Progress Towards to Equity Market Integration in Eastern Europe

The advent of the European Union has decreased the diversification benefits available from country based equity market indices in the region. This paper measures the increase in stock integration between the three largest new EU members (Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland who joined in May 2004) and the Euro-zone. A potentially gradual transition in correlations is accommodated in a single VAR model by embedding smooth transition conditional correlation models with fat tails, spillovers, volatility clustering, and asymmetric volatility effects. At the country market index level all three Eastern European markets show a considerable increase in correlations in 2006. At the industry level the dates and transition periods for the correlations differ, and the correlations are lower although also increasing. The results show that sectoral indices in Eastern European markets may provide larger diversification opportunities than the aggregate market. JEL classifications: C32; C51; F36; G15 Keywords: Multivariate GARCH; Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation; Stock Return Comovement; Sectoral correlations; New EU Members

Are there two species of Pygmy Shrews (Sorex)? Revisiting the question using DNA sequence data

Pygmy Shrews in North America have variously been considered to be one species (Sorex hoyi) or two species (S. hoyi and S. thompsoni). Currently, only S. hoyi is recognized. In this study, we examine mitochondrial DNA sequence data for the cytochrome b gene to evaluate the level of differentiation and phylogeographic relationships among eleven samples of Pygmy Shrews from across Canada. Pygmy Shrews from eastern Canada (i.e., Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Prince Edward Island) are distinct from Pygmy Shrews from western Canada (Alberta, Yukon) and Alaska. The average level of sequence divergence between these clades (3.3%) falls within the range of values for other recognized pairs of sister species of shrews. A molecular clock based on third position transversion substitutions suggests that these two lineages diverged between 0.44 and 1.67 million years ago. These molecular phylogenetic data. combined with a reinterpretation of previously published morphological data, are suggestive of separate species status for S. hoyi and S. thompsoni as has been previously argued by others. Further analysis of specimens from geographically intermediate areas (e.g., Manitoba. northern Ontario) is required to determine if there is secondary contact and/or introgression between these two putative species.

Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this \Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)" in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-speci c error correction models in a global system. We nd that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE interest rates which provides evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide empirical evidence regarding the e ects of the recent nancial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.

Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

Health and income: a robust comparison of Canada and the US

This paper uses sequential stochastic dominance procedures to compare the joint distribution of health and income across space and time. It is the First application of which we are aware of methods to compare multidimensional distributions of income and health using procedures that are robust to aggregation techniques. The paper's approach is more general than comparisons of health gradients and does not require the estimation of health equivalent incomes. We illustrate the approach by contrasting Canada and the US using comparable data. Canada dominates the US over the lower bidimensional welfare distribution of health and income, though not generally in terms of the uni-dimensional distribution of health or income. The paper also finds that welfare for both Canadians and Americans has not unambiguously improved during the last decade over the joint distribution of income and health, in spite of the fact that the uni-dimensional distributions of income have clearly improved during that period.

Testing for poverty dominance: an application to Canada

The paper proposes and applies statistical tests for poverty dominance that check for whether poverty comparisons can be made robustly over ranges of poverty lines and classes of poverty indices. This helps provide both normative and statistical confidence in establishing poverty rankings across distributions. The tests, which can take into account the complex sampling procedures that are typically used by statistical agencies to generate household-level surveys, are implemented using the Canadian Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) for 1996, 1999 and 2002. Although the yearly cumulative distribution functions cross at the lower tails of the distributions, the more recent years tend to dominate earlier years for a relatively wide range of poverty lines. Failing to take into account SLID's sampling variability (as is sometimes done) can inflate significantly one's confidence in ranking poverty. Taking into account SLID's complex sampling design (as has not been done before) can also decrease substantially the range of poverty lines over which a poverty ranking can be inferred.

Continuity of set-valued maps revisited in the light of tame geometry

Continuity of set-valued maps is hereby revisited: after recalling some basic concepts of variational analysis and a short description of the State-of-the-Art, we obtain as by-product two Sard type results concerning local minima of scalar and vector valued functions. Our main result though, is inscribed in the framework of tame geometry, stating that a closed-valued semialgebraic set-valued map is almost everywhere continuous (in both topological and measure-theoretic sense). The result –depending on stratification techniques– holds true in a more general setting of o-minimal (or tame) set-valued maps. Some applications are briefly discussed at the end.

Quasiconformal maps, analytic capacity, and non linear potentials

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Migration and trade: Theory with an Application to the Eastern- Western European Integration

The remarkable increase in trade flows and in migratory flows of highly educated people are two important features of globalization of the last decades. This paper extends a two-country model of inter- and intraindustry trade to a rich environment featuring technological differences, skill differences and the possibility of international labor mobility. The model is used to explain the patterns of trade and migration as countries remove barriers to trade and to labor mobility. We parameterize the model to match the features of the Western and Eastern European members of the EU and analyze first the effects of the trade liberalization which occured between 1989 and 2004, and then the gains and losses from migration which are expected to occur if legal barriers to labor mobility are substantially reduced. The lower barriers to migration would result in significant migration of skilled workers from Eastern European countries. Interestingly, this would not only benefit the migrants and most Western European workers but, via trade, it would also benefit the workers remaining in Eastern Europe. Key Words: Skilled Migration, Gains from Variety, Real Wages, Eastern-Western Europe. JEL Codes: F12, F22, J61.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.

Three-dimensional slope stability analysis of South Peak, Crowsnest Pass, Alberta, Canada

South Peak is a 7-Mm3 potentially unstable rock mass located adjacent to the 1903 Frank Slide on Turtle Mountain, Alberta. This paper presents three-dimensional numerical rock slope stability models and compares them with a previous conceptual slope instability model based on discontinuity surfaces identified using an airborne LiDAR digital elevation model (DEM). Rock mass conditions at South Peak are described using the Geological Strength Index and point load tests, whilst the mean discontinuity set orientations and characteristics are based on approximately 500 field measurements. A kinematic analysis was first conducted to evaluate probable simple discontinuity-controlled failure modes. The potential for wedge failure was further assessed by considering the orientation of wedge intersections over the airborne LiDAR DEM and through a limit equilibrium combination analysis. Block theory was used to evaluate the finiteness and removability of blocks in the rock mass. Finally, the complex interaction between discontinuity sets and the topography within South Peak was investigated through three-dimensional distinct element models using the code 3DEC. The influence of individual discontinuity sets, scale effects, friction angle and the persistence along the discontinuity surfaces on the slope stability conditions were all investigated using this code.

Terrestrial Lidar investigation of the 2004 rockslide along Petit Champlain Street, Québec City (Quebec, Canada)

Au cours des 240 dernières années, 53 mouvements de versant se sont produits le long du promontoire de Québec, causant la mort de 88 personnes principalement lors de chutes de blocs. En octobre 2004, un petit éboulement a atteint la route dans une zone proche de l'éboulement de 1889 qui a tué 35 personnes et blessé 30 autres. Une image 3D a été créée par l'utilisation d'un scanner Lidar terrestre (SLT). Les sept familles de joints identifiées sont en accord avec les mesures effectuées dans de précédentes études. L'imagerie SLT a aussi permit d'estimer les volumes des instabilités passées et d'en analyser le mécanisme : un glissement rocheux qui affecte des blocs débités en parallélépipèdes par d'autres familles de joints. De plus la zone étudiée montre qu'elle est favorable aux chutes de blocs.

Aplicación con Google Maps

El principal objetivo de este proyecto es realizar un aplicativo web que utilice API’s para que, a partir de un conjunto de rutas almacenadas en el sistema, éste sea capaz de generar nuevas rutas a partir de éstas, de modo que dicho sistema no se comporte como un mero "almacén" de rutas introducidas por los usuarios para poder ser utilizadas por los demás posteriormente, sino que podamos ser nosotros mismos los que decidamos ciertos aspectos de la ruta que deseamos que el sistema nos proporcione. Así, el aplicativo desarrollado, partiendo de un conjunto previo de rutas, será capaz de generar nuevas rutas pasando lo más cerca posible de un conjunto de puntos definidos por el usuario, pudiendo ser calculadas siguiendo diferentes parámetros de optimización tales como el menor número de rutas utilizadas en el cálculo o el menor número de intersecciones entre ellas. Estas rutas, posteriormente, pueden visualizarse en la aplicación mediante el API de Google Maps, o pueden ser descargadas para utilizarlas en nuestro dispositivo GPS portátil.