Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Democratização do acesso ao ensino superior: os cursos de graduação à distância na UFRN

This thesis pursuits to contextualize the theoretical debate between the implementation of public education policy of the Federal Government focused in a distance learning and legal foundations for its enforcement, in order to raise questions and comments on the topic in question. Its importance is back to provide scientific input and can offer to the academy, particularly in the UFRN, and elements of society to question and rethink the complex relationship between the socio-economic and geographic access to higher education. It consists of a descriptive study on the institutionalization of distance education in UFRN as a mechanism for expanding access to higher education, for both, the research seeks to understand if the distance undergraduate courses offered by the UAB system and implemented at UFRN, promote expanding access to higher education, as it is during implementation that the rules, routines and social processes are converted from intentions to action. The discussion of this study lasted between two opposing views of Implementation models: Top-down and Bottom-up. It is worth noting that the documents PNE, PDE and programs and UAB MEETING reflect positively in improving the educational level of the population of the country It is a qualitative study, using the means Bibliographic, Document and Field Study, where they were performed 04 (four) in 2010 interviews with the management framework SEDIS / UAB in UFRN. The data were analyzed and addressed through techniques: Document Analysis and Content Analysis. The results show that the process of implementation of distance education at UFRN is in progress. According to our results, the research objective is achieved, but there was a need to rethink the conditions of the infrastructure of poles, the structure of the academic calendar, the management of the SEDIS UFRN, regarding the expansion of existing vacancies and the supply of new courses by the need for a redesign as the Secretariat's ability to hold the offerings of undergraduate courses offered by the Federal Government to be implemented in the institution. It was also found that levels of evasion still presents a challenge to the teaching model. Given the context, we concluded that the greatest contribution of UAB and consequently UFRN by distance learning for undergraduate courses (Bachelor in Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, Geography and Biological Sciences, beyond the bachelor's degrees in Business and Public Administration ) is related to increasing the number of vacancies and accessibility of a population that was previously deprived of access to university

De volta para os braços da rainha dos céus: migração, memória e festa em Caicó/RN

The present work has as an objective to seize up some particular meanings of the Feast of Sant Ana (The saint which represents the city of Caicó/RN), a central event of the calendar festive-religious of that city, looking for to perceive on how it combines with the symbolic poles sacred: profane through the social bonds that are present there performed and expressed through the social networking and of local belongings. Such bond ties reveal themselves through a very especial manner, through the migration of returning to the feast, when collectively are produced and updated knowledge and codes that reinforce the representation of the local belonging, nominated as being caicoense . We seek on perceiving how the many events of this feast (from a perspective of a religious order as well as laic) acting on a conclusive way to an identity of the re-meaning of that city, especially in its relation with the migrant natives: the sons and daughters that return to the arms of Sant Ana

Nego veio é um sofrer : uma etnografia da subalternidade e do subalterno numa irmandade do Rosário

The object of this work is a fellowship of São Sebastião e Nossa Senhora do Rosário in the city of Jardim do Seridó (RN), that is, a black catholic fellowship on the sertão potiguar. The devotion to Nossa Senhora do Rosário, in colonial Brazil, organizes itself through black catholic men as fellowships. They blossomed in Brazil until the abolition, getting support from the Catholic church, from owners of slaves and from the population in general − unlike others afro-Brazilian religious expression. Today, these fellowships remain active, against the sentimental pessimism of the folklore studies, and they also have a highlight position in the calendar of many cities in Brazil, and in particular in Seridó. The research s foothold is the apparent valorization of the fellowship by the local elite, attitude that hides asymmetric relationships between the group of negros do Rosário and the local authorities, having as its consequence that the members occupy a subaltern position inside their own fellowship. This subalternity take place, mainly, in the public area, where the negros do Rosário cannot represent themselves neither political nor discursively. To discuss this idea, it s done a brief historical of these catholic institutions as well as a description of the relationship between the negros do Rosário and the elites of the city. Then, the phenomenon is analyzed as folklore and/or religion , under the perspective of many agents that participate in this process. In other moment, it is going to be presented how the group formulates their own representation of the history, of the devotional forms and of their own political-religious experiences. In this sense, an ethnography of the subalternity is understood as an analysis of the process that leads the negros do Rosário to become a subaltern group. It s also outlined the perception that the group has of its own position, through an ethnography essay of the subaltern subject. The research, focused in the group of Rosário, was done between August 2010 and January 2012 and includes other agents (like treasurers, priests and intellectuals). Besides that, as a methodological complement, there are documental research, photography, as well as shoots of the party days and public presentation

Transfer function-noise modeling and spatial interpolation to evaluate the risk of extreme (shallow) water-table levels in the Brazilian Cerrados

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Gregório de Matos: do barroco à antropofagia

The exponential figure of Gregório de Matos e Guerra has been subject of many theoretical discussions through the years, since his apparition in a public place, in the 19th century, and even more, during the 20th century, when he was salvaged by the modernist vanguard. As a result, there are yet two antagonist points of view linked to Gregório de Matos, on one side, there some researchers who defend him, on the other, some of them attack him. The first ones say this poet from Bahia was the first literary voice in Brazil, from the Baroque basis, while the last ones say he is a merely plagiarist of the Spanish poets from the 17th century, without a real contribution to the development of Brazilian Literature. With this in mind, this thesis follows the perspective this poet is an anthropophagus-baroque, devouring cultures, with an active participation in the process of our cultural and literary identity. For that reason, it was made a literature review about the biography of this poet trying to break romantic descriptions, emphasizing some scientific facts that can contribute to present the baroque profile of this poet. In this sense, it was discussed the History of Literature focused on this creole poet, mainly based on the historians point of view about the Gregorian poetry in the formation of Brazilian Literature scenery. In the defense of the hypothesis that Gregório de Matos was our first anthropophagus, this work aims to analyze how his poetry reveals the intrinsic characteristics of Baroque and Anthropophagy, focusing its carnivalesque aspect, showing to the world, with a satiric tone, the idiosyncrasies of human life. In this way, analyzing this corpus in Spanish is the strength of this thesis because, besides it is previously unpublished, it contributes to the comprehension of the anthropophagy as a theoretical mechanism that explains the process of formation of our cultural literary identity. Then, we have Augusto de Campos (1968; 1978; 1984; 1986; 1988), Haroldo de Campos (1976; 2010a; 2010b; 2011), Severo Sarduy ([1988?]), Oswald de Andrade (1945; 1978; 2006), Mikhail Bakhtin (2010), Octavio Paz (1979), Segismundo Spina (1980; 1995; 2008), Afrânio Coutinho (1986a; 1986b; 1994), Affonso Ávila (1994; 1997; 2004; 2008), among others, to constitute this theoretical scenery. The Gregorian poetry, in this way, have contributed to the formation of baroque-anthropophagic scenery in Brazilian boundaries, with a special attention to the transition of time, because he is not only from the 17th century, established by the historiography, but his work is present nowadays due to the contemporaneously of his themes, centered to the eternal doubts of baroque man

O esporte e suas implicações na saúde óssea de atletas adolescentes

A adolescência é um período fundamental para a aquisição da massa óssea. em adolescentes atletas, o pico de massa óssea pode apresentar maior incremento, em virtude do estresse mecânico imposto aos ossos pelo exercício físico praticado. O objetivo desta revisão foi investigar o papel do treinamento esportivo vigoroso e precoce sobre a saúde óssea de atletas adolescentes. Através da revisão da literatura científica, envolvendo adolescentes atletas de diferentes modalidades e de ambos os sexos, é possível inferir que a densidade mineral óssea é potencializada pelos exercícios, quando grupos de atletas são comparados com grupos de controle. Entretanto, muito se discute na literatura quanto à recomendação da intensidade adequada da prescrição de exercício físico para população adolescente, uma vez que, caso o treinamento se torne muito extenuante, os benefícios gerados pela atividade sobre a saúde dos ossos podem ser minimizados ou anulados. Embora muita controvérsia ainda envolva o tema, independente do tipo de esporte praticado, o aumento de intensidade do treinamento deve ser razoável e coerente com as metas, sendo enfatizado treinamento seguro e eficaz para cada uma das faixas de idade e momentos da maturação biológica, independente dos calendários competitivos.

Experiências de famílias na imunização de crianças brasileiras menores de dois anos

O objetivo foi descrever as experiências de famílias sobre imunização de crianças menores de dois anos. É estudo de natureza descritiva, com análise qualitativa dos dados, entrevistas não estruturadas com 22 sujeitos. Os resultados foram agrupados em: conhecimentos práticos sobre imunização, responsabilidade e obrigatoriedade na imunização e ampliação da prática de imunização. Foram destacados elementos que fortalecem a imunização: experiência e realização pessoal no papel de ser mãe, temor de adoecimento, reconhecimento como um bom cuidado, acesso, flexibilidade do horário, divulgação, cartão de vacinas, campanhas de vacinação e disponibilidade de vacinas, e elementos da não imunização: inexperiência dos pais, recusa de aplicações simultâneas de vacinas, assistência fragmentada, ausência de diálogo, discriminação, falsas contraindicações e obrigatoriedade. A imunização centrada no cumprimento do calendário vacinal, ou em situações autoritárias, está descolada do cuidado familiar. O vínculo com as famílias precisa ser fortalecido para ampliação da adesão às medidas de proteção e promoção da saúde da criança.

Population parameters in Brazilian Thoroughbred

The information in this study has been provided by the Brazilian Association of Racehorse Breeders [Associação do Brasileira dos Criadores do Cavalo de Corrida (ABCCC)]. It can be found in the files on the CD-ROM developed by the ABCCC in 1999. A total of 5008 finishing time records related to 2545 winning horses that ran in the classical calendar on Brazilian hippodromes during 25 years (197498) were analysed. There were a total of 9949 horses on the relationship matrix. The variance components were estimated using the multiple-trait derivate-free restricted maximum likelihood (MTDFREML) program, for an animal model. Generation intervals were higher in the maternal side (10.91 years) than in the paternal one (10.41 years). The estimates for genetic permanent environmental and phenotypic variances and heritability were 0.291, 0.161, 3.486 and 0.08, respectively. The phenotypic standard deviation for time in races was 1.86729 s. Genetic time trend on Thoroughbred races in Brazil was small and could be accelerated if selection considered the trait time effectively. With respect to the animal's country of birth, the results show that there has been an intense participation of foreign animals in breeding Brazilian Thoroughbreds.

Assessing the effects of vector control on dengue transmission

The dengue virus is an arbovirus transmitted to humans through mosquito Aedes aegypti. To describe the dynamics of dengue disease within these two populations we develop a compartment model taking into account chemical controls and mechanical control applied on the mosquitoes, which are the currently available controlling mechanisms to prevent dengue disease. To mimic seasonal variations, some parameters of the model are allowed to depend on time in order to divide a calendar year in favorable and unfavorable periods regarded to the development of vector population. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fatores de Correção para Ganho de Peso Médio Diário no Período do Nascimento ao Desmame em Bovinos da Raça Nelore

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Fecundidad = Fertility

Incluye CD-ROM

Jornalismo cultural: contribuição à compreensão dessa editoria

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)