Temporal Characterization of Ossification of the Crania in Australian Subadults: New standards for Age Estimation using Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will gain awareness of the ontogeny of cranial maturation, specifically: (1) the fusion timings of primary ossification centers in the basicranium; and (2) the temporal pattern of closure of the anterior fontanelle, to develop new population-specific age standards for medicolegal death investigation of Australian subadults. This presentation will impact the forensic science community by demonstrating the potential of a contemporary forensic subadult Computed Tomography (CT) database of cranial scans and population data, to recalibrate existing standards for age estimation and quantify growth and development of Australian children. This research welcomes a study design applicable to all countries faced with paucity in skeletal repositories. Accurate assessment of age-at-death of skeletal remains represents a key element in forensic anthropology methodology. In Australian casework, age standards derived from American reference samples are applied in light of scarcity in documented Australian skeletal collections. Currently practitioners rely on antiquated standards, such as the Scheuer and Black1 compilation for age estimation, despite implications of secular trends and population variation. Skeletal maturation standards are population specific and should not be extrapolated from one population to another, while secular changes in skeletal dimensions and accelerated maturation underscore the importance of establishing modern standards to estimate age in modern subadults. Despite CT imaging becoming the gold standard for skeletal analysis in Australia, practitioners caution the application of forensic age standards derived from macroscopic inspection to a CT medium, suggesting a need for revised methodologies. Multi-slice CT scans of subadult crania and cervical vertebrae 1 and 2 were acquired from 350 Australian individuals (males: n=193, females: n=157) aged birth to 12 years. The CT database, projected at 920 individuals upon completion (January 2014), comprises thin-slice DICOM data (resolution: 0.5/0.3mm) of patients scanned since 2010 at major Brisbane Childrens Hospitals. DICOM datasets were subject to manual segmentation, followed by the construction of multi-planar and volume rendering cranial models, for subsequent scoring. The union of primary ossification centers of the occipital bone were scored as open, partially closed or completely closed; while the fontanelles, and vertebrae were scored in accordance with two stages. Transition analysis was applied to elucidate age at transition between union states for each center, and robust age parameters established using Bayesian statistics. In comparison to reported literature, closure of the fontanelles and contiguous sutures in Australian infants occur earlier than reported, with the anterior fontanelle transitioning from open to closed at 16.7±1.1 months. The metopic suture is closed prior to 10 weeks post-partum and completely obliterated by 6 months of age, independent of sex. Utilizing reverse engineering capabilities, an alternate method for infant age estimation based on quantification of fontanelle area and non-linear regression with variance component modeling will be presented. Closure models indicate that the greatest rate of change in anterior fontanelle area occurs prior to 5 months of age. This study complements the work of Scheuer and Black1, providing more specific age intervals for union and temporal maturity of each primary ossification center of the occipital bone. For example, dominant fusion of the sutura intra-occipitalis posterior occurs before 9 months of age, followed by persistence of a hyaline cartilage tongue posterior to the foramen magnum until 2.5 years; with obliteration at 2.9±0.1 years. Recalibrated age parameters for the atlas and axis are presented, with the anterior arch of the atlas appearing at 2.9 months in females and 6.3 months in males; while dentoneural, dentocentral and neurocentral junctions of the axis transitioned from non-union to union at 2.1±0.1 years in females and 3.7±0.1 years in males. These results are an exemplar of significant sexual dimorphism in maturation (p<0.05), with girls exhibiting union earlier than boys, justifying the need for segregated sex standards for age estimation. Studies such as this are imperative for providing updated standards for Australian forensic and pediatric practice and provide an insight into skeletal development of this population. During this presentation, the utility of novel regression models for age estimation of infants will be discussed, with emphasis on three-dimensional modeling capabilities of complex structures such as fontanelles, for the development of new age estimation methods.

Detoxification enzyme activities (CYP1A1 and GST) in the skin of humpback whales as a function of organochlorine burdens and migration status

The activities of glutathione-s-transferase (GST) and cytochrome P-450 1A1 (CYP1A1) enzymes were measured in freshly extracted epidermis of live-biopsied, migrating, southern hemisphere humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). The two quantified enzyme activities did not correlate strongly with each other. Similarly, neither correlated strongly with any of the organochlorine compound groups previously measured in the superficial blubber of the sample biopsy core, likely reflecting the anticipated low levels of typical aryl-hydrocarbon receptor ligands. GST activity did not differ significantly between genders or between northward (early migration) or southward (late migration) migrating cohorts. Indeed, the inter-individual variability in GST measurements was relatively low. This observation raises the possibility that measured activities were basal activities and that GST function was inherently impacted by the fasting state of the sampled animals, as seen in other species. These results do not support the implementation of CYP1A1 or GST as effective biomarkers of organochlorine contaminant burdens in southern hemisphere populations of humpback whales as advocated for other cetacean species. Further investigation of GST activity in feeding versus fasting cohorts may, however, provide some insight into the fasting metabolism of these behaviourally adapted populations.

Simulation-based density estimation for time series using covariate data

This paper proposes a simulation-based density estimation technique for time series that exploits information found in covariate data. The method can be paired with a large range of parametric models used in time series estimation. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimator and illustrate attractive finite sample properties for a range of well-known econometric and financial applications.

Online estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular randomwalk and rate randomwalk coefficients of inertial measurement unit gyros and accelerometers. In the online method, a state-space model is proposed, and recursive parameter estimators are proposed for quantities previously measured from offline data techniques such as the Allan variance method. The Allan variance method has large offline computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of approximately 100 calculations per data sample.

Adaptive estimation of HMM transition probabilities

This paper presents new schemes for recursive estimation of the state transition probabilities for hidden Markov models (HMM's) via extended least squares (ELS) and recursive state prediction error (RSPE) methods. Local convergence analysis for the proposed RSPE algorithm is shown using the ordinary differential equation (ODE) approach developed for the more familiar recursive output prediction error (RPE) methods. The presented scheme converges and is relatively well conditioned compared with the ...

On adaptive HMM state estimation

In this paper new online adaptive hidden Markov model (HMM) state estimation schemes are developed, based on extended least squares (ELS) concepts and recursive prediction error (RPE) methods. The best of the new schemes exploit the idempotent nature of Markov chains and work with a least squares prediction error index, using a posterior estimates, more suited to Markov models then traditionally used in identification of linear systems.

Reduced complexity on-line estimation of hidden Markov model parameters

In this paper we propose and study low complexity algorithms for on-line estimation of hidden Markov model (HMM) parameters. The estimates approach the true model parameters as the measurement noise approaches zero, but otherwise give improved estimates, albeit with bias. On a nite data set in the high noise case, the bias may not be signi cantly more severe than for a higher complexity asymptotically optimal scheme. Our algorithms require O(N3) calculations per time instant, where N is the number of states. Previous algorithms based on earlier hidden Markov model signal processing methods, including the expectation-maximumisation (EM) algorithm require O(N4) calculations per time instant.

Faster parameter estimation using risk-sensitive filters

In this paper, we propose a risk-sensitive approach to parameter estimation for hidden Markov models (HMMs). The parameter estimation approach considered exploits estimation of various functions of the state, based on model estimates. We propose certain practical suboptimal risk-sensitive filters to estimate the various functions of the state during transients, rather than optimal risk-neutral filters as in earlier studies. The estimates are asymptotically optimal, if asymptotically risk neutral, and can give significantly improved transient performance, which is a very desirable objective for certain engineering applications. To demonstrate the improvement in estimation simulation studies are presented that compare parameter estimation based on risk-sensitive filters with estimation based on risk-neutral filters.

On-line estimation of Allan variance parameters

A new online method is presented for estimation of the angular random walk and rate random walk coefficients of IMU (inertial measurement unit) gyros and accelerometers. The online method proposes a state space model and proposes parameter estimators for quantities previously measured from off-line data techniques such as the Allan variance graph. Allan variance graphs have large off-line computational effort and data storage requirements. The technique proposed here requires no data storage and computational effort of O(100) calculations per data sample.

Thrust allocation with linear constrained quadratic cost function

In this paper, a method of thrust allocation based on a linearly constrained quadratic cost function capable of handling rotating azimuths is presented. The problem formulation accounts for magnitude and rate constraints on both thruster forces and azimuth angles. The advantage of this formulation is that the solution can be found with a finite number of iterations for each time step. Experiments with a model ship are used to validate the thrust allocation system.

Short-data recursive HMM parameter estimation for rapid vision-based aircraft heading estimation

Rapid recursive estimation of hidden Markov Model (HMM) parameters is important in applications that place an emphasis on the early availability of reasonable estimates (e.g. for change detection) rather than the provision of longer-term asymptotic properties (such as convergence, convergence rate, and consistency). In the context of vision- based aircraft (image-plane) heading estimation, this paper suggests and evaluates the short-data estimation properties of 3 recursive HMM parameter estimation techniques (a recursive maximum likelihood estimator, an online EM HMM estimator, and a relative entropy based estimator). On both simulated and real data, our studies illustrate the feasibility of rapid recursive heading estimation, but also demonstrate the need for careful step-size design of HMM recursive estimation techniques when these techniques are intended for use in applications where short-data behaviour is paramount.

Visual function and the ageing visual system

The population is ageing. Globally, the number of older adults (aged 60 years or over) is expected to more than double, from 841 million people in 2013 to more than 2 billion in 2050.1 In light of the increasing size of the older adult population, there is a pressing need to better identify the nature of, and mechanisms underlying, age-related vision impairment and the functional impact it has on the performance of everyday activities in older adults. The content of this feature issue reflects the diversity of research currently being undertaken on the topic of the ageing visual system and the important visual challenges that this presents for our ageing patient population. The scope is broad and includes topics relating to three main related themes: 1) The treatment of age-related ocular disorders and diseases and their consequences, including presbyopia and AMD; 2) The impact of age-related visual changes on everyday activities in older people, including mobility, driving and falls, and; 3) The interaction of age-related visual impairments and other age-related impairments including hearing and cognitive changes.

Theoretical modelling of momentum transfer function of bi-disperse porous media

The aim of this paper is to obtain the momentum transfer coefficient between the two phases, denoted by f and p, occupying a bi-disperse porous medium by mapping the available experimental data to the theoretical model proposed by Nield and Kuznetsov. Data pertinent to plate-fin heat exchangers, as bi-disperse porous media, were used. The measured pressure drops for such heat exchangers are then used to give the overall permeability which is linked to the porosity and permeability of each phase as well as the interfacial momentum transfer coefficient between the two phases. Accordingly, numerical values are obtained for the momentum transfer coefficient for three different fin spacing values considered in the heat exchanger experiments.