823 resultados para probabilistic risk assessment


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Objective: Modern series from high-volume esophageal centers report an approximate 40% 5-year survival in patients treated with curative intent and postoperative mortality rates of less than 4%. An objective analysis of factors that underpin current benchmarks within high-volume centers has not been performed. Methods: Three time periods were studied, 1990 to 1998 (period 1), 1999 to 2003 (period 2), and 2004 to 2008 (period 3), in which 471, 254, and 342 patients, respectively, with esophageal cancer were treated with curative intent. All data were prospectively recorded, and staging, pathology, treatment, operative, and oncologic outcomes were compared. Results: Five-year disease-specific survival was 28%, 35%, and 44%, and in-hospital postoperative mortality was 6.7%, 4.4%, and 1.7% for periods 1 to 3, respectively (P < .001). Period 3, compared with periods 1 and 2, respectively, was associated with significantly (P < .001) more early tumors (17% vs 4% and 6%), higher nodal yields (median 22 vs 11 and 18), and a higher R0 rate in surgically treated patients (81% vs 73% and 75%). The use of multimodal therapy increased (P < .05) across time periods. By multivariate analysis, age, T stage, N stage, vascular invasion, R status, and time period were significantly (P < .0001) associated with outcome. Conclusions: Improved survival with localized esophageal cancer in the modern era may reflect an increase of early tumors and optimized staging. Important surgical and pathologic standards, including a higher R0 resection rate and nodal yields, and lower postoperative mortality, were also observed. Copyright © 2012 by The American Association for Thoracic Surgery.

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Background: The Lung Cancer Cetuximab Study is an open-label, randomized phase II pilot study of cisplatin and vinorelbine combined with the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR)-targeted monoclonal antibody cetuximab versus cisplatin and vinorelbine alone, in patients with advanced EGFR-expressing, non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). End points of the study are activity, safety and pharmacokinetics. Patients and methods: Following randomization, for a maximum of eight cycles, patients received three-weekly cycles of cisplatin (80 mg/m2, day 1) and vinorelbine (25 mg/m2 on days 1 and 8) alone or following cetuximab treatment (initial dose 400 mg/m, followed by 250 mg/m2 weekly thereafter). Results: Eighty-six patients were randomly allocated to the study (43 per arm). Confirmed response rates were 28% in the cisplatin/vinorelbine arm (A) and 35% in the cetuximab plus cisplatin/vinorelbine arm (B). Median progression-free survival (PFS) was 4.6 months in arm A and 5.0 months in arm B, with PFS rates at 12 months of 0% and 15%, respectively. Median survival was 7.3 months in arm A and 8.3 months in arm B. The 24-month survival rates were 0% and 16%, respectively. The cetuximab combination was well tolerated. Conclusion: In the first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC, the combination of cetuximab plus cisplatin/vinorelbine demonstrated an acceptable safety profile and the potential to improve activity over cisplatin/vinorelbine alone. © 2007 European Society for Medical Oncology.

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The liberalization of international trade and foreign direct investment through multilateral, regional and bilateral agreements has had profound implications for the structure and nature of food systems, and therefore, for the availability, nutritional quality, accessibility, price and promotion of foods in different locations. Public health attention has only relatively recently turned to the links between trade and investment agreements, diets and health, and there is currently no systematic monitoring of this area. This paper reviews the available evidence on the links between trade agreements, food environments and diets from an obesity and non-communicable disease (NCD) perspective. Based on the key issues identified through the review, the paper outlines an approach for monitoring the potential impact of trade agreements on food environments and obesity/NCD risks. The proposed monitoring approach encompasses a set of guiding principles, recommended procedures for data collection and analysis, and quantifiable ‘minimal’, ‘expanded’ and ‘optimal’ measurement indicators to be tailored to national priorities, capacity and resources. Formal risk assessment processes of existing and evolving trade and investment agreements, which focus on their impacts on food environments will help inform the development of healthy trade policy, strengthen domestic nutrition and health policy space and ultimately protect population nutrition.

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Biomonitoring has become the ‘gold standard’ in assessing chemical exposures, and plays an important role in risk assessment. The pooling of biological specimens – combining multiple individual specimens into a single sample – can be used in biomonitoring studies to monitor levels of exposure and identify exposure trends, or to identify susceptible populations in a cost-effective manner. Pooled samples provide an estimate of central tendency, and may also reveal information about variation within the population. The development of a pooling strategy requires careful consideration of the type and number of samples collected, the number of pools required, and the number of specimens to combine per pool in order to maximize the type and robustness of the data. Creative pooling strategies can be used to explore exposure-outcome associations, and extrapolation from other larger studies can be useful in identifying elevated exposures in specific individuals. The use of pooled specimens is advantageous as it saves significantly on analytical costs, may reduce the time and resources required for recruitment, and in certain circumstances, allows quantification of samples approaching the limit of detection. In addition, use of pooled samples can provide population estimates while avoiding ethical difficulties that may be associated with reporting individual results.

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This research analyses the extent of damage to buildings in Brisbane, Ipswich and Grantham during the recent Eastern Australia flooding and explore the role planning and design/construction regulations played in these failures. It highlights weaknesses in the current systems and propose effective solutions to mitigate future damage and financial loss under current or future climates. 2010 and early 2011 saw major flooding throughout much of Eastern Australia. Queensland and Victoria were particularly hard hit, with insured losses in these states reaching $2.5 billion and many thousands of homes inundated. The Queensland cities of Brisbane and Ipswich were the worst affected; around two-thirds of all inundated property/buildings were in these two areas. Other local government areas to record high levels of inundation were Central Highlands and Rockhampton Regional Councils in Queensland, and Buloke, Campaspe, Central Gold Fields and Loddon in Victoria. Flash flooding was a problem in a number of Victorian councils, but the Lockyer Valley west of Ipswich suffered the most extensive damage with 19 lives lost and more than 100 homes completely destroyed. In all more than 28,000 properties were inundated in Queensland and around 2,500 buildings affected in Victoria. Of the residential properties affected in Brisbane, around 90% were in areas developed prior to the introduction of floodplain development controls, with many also suffering inundation during the 1974 floods. The project developed a predictive model for estimating flood loss and occupant displacement. This model can now be used for flood risk assessments or rapid assessment of impacts following a flood event.

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One of the most important parts of any Bridge Management System (BMS) is the condition assessment and rating of bridges. This paper, introduces a procedure for condition assessment, based on criticality and vulnerability analysis. According to this procedure, new rating equations are developed. The inventory data is used to determine the contribution of different critical factors such as environmental effects, flood, earthquake, wind, and vehicle impacts. The criticality of the components to live load and vulnerability of the components to the above critical factors are identified. Based on the criticality and the vulnerability of the components and criticality of factors, and by using the new rating equations, the condition assessment and the rating of the railway bridges and their components at the network level will be conducted. This method for the first time incorporates structural analysis, available knowledge of risk assessment in structural engineering standards, and the experience of structural engineers in a practical way to enhance the reliability of the condition assessment and rating a network of bridges.

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We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

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Bushfires are regular occurrences in the Australian landscape which can, under adverse weather conditions, give rise to losses of life, property, infrastructure, environmental and cultural values. Where property loss is involved, historical surveys of house losses have focussed on ember, radiant heat and flame contact as key bushfire attack mechanisms. Although often noted, little work has been done to quantify the impact of fire generated or fire enhanced wind and pyro-convective events on house loss and to improve construction practice within Australia. It is well known that strong winds are always associated with bushfire events. It is less well known, although increasingly shown through anecdotal evidence, that bushfires are not a passive companion of wind, but indeed they interact with winds and can together cause significant damages to exposed buildings and ecological structures. Previous studies have revealed the effects of wind, fire and structure interactions with the result of increased pressure coefficient distributions on the windward side of a building downstream of a fire front. This paper presents a further analysis of the result in relations to the relevant standards and fire weather conditions. A review of wind code and bushfire code was conducted. Based on the result of the current study, the authors believe it is necessary to consider wind as an attack mechanism in bushfire events. The results of the study will also have implications on bushfire emergency management, design of emergency shelters, perception of danger, emergency evacuation and on risk assessment.

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Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is the term used to describe the disease process which presents as either deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. It is a major cause of death and disability worldwide and places a large financial burden on healthcare systems. Multiple risk factors have been identified for the development of VTE, including hospitalisation for acute medical illness and surgery. Documentation of VTE risk assessment is a critical part of any patient admission, driven by evidence that a risk assessment is a trigger for VTE prophylaxis to be considered. In the United Kingdom, healthcare services have set targets for VTE risk assessment documentation and financial incentives are linked to targets being met...

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Effective response by government and individuals to the risk of land degradation requires an understanding of regional climate variations and the impacts of climate and management on condition and productivity of land and vegetation resources. Analysis of past land degradation and climate variability provides some understanding of vulnerability to current and future climate changes and the information needs for more sustainable management. We describe experience in providing climate risk assessment information for managing for the risk of land degradation in north-eastern Australian arid and semi-arid regions used for extensive grazing. However, we note that information based on historical climate variability, which has been relied on in the past, will now also have to factor in the influence of human-induced climate change. Examples illustrate trends in climate for Australia over the past decade and the impacts on indicators of resource condition. The analysis highlights the benefits of insights into past trends and variability in rainfall and other climate variables based on extended historic databases. This understanding in turn supports more reliable regional climate projections and decision support information for governments and land managers to better manage the risk of land degradation now and in the future.

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Genotype distributions for GSTP1, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined in 91 patients with prostatic carcinoma and 135 patients with bladder carcinoma and compared with those in 127 abdominal surgery patients without malignancies. None of the genotypes differed significantly with respect to age or sex among controls or cancer patients. In the group of prostatic carcinoma patients, GSTT1 null allele homozygotes were more prevalent (25% in carcinoma patients vs 13% in controls, Fisher P=0.02, χ2 P = 0.02, OR = 2.31, CI = 1.17-4.59) and the combined M1-/T1-null genotype was also more frequent (9% vs 3%, χ2 P= 0.02, Fisher P = 0.03). Homozygosity for the GSTM1 null allele was more frequent among bladder carcinoma patients (59% in bladder carcinoma patients vs 45% in controls, Fisher P = 0.03, χ2 P = 0.02, OR = 1.76, CI = 1.08-2.88). In contrast to a previous report, no significant increase in the frequency of the GSTP1b allele was found in the tumor patients. Except for the combined GSTM1-/T1-null genotype in prostatic carcinoma, none of the combined genotypes showed a significant association with either of the cancers. These findings suggest that specific single polymorphic GST genes, that is GSTM1 in the case of bladder cancer and GSTT1 in the case of prostatic carcinoma, are most relevant for the development of these urological malignancies among the general population in Central Europe.

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Long-term inhalation studies in rodents have presented unequivocal evidence of experimental carcinogenicity of ethylene oxide, based on the formation of malignant tumors at multiple sites. However, despite a considerable body of epidemiological data only limited evidence has been obtained of its carcinogenicity in humans. Ethylene oxide is not only an important exogenous toxicant, but it is also formed from ethylene as a biological precursor. Ethylene is a normal body constituent; its endogenous formation is evidenced by exhalation in rats and in humans. Consequently, ethylene oxide must also be regarded as a physiological compound. The most abundant DNA adduct of ethylene oxide is 7-(2-hydroxyethyl)guanine (HOEtG). Open questions are the nature and role of tissue-specific factors in ethylene oxide carcinogenesis and the physiological and quantitative role of DNA repair mechanisms. The detection of remarkable individual differences in the susceptibility of humans has promoted research into genetic factors that influence the metabolism of ethylene oxide. With this background it appears that current PBPK models for trans-species extrapolation of ethylene oxide toxicity need to be refined further. For a cancer risk assessment at low levels of DNA damage, exposure-related adducts must be discussed in relation to background DNA damage as well as to inter- and intraindividual variability. In rats, subacute ethylene oxide exposures on the order of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3) cause DNA adduct levels (HOEtG) of the same magnitude as produced by endogenous ethylene oxide. Based on very recent studies the endogenous background levels of HOEtG in DNA of humans are comparable to those that are produced in rodents by repetitive exogenous ethylene oxide exposures of about 10 ppm (18.3 mg/m3). Experimentally, ethylene oxide has revealed only weak mutagenic effects in vivo, which are confined to higher doses. It has been concluded that long-term human occupational exposure to low airborne concentrations to ethylene oxide, at or below current occupational exposure limits of 1 ppm (1.83 mg/m3), would not produce unacceptable increased genotoxic risks. However, critical questions remain that need further discussions relating to the coherence of animal and human data of experimental data in vitro vs. in vivo and to species-specific dynamics of DNA lesions.

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Dihalomethanes can produce liver tumors in mice but not in rats, and concern exists about the risk of these compounds to humans. Glutathione (GSH) conjugation of dihalomethanes has been considered to be a critical event in the bioactivation process, and risk assessment is based upon this premise; however, there is little experimental support for this view or information about the basis of genotoxicity. A plasmid vector containing rat GSH S-transferase 5-5 was transfected into the Salmonella typhimurium tester strain TA1535, which then produced active enzyme. The transfected bacteria produced base-pair revertants in the presence of ethylene dihalides or dihalomethanes, in the order CH2Br2 > CH2BrCl > CH2Cl2. However, revertants were not seen when cells were exposed to GSH, CH2Br2, and an amount of purified GSH S-transferase 5-5 (20-fold excess in amount of that expressed within the cells). HCHO, which is an end product of the reaction of GSH with dihalomethanes, also did not produce mutations. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH was prepared as an analog of the putative S-(1-halomethyl)GSH reactive intermediates. This analog did not produce revertants, consistent with the view that activation of dihalomethanes must occur within the bacteria to cause genetic damage, presenting a model to be considered in studies with mammalian cells. S-(1-Acetoxymethyl)GSH reacted with 2′-deoxyguanosine to yield a major adduct, identified as S-[1-(N2-deoxyguanosinyl)methyl]GSH. Demonstration of the activation of dihalomethanes by this mammalian GSH S-transferase theta class enzyme should be of use in evaluating the risk of these chemicals, particularly in light of reports of the polymorphic expression of a similar activity in humans.

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Glutathione transferase (GST) GSTT1-1 is involved in the biotransformation of several chemicals widely used in industry, such as butadiene and dichloro methane DCM. The polymorphic hGSTT1-1 may well play a role in the development of kidney tumours after high and long-term occupational exposure against trichloroethylene. Although several studies have investigated the association of this polymorphism with malignant diseases little is known about its enzyme activity in potential extrahepatic target tissues. The known theta-specific substrates methyl chloride (MC) dichloromethane and 1,2-epoxy-3-(p-nitrophenoxy)propane (EPNP) were used to assay GSTT1-1 activity in liver and kidney of rats, mice, hamsters and humans differentiating the three phenotypes (non-conjugators, low conjugators, high conjugators) seen in humans. In addition GSTT1-1 activity towards MC and DCM was determined in human erythrocytes. No GSTT1-1 activity was found in any tissue of non-conjugators (NC). In all organs high conjugators (HC) showed twofold higher activity towards MC and DCM than low conjugators (LC). The activity in human samples towards EPNP was too close to the detection limit to differentiate between the three conjugator phenotypes. GSTT1-1 activity towards MC was two to seven-times higher in liver cytosol than in kidney cytosol. The relation for MC between species was identical in both organs: mouse > HC > rat > LC > hamster > NC. In rats, mice and hamsters GSTT1-1 activity in liver cytosol towards DCM was also two to seven-times higher than in the kidney cytosol. In humans this activity was twice as high in kidney cytosol than in liver cytosol. The relation between species was mouse > rat > HC > LC > hamster > NC for liver, but mouse > HC > LC/rat > hamster/NC for kidney cytosol. The importance to heed the specific environment at potential target sites in risk assessment is emphasized by these results.

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Universities supply a range of services to students. These include most obviously, tuition services in relation to undergraduate and postgraduate courses; research supervision services in relation to research degrees; as well as consultancy services in relation to Government and industry work. For the purposes of the CCA, universities are trading corporations. They engage in trade or commerce through the provision of a range of services for reward. As such Universities are subject to the same rules and regulations that govern the conduct of other trading corporations, such Coles and Woolworths. As senior officers and managers of a trading corporation you need to acquire some basic understanding of the rules that govern competition in the education sector. In other sectors, companies generally undertake a risk assessment of those areas where they are most at risk of contravening the CCA; to ascertain in advance how problems might arise so that they can put in place strategies to mitigate the risk of inadvertent contraventions.