence of stunning (p = 0.3476). The efficacy of RIT and disease outcome do not seem to be related to thyroid stunning.

Longitudinal Analysis Of Hippocampal T2 Relaxometry In Fmtle.

To investigate the degree of T2 relaxometry changes over time in groups of patients with familial mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (FMTLE) and asymptomatic relatives. We conducted both cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of T2 relaxometry with Aftervoxel, an in-house software for medical image visualization. The cross-sectional study included 35 subjects (26 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives) and 40 controls; the longitudinal study was composed of 30 subjects (21 with FMTLE and 9 asymptomatic relatives; the mean time interval of MRIs was 4.4 �� 1.5 years) and 16 controls. To increase the size of our groups of patients and relatives, we combined data acquired in 2 scanners (2T and 3T) and obtained z-scores using their respective controls. General linear model on SPSS21�� was used for statistical analysis. In the cross-sectional analysis, elevated T2 relaxometry was identified for subjects with seizures and intermediate values for asymptomatic relatives compared to controls. Subjects with MRI signs of hippocampal sclerosis presented elevated T2 relaxometry in the ipsilateral hippocampus, while patients and asymptomatic relatives with normal MRI presented elevated T2 values in the right hippocampus. The longitudinal analysis revealed a significant increase in T2 relaxometry for the ipsilateral hippocampus exclusively in patients with seizures. The longitudinal increase of T2 signal in patients with seizures suggests the existence of an interaction between ongoing seizures and the underlying pathology, causing progressive damage to the hippocampus. The identification of elevated T2 relaxometry in asymptomatic relatives and in patients with normal MRI suggests that genetic factors may be involved in the development of some mild hippocampal abnormalities in FMTLE.

Undulatory Physical Resistance Training Program Increases Maximal Strength In Elderly Type 2 Diabetics.

To investigate the effects of a specific protocol of undulatory physical resistance training on maximal strength gains in elderly type 2 diabetics. The study included 48 subjects, aged between 60 and 85 years, of both genders. They were divided into two groups: Untrained Diabetic Elderly (n=19) with those who were not subjected to physical training and Trained Diabetic Elderly (n=29), with those who were subjected to undulatory physical resistance training. The participants were evaluated with several types of resistance training's equipment before and after training protocol, by test of one maximal repetition. The subjects were trained on undulatory resistance three times per week for a period of 16 weeks. The overload used in undulatory resistance training was equivalent to 50% of one maximal repetition and 70% of one maximal repetition, alternating weekly. Statistical analysis revealed significant differences (p<0.05) between pre-test and post-test over a period of 16 weeks. The average gains in strength were 43.20% (knee extension), 65.00% (knee flexion), 27.80% (supine sitting machine), 31.00% (rowing sitting), 43.90% (biceps pulley), and 21.10% (triceps pulley). Undulatory resistance training used with weekly different overloads was effective to provide significant gains in maximum strength in elderly type 2 diabetic individuals.

Detection Of Explosives On The Surface Of Banknotes By Raman Hyperspectral Imaging And Independent Component Analysis.

The aim of this study was to develop a methodology using Raman hyperspectral imaging and chemometric methods for identification of pre- and post-blast explosive residues on banknote surfaces. The explosives studied were of military, commercial and propellant uses. After the acquisition of the hyperspectral imaging, independent component analysis (ICA) was applied to extract the pure spectra and the distribution of the corresponding image constituents. The performance of the methodology was evaluated by the explained variance and the lack of fit of the models, by comparing the ICA recovered spectra with the reference spectra using correlation coefficients and by the presence of rotational ambiguity in the ICA solutions. The methodology was applied to forensic samples to solve an automated teller machine explosion case. Independent component analysis proved to be a suitable method of resolving curves, achieving equivalent performance with the multivariate curve resolution with alternating least squares (MCR-ALS) method. At low concentrations, MCR-ALS presents some limitations, as it did not provide the correct solution. The detection limit of the methodology presented in this study was 50��gcm(-2).

High Prevalence Of Insulin Resistance Assessed By The Glucose Clamp Technique In Hormonal And Non-hormonal Contraceptive Users.

Objective To assess the prevalence of insulin resistance (IR) and associated factors in contraceptive users. Methods A total of 47 women 18 to 40 years of age with a body mass index (kg/m(2)) < 30, fasting glucose levels < 100 mg/dl and 2-hour glucose level < 140 mg/dl after a 75-g oral glucose load were submitted to a hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp. The women were distributed in tertiles regarding M-values. The analysed variables were use of combined hormonal/non-hormonal contraception, duration of use, body composition, lipid profile, glucose levels and blood pressure. Results IR was detected in 19% of the participants. The women with low M-values presented significantly higher body fat mass, waist-to-hip ratio, fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and were nulligravida, showed > 1 year of contraceptive use and higher triglyceride levels. IR was more frequent among combined oral contraceptive users, however no association was observed after regression analysis. Conclusions The prevalence of IR was high among healthy women attending a family planning clinic independent of the contraceptive method used with possible long-term negative consequences regarding their metabolic and cardiovascular health. Although an association between hormonal contraception and IR could not be found this needs further research. Family planning professionals should be proactive counselling healthy women about the importance of healthy habits.

Comparing Near-infrared Conventional Diffuse Reflectance Spectroscopy And Hyperspectral Imaging For Determination Of The Bulk Properties Of Solid Samples By Multivariate Regression: Determination Of Mooney Viscosity And Plasticity Indices Of Natural Rubber.

Conventional reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) and hyperspectral imaging (HI) in the near-infrared region (1000-2500 nm) are evaluated and compared, using, as the case study, the determination of relevant properties related to the quality of natural rubber. Mooney viscosity (MV) and plasticity indices (PI) (PI0 - original plasticity, PI30 - plasticity after accelerated aging, and PRI - the plasticity retention index after accelerated aging) of rubber were determined using multivariate regression models. Two hundred and eighty six samples of rubber were measured using conventional and hyperspectral near-infrared imaging reflectance instruments in the range of 1000-2500 nm. The sample set was split into regression (n = 191) and external validation (n = 95) sub-sets. Three instruments were employed for data acquisition: a line scanning hyperspectral camera and two conventional FT-NIR spectrometers. Sample heterogeneity was evaluated using hyperspectral images obtained with a resolution of 150 �� 150 ��m and principal component analysis. The probed sample area (5 cm(2); 24,000 pixels) to achieve representativeness was found to be equivalent to the average of 6 spectra for a 1 cm diameter probing circular window of one FT-NIR instrument. The other spectrophotometer can probe the whole sample in only one measurement. The results show that the rubber properties can be determined with very similar accuracy and precision by Partial Least Square (PLS) regression models regardless of whether HI-NIR or conventional FT-NIR produce the spectral datasets. The best Root Mean Square Errors of Prediction (RMSEPs) of external validation for MV, PI0, PI30, and PRI were 4.3, 1.8, 3.4, and 5.3%, respectively. Though the quantitative results provided by the three instruments can be considered equivalent, the hyperspectral imaging instrument presents a number of advantages, being about 6 times faster than conventional bulk spectrometers, producing robust spectral data by ensuring sample representativeness, and minimizing the effect of the presence of contaminants.

Atividades fisicas e estados emocionais : relatos verbais sobre estados emocionais como indicadores dos efeitos de um programa de atividades fisicas para adultos

Universidade Estadual de Campinas. Faculdade de Educa����o F��sica

Production and body composition traits of broilers in relation to breast weight evaluated by path analysis

Breast weight has great economic importance in poultry industry, and may be associated with other variables. This work aimed to estimate phenotypic correlations between performance (live body weight at 7 and 28 days, and at slaughter, and depth of the breast muscle measured by ultrasonography), carcass (eviscerated body weight and leg weight) and body composition (heart, liver and abdominal fat weight) traits in a broiler line, and quantify the direct and indirect influence of these traits on breast weight. Path analysis was used by expanding the matrix of partial correlation in coefficients which give the direct influence of one trait on another, regardless the effect of the other traits. The simultaneous maintenance of live body weight at slaughter and eviscerated body weight in the matrix of correlations might be harmful for statistical analysis involving systems of normal equations, like path analysis, due to the observed multicollinearity. The live body weight at slaughter and the depth of the breast muscle as measured by ultrasonography directly affected breast weight and were identified as the most responsible factors for the magnitude of the correlation coefficients obtained between the studied traits and breast weight. Individual pre-selection for these traits could favor an increased breast weight in the future reproducer candidates of this line if the broilers' environmental conditions and housing are maintained, since the live body weight at slaughter and the depth of breast muscle measured by ultrasonography were directly related to breast weight.

Desidrata����o e recomenda����es para a reposi����o h��drica em crian��as fisicamente ativas

OBJETIVO: A pr��tica de exerc��cios f��sicos, devido �� produ����o inerente de calor, pode conduzir �� desidrata����o. A maioria dos estudos que abordam os riscos da desidrata����o e fornecem recomenda����es de reposi����o h��drica �� direcionada a indiv��duos adultos residentes em regi��es de clima temperado, por��m, em regi��es tropicais, pouco �� conhecido sobre as necessidades de reposi����o h��drica em crian��as fisicamente ativas. Esta revis��o discute as recomenda����es para esta popula����o e estabelece os riscos da pr��tica esportiva em ambiente de clima tropical. FONTES DE DADOS: An��lise sistem��tica com levantamento da literatura nacional (SciELO) e internacional (Medline) de artigos publicados entre 1972 e 2009, com os seguintes descritores isolados ou em combina����o: hidrata����o, crian��as, desidrata����o e reposi����o h��drica. Foram selecionados artigos publicados nas l��nguas portuguesa e inglesa. S��NTESES DE DADOS: Observou-se que h�� riscos de desidrata����o e poss��vel desenvolvimento de um quadro de hipertermia principalmente se as crian��as s��o submetidas a condi����es clim��ticas desfavor��veis sem reposi����o h��drica adequada. O principal fator desencadeante da hipertermia �� a menor adapta����o das crian��as aos extremos de temperatura, em compara����o aos adultos, por possu��rem ��rea maior de superf��cie corporal e capacidade menor de termorregula����o por evapora����o. CONCLUS��ES: Conhecidos os fatores intervenientes da desidrata����o, a melhor recomenda����o, perante uma condi����o clim��tica sabidamente desfavor��vel, �� estabelecer um plano impositivo de hidrata����o com bebida com sabor e acr��scimo de carboidratos e s��dio, evitando-se uma perda h��drica significativa, diminui����o da performance e, principalmente, com o objetivo de reduzir os riscos �� sa��de impostos pela hipertermia e desidrata����o a crian��as fisicamente ativas.

A comparison of the leaf-litter ant fauna in a secondary atlantic forest with an adjacent pine plantation in southeastern Brazil

We investigated the influence of Pinus afforestation on the structure of leaf-litter ant communities in the southeastern Brazilian Atlantic Forest, studying an old secondary forest and a nearly 30 year-old never managed Pinus elliottii reforested area. A total of 12,826 individual ants distributed among 95 species and 32 genera were obtained from 50 1 m�� samples/ habitat. Of these, 60 species were recorded in the pine plantation and 82 in the area of Atlantic forest; almost 50% of the species found in the secondary forest area were also present in the pine plantation. The number of species per sample was significantly higher in the secondary forest than in the pine plantation. Forest-adapted taxa are the most responsible for ant species richness differences between areas, and the pine plantation is richer in species classified as soil or litter omnivorous-dominants. The specialized ant predators registered in the pine plantation, as seven Dacetini, two Basiceros, two Attini and two Discothyrea, belong to widely distributed species. The NMDS (non-metric multidimensional scaling) ordination also suggested strong differences in similarity among samples of the two areas. Furthermore, this analysis indicated higher sample heterogeneity in the secondary forest, with two clusters of species, while in the pine plantation the species belong to a single cluster. We applied the ant mosaic hypothesis to explain the distribution of the leaf-litter fauna and spatial autocorrelation tests among samples. We argue that the results are likely related to differences in quality and distribution of the leaf-litter between the pine plantation and the secondary area.

Brazilian offshore wave climate based on NWW3 reanalysis

This paper provides a description of the wave climate off the Brazilian coast based on an eleven-year time series (Jan/1997-Dec/2007) obtained from the NWW3 operational model hindcast reanalysis. Information about wave climate in Brazilian waters is very scarce and mainly based on occasional short-term observations, the present analysis being the first covering such temporal and spatial scales. To define the wave climate, six sectors were defined and analyzed along the Brazilian shelf-break: South (W1), Southeast (W2), Central (W3), East (W4), Northeast (W5) and North (W6). W1, W2 and W3 wave regimes are determined by the South Atlantic High (SAH) and the passage of synoptic cold fronts; W4, W5 and W6 are controlled by the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and its meridional oscillation. The most energetic waves are from the S, generated by the strong winds associated to the passage of cold fronts, which mainly affect the southern region. Wave power presents a decrease in energy levels from south to north, with its annual variation showing that the winter months are the most energetic in W1 to W4, while in W5 and W6 the most energetic conditions occur during the austral summer. The information presented here provides boundary conditions for studies related to coastal processes, fundamental for a better understanding of the Brazilian coastal zone.

Morphological analysis of three populations of Anopheles (Nyssorhynchus) nuneztovari Gabald��n (Diptera: Culicidae) from Colombia

Based on the results of comparative analyses of 1,039 specimens of several progenies of Anopheles nuneztovarifrom three localities in Colombia, eight costal wing spot patterns were observed. Patterns I and III were the most frequent: 77.96% and 11.36%, respectively. Using the diagnostic characters ratio of the length of the basal dark area of hind tarsomere II/length of hind tarsomere II, ratio of the length of the humeral pale spot/length of the pre-humeral dark spot, and the ratio of the length of the subcostal pale spot/length of the distal sector dark spot (DS-III2/Ta-III2, HP/PHD, SCP/DSD) approximately 5% of the adult females were misidentified as a species of Nyssorhynchus, different from An. nuneztovari. Approximately 5% of the specimens showed DS-III2/Ta-III2 ratio less than 0.25 (range 0.21 - 0.24), and among them 3.34% shared a HP/PHD ratio less than 1.50. Consequently, 1.52% of An. nuneztovari individuals can be misidentified as Anopheles oswaldoi. In those specimens with the DS-III2/Ta-III2 ratios higher than 0.25, 34.45% displayed SCP/DSD values greater than 0.50 and of these, 3.65% displayed HP/PHD values greater than 1.8. This combination of characters could lead one to misidentify samples of An. nuneztovari as Anopheles rangeli. Similarly, 2.43% of the females could be identified erroneously as either Anopheles aquasalis or Anopheles benarrochi. Individuals with a HP/PHD ratio greater than 2.0, could be misidentified as Anopheles trinkae, Anopheles strodei or Anopheles evansae. A distinct combination of diagnostic characters for An. nuneztovari from Colombia is proposed.

Modified Steels for Cold-Forming U-Bolts Used In Leaf Springs Systems

In this work, a low alloy steel and a fabrication process were developed to produce U-Bolts for commercial vehicles. Thus, initially five types of no-heat treated steel were developed with different additions of chrome, nickel, and silicon to produce strain hardening effect during cold-forming processing of the U-Bolts, assuring the required mechanical properties. The new materials exhibited a fine perlite and ferrite microstructure due to aluminum and vanadium additions, well known as grain size refiners. The mechanical properties were evaluated in a servo-hydraulic test machine system-MTS 810 according to ASTM A370-03; E739 and E08m-00 standards. The microstructure and fractography analyses of the cold-formed steels were performed by using optical and scanning electronic microscope techniques. To evaluate the performance of the steels and the production process, fatigue tests were carried out under load control (tensile-tensile), R = 0.1 and f = 30 Hz. The Weibull statistic methodology was used for the analysis of the fatigue results. At the end of this work the 0.21% chrome content steel, Alloy 2, presented the best fatigue performance.