789 resultados para risk and resilience
Resumo:
Since 2003, Mainland China has been promoting the public–private partnership (PPP) procurement model in the waste-to-energy incineration sector to reduce the waste burying rate and improve environmental quality. Five critical risk factors (CRFs) that affect the construction and operation of waste-to-energy incineration projects have been identified from real-life risk events of 14 PPP waste-to-energy incineration plants through content analysis. These risk factors are insufficient waste supply, disposal of non-licensed waste, environmental risk, payment risk, and lack of supporting infrastructure. A recently completed PPP waste-to-energy incineration plant, the Shanghai Tianma project, was investigated to learn from the effective management of CRFs. First-hand data about the Shanghai Tianma project was collected, with a focus on project negotiation and concession agreement. Lessons learned about risk management were acquired. This paper presents a detailed study of the contractual structure, risk sharing scheme, risk response measures to CRFs, and project transfer of a PPP project. The study results will provide governments with management implications to prepare equitable concession agreements and benefit private investors by effectively mitigating and managing risks in future PPP waste-to-energy incineration projects.
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Temporal and environmental variation in vocal activity can provide information on avian behaviour and call function not available to short-term experimental studies. Intersexual differences in this variation can provide insight into selection effects. Yet factors influencing vocal behaviour have not been assessed in many birds, even those monitored by acoustic methods. This applies to the New Zealand kiwi (Apterygidae), for which call censuses are used extensively in conservation monitoring, yet which have poorly understood acoustic ecology. We investigated little spotted kiwi Apteryx owenii vocal behaviour over 3 yr, measuring influences on vocal activity in both sexes from time of night, season, weather conditions and lunar cycle. We tested hypotheses that call rate variation reflects call function, foraging efficiency, historic predation risk and variability in sound transmission, and that there are inter-sexual differences in call function. Significant seasonal variation showed that vocalisations were important in kiwi reproduction, and inter-sexual synchronisation of call rates indicated that contact, pair-bonding or resource defence were key functions. All weather variables significantly affected call rates, with elevated calling during increased humidity and ground moisture indicating a relation between vocal activity and foraging conditions. A significant decrease in calling activity on cloudy nights, combined with no moonlight effect, suggests an impact of light pollution in this species. These influences on vocal activity provide insight into kiwi call function, have direct consequences for conservation monitoring of kiwi, and have wider implications in understanding vocal behaviour in a range of nocturnal birds
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Quantitative ultrasound of the heel captures heel bone properties that independently predict fracture risk and, with bone mineral density (BMD) assessed by X-ray (DXA), may be convenient alternatives for evaluating osteoporosis and fracture risk. We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) studies to assess the genetic determinants of heel broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA; n 5 14 260), velocity of sound (VOS; n 5 15 514) and BMD (n 5 4566) in 13 discovery cohorts. Independent replication involved seven cohorts with GWA data (in silico n 5 11 452) and new genotyping in 15 cohorts (de novo n 5 24 902). In combined random effects, meta-analysis of the discovery and replication cohorts, nine single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) had genome-wide significant (P < 5 3 108) associations with heel bone properties. Alongside SNPs within or near previously identified osteoporosis susceptibility genes including ESR1 (6q25.1: rs4869739, rs3020331, rs2982552), SPTBN1 (2p16.2: rs11898505), RSPO3 (6q22.33: rs7741021), WNT16 (7q31.31: rs2908007), DKK1 (10q21.1: rs7902708) and GPATCH1 (19q13.11: rs10416265), we identified a new locus on chromosome 11q14.2 (rs597319 close to TMEM135, a gene recently linked to osteoblastogenesis and longevity) significantly associated with both BUA and VOS (P < 8.23 3 1014). In meta-analyses involving 25 cohorts with up to 14 985 fracture cases, six of 10 SNPs associated with heel bone properties at P < 5 3 106 also had the expected direction of association with any fracture (P < 0.05), including threeSNPswithP < 0.005: 6q22.33 (rs7741021), 7q31.31 (rs2908007) and 10q21.1 (rs7902708). In conclusion, thisGWAstudy reveals the effect of several genescommon to central DXA-derivedBMDand heel ultrasound/DXAmeasures and points to anewgenetic locus with potential implications for better understanding of osteoporosis pathophysiology.
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Background Health risk behavior among young people is a public health problem in Vietnam. In addition, road traffic injuries are the leading cause of death for those aged 15–29 years. The consequences can be devastating for adolescents and their families, and can create a significant economic burden on society. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify protective and risk factors that may influence three health risk behaviors among school children: suicidal thinking (ST), drinking alcohol (DA), and underage motorbike driving (MD). Methods A cross-sectional survey of 972 adolescents (aged 12–15 years) was conducted in two secondary schools in Hanoi, Vietnam. The schools were purposely selected, one each from the inner city and a suburban area, from which classes (grade 6 to 8) were randomly selected. All students attending classes on survey days took part in the survey. The anonymous, self-completed questionnaire included measures of risk behavior, school connectedness, parental bonding, and other factors. Multivariable regression models were used to examine associations between the independent variables and the three health risk behaviors controlling for confounding factors. Results Young people in the inner city school reported a higher prevalence of all three risk behaviors than those in the suburban area (ST: 16.1% [95% confidence interval, or CI, 12.9–19.3] versus 4.6% [95% CI 2.7–6.5], p<0.001; DA: 20.3% [95% CI 16.8–23.8] versus 8.3% [95% CI 5.8–10.8], p<0.001, and MD: 10.1% [95% CI 7.4–12.8] versus 5.7% [95% CI 3.6–7.8], p<0.01). School connectedness and mother and father care appeared to be significant protective factors. For males, bullying in school was associated with suicidal thoughts, whereas for both males and females, school connectedness may be protective against suicidal ideation. Conclusion This study supports findings from other nations regarding suicidal thoughts and alcohol use, and appears to be one of the first to examine risk and protective factors forMD. Health promotion within schools should be introduced to improve students’ feelings of connectedness in combination with communication and education campaigns focusing on parental care and engaging teachers for the promotion of safer, supportive school environments.
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Travel speed is one of the most critical parameters for road safety; the evidence suggests that increased vehicle speed is associated with higher crash risk and injury severity. Both naturalistic and simulator studies have reported that drivers distracted by a mobile phone select a lower driving speed. Speed decrements have been argued to be a risk compensatory behaviour of distracted drivers. Nonetheless, the extent and circumstances of the speed change among distracted drivers are still not known very well. As such, the primary objective of this study was to investigate patterns of speed variation in relation to contextual factors and distraction. Using the CARRS-Q high-fidelity Advanced Driving Simulator, the speed selection behaviour of 32 drivers aged 18-26 years was examined in two phone conditions: baseline (no phone conversation) and handheld phone operation. The simulator driving route contained five different types of road traffic complexities, including one road section with a horizontal S curve, one horizontal S curve with adjacent traffic, one straight segment of suburban road without traffic, one straight segment of suburban road with traffic interactions, and one road segment in a city environment. Speed deviations from the posted speed limit were analysed using Ward’s Hierarchical Clustering method to identify the effects of road traffic environment and cognitive distraction. The speed deviations along curved road sections formed two different clusters for the two phone conditions, implying that distracted drivers adopt a different strategy for selecting driving speed in a complex driving situation. In particular, distracted drivers selected a lower speed while driving along a horizontal curve. The speed deviation along the city road segment and other straight road segments grouped into a different cluster, and the deviations were not significantly different across phone conditions, suggesting a negligible effect of distraction on speed selection along these road sections. Future research should focus on developing a risk compensation model to explain the relationship between road traffic complexity and distraction.
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The nutritional profiles of 37 children (aged 0.5-14.0 years) with chronic liver disease at the time of acceptance for orthotopic liver transplantation (OLTP) have been evaluated using clinical, biochemical and body composition methods. Nutritional progress while waiting for a donor has been related to outcome, whether transplanted or not. At the time of acceptance, most children were underweight (mean standard deviation (s.d.) weight = -1.4 ± 0.2) and stunted (mean s.d. height = - 2.2 ± 0.4), had low serum albumin (27/35) and had reduced body fat and depleted body cell mass (measured by total body potassium - mean % expected for age = 58 ± 5%, n = 15). Mean ad libitum nutrient intake was 63 ± 5% of recommended daily intake (RDI). Those who died while waiting (n = 8) had significantly lower mean initial s.d. weight compared with those transplanted. The overall actuarial 1 year survival of those who were transplanted (mean waiting time = 75 days) was 81% but those who were initially well nourished (s.d. weight >-1.0) had an actuarial 1 year survival of 100%. There were no significant differences in actuarial survival in relationship to age, type of transplant (whole liver or segmental), liver biochemistry or the presence or absence of ascites. Of the total group accepted for OLTP, whether transplanted or not, the overall 1 year survival for those who were relatively well nourished was 88% and for those undernourished (initial s.d. weight <-1.0) was 38% (P<0.003). Declining nutritional status during the waiting period also adversely affected outcome. We conclude that malnutrition and/or declining nutritional status is a major factor adversely affecting survival in children awaiting OLTP. In transplant units where waiting time is greater than 40 days, earlier referral, prioritization of cases and the use of adult donor livers may reduce this risk and efforts to maintain or improve nutritional status deserve further study.
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Genome-wide association studies have identified more than 80 risk variants for prostate cancer, mainly in European or Asian populations. The generalizability of these variants in other racial/ethnic populations needs to be understood before the loci can be used widely in risk modeling. In our study, we examined 82 previously reported risk variants in 4,853 prostate cancer cases and 4,678 controls of African ancestry. We performed association testing for each variant using logistic regression adjusted for age, study and global ancestry. Of the 82 known risk variants, 68 (83%) had effects that were directionally consistent in their association with prostate cancer risk and 30 (37%) were significantly associated with risk at p < 0.05, with the most statistically significant variants being rs116041037 (p = 3.7 × 10(-26) ) and rs6983561 (p = 1.1 × 10(-16) ) at 8q24, as well as rs7210100 (p = 5.4 × 10(-8) ) at 17q21. By exploring each locus in search of better markers, the number of variants that captured risk in men of African ancestry (p < 0.05) increased from 30 (37%) to 44 (54%). An aggregate score comprised of these 44 markers was strongly associated with prostate cancer risk [per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.12, p = 7.3 × 10(-98) ]. In summary, the consistent directions of effects for the vast majority of variants in men of African ancestry indicate common functional alleles that are shared across populations. Further exploration of these susceptibility loci is needed to identify the underlying biologically relevant variants to improve prostate cancer risk modeling in populations of African ancestry.
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Consumerism is arguably one of the strongest forces affecting society today. Its affect on young people and their ability and desire to create, design, and innovate is cause for concern. It has been suggested that design, when viewed as “a fundamental category of meaning making” (Cope and Kalantzis, 2010, p.597), can be conceived as a “foundational paradigm for representation and action” (Cope and Kalantzis, 2011, p.49). As a component of a general education, it has the capacity to give future generations a framework for collaborative creative and critical thinking required for business innovation, while developing resourceful optimism, motivation, morality and the citizenship needed to develop awareness and resilience to this ideology (Design Commission, 2011; Design Council, 2011). However, to date clearly defined frameworks and empirical data surrounding design education integration in secondary school contexts and its impact on innovation and active citizenship in Australia, is extremely limited. This paper will explore the value of a hands-on and collaborative design-based education model in an independent secondary school environment in Australia and its effect on students’ self- perception, core beliefs, empowered participation and ability to innovate towards sustainability. Following is an overview of relevant literature, the research question, and potential significance and contribution of this research.
Resumo:
The concept of the “wounded healer” has been used to explain why those with adverse childhood histories often enter helping professions such as social work and human services (SWHS). Psychotherapist Carl Jung (1875–1961) believed wounded healers developed insight and resilience from their own experiences, enabling transformative interventions to occur with clients. Concerns exist that students with adverse childhood histories in SWHS may display unresolved emotional issues. This journal article explores how Jung’s interpretation of the wounded healer can be critically applied to understanding the learning needs of SWHS students with histories of abuse, neglect or other childhood adversity. The relevance of the wounded healer to SWHS education is explored in three key areas: - 1) the increased possibility of the occurrence of countertransference; - 2) the potential for vicarious traumatisation and burnout, and; - 3) personal and professional resilience displayed by SWHS students with a history of childhood adversity. The wounded healer metaphor allows for a more nuanced understanding of SWHS students with these histories. It also provides insight into the pedagogical considerations associated with teaching this student cohort.
Resumo:
Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) are established globally as an important mode of procurement and the features of PPP, not least of which the transfer of risk, appeal to governments and particularly in the current economic climate. There are many other advantages of PPP that are claimed as outweighing the costs of PPP and affording Value for Money (VfM) relative to traditionally financed projects or non-PPP. That said, it is the case that we lack comparative whole-life empirical studies of VfM in PPP and non-PPP. Whilst we await this kind of study, the pace and trajectory of PPP seem set to continue and so in the meantime, the virtues of seeking to improve PPP appear incontrovertible. The decision about which projects, or parts of projects, to offer to the market as a PPP and the decision concerning the allocation or sharing risks as part of engagement of the PPP consortium are among the most fundamental decisions that determine whether PPP deliver VfM. The focus in the paper is on latter decision concerning governments’ attitudes towards risk and more specifically, the effect of this decision on the nature of the emergent PPP consortium, or PPP model, including its economic behavior and outcomes. This paper presents an exploration into the extent to which the seemingly incompatible alternatives of risk allocation and risk sharing, represented by the orthodox/conventional PPP model and the heterodox/alliance PPP model respectively, can be reconciled along with suggestions for new research directions to inform this reconciliation. In so doing, an important step is taken towards charting a path by which governments can harness the relative strengths of both kinds of PPP model.
Resumo:
The incorporation of sown pastures as short-term rotations into the cropping systems of northern Australia has been slow. The inherent chemical fertility and physical stability of the predominant vertisol soils across the region enabled farmers to grow crops for decades without nitrogen fertiliser, and precluded the evolution of a crop–pasture rotation culture. However, as less fertile and less physically stable soils were cropped for extended periods, farmers began to use contemporary farming and sown pasture technologies to rebuild and maintain their soils. This has typically involved sowing long-term grass and grass–legume pastures on the more marginal cropping soils of the region. In partnership with the catchment management authority, the Queensland Murray–Darling Committee (QMDC) and Landcare, a pasture extension process using the LeyGrain™ package was implemented in 2006 within two Grain & Graze projects in the Maranoa-Balonne and Border Rivers catchments in southern inland Queensland. The specific objectives were to increase the area sown to high quality pasture and to gain production and environmental benefits (particularly groundcover) through improving the skills of producers in pasture species selection, their understanding and management of risk during pasture establishment, and in managing pastures and the feed base better. The catalyst for increasing pasture sowings was a QMDC subsidy scheme for increasing groundcover on old cropping land. In recognising a need to enhance pasture knowledge and skills to implement this scheme, the QMDC and Landcare producer groups sought the involvement of, and set specific targets for, the LeyGrain workshop process. This is a highly interactive action learning process that built on the existing knowledge and skills of the producers. Thirty-four workshops were held with more than 200 producers in 26 existing groups and with private agronomists. An evaluation process assessed the impact of the workshops on the learning and skill development by participants, their commitment to practice change, and their future intent to sow pastures. The results across both project catchments were highly correlated. There was strong agreement by producers (>90%) that the workshops had improved knowledge and skills regarding the adaptation of pasture species to soils and climates, enabling a better selection at the paddock level. Additional strong impacts were in changing the attitudes of producers to all aspects of pasture establishment, and the relative species composition of mixtures. Producers made a strong commitment to practice change, particularly in managing pasture as a specialist crop at establishment to minimise risk, and in the better selection and management of improved pasture species (particularly legumes and the use of fertiliser). Producers have made a commitment to increase pasture sowings by 80% in the next 5 years, with fourteen producers in one group alone having committed to sow an additional 4893 ha of pasture in 2007–08 under the QMDC subsidy scheme. The success of the project was attributed to the partnership between QMDC and Landcare groups who set individual workshop targets with LeyGrain presenters, the interactive engagement processes within the workshops themselves, and the follow-up provided by the LeyGrain team for on-farm activities.
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We explored mental toughness in soccer using a triangulation of data capture involving players (n = 6), coaches (n = 4), and parents (n = 5). Semi-structured interviews, based on a personal construct psychology (Kelly, 1955/1991) framework, were conducted to elicit participants' perspectives on the key characteristics and their contrasts, situations demanding mental toughness, and the behaviours displayed and cognitions employed by mentally tough soccer players. The results from the research provided further evidence that mental toughness is conceptually distinct from other psychological constructs such as hardiness. The findings also supported Gucciardi, Gordon, and Dimmock's (2009) process model of mental toughness. A winning mentality and desire was identified as a key attribute of mentally tough soccer players in addition to other previously reported qualities such as self-belief, physical toughness, work ethic/motivation, and resilience. Key cognitions reported by mentally tough soccer players enabled them to remain focused and competitive during training and matches and highlighted the adoption of several forms of self-talk in dealing with challenging situations. Minor revisions to Gucciardi and colleagues' definition of mental toughness are proposed.
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In 2002, AFL Queensland and the Brisbane Lions Football Club approached the Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries (Queensland) for advice on improving their Premier League sports fields. They were concerned about player safety and dissatisfaction with playing surfaces, particularly uneven turf cover and variable under-foot conditions. They wanted to get the best from new investments in ground maintenance equipment and irrigation infrastructure. Their sports fields were representative of community-standard, multi-use venues throughout Australia; generally ‘natural’ soil fields, with low maintenance budgets, managed by volunteers. Improvements such as reconstruction, drainage, or regular re-turfing are generally not affordable. Our project aimed to: (a) Review current world practice and performance benchmarks; (b) Demonstrate best-practice management for community-standard fields; (c) Adapt relevant methods for surface performance testing; (d) Assess current soils, and investigate useful amendments; (e) Improve irrigation system performance; and (e) Build industry capacity and encourage patterns for ongoing learning. Most global sports field research focuses on elite, sand-based fields. We adjusted elite standards for surface performance (hardness, traction, soil moisture, evenness, sward cover/height) and maintenance programs, to suit community-standard fields with lesser input resources. In regularly auditing ground conditions across 12 AFLQ fields in SE QLD, we discovered surface hardness (measured by Clegg Hammer) was the No. 1 factor affecting player safety and surface performance. Other important indices were turf coverage and surface compaction (measured by penetrometer). AFLQ now runs regularly audits affiliated fields, and closes grounds with hardness readings greater than 190 Gmax. Aerating every two months was the primary mechanical practice improving surface condition and reducing hardness levels to < 110 Gmax on the renovated project fields. With irrigation installation, these fields now record surface conditions comparable to elite fields. These improvements encouraged many other sporting organisations to seek advice / assistance from the project team. AFLQ have since substantially invested in an expanded ground improvement program, to cater for this substantially increased demand. In auditing irrigation systems across project fields, we identified low maintenance (with < 65% of sprinklers operating optimally) as a major problem. Retrofitting better nozzles and adjusting sprinklers improved irrigation distribution uniformity to 75-80%. Research showed that reducing irrigation frequency to weekly, and preparedness to withhold irrigation longer after rain, reduced irrigation requirement by 30-50%, compared to industry benchmarks of 5-6 ML/ha/annum. Project team consultation with regulatory authorities enhanced irrigation efficiency under imposed regional water restrictions. Laboratory studies showed incorporated biosolids / composts, or topdressed crumb rubber, improved compaction resistance of soils. Field evaluations confirmed compost incorporation significantly reduced surface hardness of high wear areas in dry conditions, whilst crumb rubber assisted turf persistence into early winter. Neither amendment was a panacea for poor agronomic practices. Under the auspices of the project Trade Mark Sureplay®, we published > 80 articles, and held > 100 extension activities involving > 2,000 participants. Sureplay® has developed a multi-level curator training structure and resource materials, subject to commercial implementation. The partnerships with industry bodies (particularly AFLQ), frequent extension activities, and engagement with government/regulatory sectors have been very successful, and are encouraged for any future work. Specific aspects of sports field management for further research include: (a) Understanding of factors affecting turf wear resistance and recovery, to improve turf persistence under wear; (b) Simple tests for pinpointing areas of fields with high hardness risk; and (c) Evaluation of new irrigation infrastructure, ‘water-saving’ devices, and irrigation protocols, in improving water use and turf cover outcomes.
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Catches of sharks and bycatch in large-mesh nets and baited drumlines used by the Queensland Shark Control Program were examined to determine the efficacy of both gear types and assess fishing strategies that minimise their impacts. There were few significant differences in the size of both sharks and bycatch in the two gear types, apart from significantly smaller (p < 0.05) tiger sharks Galeocerdo cuvier being taken on drumlines and smaller green turtles Chelonia mydas in nets. Catch per unit effort showed orders of magnitude differences among species, even within the same family. Hammerhead sharks and rays were particularly vulnerable to net capture, whereas higher catch rates of tiger sharks were observed for drumlines. Nets caught more marine mammals, teleost fish and rays, whereas drumlines exhibited higher catch rates of the threatened loggerhead turtle Caretta caretta. Survival of most taxa (particularly obligate ram ventilators) was lower in nets than drumlines. Bycatch species (turtles and marine mammals) were able to swim to the surface to breathe when they were hooked on drumlines, enhancing their survival potential. Fishing strategies that recognise the different selectivity patterns of the gear can be developed to suit local biotic and abiotic conditions, although it is recognised that quantification of both ecological risk and risk to bathers is not a simple task.
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STUDY QUESTION Is there a contribution of the minor allele at the KRAS single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) rs61764370 in the let-7 microRNA-binding site to endometriosis risk? SUMMARY ANSWER We found no evidence for association between endometriosis risk and rs61764370 or any other SNPs in KRAS. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY The rs61764370 SNP in the 3' untranslated region of the KRAS gene is predicted to disrupt a complementary binding site (LCS6) for the let-7 microRNA, and was recently reported to be at a high frequency (31%) in 132 women of varying ancestry with endometriosis compared with frequencies in a database of population controls (up to 7.6% depending on ancestry), suggesting a strong effect of this KRAS SNP in the aetiology of endometriosis. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE AND DURATION This was a case-control study with a total of 11 206 subjects. The study was performed between February 2012 and July 2012. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTINGAND METHODS We first investigated a possible association between common markers in KRAS and endometriosis risk from our genome-wide association (GWA) data in 3194 surgically confirmed endometriosis cases and 7060 controls of European ancestry. Although rs61764370 was not genotyped on the GWA arrays, five SNPs typed in the study were highly correlated with this variant. The rs61764370 and two SNPs highly correlated with rs61764370 were then genotyped in 933 endometriosis cases and 952 controls using the Sequenom MassARRAY platform. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE There was no evidence for an association between rs61764370 and endometriosis risk P = 0.411 and odds ratio = 1.10 (95% confidence intervals: 0.88-1.36). We also found no evidence for an association between the highly correlated SNP rs17387019 and endometriosis. Their minor allele frequencies in cases and controls were of 0.087-0.091 similar to the population frequency reported previously for this variant in controls. Analyses of endometriosis cases with revised American Fertility Society stage III/IV disease also showed no evidence for an association between these SNPs and endometriosis risk. LIMITATIONS AND REASONS FOR CAUTION The GWA and genotyped data sets were not independent since individuals and cases from some families overlap. Controls in our GWA study were not screened for endometriosis. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The key SNP, rs61764370, was genotyped in a subset of samples. Our results do not support the suggestion that carrying the minor allele at rs61764370 contributes to a significant number of endometriosis cases and rs61764370 is, therefore, unlikely to be a useful marker of endometriosis risk. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S) The research was funded by grants from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and Wellcome Trust. None of the authors has competing interests for the study.