Identifying influential users of micro-blogging services : a dynamic action-based network approach

In this paper, we present a dynamic model to identify influential users of micro-blogging services. Micro-blogging services, such as Twitter, allow their users (twitterers) to publish tweets and choose to follow other users to receive tweets. Previous work on user influence on Twitter, concerns more on following link structure and the contents user published, seldom emphasizes the importance of interactions among users. We argue that, by emphasizing on user actions in micro-blogging platform, user influence could be measured more accurately. Since micro-blogging is a powerful social media and communication platform, identifying influential users according to user interactions has more practical meanings, e.g., advertisers may concern how many actions – buying, in this scenario – the influential users could initiate rather than how many advertisements they spread. By introducing the idea of PageRank algorithm, innovatively, we propose our model using action-based network which could capture the ability of influential users when they interacting with micro-blogging platform. Taking the evolving prosperity of micro-blogging into consideration, we extend our actionbaseduser influence model into a dynamic one, which could distinguish influential users in different time periods. Simulation results demonstrate that our models could support and give reasonable explanations for the scenarios that we considered.

A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an R2 goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 h test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including causal analysis and ‘what-if’ analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

A framework for model integration and holistic modelling of socio-technical systems

This paper presents a layered framework for the purposes of integrating different Socio-Technical Systems (STS) models and perspectives into a whole-of-systems model. Holistic modelling plays a critical role in the engineering of STS due to the interplay between social and technical elements within these systems and resulting emergent behaviour. The framework decomposes STS models into components, where each component is either a static object, dynamic object or behavioural object. Based on existing literature, a classification of the different elements that make up STS, whether it be a social, technical or a natural environment element, is developed; each object can in turn be classified according to the STS elements it represents. Using the proposed framework, it is possible to systematically decompose models to an extent such that points of interface can be identified and the contextual factors required in transforming the component of one model to interface into another is obtained. Using an airport inbound passenger facilitation process as a case study socio-technical system, three different models are analysed: a Business Process Modelling Notation (BPMN) model, Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) model and an Agent Based Model (ABM). It is found that the framework enables the modeller to identify non-trivial interface points such as between the spatial interactions of an ABM and the causal reasoning of a HQBN, and between the process activity representation of a BPMN and simulated behavioural performance in a HQBN. Such a framework is a necessary enabler in order to integrate different modelling approaches in understanding and managing STS.

Battery energy storage systems to improve power system frequency response

Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are becoming feasible to provide system frequency support due to recent developments in technologies and plummeting cost. Adequate response of these devices becomes critical as the penetration of the renewable energy sources increases in the power system. This paper proposes effective use of BESS to improve system frequency performance. The optimal capacity and the operation scheme of BESS for frequency regulation are obtained using two staged optimization process. Furthermore, the effectiveness of BESS for improving the system frequency response is verified using dynamic simulations.

Design, modelling and measurement of a hybrid powerplant for unmanned aerial systems

Hybrid powerplants combining internal combustion engines and electric motor prime movers have been extensively developed for land- and marine-based transport systems. The use of such powerplants in airborne applications has been historically impractical due to energy and power density constraints. Improvements in battery and electric motor technology make aircraft hybrid powerplants feasible. This paper presents a technique for determining the feasibility and mechanical effectiveness of powerplant hybridisation. In this work, a prototype aircraft hybrid powerplant was designed, constructed and tested. It is shown that an additional 35% power can be supplied from the hybrid system with an overall weight penalty of 5%, for a given unmanned aerial system. A flight dynamic model was developed using the AeroSim Blockset in MATLAB Simulink. The results have shown that climb rates can be improved by 56% and endurance increased by 13% when using the hybrid powerplant concept.

Tracking control of a class of Hamiltonian mechanical systems with disturbances

This paper presents a trajectory-tracking control strategy for a class of mechanical systems in Hamiltonian form. The class is characterised by a simplectic interconnection arising from the use of generalised coordinates and full actuation. The tracking error dynamic is modelled as a port-Hamiltonian Systems (PHS). The control action is designed to take the error dynamics into a desired closed-loop PHS characterised by a constant mass matrix and a potential energy with a minimum at the origin. A transformation of the momentum and a feedback control is exploited to obtain a constant generalised mass matrix in closed loop. The stability of the close-loop system is shown using the close-loop Hamiltonian as a Lyapunov function. The paper also considers the addition of integral action to design a robust controller that ensures tracking in spite of disturbances. As a case study, the proposed control design methodology is applied to a fully actuated robotic manipulator.

Multi-action recognition via stochastic modelling of optical flow and gradients

In this paper we propose a novel approach to multi-action recognition that performs joint segmentation and classification. This approach models each action using a Gaussian mixture using robust low-dimensional action features. Segmentation is achieved by performing classification on overlapping temporal windows, which are then merged to produce the final result. This approach is considerably less complicated than previous methods which use dynamic programming or computationally expensive hidden Markov models (HMMs). Initial experiments on a stitched version of the KTH dataset show that the proposed approach achieves an accuracy of 78.3%, outperforming a recent HMM-based approach which obtained 71.2%.

Dynamic agent composition for large-scale agent-based models

PURPOSE: This paper describes dynamic agent composition, used to support the development of flexible and extensible large-scale agent-based models (ABMs). This approach was motivated by a need to extend and modify, with ease, an ABM with an underlying networked structure as more information becomes available. Flexibility was also sought after so that simulations are set up with ease, without the need to program. METHODS: The dynamic agent composition approach consists in having agents, whose implementation has been broken into atomic units, come together at runtime to form the complex system representation on which simulations are run. These components capture information at a fine level of detail and provide a vast range of combinations and options for a modeller to create ABMs. RESULTS: A description of the dynamic agent composition is given in this paper, as well as details about its implementation within MODAM (MODular Agent-based Model), a software framework which is applied to the planning of the electricity distribution network. Illustrations of the implementation of the dynamic agent composition are consequently given for that domain throughout the paper. It is however expected that this approach will be beneficial to other problem domains, especially those with a networked structure, such as water or gas networks. CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic agent composition has many advantages over the way agent-based models are traditionally built for the users, the developers, as well as for agent-based modelling as a scientific approach. Developers can extend the model without the need to access or modify previously written code; they can develop groups of entities independently and add them to those already defined to extend the model. Users can mix-and-match already implemented components to form large-scales ABMs, allowing them to quickly setup simulations and easily compare scenarios without the need to program. The dynamic agent composition provides a natural simulation space over which ABMs of networked structures are represented, facilitating their implementation; and verification and validation of models is facilitated by quickly setting up alternative simulations.

Watermarking capacity control for dynamic payload embedding

Despite significant improvements in capacity-distortion performance, a computationally efficient capacity control is still lacking in the recent watermarking schemes. In this paper, we propose an efficient capacity control framework to substantiate the notion of watermarking capacity control to be the process of maintaining “acceptable” distortion and running time, while attaining the required capacity. The necessary analysis and experimental results on the capacity control are reported to address practical aspects of the watermarking capacity problem, in dynamic (size) payload embedding.

Stochastic analysis of a radial-inflow turbine in the presence of parametric uncertainties

This paper presents an uncertainty quantification study of the performance analysis of the high pressure ratio single stage radial-inflow turbine used in the Sundstrand Power Systems T-100 Multi-purpose Small Power Unit. A deterministic 3D volume-averaged Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solver is coupled with a non-statistical generalized Polynomial Chaos (gPC) representation based on a pseudo-spectral projection method. One of the advantages of this approach is that it does not require any modification of the CFD code for the propagation of random disturbances in the aerodynamic and geometric fields. The stochastic results highlight the importance of the blade thickness and trailing edge tip radius on the total-to-static efficiency of the turbine compared to the angular velocity and trailing edge tip length. From a theoretical point of view, the use of the gPC representation on an arbitrary grid also allows the investigation of the sensitivity of the blade thickness profiles on the turbine efficiency. The gPC approach is also applied to coupled random parameters. The results show that the most influential coupled random variables are trailing edge tip radius coupled with the angular velocity.

Stochastic linear multistep methods for the simulation of chemical kinetics

In this paper, we introduce the Stochastic Adams-Bashforth (SAB) and Stochastic Adams-Moulton (SAM) methods as an extension of the tau-leaping framework to past information. Using the theta-trapezoidal tau-leap method of weak order two as a starting procedure, we show that the k-step SAB method with k >= 3 is order three in the mean and correlation, while a predictor-corrector implementation of the SAM method is weak order three in the mean but only order one in the correlation. These convergence results have been derived analytically for linear problems and successfully tested numerically for both linear and non-linear systems. A series of additional examples have been implemented in order to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach.

Systems modelling of the socio-technical aspects of residential electricity use and network peak demand

Provision of network infrastructure to meet rising network peak demand is increasing the cost of electricity. Addressing this demand is a major imperative for Australian electricity agencies. The network peak demand model reported in this paper provides a quantified decision support tool and a means of understanding the key influences and impacts on network peak demand. An investigation of the system factors impacting residential consumers’ peak demand for electricity was undertaken in Queensland, Australia. Technical factors, such as the customers’ location, housing construction and appliances, were combined with social factors, such as household demographics, culture, trust and knowledge, and Change Management Options (CMOs) such as tariffs, price,managed supply, etc., in a conceptual ‘map’ of the system. A Bayesian network was used to quantify the model and provide insights into the major influential factors and their interactions. The model was also used to examine the reduction in network peak demand with different market-based and government interventions in various customer locations of interest and investigate the relative importance of instituting programs that build trust and knowledge through well designed customer-industry engagement activities. The Bayesian network was implemented via a spreadsheet with a tick box interface. The model combined available data from industry-specific and public sources with relevant expert opinion. The results revealed that the most effective intervention strategies involve combining particular CMOs with associated education and engagement activities. The model demonstrated the importance of designing interventions that take into account the interactions of the various elements of the socio-technical system. The options that provided the greatest impact on peak demand were Off-Peak Tariffs and Managed Supply and increases in the price of electricity. The impact in peak demand reduction differed for each of the locations and highlighted that household numbers, demographics as well as the different climates were significant factors. It presented possible network peak demand reductions which would delay any upgrade of networks, resulting in savings for Queensland utilities and ultimately for households. The use of this systems approach using Bayesian networks to assist the management of peak demand in different modelled locations in Queensland provided insights about the most important elements in the system and the intervention strategies that could be tailored to the targeted customer segments.