Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability

Both earthquake prediction and failure prediction of disordered brittle media are difficult and complicated problems and they might have something in common. In order to search for clues for earthquake prediction, the common features of failure in a simple nonlinear dynamical model resembling disordered brittle media are examined. It is found that the failure manifests evolution-induced catastrophe (EIC), i.e., the abrupt transition from globally stable (GS) accumulation of damage to catastrophic failure. A distinct feature is the significant uncertainty of catastrophe, called sample-specificity. Consequently, it is impossible to make a deterministic prediction macroscopically. This is similar to the question of predictability of earthquakes. However, our model shows that strong stress fluctuations may be an immediate precursor of catastrophic failure statistically. This might provide clues for earthquake forecasting.

Weak Zone Related Seismic Cycles in Progressive Failure Leading to Collapse in Brittle Crust

Until quite recently our understanding of the basic mechanical process responsible for earthquakes and faulting was not well known. It can be argued that this was partly a consequence of the complex nature of fracture in crust and in part because evidence of brittle phenomena in the natural laboratory of the earth is often obliterated or obscured by other geological processes. While it is well understood that the spatial and temporal complexity of earthquakes and the fault structures emerge from geometrical and material built-in heterogeneities, one important open question is how the shearing becomes localized into a band of intense fractures. Here the authors address these questions through a numerical approach of a tectonic plate by considering rockmass heterogeneity both in microscopic scale and in mesoscopic scale. Numerical simulations of the progressive failure leading to collapse under long-range slow driving forces in the far-field show earthquake-like rupture behavior. $En Echelon$ crack-arrays are reproduced in the numerical simulation. It is demonstrated that the underlying fracturing induced acoustic emissions (or seismic events) display self-organized criticality------from disorder to order. The seismic cycles and the geometric structures of the fracture faces, which are found greatly depending on the material heterogeneity (especially on the macroscopic scale), agree with that observed experimentally in real brittle materials. It is concluded that in order to predict a main shock, one must have extremely detailed knowledge on very minor features of the earth's crust far from the place where the earthquake originated. If correct, the model proposed here seemingly provides an explanation as to why earthquakes to date are not predicted so successfully. The reason is not that the authors do not understand earthquake mechanisms very well but that they still know little about our earth's crust.

A Variational Approach to the Burridge-Knopoff Equation

A variational principle is obtained for the Burridge-Knopoff model for earthquake faults, and this paper considers an analytic approach that does not require linearization or perturbation.

细粒尾矿堆积坝的地震稳定性分析

在分析地震对尾矿坝造成破坏特点的基础上，介绍了尾矿坝地震稳定性分析方法。以龙都尾矿库细粒尾矿堆积坝为例，分析了在当地发生七级地震情况下，尾矿坝在不同状态下的结果，为矿山进行尾矿库的安全管理提供了科学依据。

On the use of densification as a liquefaction resistance measure

The use of densification to improve the performance of shallow foundations during the centrifuge modeling of earthquake-induced liquefaction on level sand deposits is discussed. The densification of liquefiable ground provided protection against or significantly reduces liquefaction-related damage. Propagation of accelerations in the deposit exhibited considerable distinct features according to the relative density of the sand in the model. It was found that during the first couple of cycles, the dense soil amplifies the fundamental frequency component of the earthquake and preserves the higher frequency components.

Critical Sensitivity and Trans-Scale Fluctuations in Catastrophic Rupture

Rupture in the heterogeneous crust appears to be a catastrophe transition. Catastrophic rupture sensitively depends on the details of heterogeneity and stress transfer on multiple scales. These are difficult to identify and deal with. As a result, the threshold of earthquake-like rupture presents uncertainty. This may be the root of the difficulty of earthquake prediction. Based on a coupled pattern mapping model, we represent critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations associated with catastrophic rupture. Critical sensitivity means that a system may become significantly sensitive near catastrophe transition. Trans-scale fluctuations mean that the level of stress fluctuations increases strongly and the spatial scale of stress and damage fluctuations evolves from the mesoscopic heterogeneity scale to the macroscopic scale as the catastrophe regime is approached. The underlying mechanism behind critical sensitivity and trans-scale fluctuations is the coupling effect between heterogeneity and dynamical nonlinearity. Such features may provide clues for prediction of catastrophic rupture, like material failure and great earthquakes. Critical sensitivity may be the physical mechanism underlying a promising earthquake forecasting method, the load-unload response ratio (LURR).

The Newest Developments Of Load-Unload Response Ratio (Lurr)

The Load Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It is inspiring that its predictions using LURR have been improving. Since 2004 we have made a major breakthrough in intermediate-term earthquake forecasting of the strong earthquakes on the Chinese mainland using LURR and successfully predicted the Pakistan earthquake with magnitude M 7.6 on October 8, 2005. The causes for improving the prediction in terms of LURR have been discussed in the present paper.

Comparison Between Lurr And State Vector Analysis Before Strong Earthquakes In Southern California Since 1980

There are seven strong earthquakes with M >= 6.5 that occurred in southern California during the period from 1980 to 2005. In this paper, these earthquakes were studied by the LURR (Load/Unload Response Ratio) method and the State Vector method to detect if there are anomalies before them. The results show that LURR anomalies appeared before 6 earthquakes out of 7 and State Vector anomalies appeared before all 7 earthquakes. For the LURR method, the interval between maximum LURR value and the forthcoming earthquake is 1 to 19 months, and the dominant mean interval is about 10.7 months. For the State Vector method, the interval between the maximum modulus of increment State Vector and the forthcoming earthquake is from 3 to 27 months, but the dominant mean interval between the occurrence time of the maximum State Vector anomaly and the forthcoming earthquake is about 4.7 months. The results also show that the minimum valid space window scale for the LURR and the State Vector is a circle with a radius of 100 km and a square of 3 degrees 3 degrees, respectively. These results imply that the State Vector method is more effective for short-term earthquake prediction than the LURR method, however the LURR method is more effective for location prediction than the State Vector method.

The degree of predictability of earthquakes in several regions of China: statistical analysis of historical data

The stress release model, a stochastic version of the elastic-rebound theory, is applied to the historical earthquake data from three strong earthquake-prone regions of China, including North China, Southwest China, and the Taiwan seismic regions. The results show that the seismicity along a plate boundary (Taiwan) is more active than in intraplate regions (North and Southwest China). The degree of predictability or regularity of seismic events in these seismic regions, based on both the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and fitted sensitivity parameters, follows the order Taiwan, Southwest China, and North China, which is further identified by numerical simulations. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relationship between strain localization and catastrophic rupture

In order to explore a prior warning to catastrophic rupture of heterogeneous media, like rocks, the present study investigates the relationship between surface strain localization and catastrophic rupture. Instrumented observations on the evolution of surface strain field and the catastrophic rupture of a rock under uniaxial compression were carried out. It is found that the evolution of surface strain field displays two phases: at the early stage, the strain field keeps nearly uniform with weak fluctuations increasing slowly; but at the stage prior to catastrophic rupture, a certain accelerating localization develops and a localized zone emerges. Based on the measurements, an analysis was performed with local mean-field approximation. More importantly, it is found that the scale of localized zone is closely related to the catastrophic rupture strain and the rupture strain can be calculated in accord with the local-mean-field model satisfactorily. This provides a possible clue to the forecast of catastrophic rupture. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structures on sliding base subject to horizontal and vertical motions

In this paper particular investigation is directed towards the combined effects of horizontal and vertical motions of real earthquakes to structures resting on sliding base. A simplified method is presented to treat the nonlinear effects of time dependent frictional force of the sliding base as a function of the vertical reaction produced by the foundation. As an example, the El Centro 1940 earthquake record is used on a structural model to show the structural responses due to a sliding base with different frictional and stiffness characteristics. The study shows that vertical ground motion does affect both the superstructure response and the base sliding displacement. Nevertheless, the sliding base isolator is shown to be effective for the reduction of seismic response of a superstructure.