Multi-agent Simulation of Bilateral Contracting in Competitive Electricity Markets

Traditional vertically integrated power utilities around the world have evolved from monopoly structures to open markets that promote competition among suppliers and provide consumers with a choice of services. Market forces drive the price of electricity and reduce the net cost through increased competition. Electricity can be traded in both organized markets or using forward bilateral contracts. This article focuses on bilateral contracts and describes some important features of an agent-based system for bilateral trading in competitive markets. Special attention is devoted to the negotiation process, demand response in bilateral contracting, and risk management. The article also presents a case study on forward bilateral contracting: a retailer agent and a customer agent negotiate a 24h-rate tariff.

Realistic Multi-Agent Simulation of Competitive Electricity Markets

The dynamism and ongoing changes that the electricity markets sector is constantly suffering, enhanced by the huge increase in competitiveness, create the need of using simulation platforms to support operators, regulators, and the involved players in understanding and dealing with this complex environment. This paper presents an enhanced electricity market simulator, based on multi-agent technology, which provides an advanced simulation framework for the study of real electricity markets operation, and the interactions between the involved players. MASCEM (Multi-Agent Simulator of Competitive Electricity Markets) uses real data for the creation of realistic simulation scenarios, which allow the study of the impacts and implications that electricity markets transformations bring to different countries. Also, the development of an upper-ontology to support the communication between participating agents, provides the means for the integration of this simulator with other frameworks, such as MAN-REM (Multi-Agent Negotiation and Risk Management in Electricity Markets). A case study using the enhanced simulation platform that results from the integration of several systems and different tools is presented, with a scenario based on real data, simulating the MIBEL electricity market environment, and comparing the simulation performance with the real electricity market results.

Data Mining Approach to support the Generation of Realistic Scenarios for Multi-Agent simulation of Electricity Markets

This paper presents the Realistic Scenarios Generator (RealScen), a tool that processes data from real electricity markets to generate realistic scenarios that enable the modeling of electricity market players’ characteristics and strategic behavior. The proposed tool provides significant advantages to the decision making process in an electricity market environment, especially when coupled with a multi-agent electricity markets simulator. The generation of realistic scenarios is performed using mechanisms for intelligent data analysis, which are based on artificial intelligence and data mining algorithms. These techniques allow the study of realistic scenarios, adapted to the existing markets, and improve the representation of market entities as software agents, enabling a detailed modeling of their profiles and strategies. This work contributes significantly to the understanding of the interactions between the entities acting in electricity markets by increasing the capability and realism of market simulations.

Artificial Intelligence in geospatial analysis: applications of self-organizing maps in the context of geographic information science.

A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Information Systems.

INFLUENCE OF MICROBIOTA IN EXPERIMENTAL CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS IN SWISS MICE

Infection of Swiss/NIH mice with Leishmania major was compared with infection in isogenic resistant C57BL/6 and susceptible BALB/c mice. Swiss/NIH mice showed self-controlled lesions in the injected foot pad. The production of high levels of interferon-g (IFN-g) and low levels of interleukin-4 (IL-4) by cells from these animals suggests that they mount a Th1-type immune response. The importance of the indigenous microbiota on the development of murine leishmaniasis was investigated by infecting germfree Swiss/NIH in the hind footpad with L. major and conventionalizing after 3 weeks of infection. Lesions from conventionalized Swiss/NIH mice were significantly larger than conventional mice. Histopathological analysis of lesions from conventionalized animals showed abscesses of variable shapes and sizes and high numbers of parasitized macrophages. In the lesions from conventional mice, besides the absence of abscess formation, parasites were rarely observed. On the other hand, cells from conventional and conventionalized mice produced similar Th1-type response characterized by high levels of IFN-g and low levels of IL-4. In this study, we demonstrated that Swiss/NIH mice are resistant to L. major infection and that the absence of the normal microbiota at the beginning of infection significantly influenced the lesion size and the inflammatory response at the site of infection.

Planeamento de redes de distribuição de energia

O planeamento de redes de distribuição tem como objetivo assegurar a existência de capacidade nas redes para a fornecimento de energia elétrica com bons níveis de qualidade de serviço tendo em conta os fatores económicos associados. No âmbito do trabalho apresentado na presente dissertação, foi elaborado um modelo de planeamento que determina a configuração de rede resultante da minimização de custos associados a: 1) perdas por efeito de joule; 2) investimento em novos componentes; 3) energia não entregue. A incerteza associada ao valor do consumo de cada carga é modelada através de lógica difusa. O problema de otimização definido é resolvido pelo método de decomposição de benders que contempla dois trânsitos de potências ótimos (modelo DC e modelo AC) no problema mestre e escravo respectivamente para validação de restrições. Foram também definidos critérios de paragem do método de decomposição de benders. O modelo proposto classifica-se como programação não linear inteira mista e foi implementado na ferramenta de otimização General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). O modelo desenvolvido tem em conta todos componentes das redes para a otimização do planeamento, conforme podemos analisar nos casos de estudo implementados. Cada caso de estudo é definido pela variação da importância que cada uma das variáveis do problema toma, tendo em vista cobrir de alguma todos os cenários de operação expetáveis. Através destes casos de estudo verifica-se as várias configurações que a rede pode tomar, tendo em conta as importâncias atribuídas a cada uma das variáveis, bem como os respetivos custos associados a cada solução. Este trabalho oferece um considerável contributo no âmbito do planeamento de redes de distribuição, pois comporta diferentes variáveis para a execução do mesmo. É também um modelo bastante robusto não perdendo o ‘norte’ no encontro de solução para redes de grande dimensão, com maior número de componentes.

Avaliação da qualidade do ar e classificação energética de uma piscina coberta e propostas de melhoria

A presente dissertação tem dois objetivos, o primeiro é a realização de uma auditoria energética e avaliação da qualidade do ar às instalações de uma Piscina Municipal, permitindo a sua classificação energética, e o segundo é o estudo de propostas de melhoria que contribuam para uma melhor eficiência energética do edifício. Na análise à qualidade do ar interior os parâmetros avaliados encontravam-se todos dentro dos limites estabelecidos por lei, com exceção dos valores de COVs que em dois pontos de medição (ambos na nave) ultrapassaram os limites estabelecidos por lei. A auditoria ao edifício permitiu verificar que o caudal mínimo de água nova nas piscinas imposto por lei é cumprido pela instalação. No que diz respeito ao caudal de ar novo introduzido, este apenas é respeitado quando a unidade de tratamento de ar está a debitar 100% da sua capacidade. Quando a unidade opera a 50% da sua capacidade apresenta um défice de 5% do valor mínimo estabelecido. Relativamente às perdas energéticas associadas aos tanques de natação, estas apresentam um valor de 95,89 kW, em que 59,09 kW dizem respeito às perdas por evaporação. Foi também possível concluir que as perdas por evaporação representam cerca de 39% da energia calorifica produzida nas caldeiras. O edifício apresenta um consumo anual de eletricidade de 166 482 kWh em que 69% deste valor é provocado pelas unidades de tratamento de ar e a iluminação apresenta apenas um peso de 3%. Em relação ao gás natural consumido pelas caldeiras o seu valor anual é de 1 317 240 kWh. A simulação dinâmica do edifício permitiu concluir que este apresenta um IEE de 1 269,9 kWh/m2.ano. O rácio de classe energética (RIEE) é de 1,24 o que significa que o edifício pertence à classe energética C. As medidas estudadas para a melhoria da eficiência energética, nomeadamente integração energética com uma central de ciclo combinado, aplicação de cobertura isotérmica nas piscinas e substituição do telhado na zona da nave, mostraram-se viáveis. O estudo da possibilidade da realização de uma integração energética permitiu concluir que a poupança anual é de 9 374 € e o investimento é recuperado em menos de 1,5 anos. Relativamente à aplicação de cobertura isotérmica o investimento é de 14 000 € e é recuperado em 2 anos. A substituição do telhado na zona da nave tem um investimento de 20 500 € e a recuperação realiza-se num período de 3,5 anos.

Electricity markets modeling considering complex contracts and aggregators

All over the world, the liberalization of electricity markets, which follows different paradigms, has created new challenges for those involved in this sector. In order to respond to these challenges, electric power systems suffered a significant restructuring in its mode of operation and planning. This restructuring resulted in a considerable increase of the electric sector competitiveness. Particularly, the Ancillary Services (AS) market has been target of constant renovations in its operation mode as it is a targeted market for the trading of services, which have as main objective to ensure the operation of electric power systems with appropriate levels of stability, safety, quality, equity and competitiveness. In this way, with the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources including distributed generation, demand response, storage units and electric vehicles, it is essential to develop new smarter and hierarchical methods of operation of electric power systems. As these resources are mostly connected to the distribution network, it is important to consider the introduction of this kind of resources in AS delivery in order to achieve greater reliability and cost efficiency of electrical power systems operation. The main contribution of this work is the design and development of mechanisms and methodologies of AS market and for energy and AS joint market, considering different management entities of transmission and distribution networks. Several models developed in this work consider the most common AS in the liberalized market environment: Regulation Down; Regulation Up; Spinning Reserve and Non-Spinning Reserve. The presented models consider different rules and ways of operation, such as the division of market by network areas, which allows the congestion management of interconnections between areas; or the ancillary service cascading process, which allows the replacement of AS of superior quality by lower quality of AS, ensuring a better economic performance of the market. A major contribution of this work is the development an innovative methodology of market clearing process to be used in the energy and AS joint market, able to ensure viable and feasible solutions in markets, where there are technical constraints in the transmission network involving its division into areas or regions. The proposed method is based on the determination of Bialek topological factors and considers the contribution of the dispatch for all services of increase of generation (energy, Regulation Up, Spinning and Non-Spinning reserves) in network congestion. The use of Bialek factors in each iteration of the proposed methodology allows limiting the bids in the market while ensuring that the solution is feasible in any context of system operation. Another important contribution of this work is the model of the contribution of distributed energy resources in the ancillary services. In this way, a Virtual Power Player (VPP) is considered in order to aggregate, manage and interact with distributed energy resources. The VPP manages all the agents aggregated, being able to supply AS to the system operator, with the main purpose of participation in electricity market. In order to ensure their participation in the AS, the VPP should have a set of contracts with the agents that include a set of diversified and adapted rules to each kind of distributed resource. All methodologies developed and implemented in this work have been integrated into the MASCEM simulator, which is a simulator based on a multi-agent system that allows to study complex operation of electricity markets. In this way, the developed methodologies allow the simulator to cover more operation contexts of the present and future of the electricity market. In this way, this dissertation offers a huge contribution to the AS market simulation, based on models and mechanisms currently used in several real markets, as well as the introduction of innovative methodologies of market clearing process on the energy and AS joint market. This dissertation presents five case studies; each one consists of multiple scenarios. The first case study illustrates the application of AS market simulation considering several bids of market players. The energy and ancillary services joint market simulation is exposed in the second case study. In the third case study it is developed a comparison between the simulation of the joint market methodology, in which the player bids to the ancillary services is considered by network areas and a reference methodology. The fourth case study presents the simulation of joint market methodology based on Bialek topological distribution factors applied to transmission network with 7 buses managed by a TSO. The last case study presents a joint market model simulation which considers the aggregation of small players to a VPP, as well as complex contracts related to these entities. The case study comprises a distribution network with 33 buses managed by VPP, which comprises several kinds of distributed resources, such as photovoltaic, CHP, fuel cells, wind turbines, biomass, small hydro, municipal solid waste, demand response, and storage units.

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Novel Prostate Specific Antigen plastic antibody designed withcharged binding sites for an improved protein binding and itsapplication in a biosensor of potentiometric transduction

This work shows that the synthesis of protein plastic antibodies tailored with selected charged monomersaround the binding site enhances protein binding. These charged receptor sites are placed over a neutralpolymeric matrix, thus inducing a suitable orientation the protein reception to its site. This is confirmed bypreparing control materials with neutral monomers and also with non-imprinted template. This concepthas been applied here to Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA), the protein of choice for screening prostate can-cer throughout the population, with serum levels >10 ng/mL pointing out a high probability of associatedcancer.Protein Imprinted Materials with charged binding sites (C/PIM) have been produced by surfaceimprinting over graphene layers to which the protein was first covalently attached. Vinylben-zyl(trimethylammonium chloride) and vinyl benzoate were introduced as charged monomers labellingthe binding site and were allowed to self-organize around the protein. The subsequent polymerizationwas made by radical polymerization of vinylbenzene. Neutral PIM (N/PIM) prepared without orientedcharges and non imprinted materials (NIM) obtained without template were used as controls.These materials were used to develop simple and inexpensive potentiometric sensor for PSA. Theywere included as ionophores in plasticized PVC membranes, and tested over electrodes of solid or liq-uid conductive contacts, made of conductive carbon over a syringe or of inner reference solution overmicropipette tips. The electrodes with charged monomers showed a more stable and sensitive response,with an average slope of -44.2 mV/decade and a detection limit of 5.8 × 10−11mol/L (2 ng/mL). The cor-responding non-imprinted sensors showed lower sensitivity, with average slopes of -24.8 mV/decade.The best sensors were successfully applied to the analysis of serum, with recoveries ranging from 96.9to 106.1% and relative errors of 6.8%.

Novel biosensing device for point-of-care applications with plastic antibodies grown on Au-Screen Printed Electrodes

A gold screen printed electrode (Au-SPE) was modified by merging Molecular Imprinting and Self-Assembly Monolayer techniques for fast screening cardiac biomarkers in point-of-care (POC). For this purpose, Myoglobin (Myo) was selected as target analyte and its plastic antibody imprinted over a glutaraldehyde (Glu)/cysteamine (Cys) layer on the gold-surface. The imprinting effect was produced by growing a reticulated polymer of acrylamide (AAM) and N,N′-methylenebisacrylamide (NNMBA) around the Myo template, covalently attached to the biosensing surface. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV) studies were carried out in all chemical modification steps to confirm the surface changes in the Au-SPE. The analytical features of the resulting biosensor were studied by different electrochemical techniques, including EIS, square wave voltammetry (SWV) and potentiometry. The limits of detection ranged from 0.13 to 8 μg/mL. Only potentiometry assays showed limits of detection including the cut-off Myo levels. Quantitative information was also produced for Myo concentrations ≥0.2 μg/mL. The linear response of the biosensing device showed an anionic slope of ~70 mV per decade molar concentration up to 0.3 μg/mL. The interference of coexisting species was tested and good selectivity was observed. The biosensor was successfully applied to biological fluids.

Analysis of self-interference within DAG tasks

6th Real-Time Scheduling Open Problems Seminar (RTSOPS 2015), Lund, Sweden.

Double power laws, fractals and self-similarity

Power law (PL) distributions have been largely reported in the modeling of distinct real phenomena and have been associated with fractal structures and self-similar systems. In this paper, we analyze real data that follows a PL and a double PL behavior and verify the relation between the PL coefficient and the capacity dimension of known fractals. It is to be proved a method that translates PLs coefficients into capacity dimension of fractals of any real data.