Uncertainties and assessments of chemistry-climate models of the stratosphere

In recent years a number of chemistry-climate models have been developed with an emphasis on the stratosphere. Such models cover a wide range of time scales of integration and vary considerably in complexity. The results of specific diagnostics are here analysed to examine the differences amongst individual models and observations, to assess the consistency of model predictions, with a particular focus on polar ozone. For example, many models indicate a significant cold bias in high latitudes, the “cold pole problem”, particularly in the southern hemisphere during winter and spring. This is related to wave propagation from the troposphere which can be improved by improving model horizontal resolution and with the use of non-orographic gravity wave drag. As a result of the widely differing modelled polar temperatures, different amounts of polar stratospheric clouds are simulated which in turn result in varying ozone values in the models. The results are also compared to determine the possible future behaviour of ozone, with an emphasis on the polar regions and mid-latitudes. All models predict eventual ozone recovery, but give a range of results concerning its timing and extent. Differences in the simulation of gravity waves and planetary waves as well as model resolution are likely major sources of uncertainty for this issue. In the Antarctic, the ozone hole has probably reached almost its deepest although the vertical and horizontal extent of depletion may increase slightly further over the next few years. According to the model results, Antarctic ozone recovery could begin any year within the range 2001 to 2008. The limited number of models which have been integrated sufficiently far indicate that full recovery of ozone to 1980 levels may not occur in the Antarctic until about the year 2050. For the Arctic, most models indicate that small ozone losses may continue for a few more years and that recovery could begin any year within the range 2004 to 2019. The start of ozone recovery in the Arctic is therefore expected to appear later than in the Antarctic.

Understanding the effects of anesthetic agents on the EEG through neural field theory

Anesthetic and analgesic agents act through a diverse range of pharmacological mechanisms. Existing empirical data clearly shows that such "microscopic" pharmacological diversity is reflected in their "macroscopic" effects on the human electroencephalogram (EEG). Based on a detailed mesoscopic neural field model we theoretically posit that anesthetic induced EEG activity is due to selective parametric changes in synaptic efficacy and dynamics. Specifically, on the basis of physiologically constrained modeling, it is speculated that the selective modification of inhibitory or excitatory synaptic activity may differentially effect the EEG spectrum. Such results emphasize the importance of neural field theories of brain electrical activity for elucidating the principles whereby pharmacological agents effect the EEG. Such insights will contribute to improved methods for monitoring depth of anesthesia using the EEG.

On the nature of large-scale mixing in the stratosphere and mesosphere

Studies of tracer transport in the stratosphere have shown that adiabatic quasi-horizontal tracer evolution is controlled primarily by the large-scale low-frequency component of the flow. This behavior is consistent with the concept of chaotic advection, wherein the Eulerian velocity field is spatially coherent and temporally quasi-regular on timescales over which the Lagrangian evolution is chaotic. In this study, winds from a middle atmosphere general circulation model (the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model) are used to compare and contrast the nature of tracer evolution in the stratosphere and mesosphere. It is found that the concept of chaotic advection is relevant in the stratosphere but not in the mesosphere. The explanation for this behavior is the increased strength of gravity wave activity in the mesosphere as compared with the stratosphere, which leads to shallower kinetic energy spectra on synoptic scales and a much shorter Eulerian correlation time. The shallower kinetic energy spectra imply that tracer evolution in the mesosphere is spectrally local, in contrast with the spectrally nonlocal regime that prevails in the stratosphere. This means that tracer advection calculations in the mesosphere are controlled primarily by the gravity wave spectrum and are intrinsically resolution dependent.

A Wiener-Hopf type factorization for the exponential functional of Levy processes

For a Lévy process ξ=(ξt)t≥0 drifting to −∞, we define the so-called exponential functional as follows: Formula Under mild conditions on ξ, we show that the following factorization of exponential functionals: Formula holds, where × stands for the product of independent random variables, H− is the descending ladder height process of ξ and Y is a spectrally positive Lévy process with a negative mean constructed from its ascending ladder height process. As a by-product, we generate an integral or power series representation for the law of Iξ for a large class of Lévy processes with two-sided jumps and also derive some new distributional properties. The proof of our main result relies on a fine Markovian study of a class of generalized Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes, which is itself of independent interest. We use and refine an alternative approach of studying the stationary measure of a Markov process which avoids some technicalities and difficulties that appear in the classical method of employing the generator of the dual Markov process.

The importance of surface pressure changes in the response of the atmosphere to zonally-symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing

he classical problem of the response of a balanced, axisymmetric vortex to thermal and mechanical forcing is re-examined, paying special attention to the lower boundary condition. The correct condition is DΦ/Dt = 0, where Φ is the geopotential and D/Dt the material derivative, which explicitly accounts for a mass redistribution as part of the mean-flow response. This redistribution is neglected when using the boundary condition Dp/Dt = 0, which has conventionally been applied in this problem. It is shown that applying the incorrect boundary condition, and thereby ignoring the surface pressure change, leads to a zonal wind acceleration δū/δt that is too strong, especially near the surface. The effect is significant for planetary-scale forcing even when applied at tropopause level. A comparison is made between the mean-flow evolution in a baroclinic life-cycle, as simulated in a fully nonlinear, primitive-equation model, and that predicted by using the simulated eddy fluxes in the zonally-symmetric response problem. Use of the correct lower boundary condition is shown to lead to improved agreement.

Runge-Kutta IMEX schemes for the Horizontally Explicit/Vertically Implicit (HEVI) solution of wave equations

Many operational weather forecasting centres use semi-implicit time-stepping schemes because of their good efficiency. However, as computers become ever more parallel, horizontally explicit solutions of the equations of atmospheric motion might become an attractive alternative due to the additional inter-processor communication of implicit methods. Implicit and explicit (IMEX) time-stepping schemes have long been combined in models of the atmosphere using semi-implicit, split-explicit or HEVI splitting. However, most studies of the accuracy and stability of IMEX schemes have been limited to the parabolic case of advection–diffusion equations. We demonstrate how a number of Runge–Kutta IMEX schemes can be used to solve hyperbolic wave equations either semi-implicitly or HEVI. A new form of HEVI splitting is proposed, UfPreb, which dramatically improves accuracy and stability of simulations of gravity waves in stratified flow. As a consequence it is found that there are HEVI schemes that do not lose accuracy in comparison to semi-implicit ones. The stability limits of a number of variations of trapezoidal implicit and some Runge–Kutta IMEX schemes are found and the schemes are tested on two vertical slice cases using the compressible Boussinesq equations split into various combinations of implicit and explicit terms. Some of the Runge–Kutta schemes are found to be beneficial over trapezoidal, especially since they damp high frequencies without dropping to first-order accuracy. We test schemes that are not formally accurate for stiff systems but in stiff limits (nearly incompressible) and find that they can perform well. The scheme ARK2(2,3,2) performs the best in the tests.

Content validation for level of use of feature rich systems: a Delphi study of electronic medical records systems

Introduction. Feature usage is a pre-requisite to realising the benefits of investments in feature rich systems. We propose that conceptualising the dependent variable 'system use' as 'level of use' and specifying it as a formative construct has greater value for measuring the post-adoption use of feature rich systems. We then validate the content of the construct as a first step in developing a research instrument to measure it. The context of our study is the post-adoption use of electronic medical records (EMR) by primary care physicians. Method. Initially, a literature review of the empirical context defines the scope based on prior studies. Having identified core features from the literature, they are further refined with the help of experts in a consensus seeking process that follows the Delphi technique. Results.The methodology was successfully applied to EMRs, which were selected as an example of feature rich systems. A review of EMR usage and regulatory standards provided the feature input for the first round of the Delphi process. A panel of experts then reached consensus after four rounds, identifying ten task-based features that would be indicators of level of use. Conclusions. To study why some users deploy more advanced features than others, theories of post-adoption require a rich formative dependent variable that measures level of use. We have demonstrated that a context sensitive literature review followed by refinement through a consensus seeking process is a suitable methodology to validate the content of this dependent variable. This is the first step of instrument development prior to statistical confirmation with a larger sample.

Effects of second language on cognition in English users of L2 Japanese

It is now established that certain cognitive processes such as categorisation are tightly linked to the concepts encoded in language. Recent studies have shown that bilinguals with languages that differ in their concepts may show a shift in their cognition towards the L2 pattern primarily as a function of their L2 proficiency. This research has so far focused predominantly on L2 users who started learning the L2 in childhood or early puberty. The current study asks whether similar effects can be found in adult L2 learners. English speakers of L2 Japanese were given an object classification task involving real physical objects, and an online classification task involving artificial novel objects. Results showed a shift towards the L2 pattern, indicating that some degree of cognitive plasticity exists even when a second language is acquired later in life. These results have implications for theories of L2 acquisition and bilingualism, and contribute towards our understanding of the nature of the relationship between language and cognition in the L2 user’s mind.

The effect of the national setting on employment practice: the case of downsizing

Although there is now a sizeable body of academic literature that tries to explain cross-country differences in terms of corporate control, capital market development, investor protection and politics, there is as yet very little literature on the degrees of protection accorded to other corporate stakeholders such as employees, based on a systematic comparison of firm level evidence. We find that both theories of legal origin and the varieties of capitalism approach are poor predictors of the relative propensity of firms to make redundancies in different settings. However, the political orientation of the government in place and even more so the nature of the electoral system are relatively good explanators of this propensity. In other words, political structures and outcomes matter more than more rigid institutional features such as legal origin. We explore the reasons for this, drawing out the implications for both theory and practice.

Individual differences and the role of the L1 in L2 processing: an ERP investigation

This study used ERP (event-related potentials) to examine both the role of the L1 and the role of individual differences in the processing of agreement violations. Theories of L2 acquisition differ with regard to whether or not native-like acquisition of L2 features is possible (Schwartz and Sprouse, 1994, 1996; Tsimpli and Mastropavlou, 2007), and the results of previous ERP studies are inconsistent when it comes to whether or not native-like processing is observed in response to L2 agreement violations (e.g., Sabourin, 2003; Tokowicz and MacWhinney, 2005). Furthermore, studies of learners in early stages of L2 acquisition have found variability in the emergence of native-like responses (e.g., McLaughlin et al., 2010; Tanner et al., 2009), but sources of variability have not been investigated. The current study examines responses to gender and number agreement violations in English-speaking learners of Spanish (n=24). Stimuli targeted agreement in three conditions: subject-verb agreement (el barco flota/*flotan), which is similar in Spanish and English; number agreement on adjectival predicates (la isla rocosa/*rocosas), a context in which agreement is not instantiated in English; and gender agreement on adjectival predicates (la isla rocosa/*rocoso), which is unique to Spanish. Grammaticality judgments and ERP responses were also tested for correlations with aptitude scores on the Modern Languages Aptitude Test (MLAT; Carroll and Sapon, 1959) and the Raven Advanced Progressive Matrices (Raven, 1965). Results are in line with theories that claim native-like processing is acquirable, since learners demonstrated similar ERP responses to a control group of native Spanish-speakers (n=8) with regard to all three agreement types. Additionally, the MLAT (but not the Raven) was significantly correlated with sensitivity to number violations, both in terms of grammaticality judgments and ERP amplitudes, indicating a role for verbal but not nonverbal aptitude in L2 processing.

Age differences in brain activity during emotion processing: reflections of age-Related decline or increased emotion regulation?

Despite the fact that physical health and cognitive abilities decline with aging, the ability to regulate emotion remains stable and in some aspects improves across the adult life span. Older adults also show a positivity effect in their attention and memory, with diminished processing of negative stimuli relative to positive stimuli compared with younger adults. The current paper reviews functional magnetic resonance imaging studies investigating age-related differences in emotional processing and discusses how this evidence relates to two opposing theoretical accounts of older adults’ positivity effect. The aging-brain model [Cacioppo et al. in: Social Neuroscience: Toward Understanding the Underpinnings of the Social Mind. New York, Oxford University Press, 2011] proposes that older adults’ positivity effect is a consequence of age-related decline in the amygdala, whereas the cognitive control hypothesis [Kryla-Lighthall and Mather in: Handbook of Theories of Aging, ed 2. New York, Springer, 2009; Mather and Carstensen: Trends Cogn Sci 2005;9:496–502; Mather and Knight: Psychol Aging 2005;20:554–570] argues that the positivity effect is a result of older adults’ greater focus on regulating emotion. Based on evidence for structural and functional preservation of the amygdala in older adults and findings that older adults show greater prefrontal cortex activity than younger adults while engaging in emotion-processing tasks, we argue that the cognitive control hypothesis is a more likely explanation for older adults’ positivity effect than the aging-brain model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

Workaround motivation model (WAMM): an adaptation of the Theory of Interpersonal Behaviour

The study of workarounds (WA) has increased in importance due to their impact on patient safety and efficiency. However, there are no adequate theories to explain the motivation to create and use a workaround in a healthcare sitting. Although theories of technology acceptance help to understand the reasons to accept or reject technology, they fail to explain drivers for alternatives. Also workarounds involve creators and performers that have different motivations. Models such as Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) or Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA) can help to explain the role of workaround users, but lack explanation of workaround creators’ dynamics. Our aim is to develop a theoretical foundation to explain workaround motivation behaviour models with norms that relate to sanctions to provide an integrated Workaround Motivation Model; WAMM. The development of WAMM model is explained in this paper based on workaround cases as part of further research to establish the model.

Persuasive technology and users acceptance of e-commerce: users perceptions of website persuasiveness

Persuasive technologies have been extensively applied in the context of e-commerce for the purpose of marketing, enhancing system credibility, and motivating users to adopt the systems. Recognising that persuasion impacts on consumer behaviour to purchase online have not been investigated previously. This study reviews theories of technology acceptance, and identifies their limitation in not considering the effect of persuasive technologies when determining user online technology acceptance. The study proposes a theoretical model that considers the effect of persuasive technologies on consumer acceptance of e-commerce websites; with consideration of other related variables, i.e. trust and technological attributes. Moreover the paper proposes a model based on the UTAUT2, which contains relevant contributing factors; including the concept of perceived persuasiveness.