On Measuring the Efficiency of Monetary Policy

Cecchetti et al. (2006) develop a method for allocating macroeconomic performance changes among the structure of the economy, variability of supply shocks and monetary policy. We propose a dual approach of their method by borrowing well-known tools from production theory, namely the Farrell measure and the Malmquist index. Following FÄare et al (1994) we propose a decomposition of the efficiency of monetary policy. It is shown that the global efficiency changes can be rewritten as the product of the changes in macroeconomic performance, minimum quadratic loss, and efficiency frontier.

Estimating Phillips Curves in Turbulent Times using the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters

This paper uses forecasts from the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters to investigate the relationship between inflation and inflation expectations in the euro area. We use theoretical structures based on the New Keynesian and Neoclassical Phillips curves to inform our empirical work. Given the relatively short data span of the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the need to control for many explanatory variables, we use dynamic model averaging in order to ensure a parsimonious econometric speci cation. We use both regression-based and VAR-based methods. We find no support for the backward looking behavior embedded in the Neo-classical Phillips curve. Much more support is found for the forward looking behavior of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, but most of this support is found after the beginning of the financial crisis.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy for the OECD

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Psychodynamic interventions in cancer care I: psychometric results of a randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of psychodynamic interventions in cancer care. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2009, each consecutive outpatient of the Oncology Center of the University Hospital of Lausanne was invited to participate in a trial evaluating the effects of psychological support. Accepting patients were randomly assigned to an immediate intervention or a delayed intervention [4-month waiting list]. Patients who declined support were asked to participate in an observational group [OG]. Socio-demographic and medical data, anxiety, and depression [HADS], psychological distress [SCL-90], alexithymia [TAS] and quality of life [EORTC] were recorded at baseline, and at 1, 4, 8, and 12-months follow-up. RESULTS: Of the 1973 approached patients, 1057 were excluded, 530 refused, and 386 were included with 196 of them participating in the OG. Of the patients in the intervention group [IG] [N = 190], 94 were randomized to the immediate intervention and 96 to the delayed intervention group (dIG). IG patients were younger, predominantly female, and had more psychological symptoms compared with those in the OG. Although patients of the IG and OG showed significant improvement in quality of life from baseline to 12-months follow-up, other outcomes [anxiety, depression, psychological distress, and alexithymia] remained unchanged. CONCLUSIONS: The intervention was not effective with regards to psychometric outcome. The results have to be interpreted in light of the study design [untargeted intervention], the low levels of psychiatric symptoms, dropout of symptomatic patients, and the high prevalence of alexithymia.

Quelle assistance psychologique pour les couples requérant une aide médicale à la procréation [Which psychological support for couples seeking medical assistance for procreation?]

OBJECTIVES: The objective of our qualitative study was to define modalities of psychological support to be offered to couples seeking medically assisted procreation. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty couples participated in a semi-structured videotaped interview, which touched on themes such as personal and family histories, the couple's relationship, etc. We focused on the "narrative mobility", that is the way in which the couples transmit their personal and family history during the interview and the interviewer's impression that he may or may not share this with the couples. RESULTS: Observed differences in narrative mobility led us to distinguish three groups of couples and to propose various types of psychological support. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This exploratory study, with its interest for the narrative mobility, concerns the couples' capacity to stand back from their own story as responsible interlocutors. We made the hypothesis that this capacity is linked to their capacity to handle their emotional stress, to act as partners to the medical team and to prepare themselves for their future parenthood.

The Analysis of Accounting Multipliers: The NAMEA Approach in the Case of Catalonia

The aim of this paper is the analysis of the Catalan economy (2001) with the use of a National Accounting Matrix with environmental accounts (NAMEA) for the Catalan economy with 2001 data. We will focus on the analysis of the emission multipliers and we will also analyse the impact of a 10% reduction in greenhouse emissions on emission multipliers. This emission-reduction percentage would bring the Catalan economy into compliance with the maximum emissions level allowed by the Kyoto Protocol. We consider three possible scenarios that would allow this goal to be met. First, we will simulate a 10% reduction in regional emissions and a 5% drop in the endogenous income of the multipliers' model (production, factorial and private income). Second, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 10% increase in endogenous income. Finally, we will simulate a 10% reduction in emissions and a 5% increase in endogenous income. Additionally, we will analyse the decomposition of the emission multipliers into own effects, open effects and circular effects to capture the different channels of the emission generation process. Keywords: NAMEA, emission multipliers, Kyoto Protocol.

Structural decomposition analysis and input-output subsystems: An application to Spanish CO2 emissions

Analysis of gas emissions by the input-output subsystem approach provides detailed insight into pollution generation in an economy. Structural decomposition analysis, on the other hand, identifies the factors behind the changes in key variables over time. Extending the input-output subsystem model to account for the changes in these variables reveals the channels by which environmental burdens are caused and transmitted throughout the production system. In this paper we propose a decomposition of the changes in the components of CO2 emissions captured by an input-output subsystems representation. The empirical application is for the Spanish service sector, and the economic and environmental data are for years 1990 and 2000. Our results show that services increased their CO2 emissions mainly because of a rise in emissions generated by non-services to cover the final demand for services. In all service activities, the decomposed effects show an increase in CO2 emissions due to a decrease in emission coefficients (i.e., emissions per unit of output) compensated by an increase in emissions caused both by the input-output coefficients and the rise in demand for services. Finally, large asymmetries exist not only in the quantitative changes in the CO2 emissions of the various services but also in the decomposed effects of these changes. Keywords: structural decomposition analysis, input-output subsystems, CO2 emissions, service sector.

A forensic perspective of the AFL investigation into peptides: an antidoping investigation case study.

BACKGROUND: The World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) is introducing enhancements to doping investigations in its 2015 Code, which include improved sharing of information between antidoping organisations (including sporting bodies) and enhanced accountability of athlete support staff. These additions will improve the control of links between sports doping and organised crime. In February 2013 the Australian Crime Commission released a report that linked several professional sporting codes, professional athletes with links to organised crime, performance enhancing drugs and illicit substances. Following this report the Australian Football League (AFL) partnered the Australian national antidoping organisation to investigate peptide use in Australian football. METHODS: This review compared the model proposed by Marclay, a hypothetical model for anti-doping investigations that proposed a forensic intelligence and analysis approach, to use the forensic capabilities of the AFL investigation to test the model's relevance to an actual case. RESULTS: The investigation uncovered the use of peptides used to enhance athlete performance. The AFL investigation found a high risk of doping where athlete support staff existed in teams with weak corporate governance controls. A further finding included the need for the investigation to provide a timely response in professional team sports that were sensitive to the competition timing. In the case of the AFL the team was sanctioned prior to the finals as an interim outcome for allowing the risk of use of performance-enhancing substances. Doping violation charges are still being considered. DISCUSSION: Antidoping strategies should include the investigation of corporate officers in team doping circumstances, the mandatory recording of all athlete substance use during competition and training phases, the wider sharing of forensic intelligence with non-sporting bodies particularly law enforcement and collaboration between antidoping and sporting organisations in doping investigations. CONCLUSIONS: The AFL investigation illustrated the importance of the 2015 WADA Code changes and highlighted the need for a systematic use of broad forensic intelligence activities in the investigation of doping violations.

Physical and Sensory Disability Strategy and Action Plan 2011-2015 - Summary of the feedback and findings from the public consultation (PDF 248KB)

On 27 January 2011 the Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety (DHSSPS) launched a three month public consultation for a new draft Physical and Sensory Disability Strategy and Action Plan (2011-2015). åÊ The aim of the consultation was to provide the opportunity for a range of different stakeholders (public authorities and organisations, individuals including persons with disabilities and community and voluntary organisations) from across Northern Ireland to give feedback on the suggested priorities and challenges detailed in the document. The Department recognised the need for a new Disability Strategy and Action Plan not least to address new and developing challenges and opportunities. These include: åÊ • Obligations taken by the UK and NI in signing and ratifying the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities; åÊ • New innovations and models of care, support and treatment available within health and social care; åÊ • The current demographic trends and financial constraints being faced by everyone. åÊ åÊ åÊ

The nature of the Cr-C bond: direct estimation of aromaticity in Fischer carbenes

Report for the scientific sojourn at the the Philipps-Universität Marburg, Germany, from september to december 2007. For the first, we employed the Energy-Decomposition Analysis (EDA) to investigate aromaticity on Fischer carbenes as it is related through all the reaction mechanisms studied in my PhD thesis. This powerful tool, compared with other well-known aromaticity indices in the literature like NICS, is useful not only for quantitative results but also to measure the degree of conjugation or hyperconjugation in molecules. Our results showed for the annelated benzenoid systems studied here, that electron density is more concentrated on the outer rings than in the central one. The strain-induced bond localization plays a major role as a driven force to keep the more substituted ring as the less aromatic. The discussion presented in this work was contrasted at different levels of theory to calibrate the method and ensure the consistency of our results. We think these conclusions can also be extended to arene chemistry for explaining aromaticity and regioselectivity reactions found in those systems.In the second work, we have employed the Turbomole program package and density-functionals of the best performance in the state of art, to explore reaction mechanisms in the noble gas chemistry. Particularly, we were interested in compounds of the form H--Ng--Ng--F (where Ng (Noble Gas) = Ar, Kr and Xe) and we investigated the relative stability of these species. Our quantum chemical calculations predict that the dixenon compound HXeXeF has an activation barrier for decomposition of 11 kcal/mol which should be large enough to identify the molecule in a low-temperature matrix. The other noble gases present lower activation barriers and therefore are more labile and difficult to be observable systems experimentally.

Comparison between computational alanine scanning and per-residue binding free energy decomposition for protein-protein association using MM-GBSA: application to the TCR-p-MHC complex.

Recognition by the T-cell receptor (TCR) of immunogenic peptides (p) presented by Class I major histocompatibility complexes (MHC) is the key event in the immune response against virus-infected cells or tumor cells. A study of the 2C TCR/SIYR/H-2K(b) system using a computational alanine scanning and a much faster binding free energy decomposition based on the Molecular Mechanics-Generalized Born Surface Area (MM-GBSA) method is presented. The results show that the TCR-p-MHC binding free energy decomposition using this approach and including entropic terms provides a detailed and reliable description of the interactions between the molecules at an atomistic level. Comparison of the decomposition results with experimentally determined activity differences for alanine mutants yields a correlation of 0.67 when the entropy is neglected and 0.72 when the entropy is taken into account. Similarly, comparison of experimental activities with variations in binding free energies determined by computational alanine scanning yields correlations of 0.72 and 0.74 when the entropy is neglected or taken into account, respectively. Some key interactions for the TCR-p-MHC binding are analyzed and some possible side chains replacements are proposed in the context of TCR protein engineering. In addition, a comparison of the two theoretical approaches for estimating the role of each side chain in the complexation is given, and a new ad hoc approach to decompose the vibrational entropy term into atomic contributions, the linear decomposition of the vibrational entropy (LDVE), is introduced. The latter allows the rapid calculation of the entropic contribution of interesting side chains to the binding. This new method is based on the idea that the most important contributions to the vibrational entropy of a molecule originate from residues that contribute most to the vibrational amplitude of the normal modes. The LDVE approach is shown to provide results very similar to those of the exact but highly computationally demanding method.

Distinction among the puparia of three blowfly species (Diptera: Calliphoridae) frequently found on unburied corpses

Calliphorid larvae are important in the decomposition of carrion. Since these larvae are present in the primary stages of succession on carcasses, they may be important indicators of death time and the movement of corpses in homicide investigations. In this study we examined the morphological differences among puparia of Chrysomya megacephala, C. putoria and Cochliomyia macellaria. Puparia of the three species (N=30, each) were obtained from the F2 generation bred in culture medium at 25° C, and 60% relative humidity on a 12 h photoperiod. The interspecific differences found were related to the conspicuousness of six tubercles located in the region near the posterior spiracles and to the distance between the two peritrema involving the spiracles. The latter were (mean ± SD) 15.2 ± 3.1 mum for C. megacephala, 18.8 ± 2.8 mum for C. putoria and 16.5 ± 3.5 mum for C. macellaria. The results of the present study may be useful in forensic entomology.

Wellposedness of a nonlinear, logarithmic Schrödinger equation of Doebner-Goldin type modeling quantum dissipation

This paper is concerned with the modeling and analysis of quantum dissipation phenomena in the Schrödinger picture. More precisely, we do investigate in detail a dissipative, nonlinear Schrödinger equation somehow accounting for quantum Fokker–Planck effects, and how it is drastically reduced to a simpler logarithmic equation via a nonlinear gauge transformation in such a way that the physics underlying both problems keeps unaltered. From a mathematical viewpoint, this allows for a more achievable analysis regarding the local wellposedness of the initial–boundary value problem. This simplification requires the performance of the polar (modulus–argument) decomposition of the wavefunction, which is rigorously attained (for the first time to the best of our knowledge) under quite reasonable assumptions.