Forecasting Global Temperature Variations by Neural Networks

Global temperature variations between 1861 and 1984 are forecast usingsregularization networks, multilayer perceptrons and linearsautoregression. The regularization network, optimized by stochasticsgradient descent associated with colored noise, gives the bestsforecasts. For all the models, prediction errors noticeably increasesafter 1965. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thesclimate dynamics is characterized by low-dimensional chaos and thatsthe it may have changed at some point after 1965, which is alsosconsistent with the recent idea of climate change.s

Belief Propagation and Revision in Networks with Loops

Local belief propagation rules of the sort proposed by Pearl(1988) are guaranteed to converge to the optimal beliefs for singly connected networks. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstrated good performance of these same algorithms on networks with loops, but a theoretical understanding of this performance has yet to be achieved. Here we lay the foundation for an understanding of belief propagation in networks with loops. For networks with a single loop, we derive ananalytical relationship between the steady state beliefs in the loopy network and the true posterior probability. Using this relationship we show a category of networks for which the MAP estimate obtained by belief update and by belief revision can be proven to be optimal (although the beliefs will be incorrect). We show how nodes can use local information in the messages they receive in order to correct the steady state beliefs. Furthermore we prove that for all networks with a single loop, the MAP estimate obtained by belief revisionat convergence is guaranteed to give the globally optimal sequence of states. The result is independent of the length of the cycle and the size of the statespace. For networks with multiple loops, we introduce the concept of a "balanced network" and show simulati.

Social network measures for "nosduocentered" networks, their predictive power on performance

Our purpose in this article is to define a network structure which is based on two egos instead of the egocentered (one ego) or the complete network (n egos). We describe the characteristics and properties for this kind of network which we call “nosduocentered network”, comparing it with complete and egocentered networks. The key point for this kind of network is that relations exist between the two main egos and all alters, but relations among others are not observed. After that, we use new social network measures adapted to the nosduocentered network, some of which are based on measures for complete networks such as degree, betweenness, closeness centrality or density, while some others are tailormade for nosduocentered networks. We specify three regression models to predict research performance of PhD students based on these social network measures for different networks such as advice, collaboration, emotional support and trust. Data used are from Slovenian PhD students and their s

Synthesis, Optical properties and Applications of Water Soluble Conjugated PPPs for Biosensors

In recent years, application of fluorescent conjugated polymers to sense chemical and biological analytes has received much attention owing to its technological significance. Water soluble conjugated polymers are interesting towards the developing sensors for biomolecules. In this present contribution, we describe the syntheses and characterization of a series of water soluble conjugated polymers with sulfonic acid groups in the side chain. Such anionic conjugated polymers are designed to interact with biomolecules such as cytochrome-C. All polymers are water soluble and showed strong blue emission. Significant quenching of the fluorescence from our functionalized PPP was observed upon addition of viologen derivatives or cytochrome -C.

Multilevel multitrait-multimethod model: application to the measurement of egocentered social networks

Our goal in this paper is to assess reliability and validity of egocentered network data using multilevel analysis (Muthen, 1989, Hox, 1993) under the multitrait-multimethod approach. The confirmatory factor analysis model for multitrait-multimethod data (Werts & Linn, 1970; Andrews, 1984) is used for our analyses. In this study we reanalyse a part of data of another study (Kogovšek et al., 2002) done on a representative sample of the inhabitants of Ljubljana. The traits used in our article are the name interpreters. We consider egocentered network data as hierarchical; therefore a multilevel analysis is required. We use Muthen's partial maximum likelihood approach, called pseudobalanced solution (Muthen, 1989, 1990, 1994) which produces estimations close to maximum likelihood for large ego sample sizes (Hox & Mass, 2001). Several analyses will be done in order to compare this multilevel analysis to classic methods of analysis such as the ones made in Kogovšek et al. (2002), who analysed the data only at group (ego) level considering averages of all alters within the ego. We show that some of the results obtained by classic methods are biased and that multilevel analysis provides more detailed information that much enriches the interpretation of reliability and validity of hierarchical data. Within and between-ego reliabilities and validities and other related quality measures are defined, computed and interpreted

Networks of PhD Students and Academic Performance: A Comparison across Countries

In this article we compare regression models obtained to predict PhD students’ academic performance in the universities of Girona (Spain) and Slovenia. Explanatory variables are characteristics of PhD student’s research group understood as an egocentered social network, background and attitudinal characteristics of the PhD students and some characteristics of the supervisors. Academic performance was measured by the weighted number of publications. Two web questionnaires were designed, one for PhD students and one for their supervisors and other research group members. Most of the variables were easily comparable across universities due to the careful translation procedure and pre-tests. When direct comparison was not possible we created comparable indicators. We used a regression model in which the country was introduced as a dummy coded variable including all possible interaction effects. The optimal transformations of the main and interaction variables are discussed. Some differences between Slovenian and Girona universities emerge. Some variables like supervisor’s performance and motivation for autonomy prior to starting the PhD have the same positive effect on the PhD student’s performance in both countries. On the other hand, variables like too close supervision by the supervisor and having children have a negative influence in both countries. However, we find differences between countries when we observe the motivation for research prior to starting the PhD which increases performance in Slovenia but not in Girona. As regards network variables, frequency of supervisor advice increases performance in Slovenia and decreases it in Girona. The negative effect in Girona could be explained by the fact that additional contacts of the PhD student with his/her supervisor might indicate a higher workload in addition to or instead of a better advice about the dissertation. The number of external student’s advice relationships and social support mean contact intensity are not significant in Girona, but they have a negative effect in Slovenia. We might explain the negative effect of external advice relationships in Slovenia by saying that a lot of external advice may actually result from a lack of the more relevant internal advice

Enhanced multi-layer protection in multi-service GMPLS networks

This paper focuses on QoS routing with protection in an MPLS network over an optical layer. In this multi-layer scenario each layer deploys its own fault management methods. A partially protected optical layer is proposed and the rest of the network is protected at the MPLS layer. New protection schemes that avoid protection duplications are proposed. Moreover, this paper also introduces a new traffic classification based on the level of reliability. The failure impact is evaluated in terms of recovery time depending on the traffic class. The proposed schemes also include a novel variation of minimum interference routing and shared segment backup computation. A complete set of experiments proves that the proposed schemes are more efficient as compared to the previous ones, in terms of resources used to protect the network, failure impact and the request rejection ratio

Estimation of the probability of congestion using Monte Carlo method in OPS networks

In networks with small buffers, such as optical packet switching based networks, the convolution approach is presented as one of the most accurate method used for the connection admission control. Admission control and resource management have been addressed in other works oriented to bursty traffic and ATM. This paper focuses on heterogeneous traffic in OPS based networks. Using heterogeneous traffic and bufferless networks the enhanced convolution approach is a good solution. However, both methods (CA and ECA) present a high computational cost for high number of connections. Two new mechanisms (UMCA and ISCA) based on Monte Carlo method are proposed to overcome this drawback. Simulation results show that our proposals achieve lower computational cost compared to enhanced convolution approach with an small stochastic error in the probability estimation

W3233 -- Networks and Complexity in Social Systems (Collective Dynamics Group ISERP -- Columbia University) Course Syllabus

The Networks and Complexity in Social Systems course commences with an overview of the nascent field of complex networks, dividing it into three related but distinct strands: Statistical description of large scale networks, viewed as static objects; the dynamic evolution of networks, where now the structure of the network is understood in terms of a growth process; and dynamical processes that take place on fixed networks; that is, "networked dynamical systems". (A fourth area of potential research ties all the previous three strands together under the rubric of co-evolution of networks and dynamics, but very little research has been done in this vein and so it is omitted.) The remainder of the course treats each of the three strands in greater detail, introducing technical knowledge as required, summarizing the research papers that have introduced the principal ideas, and pointing out directions for future development. With regard to networked dynamical systems, the course treats in detail the more specific topic of information propagation in networks, in part because this topic is of great relevance to social science, and in part because it has received the most attention in the literature to date.

Un nacionalismo más allá de las fronteras: la transnacionalización del movimiento independentista catalán

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo identificar los procesos que han posibilitado la transnacionalización del movimiento independentista catalán entre 2010 y 2014. Por tal motivo, el análisis de este estudio de caso permitirá comprender con mayor profundidad las dinámicas de transnacionalización de una causa nacional, con las que dicho movimiento ha conseguido conectar lo local con lo global. Para ello, la recolección de datos cualitativos se hace imprescindible en la caracterización de este fenómeno social, a partir del uso de herramientas como la observación participante, entrevistas y el análisis documental. Esto, con el propósito de facilitar la obtención de información proveniente de fuentes primarias y secundarias, respetando la perspectiva de los actores involucrados. De tal manera, será posible evidenciar que estos procesos transnacionales se impulsan mutuamente, propiciando la proyección del debate sobre la independencia fuera de las fronteras catalanas.

Dynamic management and restoration of virtual paths in broadband networks based on distributed software agents

La gestió de xarxes és un camp molt ampli i inclou molts aspectes diferents. Aquesta tesi doctoral està centrada en la gestió dels recursos en les xarxes de banda ampla que disposin de mecanismes per fer reserves de recursos, com per exemple Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) o Multi-Protocol Label Switching (MPLS). Es poden establir xarxes lògiques utilitzant els Virtual Paths (VP) d'ATM o els Label Switched Paths (LSP) de MPLS, als que anomenem genèricament camins lògics. Els usuaris de la xarxa utilitzen doncs aquests camins lògics, que poden tenir recursos assignats, per establir les seves comunicacions. A més, els camins lògics són molt flexibles i les seves característiques es poden canviar dinàmicament. Aquest treball, se centra, en particular, en la gestió dinàmica d'aquesta xarxa lògica per tal de maximitzar-ne el rendiment i adaptar-la a les connexions ofertes. En aquest escenari, hi ha diversos mecanismes que poden afectar i modificar les característiques dels camins lògics (ample de banda, ruta, etc.). Aquests mecanismes inclouen els de balanceig de la càrrega (reassignació d'ample de banda i reencaminament) i els de restauració de fallades (ús de camins lògics de backup). Aquests dos mecanismes poden modificar la xarxa lògica i gestionar els recursos (ample de banda) dels enllaços físics. Per tant, existeix la necessitat de coordinar aquests mecanismes per evitar possibles interferències. La gestió de recursos convencional que fa ús de la xarxa lògica, recalcula periòdicament (per exemple cada hora o cada dia) tota la xarxa lògica d'una forma centralitzada. Això introdueix el problema que els reajustaments de la xarxa lògica no es realitzen en el moment en què realment hi ha problemes. D'altra banda també introdueix la necessitat de mantenir una visió centralitzada de tota la xarxa. En aquesta tesi, es proposa una arquitectura distribuïda basada en un sistema multi agent. L'objectiu principal d'aquesta arquitectura és realitzar de forma conjunta i coordinada la gestió de recursos a nivell de xarxa lògica, integrant els mecanismes de reajustament d'ample de banda amb els mecanismes de restauració preplanejada, inclosa la gestió de l'ample de banda reservada per a la restauració. Es proposa que aquesta gestió es porti a terme d'una forma contínua, no periòdica, actuant quan es detecta el problema (quan un camí lògic està congestionat, o sigui, quan està rebutjant peticions de connexió dels usuaris perquè està saturat) i d'una forma completament distribuïda, o sigui, sense mantenir una visió global de la xarxa. Així doncs, l'arquitectura proposada realitza petits rearranjaments a la xarxa lògica adaptant-la d'una forma contínua a la demanda dels usuaris. L'arquitectura proposada també té en consideració altres objectius com l'escalabilitat, la modularitat, la robustesa, la flexibilitat i la simplicitat. El sistema multi agent proposat està estructurat en dues capes d'agents: els agents de monitorització (M) i els de rendiment (P). Aquests agents estan situats en els diferents nodes de la xarxa: hi ha un agent P i diversos agents M a cada node; aquests últims subordinats als P. Per tant l'arquitectura proposada es pot veure com una jerarquia d'agents. Cada agent és responsable de monitoritzar i controlar els recursos als que està assignat. S'han realitzat diferents experiments utilitzant un simulador distribuït a nivell de connexió proposat per nosaltres mateixos. Els resultats mostren que l'arquitectura proposada és capaç de realitzar les tasques assignades de detecció de la congestió, reassignació dinàmica d'ample de banda i reencaminament d'una forma coordinada amb els mecanismes de restauració preplanejada i gestió de l'ample de banda reservat per la restauració. L'arquitectura distribuïda ofereix una escalabilitat i robustesa acceptables gràcies a la seva flexibilitat i modularitat.

Synthesis and characterization of thermally stable second-order nonlinear optical side-chain polyimides containing thiazole and benzothiazole push-pull chromophores

Push-pull nonlinear optical (NLO) chromophores containing thiazole and benzothiazole acceptors were synthesized and characterized. Using these chromophores a series of second-order NLO polyimides were Successfully prepared from 4,4'-(hexafluoroisopropylidene) diphthalic anhydride (6FDA), pyromellitic dianhydride (PMDA) and 3,3'4,4'-benzophenone tetracarboxylic dianhydride (BTDA) by a standard condensation polymerization technique. These polyimides exhibit high glass transition temperatures ranging from 160 to 188 degrees C. UV-vis spectrum of polyimide exhibited a slight blue shift and decreases in absorption due to birefringence. From the order parameters, it was found that chromophores were aligned effectively. Using in situ poling and temperature ramping technique, the optical temperatures for corona poling were obtained. It was found that the optimal temperatures of polyimides approach their glass transition temperatures. These polyimides demonstrate relatively large d(33) values range between 35.15 and 45.20 pm/V at 532 nm. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inclusion, social networks and resilience: strategies, practices and outcomes for disabled children and their families

This paper explores the strategies of service providers and the benefits reported by disabled children and their parents/carers in three Children's Fund programmes in England. Based on National Evaluation of the Children's Fund research, we discuss how different understandings of ‘inclusion’ informed the diverse strategies and approaches service providers adopted. While disabled children and families perceived the benefits of services predominantly in terms of building individual children's resilience and social networks, the paper highlights the need for holistic approaches which have a broad view of inclusion, support children's networks and tackle disabling barriers within all the spheres of children's lives.

Trends in aerosol optical depth in the Russian Arctic and their links with synoptic climatology

Temporal and spatial variability of aerosol optical depth (AOD) are examined using observations of direct solar radiation in the Eurasian Arctic for 1940-1990. AOD is estimated using empirical methods for 14 stations located between 66.2 degrees N and 80.6 degrees N, from the Kara Sea to the Chukchi Sea. While AOD exhibits a well-known springtime maximum and summertime minimum at all stations, atmospheric turbidity is higher in spring in the western (Kara-Laptev) part of the Eurasian Arctic. Between June and August, the eastern (East Siberian-Chukchi) sector experiences higher transparency than the western part. A statistically significant positive trend in AOD was observed in the Kara-Laptev sector between the late 1950s and the early 1930s predominantly in spring when pollution-derived aerosol dominates the Arctic atmosphere but not in the eastern sector. Although all stations are remote, those with positive trends are located closer to the anthropogenic sources of air pollution. By contrast, a widespread decline in AOD was observed between 1982 and 1990 in the eastern Arctic in spring but was limited to two sites in the western Arctic. These results suggest that the post-1982 decline in anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the former Soviet Union has had a limited effect on aerosol load in the Arctic. The post-1982 negative trends in AOD in summer, when marine aerosol is present in the atmosphere, were more common in the west. The relationships between AOD and atmospheric circulation are examined using a synoptic climatology approach. In spring, AOD depends primarily on the strength and direction of air flow. Thus strong westerly and northerly flows result in low AOD values in the East Siberian-Chukchi sector. By contrast, strong southerly flow associated with the passage of depressions results in high A OD in the Kara-Laptev sector and trajectory analysis points to the contribution of industrial regions of the sub-Arctic. In summer, low pressure gradient or anticyclonic conditions result in high atmospheric turbidity. The frequency of this weather type has declined significantly since the early 1980s in the Kara-Laptev sector, which partly explains the decline in summer AOD values. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Determination of the optical properties of plastic films used as cladding materials in novel energy efficient greenhouses

Greenhouse cladding materials are a major component in the design of energy efficient greenhouses. The optical properties of cladding materials determine a major part of the overall performance of a greenhouse both in terms of the energy balance of the greenhouse and on crop behavior. Various film plastic greenhouse-cladding materials were measured under laboratory conditions using a spectroradiometer equipped with an integrating sphere. Films were measured over a range of angles of incidence and the effect of increasing distance between double films was also measured. PAR transmission remained nearly constant for angles of incidence increased up to 30 degrees but fell rapidly thereafter as the angles of incidence increased up to 90 degrees. Increasing distance between double films did not significantly affect PAR transmission in all films examined. These results are discussed in relation to the design criteria for an energy efficient greenhouse.