944 resultados para least mean-square methods
Resumo:
Proposed is a symbol-based decision-directed algorithm for blind equalisation of quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) signals using a decision feedback scheme. Independently of QAM order, it presents: (i) an error equal to zero when the equaliser output coincides with the transmitted signal; (ii) simultaneous recovery of the modulus and phase of the signal; (iii) a misadjustment close to that of the normalised least-mean squares algorithm; (iv) fast convergence; and (v) the avoidance of degenerative solutions. Additionally, its stability is ensured when the step-size is properly chosen.
Resumo:
The objective of this research was to use non-linear models to describe the growth pattern in Santa Ines sheep and to study the influence of environmental effects on curve parameters with the best-fit model. The models included the Brody, Richards, Von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, and Logistic models. We used 773 field reports on 162 animals ranging in age from 120 to 774 days, including 46 males and 116 females. The statistics used to evaluate the quality of fit included RMS (residual mean square), C% (percentage of convergence), R-2 (adjusted determination coefficient) and MAD (mean absolute deviation). Of the fixed effects studied, the only significant relationship was the effect of sex on parameter A. The Richards model was problematic during the process of convergence. Considering all studied criteria, the Logistic model presented the best fit in describing the growth pattern in Santa Ines sheep. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The growth parameters (growth rate, mu and lag time, lambda) of three different strains each of Salmonella enterica and Listeria monocytogenes in minimally processed lettuce (MPL) and their changes as a function of temperature were modeled. MPL were packed under modified atmosphere (5% O-2, 15% CO2 and 80% N-2), stored at 7-30 degrees C and samples collected at different time intervals were enumerated for S. enterica and L monocytogenes. Growth curves and equations describing the relationship between mu and lambda as a function of temperature were constructed using the DMFit Excel add-in and through linear regression, respectively. The predicted growth parameters for the pathogens observed in this study were compared to ComBase, Pathogen modeling program (PMP) and data from the literature. High R-2 values (0.97 and 0.93) were observed for average growth curves of different strains of pathogens grown on MPL Secondary models of mu and lambda for both pathogens followed a linear trend with high R2 values (>0.90). Root mean square error (RMSE) showed that the models obtained are accurate and suitable for modeling the growth of S. enterica and L monocytogenes in MP lettuce. The current study provides growth models for these foodborne pathogens that can be used in microbial risk assessment. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
O objetivo deste trabalho foi parametrizar e avaliar o modelo DSSAT/Canegro para cinco variedades brasileiras de cana-de-açúcar. A parametrização foi realizada a partir do uso de dados biométricos e de crescimento das variedades CTC 4, CTC 7, CTC 20, RB 86-7515 e RB 83-5486, obtidos em cinco localidades brasileiras. Foi realizada análise de sensibilidade local para os principais parâmetros. A parametrização do modelo foi feita por meio da técnica de estimativa da incerteza de probabilidade generalizada ("generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation", Glue). Para a avaliação das predições, foram utilizados, como indicadores estatísticos, o coeficiente de determinação (R2), o índice D de Willmott e a raiz quadrada do erro-médio (RMSE). As variedades CTC apresentaram índice D entre 0,870 e 0,944, para índice de área foliar, altura de colmo, perfilhamento e teor de sacarose. A variedade RB 83-5486 apresentou resultados similares para teor de sacarose e massa de matéria fresca do colmo, enquanto a variedade RB 86-7515 apresentou valores entre 0,665 e 0,873, para as variáveis avaliadas.
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O agachamento afundo possui um posicionamento dos membros inferiores diferencial em relação ao agachamento padrão, necessitando de maiores esclarecimentos acerca das participações dos músculos envolvidos. O objetivo foi analisar a atividade eletromiográfica dos músculos vastus lateralis (VL), vastus medialis (VM), bíceps femoris (BF) e semitendinosus (ST) durante a execução do agachamento afundo até à exaustão com o membro inferior posicionado frontalmente e posteriormente. Participaram do estudo nove mulheres ativas com média (DP) de idade de 22 (3,4) anos e massa corporal 60,3 (4,1) kg. O agachamento afundo foi dividido em duas etapas, diferindo apenas o posicionamento do membro inferior dominante (randomizado). Os sinais eletromiográficos foram captados utilizando um eletromiógrafo e analisados os valores "root mean square" (RMS) na fase concêntrica. Os resultados indicaram um aumento significativo do RMS em função do tempo para o membro inferior posicionado frontalmente e posteriormente (p< 0,001). No membro posicionado frontalmente, o aumento do RMS correspondeu a 50% para o VL, 54% para o VM e 48% para o BF. O membro posicionado posteriormente apresentou um aumento de 75% para o VL, 113% para o VM, 62% para o BF e 48% para o ST. O RMS também foi significativamente maior no músculo VM em relação ao ST no membro inferior posicionado anteriormente (p = 0,03) e em relação ao ST e BF no membro inferior posicionado posteriormente (p = 0,02). Não ocorreu interação significativa entre o efeito do tempo e músculo na atividade eletromiográfica. O RMS normalizado não apresentou diferenças estatisticamente significativas no que se refere ao posicionamento do membro inferior dominante. A atividade muscular foi semelhante em ambos os posicionamentos do membro inferior, apresentando maior aumento de ativação dos músculos VL e VM em relação ao BF e ST.
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[EN] Here we present monthly, basin-wide maps of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) for the North Atlantic on a latitude by longitude grid for years 2004 through 2006 inclusive. The maps have been computed using a neural network technique which reconstructs the non-linear relationships between three biogeochemical parameters and marine pCO2. A self organizing map (SOM) neural network has been trained using 389 000 triplets of the SeaWiFSMODIS chlorophyll-a concentration, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis sea surface temperature, and the FOAM mixed layer depth. The trained SOM was labelled with 137 000 underway pCO2 measurements collected in situ during 2004, 2005 and 2006 in the North Atlantic, spanning the range of 208 to 437atm. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the neural network fit to the data is 11.6?atm, which equals to just above 3 per cent of an average pCO2 value in the in situ dataset. The seasonal pCO2 cycle as well as estimates of the interannual variability in the major biogeochemical provinces are presented and discussed. High resolution combined with basin-wide coverage makes the maps a useful tool for several applications such as the monitoring of basin-wide air-sea CO2 fluxes or improvement of seasonal and interannual marine CO2 cycles in future model predictions. The method itself is a valuable alternative to traditional statistical modelling techniques used in geosciences.
Resumo:
Human reactions to vibration have been extensively investigated in the past. Vibration, as well as whole-body vibration (WBV), has been commonly considered as an occupational hazard for its detrimental effects on human condition and comfort. Although long term exposure to vibrations may produce undesirable side-effects, a great part of the literature is dedicated to the positive effects of WBV when used as method for muscular stimulation and as an exercise intervention. Whole body vibration training (WBVT) aims to mechanically activate muscles by eliciting neuromuscular activity (muscle reflexes) via the use of vibrations delivered to the whole body. The most mentioned mechanism to explain the neuromuscular outcomes of vibration is the elicited neuromuscular activation. Local tendon vibrations induce activity of the muscle spindle Ia fibers, mediated by monosynaptic and polysynaptic pathways: a reflex muscle contraction known as the Tonic Vibration Reflex (TVR) arises in response to such vibratory stimulus. In WBVT mechanical vibrations, in a range from 10 to 80 Hz and peak to peak displacements from 1 to 10 mm, are usually transmitted to the patient body by the use of oscillating platforms. Vibrations are then transferred from the platform to a specific muscle group through the subject body. To customize WBV treatments, surface electromyography (SEMG) signals are often used to reveal the best stimulation frequency for each subject. Use of SEMG concise parameters, such as root mean square values of the recordings, is also a common practice; frequently a preliminary session can take place in order to discover the more appropriate stimulation frequency. Soft tissues act as wobbling masses vibrating in a damped manner in response to mechanical excitation; Muscle Tuning hypothesis suggest that neuromuscular system works to damp the soft tissue oscillation that occurs in response to vibrations; muscles alters their activity to dampen the vibrations, preventing any resonance phenomenon. Muscle response to vibration is however a complex phenomenon as it depends on different parameters, like muscle-tension, muscle or segment-stiffness, amplitude and frequency of the mechanical vibration. Additionally, while in the TVR study the applied vibratory stimulus and the muscle conditions are completely characterised (a known vibration source is applied directly to a stretched/shortened muscle or tendon), in WBV study only the stimulus applied to a distal part of the body is known. Moreover, mechanical response changes in relation to the posture. The transmissibility of vibratory stimulus along the body segment strongly depends on the position held by the subject. The aim of this work was the investigation on the effects that the use of vibrations, in particular the effects of whole body vibrations, may have on muscular activity. A new approach to discover the more appropriate stimulus frequency, by the use of accelerometers, was also explored. Different subjects, not affected by any known neurological or musculoskeletal disorders, were voluntarily involved in the study and gave their informed, written consent to participate. The device used to deliver vibration to the subjects was a vibrating platform. Vibrations impressed by the platform were exclusively vertical; platform displacement was sinusoidal with an intensity (peak-to-peak displacement) set to 1.2 mm and with a frequency ranging from 10 to 80 Hz. All the subjects familiarized with the device and the proper positioning. Two different posture were explored in this study: position 1 - hack squat; position 2 - subject standing on toes with heels raised. SEMG signals from the Rectus Femoris (RF), Vastus Lateralis (VL) and Vastus medialis (VM) were recorded. SEMG signals were amplified using a multi-channel, isolated biomedical signal amplifier The gain was set to 1000 V/V and a band pass filter (-3dB frequency 10 - 500 Hz) was applied; no notch filters were used to suppress line interference. Tiny and lightweight (less than 10 g) three-axial MEMS accelerometers (Freescale semiconductors) were used to measure accelerations of onto patient’s skin, at EMG electrodes level. Accelerations signals provided information related to individuals’ RF, Biceps Femoris (BF) and Gastrocnemius Lateralis (GL) muscle belly oscillation; they were pre-processed in order to exclude influence of gravity. As demonstrated by our results, vibrations generate peculiar, not negligible motion artifact on skin electrodes. Artifact amplitude is generally unpredictable; it appeared in all the quadriceps muscles analysed, but in different amounts. Artifact harmonics extend throughout the EMG spectrum, making classic high-pass filters ineffective; however, their contribution was easy to filter out from the raw EMG signal with a series of sharp notch filters centred at the vibration frequency and its superior harmonics (1.5 Hz wide). However, use of these simple filters prevents the revelation of EMG power potential variation in the mentioned filtered bands. Moreover our experience suggests that the possibility of reducing motion artefact, by using particular electrodes and by accurately preparing the subject’s skin, is not easily viable; even though some small improvements were obtained, it was not possible to substantially decrease the artifact. Anyway, getting rid of those artifacts lead to some true EMG signal loss. Nevertheless, our preliminary results suggest that the use of notch filters at vibration frequency and its harmonics is suitable for motion artifacts filtering. In RF SEMG recordings during vibratory stimulation only a little EMG power increment should be contained in the mentioned filtered bands due to synchronous electromyographic activity of the muscle. Moreover, it is better to remove the artifact that, in our experience, was found to be more than 40% of the total signal power. In summary, many variables have to be taken into account: in addition to amplitude, frequency and duration of vibration treatment, other fundamental variables were found to be subject anatomy, individual physiological condition and subject’s positioning on the platform. Studies on WBV treatments that include surface EMG analysis to asses muscular activity during vibratory stimulation should take into account the presence of motion artifacts. Appropriate filtering of artifacts, to reveal the actual effect on muscle contraction elicited by vibration stimulus, is mandatory. However as a result of our preliminary study, a simple multi-band notch filtering may help to reduce randomness of the results. Muscle tuning hypothesis seemed to be confirmed. Our results suggested that the effects of WBV are linked to the actual muscle motion (displacement). The greater was the muscle belly displacement the higher was found the muscle activity. The maximum muscle activity has been found in correspondence with the local mechanical resonance, suggesting a more effective stimulation at the specific system resonance frequency. Holding the hypothesis that muscle activation is proportional to muscle displacement, treatment optimization could be obtained by simply monitoring local acceleration (resonance). However, our study revealed some short term effects of vibratory stimulus; prolonged studies should be assembled in order to consider the long term effectiveness of these results. Since local stimulus depends on the kinematic chain involved, WBV muscle stimulation has to take into account the transmissibility of the stimulus along the body segment in order to ensure that vibratory stimulation effectively reaches the target muscle. Combination of local resonance and muscle response should also be further investigated to prevent hazards to individuals undergoing WBV treatments.
Resumo:
This thesis deal with the design of advanced OFDM systems. Both waveform and receiver design have been treated. The main scope of the Thesis is to study, create, and propose, ideas and novel design solutions able to cope with the weaknesses and crucial aspects of modern OFDM systems. Starting from the the transmitter side, the problem represented by low resilience to non-linear distortion has been assessed. A novel technique that considerably reduces the Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) yielding a quasi constant signal envelope in the time domain (PAPR close to 1 dB) has been proposed.The proposed technique, named Rotation Invariant Subcarrier Mapping (RISM),is a novel scheme for subcarriers data mapping,where the symbols belonging to the modulation alphabet are not anchored, but maintain some degrees of freedom. In other words, a bit tuple is not mapped on a single point, rather it is mapped onto a geometrical locus, which is totally or partially rotation invariant. The final positions of the transmitted complex symbols are chosen by an iterative optimization process in order to minimize the PAPR of the resulting OFDM symbol. Numerical results confirm that RISM makes OFDM usable even in severe non-linear channels. Another well known problem which has been tackled is the vulnerability to synchronization errors. Indeed in OFDM system an accurate recovery of carrier frequency and symbol timing is crucial for the proper demodulation of the received packets. In general, timing and frequency synchronization is performed in two separate phases called PRE-FFT and POST-FFT synchronization. Regarding the PRE-FFT phase, a novel joint symbol timing and carrier frequency synchronization algorithm has been presented. The proposed algorithm is characterized by a very low hardware complexity, and, at the same time, it guarantees very good performance in in both AWGN and multipath channels. Regarding the POST-FFT phase, a novel approach for both pilot structure and receiver design has been presented. In particular, a novel pilot pattern has been introduced in order to minimize the occurrence of overlaps between two pattern shifted replicas. This allows to replace conventional pilots with nulls in the frequency domain, introducing the so called Silent Pilots. As a result, the optimal receiver turns out to be very robust against severe Rayleigh fading multipath and characterized by low complexity. Performance of this approach has been analytically and numerically evaluated. Comparing the proposed approach with state of the art alternatives, in both AWGN and multipath fading channels, considerable performance improvements have been obtained. The crucial problem of channel estimation has been thoroughly investigated, with particular emphasis on the decimation of the Channel Impulse Response (CIR) through the selection of the Most Significant Samples (MSSs). In this contest our contribution is twofold, from the theoretical side, we derived lower bounds on the estimation mean-square error (MSE) performance for any MSS selection strategy,from the receiver design we proposed novel MSS selection strategies which have been shown to approach these MSE lower bounds, and outperformed the state-of-the-art alternatives. Finally, the possibility of using of Single Carrier Frequency Division Multiple Access (SC-FDMA) in the Broadband Satellite Return Channel has been assessed. Notably, SC-FDMA is able to improve the physical layer spectral efficiency with respect to single carrier systems, which have been used so far in the Return Channel Satellite (RCS) standards. However, it requires a strict synchronization and it is also sensitive to phase noise of local radio frequency oscillators. For this reason, an effective pilot tone arrangement within the SC-FDMA frame, and a novel Joint Multi-User (JMU) estimation method for the SC-FDMA, has been proposed. As shown by numerical results, the proposed scheme manages to satisfy strict synchronization requirements and to guarantee a proper demodulation of the received signal.
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Nuclear charge radii of short-lived isotopes can be probed in a nuclear-model independent way via isotope shift measurements. For this purpose a novel technique was developed at GSI, Darmstadt. It combines two-photon laser spectroscopy in the 2s-3s electronic transition of lithium, resonance ionization, and detection via quadrupole mass spectrometry. In this way an accuracy of 5e-5 which is necessary for the extraction of nuclear charge radii, and an overall detection efficiency of 1e-4 is reached. This allowed an isotope shift measurement of Li-11 for the first time at the TRIUMF facility in Vancouver. Additionally, uncertainties in the isotope shift for all other lithium isotopes were reduced by about a factor of four compared to previous measurements at GSI. Results were combined with recent theoretical mass shift calculations in three-electron systems and root-mean-square nuclear charge radii of all lithium isotopes, particulary of the two-neutron halo nucleus Li-11, were determined. Obtained charge radii decrease continuously from Li-6 to Li-9, while a strong increase between Li-9 and Li-11 is observed. This is compared to predictions of various nuclear models and it is found that a multicluster model gives the best overall agreement. Within this model, the increase in charge radius between Li-9 and Li-11is to a large extend caused by intrinsic excitation of the Li-9-like core while the neutron-halo correlation contributes only to a small extend.
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Monte Carlo simulations are used to study the effect of confinement on a crystal of point particles interacting with an inverse power law potential in d=2 dimensions. This system can describe colloidal particles at the air-water interface, a model system for experimental study of two-dimensional melting. It is shown that the state of the system (a strip of width D) depends very sensitively on the precise boundary conditions at the two ``walls'' providing the confinement. If one uses a corrugated boundary commensurate with the order of the bulk triangular crystalline structure, both orientational order and positional order is enhanced, and such surface-induced order persists near the boundaries also at temperatures where the system in the bulk is in its fluid state. However, using smooth repulsive boundaries as walls providing the confinement, only the orientational order is enhanced, but positional (quasi-) long range order is destroyed: The mean-square displacement of two particles n lattice parameters apart in the y-direction along the walls then crosses over from the logarithmic increase (characteristic for $d=2$) to a linear increase (characteristic for d=1). The strip then exhibits a vanishing shear modulus. These results are interpreted in terms of a phenomenological harmonic theory. Also the effect of incommensurability of the strip width D with the triangular lattice structure is discussed, and a comparison with surface effects on phase transitions in simple Ising- and XY-models is made
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Optical frequency comb technology has been used in this work for the first time to investigate the nuclear structure of light radioactive isotopes. Therefore, three laser systems were stabilized with different techniques to accurately known optical frequencies and used in two specialized experiments. Absolute transition frequency measurements of lithium and beryllium isotopes were performed with accuracy on the order of 10^(−10). Such a high accuracy is required for the light elements since the nuclear volume effect has only a 10^(−9) contribution to the total transition frequency. For beryllium, the isotope shift was determined with an accuracy that is sufficient to extract information about the proton distribution inside the nucleus. A Doppler-free two-photon spectroscopy on the stable lithium isotopes (6,7)^Li was performed in order to determine the absolute frequency of the 2S → 3S transition. The achieved relative accuracy of 2×10^(−10) is improved by one order of magnitude compared to previous measurements. The results provide an opportunity to determine the nuclear charge radius of the stable and short-lived isotopes in a pure optical way but this requires an improvement of the theoretical calculations by two orders of magnitude. The second experiment presented here was performed at ISOLDE/CERN, where the absolute transition frequencies of the D1 and D2 lines in beryllium ions for the isotopes (7,9,10,11)^Be were measured with an accuracy of about 1 MHz. Therefore, an advanced collinear laser spectroscopy technique involving two counter-propagating frequency-stabilized laser beams with a known absolute frequency was developed. The extracted isotope shifts were combined with recent accurate mass shift calculations and the root-mean square nuclear charge radii of (7,10)^Be and the one-neutron halo nucleus 11^Be were determined. Obtained charge radii are decreasing from 7^Be to 10^Be and increasing again for 11^Be. While the monotone decrease can be explained by a nucleon clustering inside the nucleus, the pronounced increase between 10^Be and 11^Be can be interpreted as a combination of two contributions: the center-of-mass motion of the 10^Be core and a change of intrinsic structure of the core. To disentangle these two contributions, the results from nuclear reaction measurements were used and indicate that the center-of-mass motion is the dominant effect. Additionally, the splitting isotope shift, i.e. the difference in the isotope shifts between the D1 and D2 fine structure transitions, was determined. This shows a good consistency with the theoretical calculations and provides a valuable check of the beryllium experiment.
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Nel primo capitolo viene introdotto lo studio eff�ettuato e descritto un metodo di misure successivo alla caratterizzazione della super�ficie. Nel secondo capitolo vengono descritti i campioni analizzati e, nello speci�fico, la crescita attraverso MaCE dei nanofi�li di silicio. Nel terzo capitolo viene descritto lo strumento AFM utilizzato e la teoria della caratterizzazione alla base dello studio condotto. Nella quarta sezione vengono descritti i risultati ottenuti mentre nelle conclusioni viene tratto il risultato dei valori ottenuti di RMS roughness e roughness exponent.
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Wearable inertial and magnetic measurements units (IMMU) are an important tool for underwater motion analysis because they are swimmer-centric, they require only simple measurement set-up and they provide the performance results very quickly. In order to estimate 3D joint kinematics during motion, protocols were developed to transpose the IMMU orientation estimation to a biomechanical model. The aim of the thesis was to validate a protocol originally propositioned to estimate the joint angles of the upper limbs during one-degree-of-freedom movements in dry settings and herein modified to perform 3D kinematics analysis of shoulders, elbows and wrists during swimming. Eight high-level swimmers were assessed in the laboratory by means of an IMMU while simulating the front crawl and breaststroke movements. A stereo-photogrammetric system (SPS) was used as reference. The joint angles (in degrees) of the shoulders (flexion-extension, abduction-adduction and internal-external rotation), the elbows (flexion-extension and pronation-supination), and the wrists (flexion-extension and radial-ulnar deviation) were estimated with the two systems and compared by means of root mean square errors (RMSE), relative RMSE, Pearson’s product-moment coefficient correlation (R) and coefficient of multiple correlation (CMC). Subsequently, the athletes were assessed during pool swimming trials through the IMMU. Considering both swim styles and all joint degrees of freedom modeled, the comparison between the IMMU and the SPS showed median values of RMSE lower than 8°, representing 10% of overall joint range of motion, high median values of CMC (0.97) and R (0.96). These findings suggest that the protocol accurately estimated the 3D orientation of the shoulders, elbows and wrists joint during swimming with accuracy adequate for the purposes of research. In conclusion, the proposed method to evaluate the 3D joint kinematics through IMMU was revealed to be a useful tool for both sport and clinical contexts.
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Spatial prediction of hourly rainfall via radar calibration is addressed. The change of support problem (COSP), arising when the spatial supports of different data sources do not coincide, is faced in a non-Gaussian setting; in fact, hourly rainfall in Emilia-Romagna region, in Italy, is characterized by abundance of zero values and right-skeweness of the distribution of positive amounts. Rain gauge direct measurements on sparsely distributed locations and hourly cumulated radar grids are provided by the ARPA-SIMC Emilia-Romagna. We propose a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model for radar calibration, exploiting rain gauges as reference measure. Rain probability and amounts are modeled via linear relationships with radar in the log scale; spatial correlated Gaussian effects capture the residual information. We employ a probit link for rainfall probability and Gamma distribution for rainfall positive amounts; the two steps are joined via a two-part semicontinuous model. Three model specifications differently addressing COSP are presented; in particular, a stochastic weighting of all radar pixels, driven by a latent Gaussian process defined on the grid, is employed. Estimation is performed via MCMC procedures implemented in C, linked to R software. Communication and evaluation of probabilistic, point and interval predictions is investigated. A non-randomized PIT histogram is proposed for correctly assessing calibration and coverage of two-part semicontinuous models. Predictions obtained with the different model specifications are evaluated via graphical tools (Reliability Plot, Sharpness Histogram, PIT Histogram, Brier Score Plot and Quantile Decomposition Plot), proper scoring rules (Brier Score, Continuous Rank Probability Score) and consistent scoring functions (Root Mean Square Error and Mean Absolute Error addressing the predictive mean and median, respectively). Calibration is reached and the inclusion of neighbouring information slightly improves predictions. All specifications outperform a benchmark model with incorrelated effects, confirming the relevance of spatial correlation for modeling rainfall probability and accumulation.