A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

A pénzügyi eszközök szerepe az Európai Unió kohéziós politikájában (Cohesion policy - The role of financial instruments)

A tanulmány az Európai Unió strukturális és kohéziós alapjaiból létrehozott pénzügyi eszközök szerepét és perspektíváit elemzi. A téma aktualitását adja, hogy jelenleg zajlik a 2014–2020-as uniós költségvetési és programozási időszak előkészítése, amelynek során a pénzügyi eszközök az uniós elképzelések szerint az eddigieknél lényegesen jelentősebb szerepet játszanak majd. A szerző áttekinti a kohéziós politika keretében működő pénzügyi eszközök jelenlegi rendszerének legfőbb jellemzőit, bemutatja azokat a gyökeres változásokat, amelyek 2014-től kezdődően várhatóan jellemezni fogják a kapcsolódó szabályozási környezetet, végül pedig ismerteti a gyakorlatban működő jelentősebb programokat, amelyek referenciapontként is használhatók a programok tervezése során. _____ The paper examines the role and perspectives of financial instruments established from the structural and cohesion funds of the European Union. Hungary is one of the most significant beneficiaries of the structural and cohesion funds, therefore the interested national actors should know well the new support forms, in order to use them successfully in the next programming period. The article gives an overview about the current structure of financial instruments in the framework of the cohesion policy. The comprehensive changes of the regulatory environment expected from 2014 are also presented, and finally the major instruments in practice will be reviewed, that can serve as reference points in planning of future programmes.

Az autóipar szerkezeti átrendeződése – Vállalati stratégiák és a válság hatásai (Structural change in the automotive industry – corporate strategies and the impact of the crisis)

Az írás a globális értékláncok élén álló autóipari cégek világgazdasági válságra adott reakcióit foglalja össze. Megállapítja, hogy a válságnak messze nincs vége: az iparág globális átrendeződése folytatódik. A globális értékláncokba sikeresen betagozódott közép-európai autóipari klaszter ezeknek a folyamatoknak mindmáig nyertese volt. Számolni kell azonban azzal, hogy továbbra is sok a technológiai és a piaci bizonytalanság: az új szereplők belépése, új üzleti modellek elterjedése hosszabb távon felboríthatja a jelenlegi status quo-t, és veszélyeztetheti a hagyományos autóipari befektetőiket munkabér-alapú versenyképességgel megtartani próbáló közép- és kelet-európai országok pozícióit. Az autóipari működő tőkét fogadó közép-kelet-európai országok számára hosszabb távon veszélyt jelenthet az autóipari üzleti modellek átalakulása, a gyártás teljes kiszervezése komplex gyártási szolgáltatást vállaló cégekhez, mivel ez esetben az értéklánc vezető vállalatai bezárhatják a régióban működő gyártóbázisaikat. Az értékláncok élén álló globális cégek „menekülés a minőségbe” stratégiája helyi szinten is követhető, követendő, a működő tőkét fogadó országok versenyképessége kizárólag a helyi leányvállalatok állandó „feljebb lépésével” tartható fenn. ______ This paper summarizes lead firms’ reactions to crisis in global automotive value chains. The paper advances five theses. Author argues that crisis is not over yet, the global restructuring of the industry continues. Actors in the CEE automotive cluster have successfully become integrated into global value chains and have thereby been the winners of past restructuring processes. Nevertheless, technological and market uncertainties prevail: entry of new economic actors and the diffusion of new business models may, in the long run, disrupt the current status quo and jeopardise the world economic position of CEE countries that have been relying solely on their labour cost advantages to sustain direct investment inflows in their automotive industries. In the long run the automotive industries of Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies may become threatened by the transformation of the prevailing automotive business model, the outsourcing of manufacturing and related support activities to complex manufacturing services providers, which could lead to the closure of lead firms’ manufacturing facilities in CEE. Lead firms’ increased focus on high quality high value adding activities strategy can and should be followed by local subsidiaries through a continuous strive for upgrading.

A study of state and trait anxiety and perceived causes of anxiety identified by licensed practical nurses returning to an associate degree nursing program

The purpose of this study was to identify the state and trait anxiety and the perceived causes of anxiety in licensed practical nurses (LPNs) returning to an associate degree nursing program in order to become registered nurses (RNs). The subjects for this study were 98 students enrolled in a transitional LPN/RN associate degree nursing program in two community colleges in the state of Florida. The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) developed by Spielberger (1983), was used as the measuring instrument for this study.^ In addition, a Q-sort technique was used to obtain information from the subjects regarding perceived causes of anxiety. Anxiety causes for the Q-sort cards used in the study were developed from the themes identified by a sample of LPN/RN students in a pilot study. The state and trait anxiety levels were obtained using the STAI for college students scoring key and scales. Descriptive statistics were used to determine the state and trait anxiety of the students. Correlational statistics were used to determine if relationships existed between the state and trait anxiety levels and perceived causes of anxiety identified by LPN students returning to an associate degree nursing program.^ The analysis of the Q-sort was performed by computing the means, standard deviations, and frequencies of each cause. The mean trait anxiety level of the students was 57.56, $SD=29.69.$ The mean state anxiety level of the students was 68.21, $SD=25.78.$ Higher percentile scores of trait anxiety were associated with higher ranks of the Q-sort category, "failing out of the program," $\rm r\sb{s}=.27,\ p=.008.$ Implications for future nursing research and application of the findings to nursing education are presented. ^

Investigation of the causes of serious injury and fatal crashes: An analysis using econometric models

The rate of fatal crashes in Florida has remained significantly higher than the national average for the last several years. The 2003 statistics from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the latest available, show a fatality rate in Florida of 1.71 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled compared to the national average of 1.48 per 100 million vehicle-miles traveled. The objective of this research is to better understand the driver, environmental, and roadway factors that affect the probability of injury severity in Florida. ^ In this research, the ordered logit model was used to develop six injury severity models; single-vehicle and two-vehicle crashes on urban freeways and urban principal arterials and two-vehicle crashes at urban signalized and unsignalized intersections. The data used in this research included all crashes that occurred on the state highway system for the period from 2001 to 2003 in the Southeast Florida region, which includes the Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties.^ The results of the analysis indicate that the age group and gender of the driver at fault were significant factors of injury severity risk across all models. The greatest risk of severe injury was observed for the age groups 55 to 65 and 66 and older. A positive association between injury severity and the race of the driver at fault was also found. Driver at fault of Hispanic origin was associated with a higher risk of severe injury for both freeway models and for the two-vehicle crash model on arterial roads. A higher risk of more severe injury crash involvement was also found when an African-American was the at fault driver on two-vehicle crashes on freeways. In addition, the arterial class was also found to be positively associated with a higher risk of severe crashes. Six-lane divided arterials exhibited the highest injury severity risk of all arterial classes. The lowest severe injury risk was found for one way roads. Alcohol involvement by the driver at fault was also found to be a significant risk of severe injury for the single-vehicle crash model on freeways. ^

Consequences of financial restatements for auditors and top executives

This dissertation consists of three essays and investigates issues related to the impact of financial restatements on auditor change, shareholder actions, and executive turnover in the post-Sarbanes Oxley Act (SOX) period. For the first essay, we examined auditor change at 569 restatement firms and 5,605 control firms for 2004. We found that restatement announcements significantly increased the likelihood of auditor resignation and dismissal in the post-SOX period. The second essay examines shareholder voting on auditor ratifications in 2006 following restatement announcements by SEC registrants in 2005. The proportion of votes not supporting auditor ratification is low even in the presence of a restatement. However, we find that shareholders are more likely to vote against auditor ratification after a restatement when compared to votes at (a) films without restatements, or (b) restating firms in the preceding period. The third essay examines the consequences of financial restatements on the turnover of chief financial officers (CFO). We find that restatement announcements do significantly increase the likelihood of CFO turnover no matter whether the departure is voluntary or forced in nature. Also, the significant relationship is present even after controlling for the effect of CEO turnover.

Revisiting the Ethics of Financial Executives in the Lodging Industry

This study revisited ethics in the hospitality industry and involved a randomly selected sample of lodging financial executives taken from the current membership roster of the Hospitality Financial and Technology Professionals (HFTP). After responding to a number of demographic questions, financial executives were asked to respond to 16 business scenarios that involved the issue of ethics. In addition, financial executives were asked if they would or would not do what the controller did in each scenario. Finally, responses of financial executives in the current study were compared to the responses of financial executives in a previous study. Findings indicate that there is considerable disagreement among financial executives regarding the ethical dimensions of common business scenarios

Frameworks for Systemic and Structural Analysis of Financial Innovations in Infrastructure

Financial innovations have emerged globally to close the gap between the rising global demand for infrastructures and the availability of financing sources offered by traditional financing mechanisms such as fuel taxation, tax-exempt bonds, and federal and state funds. The key to sustainable innovative financing mechanisms is effective policymaking. This paper discusses the theoretical framework of a research study whose objective is to structurally and systemically assess financial innovations in global infrastructures. The research aims to create analysis frameworks, taxonomies and constructs, and simulation models pertaining to the dynamics of the innovation process to be used in policy analysis. Structural assessment of innovative financing focuses on the typologies and loci of innovations and evaluates the performance of different types of innovative financing mechanisms. Systemic analysis of innovative financing explores the determinants of the innovation process using the System of Innovation approach. The final deliverables of the research include propositions pertaining to the constituents of System of Innovation for infrastructure finance which include the players, institutions, activities, and networks. These static constructs are used to develop a hybrid Agent-Based/System Dynamics simulation model to derive propositions regarding the emergent dynamics of the system. The initial outcomes of the research study are presented in this paper and include: (a) an archetype for mapping innovative financing mechanisms, (b) a System of Systems-based analysis framework to identify the dimensions of Systems of Innovation analyses, and (c) initial observations regarding the players, institutions, activities, and networks of the System of Innovation in the context of the U.S. transportation infrastructure financing.

Global Capitalism, Immigrant Labor, and the Struggle for Justice

Around the world borders are militarized, states are stepping up repressive anti-immigrant controls, and native publics are turning immigrants into scapegoats for the spiraling crisis of global capitalism. The massive displacement and primitive accumulation unleashed by free trade agreements and neo-liberal policies, as well as state and “private” violence has resulted in a virtually inexhaustible immigrant labor reserve for the global economy. State controls over immigration and immigrant labor have several functions for the system: 1) state repression and criminalization of undocumented immigration make immigrants vulnerable and deportable and therefore subject to conditions of super-exploitation, super-control and hyper-surveillance; 2) anti-immigrant repressive apparatuses are themselves ever more important sources of accumulation, ranging from private for-profit immigrant detention centers, to the militarization of borders, and the purchase by states of military hardware and systems of surveillance. Immigrant labor is extremely profitable for the transnational corporate economy; 3) the anti-immigrant policies associated with repressive state apparatuses help turn attention away from the crisis of global capitalism among more privileged sectors of the working class and convert immigrant workers into scapegoats for the crisis, thus deflecting attention from the root causes of the crisis and undermining working class unity. This article focuses on structural and historical underpinnings of the phenomenon of immigrant labor in the new global capitalist system and on how the rise of a globally integrated production and financial system, a transnational capitalist class, and transnational state apparatuses, have led to a reorganization of the world market in labor, including deeper reliance on a rapidly expanding reserve army of immigrant labor and a vicious new anti-immigrant politics. It looks at the United States as an illustration of the larger worldwide situation with regard to immigration and immigrant justice. Finally, it explores the rise of an immigrant justice movement around the world, observes the leading role that immigrant workers often play in worker’s struggles and that a mass immigrant rights movement is at the cutting edge of the struggle against transnational corporate exploitation. We call for replacing the whole concept of national citizenship with that of global citizenship as the only rallying cry that can assure justice and equality for all.

Investigation into possible causes of elevated ozone concentrations in Miami, Florida

Ozone readings which exceeded the National Ambient Air Quality Standard of 120 ppbv were recorded in Miami, Florida during 1978 and 1980. Similar elevated concentrations of ozone extended across upper Florida and into the Southeastern portion of the United States. It is concluded that tropospheric transport of ozone into the Miami area occurs. This conclusion is supported by lead analyses of atmospheric samples taken in Miami and by isentropic trajectories. Six case studies are presented. In all cases transport of ozone into Florida appears to occur. In only four of the cases does this result in elevated ozone levels in Miami. In one case lower Florida was experiencing an oceanic influx of air and low ozone concentrations. In the other case Miami was experiencing a stagnation and high ozone concentrations apparently generated locally. The long range transport of ozone across the Southeastern United States appears to result from circulation within a weather pattern characterized by a stagnant high pressure system over the Southeastern United States.

Causes of Childhood Blindness in North Ghana: Results From a School for the Blind in Wa, Upper West Region

Background: Because most developing countries lack sufficient resources and infrastructure to conduct population-based studies on childhood blindness, it can be difficult to obtain epidemiologically reliable data available for planning public health strategies to effectively address the major determinants of childhood blindness. The major etiologies of blindness can differ regionally and intra-regionally. The objective of this retrospective study was to determine (1) the major causes of childhood blindness (BL) and severe visual impairment (SVI) in students who attend Wa Methodist School for the Blind in Upper West Region, North Ghana, and (2) any potential temporal trends in the causes of blindness for this region.

Methods: In this retrospective study, demographic data and clinical information from an eye screening at Wa Methodist School for the Blind were coded according to the World Health Organization/Prevention of Blindness standardized reporting methodology. Causes of BL and SVI were categorized anatomically and etiologically. We determined the major causes of BL/SVI over time using information provided about the age at onset of visual loss for each student.

Results: The major anatomical causes of BL/SVI among the 190 students screened were corneal opacity and phthisis bulbi (n=28, 15%), optic atrophy (n=23, 13%), glaucoma (n=18, 9%), microphthalmos (n=18, 9%), and cataract (n=18, 9%). Within the first year of life, students became blind mainly due to whole globe causes (n=23, 26%), cataract (n=15, 17%), and optic atrophy (n=11, 13%). Those who became blind after age one year had whole globe causes (n=26, 26%), corneal opacity (n=24, 24%), and optic atrophy (n=13, 13%).

Conclusion: At the Wa Methodist School for the Blind, the major anatomical causes of BL/SVI were corneal opacity and phthisis bulbi. About half of all students became blind within the first year of life, and were disproportionately affected by cataract and retinal causes in comparison to the other students who became blind after age one year. While research in blind schools has a number of implicit disadvantages and limitations, considering the temporal trends and other epidemiological factors of blindness may increase the usefulness and/or implications of the data that come from blind school studies in order to improve screening methods for newborns in hospitals and primary care centers, and to help tailor preventative and treatment programs to reduce avoidable childhood blindness in neonates and schoolchildren.

The quality of financial information in the extractive industries: a value relevance analysis

The extractive industry is characterized by high levels of risk and uncertainty. These attributes create challenges when applying traditional accounting concepts (such as the revenue recognition and matching concepts) to the preparation of financial statements in the industry. The International Accounting Standards Board (2010) states that the objective of general purpose financial statements is to provide useful financial information to assist the capital allocation decisions of existing and potential providers of capital. The usefulness of information is defined as being relevant and faithfully represented so as to best aid in the investment decisions of capital providers. Value relevance research utilizes adaptations of the Ohlson (1995) to assess the attribute of value relevance which is one part of the attributes resulting in useful information. This study firstly examines the value relevance of the financial information disclosed in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings reveal that the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports depends on the circumstances of the firm including sector, size and profitability. Traditional accounting concepts such as the matching concept can be ineffective when applied to small firms who are primarily engaged in nonproduction activities that involve significant levels of uncertainty such as exploration activities or the development of sites. Standard setting bodies such as the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board have addressed the financial reporting challenges in the extractive industry by allowing a significant amount of accounting flexibility in industryspecific accounting standards, particularly in relation to the accounting treatment of exploration and evaluation expenditure. Therefore, secondly this study examines whether the choice of exploration accounting policy has an effect on the value relevance of information disclosed in the financial reports. The findings show that, in general, the Successful Efforts method produces value relevant information in the financial reports of profitable extractive firms. However, specifically in the oil & gas sector, the Full Cost method produces value relevant asset disclosures if the firm is lossmaking. This indicates that investors in production and non-production orientated firms have different information needs and these needs cannot be simultaneously fulfilled by a single accounting policy. In the mining sector, a preference by large profitable mining companies towards a more conservative policy than either the Full Cost or Successful Efforts methods does not result in more value relevant information being disclosed in the financial reports. This finding supports the fact that the qualitative characteristic of prudence is a form of bias which has a downward effect on asset values. The third aspect of this study is an examination of the effect of corporate governance on the value relevance of disclosures made in the financial reports of extractive firms. The findings show that the key factor influencing the value relevance of financial information is the ability of the directors to select accounting policies which reflect the economic substance of the particular circumstances facing the firms in an effective way. Corporate governance is found to have an effect on value relevance, particularly in the oil & gas sector. However, there is no significant difference between the exploration accounting policy choices made by directors of firms with good systems of corporate governance and those with weak systems of corporate governance.

Media amplification of brand crisis and its affect on brand trust

This paper explores the ways in which consumers’ brand trust during a brand crisis is affected through direct experience versus when it is amplified through mass media. By using case-study methodology, our findings reveal that generalised public images of a product crisis initiate a public perception of risk, which provides more negative effects on brand trust than the actual consumers’ experience does. We introduce the media as a third partner influencing the trust relationship between consumers and brands, and offer suggestions for restoring and preserving customers’ brand trust.

The genetic basis of psychological traits in infancy: Implications for understanding the causes of developmental psychopathology

This chapter reviews genetic studies that have aimed to identify genes influencing psychological traits in infancy (from birth to age 12 months), and considers how this research informs us about the causes of developmental psychopathology. Specifically, this chapter systematically reviews findings from studies that associated common genetic variants with individual variation in infants’ attention, temperament and behaviour, and attachment disorganisation. DRD4 and 5-HTTLPR genes were the most frequently studied candidate genes. Possibly the most coherent set of results relates to the L-DRD4 genotype, which is significantly associated with infant attention, temperament, and attachment style. Research in infant genetics has been strengthened by a careful focus on uniform age ranges within studies, by several longitudinal studies, and by exploration of gene-environment interactions between genes and maternal characteristics. However there is also considerable inconsistency in results in this field and possible reasons for this are discussed. The chapter outlines the main genetic methods that have been used and what new genetic approaches such as polygenic risk scoring could offer infant genetics. Recent findings suggest that some traits during infancy predict individual differences in developmental psychopathology in childhood. It is argued that infant genetic research has considerable potential for the identification of populations at risk for psychopathology in later life, and this remains an area open for future research.