Overview on the Cost-effectiveness of Maritime Safety Policy Instruments

Maritime safety is an issue that has gained a lot of attention in the Baltic Sea area due to the dense maritime traffic and transportation of oil in the area. Lots of effort has been paid to enhance maritime safety in the area. The risk exists that excessive legislation and other requirements mean more costs for limited benefit. In order to utilize both public and private resources efficiently, awareness is required of what kind of costs maritime safety policy instruments cause and whether the costs are in relation to benefits. The aim of this report is to present an overview of the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy instruments focusing on the cost aspect: what kind of costs maritime safety policy causes, to whom, what affects the cost-effectiveness and how cost-effectiveness is studied. The study is based on a literature review and on the interviews of Finnish maritime experts. The results of this study imply that cost-effectiveness is a complicated issue to evaluate. There are no uniform practices for which costs and benefits should be included in the evaluation and how they should be valued. One of the challenges is how to measure costs and benefits during the course of a longer time period. Often a lack of data erodes the reliability of evaluation. In the prevention of maritime accidents, costs typically include investments in ship structures or equipment, as well as maintenance and labor costs. Also large investments may be justifiable if they respectively provide significant improvements to maritime safety. Measures are cost-effective only if they are implemented properly. Costeffectiveness is decreased if a measure causes overlapping or repetitious work. Costeffectiveness is also decreased if the technology isn’t user-friendly or if it is soon replaced with a new technology or another new appliance. In future studies on the cost-effectiveness of maritime safety policy, it is important to acknowledge the dependency between different policy instruments and the uncertainty of the factors affecting cost-effectiveness. The costs of a single measure are rarely relatively significant and the effect of each measure on safety tends to be positive. The challenge is to rank the measures and to find the most effective combination of different policy instruments. The greatest potential offered for the analysis of cost-effectiveness of individual measures is their implementation in clearly defined risk situations, in which different measures are truly alternative to each other. Overall, maritime safety measures do not seem to be considered burdening for the shipping industry in Finland at the moment. Generally actors in the Finnish shipping industry seem to find maintaining a high safety level important and act accordingly.

Mathematics inspired by Darwin. Adaptive dynamics of dispersal and cooperation

In 1859, Charles Darwin published his theory of evolution by natural selection, the process occurring based on fitness benefits and fitness costs at the individual level. Traditionally, evolution has been investigated by biologists, but it has induced mathematical approaches, too. For example, adaptive dynamics has proven to be a very applicable framework to the purpose. Its core concept is the invasion fitness, the sign of which tells whether a mutant phenotype can invade the prevalent phenotype. In this thesis, four real-world applications on evolutionary questions are provided. Inspiration for the first two studies arose from a cold-adapted species, American pika. First, it is studied how the global climate change may affect the evolution of dispersal and viability of pika metapopulations. Based on the results gained here, it is shown that the evolution of dispersal can result in extinction and indeed, evolution of dispersalshould be incorporated into the viability analysis of species living in fragmented habitats. The second study is focused on the evolution of densitydependent dispersal in metapopulations with small habitat patches. It resulted a very surprising unintuitive evolutionary phenomenon, how a non-monotone density-dependent dispersal may evolve. Cooperation is surprisingly common in many levels of life, despite of its obvious vulnerability to selfish cheating. This motivated two applications. First, it is shown that density-dependent cooperative investment can evolve to have a qualitatively different, monotone or non-monotone, form depending on modelling details. The last study investigates the evolution of investing into two public-goods resources. The results suggest one general path by which labour division can arise via evolutionary branching. In addition to applications, two novel methodological derivations of fitness measures in structured metapopulations are given.

Adaptive value of ryegrass biotypes with low-level resistance and susceptible to the herbicide fluazifop and competitive ability with the wheat culture

Ryegrass is the main weed in wheat crop, causing yield loss due to competition by environmental resources. The objectives of this study were to estimate the fitness cost of ryegrass biotypes with low-level resistance and susceptible to fluazifop and to investigate the relative competitive ability of these biotypes between themselves and against the crop. Thus, fitness cost and competitive ability experiments were conducted under greenhouse conditions. For the fitness cost experiments, the low-level resistant ryegrass biotypes and those susceptible to fluazifop were used. For competitive ability, the treatments were arranged in a replacement series, with five proportions of the wheat cultivar FUNDACEP Horizonte and the low-level resistant and susceptible ryegrass biotypes 100:0, 75:25, 50:50, 25:75 and 0:100. Competitive analysis was carried out through diagrams applied to the replacement experiments and use of relative competitiveness indices. Variables evaluated were plant height, in the fitness cost experiment, and leaf area and shoot dry biomass in both experiments. The ryegrass biotypes show overall similar fitness cost and competitive ability. The wheat cultivar FUNDACEP Horizonte is superior in competitive ability to the ryegrass biotype with low-level resistance and equivalent to the susceptible biotype.

Glyphosate Effectiveness in the Control of Macrophytes Under a Greenhouse Condition

The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of glyphosate, as Rodeo(r) formulation, to control Eichhornia crassipes, Pistia stratiotes, Salvinia molesta, Salvinia herzogii and Urochloa subquadripara, under greenhouse conditions. The doses assessed were (480, 960, 1440, 1920, 2400, 2880, 3360 and 3840 g ha-1 of glyphosate) with 0.5% of the Aterbane(r) BR surfactant and a control, with no herbicide application. All experiments were conducted in a completely randomized experimental design with ten replications. Applications were carried out by precision backpack sprayer at a CO2 constant pressure of 25 psi and spray solution consumption of 200 L ha-1. Product effectiveness was determined by assessing the growth inhibitions and phytotoxicity signals during the periods of 3, 7, 15, 21, 30 and 45 days after application (DAA). At 45 DAA, the highest glyphosate dose (3840 g ha-1) displayed 100% effectiveness for all four macrophyte species. Under greenhouse conditions, the glyphosate in formulation Rodeo(r) with 0.5% of Aterbarne(r) BR surfactant showed excellent effectiveness, inhibiting the growth of the floating aquatic macrophytes. This procedure can be included on the tillage plans for these species.

Effectiveness of Diquat, Copper Hydroxide, Copper Oxychloride and their Association in Control of Submerged Macrophytes Ceratophyllum demersum

The aims of this study were to evaluate the effectiveness of diquat, copper hydroxide, copper oxychloride and their associations diquat + 0.1% copper oxychloride and diquat + 0.1% copper hydroxide to control Cerathophyllum demersum. Therefore, the concentrations used were 0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 1.0 and 1.5 mg L-1 oxychloride and copper hydroxide and 0.2, 0.4, 0.8 and 1.2 mg L-1 diquat and their associations with 0.1% copper oxychloride and 0.1% copper and a control hydroxide. The experimental design was completely randomized with ten replications for 45 days. For evaluation we used a scale of 0-100% control of notes and rated the weight (g) and length (cm) of pointers at the end of the trial period. Diquat showed 100% efficacy at 30 DAA, associations in 21 DAA and copper sources promoted regrowth of C. demersum. Diquat and its associations were more effective in controlling C. demersum. The use of herbicide in combination with a copper source is more efficient for the control of submerged weeds because it potentiates the effect of the herbicide in weed control

Adaptive control of Hydraulic Drive

Adaptive control systems are one of the most significant research directions of modern control theory. It is well known that every mechanical appliance’s behavior noticeably depends on environmental changes, functioning-mode parameter changes and changes in technical characteristics of internal functional devices. An adaptive controller involved in control process allows reducing an influence of such changes. In spite of this such type of control methods is applied seldom due to specifics of a controller designing. The work presented in this paper shows the design process of the adaptive controller built by Lyapunov’s function method for the Hydraulic Drive. The calculation needed and the modeling were conducting with MATLAB® software including Simulink® and Symbolic Math Toolbox™ etc. In the work there was applied the Jacobi matrix linearization of the object’s mathematical model and derivation of the suitable reference models based on Newton’s characteristic polynomial. The intelligent adaptive to nonlinearities algorithm for solving Lyapunov’s equation was developed. Developed algorithm works properly but considered plant is not met requirement of functioning with. The results showed confirmation that adaptive systems application significantly increases possibilities in use devices and might be used for correction a system’s behavior dynamics.

Tropical inselbergs: habitat types, adaptive strategies and diversity patterns

Inselbergs are isolated rock outcrops that rise abruptly above the surrounding plains. Granitic and gneissic inselbergs are geologically and geomorphologically old and occur throughout a broad spectrum of climatic zones. They form microclimatically and edaphically dry growth sites that support a highly specialized vegetation. Based on physiognomic criteria a number of habitat types can be distinguished that are widespread on inselbergs (e.g. ephemeral flush vegetation, monocotyledonous mats, rock pools). Three hot spots of global inselberg plant diversity can be identified which are both rich in species and endemics: a) southeastern Brazil, b) Madagascar and c) southwestern Australia.

Effectiveness of plant growth promoting rhizobacteria in facilitating lead and nutrient uptake by little seed canary grass

We investigated the effectiveness of Nitroxin inoculation on lead (Pb) and nutrient uptakes by little seed canary grass. The factors tested included inoculation (or not) with Nitroxin and different soil concentrations of Pb (0, 200, 400 and 800mgPbkg-1 soil). Increasing soil concentrations of Pb decreased stem, leaf and root dry weights. Shoot phosphorus concentrations increased in parallel with increasing soil Pb concentrations. Nitroxin inoculation did not alter the phosphorus concentration of the roots. The Pb translocation factor was >1 in inoculated treatments in the Pb soil concentration range of 200 to 400mgkg-1; the translocation factor for 800mgPbkg‑1 with no inoculation of Nitroxin was, however, <1. Our results indicated that the Pb bioaccumulation factor for little seed canary grass was <1, indicating that it is a Pb excluding plant.

Adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo and Bayesian filtering for state space models

This thesis is concerned with the state and parameter estimation in state space models. The estimation of states and parameters is an important task when mathematical modeling is applied to many different application areas such as the global positioning systems, target tracking, navigation, brain imaging, spread of infectious diseases, biological processes, telecommunications, audio signal processing, stochastic optimal control, machine learning, and physical systems. In Bayesian settings, the estimation of states or parameters amounts to computation of the posterior probability density function. Except for a very restricted number of models, it is impossible to compute this density function in a closed form. Hence, we need approximation methods. A state estimation problem involves estimating the states (latent variables) that are not directly observed in the output of the system. In this thesis, we use the Kalman filter, extended Kalman filter, Gauss–Hermite filters, and particle filters to estimate the states based on available measurements. Among these filters, particle filters are numerical methods for approximating the filtering distributions of non-linear non-Gaussian state space models via Monte Carlo. The performance of a particle filter heavily depends on the chosen importance distribution. For instance, inappropriate choice of the importance distribution can lead to the failure of convergence of the particle filter algorithm. In this thesis, we analyze the theoretical Lᵖ particle filter convergence with general importance distributions, where p ≥2 is an integer. A parameter estimation problem is considered with inferring the model parameters from measurements. For high-dimensional complex models, estimation of parameters can be done by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. In its operation, the MCMC method requires the unnormalized posterior distribution of the parameters and a proposal distribution. In this thesis, we show how the posterior density function of the parameters of a state space model can be computed by filtering based methods, where the states are integrated out. This type of computation is then applied to estimate parameters of stochastic differential equations. Furthermore, we compute the partial derivatives of the log-posterior density function and use the hybrid Monte Carlo and scaled conjugate gradient methods to infer the parameters of stochastic differential equations. The computational efficiency of MCMC methods is highly depend on the chosen proposal distribution. A commonly used proposal distribution is Gaussian. In this kind of proposal, the covariance matrix must be well tuned. To tune it, adaptive MCMC methods can be used. In this thesis, we propose a new way of updating the covariance matrix using the variational Bayesian adaptive Kalman filter algorithm.

Adaptive Dynamics of Resource Specialization

Ecological specialization in resource utilization has various facades ranging from nutritional resources via host use of parasites or phytophagous insects to local adaptation in different habitats. Therefore, the evolution of specialization affects the evolution of most other traits, which makes it one of the core issues in the theory of evolution. Hence, the evolution of specialization has gained enormous amounts of research interest, starting already from Darwin’s Origin of species in 1859. Vast majority of the theoretical studies has, however, focused on the mathematically most simple case with well-mixed populations and equilibrium dynamics. This thesis explores the possibilities to extend the evolutionary analysis of resource usage to spatially heterogeneous metapopulation models and to models with non-equilibrium dynamics. These extensions are enabled by the recent advances in the field of adaptive dynamics, which allows for a mechanistic derivation of the invasion-fitness function based on the ecological dynamics. In the evolutionary analyses, special focus is set to the case with two substitutable renewable resources. In this case, the most striking questions are, whether a generalist species is able to coexist with the two specialist species, and can such trimorphic coexistence be attained through natural selection starting from a monomorphic population. This is shown possible both due to spatial heterogeneity and due to non-equilibrium dynamics. In addition, it is shown that chaotic dynamics may sometimes inflict evolutionary suicide or cyclic evolutionary dynamics. Moreover, the relations between various ecological parameters and evolutionary dynamics are investigated. Especially, the relation between specialization and dispersal propensity turns out to be counter-intuitively non-monotonous. This observation served as inspiration to the analysis of joint evolution of dispersal and specialization, which may provide the most natural explanation to the observed coexistence of specialist and generalist species.

From statin efficacy to everyday effectiveness: Studying the gap in between.

Statins are indicated for preventing cardiovascular disease events. Patients with diabetes have a risk of major cardiovascular events double the risk of their peers without diabetes. Thus, clinical treatment guidelines recommend statins for the management of diabetic dyslipidemia. The evidence base for statin use in cardiovascular disease derives from the randomized controlled statin trials designed to prove statin efficacy under ideal conditions, among a homogenous study population meeting strict trial eligibility criteria. This thesis was implemented as four pharmacoepidemiological statin studies using register data on realworld statin users. The overall purpose was to evaluate the trends, patterns and effectiveness of statin use in everyday life. More specifically, nationwide secular trends in statin use in Finland were analysed, especially among patient groups which had been underrepresented in the statin trials. Furthermore, the benchmarking statin trials in diabetes, the Heart Protection Study and the Collaborative Atorvastatin Diabetes Study, were evaluated for their representativeness for real-world diabetes care with the emphasis placed on adherence to statin use. The association between good adherence and the incidence of major cardiovascular events in the real-world was further investigated in diabetes. These studies demonstrate that statin initiations increased from 1995 to 2005 in Finland. The increase was most pronounced among those aged at least 75 years and was observed already before the publication of rigorous trial data conducted in elderly subjects. Thus, statins seem to have been initiated in clinical practice also going beyond the strict trial eligibility criteria. Nonetheless, low adherence to statin use among the real-world patients with diabetes was found not only to limit the representativeness of the trials for clinical care but also to attenuate in all likelihood their benefits in the real-world. In fact, good adherence to statin use was found to associate with a decreased risk for major cardiovascular events in patients with diabetes. In conclusion, these studies highlight the importance of good adherence to statin use in clinical practice in order to obtain the full therapeutic value demonstrated in the statin trials. Simply increasing the number of statin users will not alone suffice in sharing our common resources appropriately.

Effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy using non-brand name drugs in Brazil

In Brazil, HIV-infected individuals receive drugs (including non-brand name drugs which comprise locally produced generics and drugs that have not been tested in bioequivalence trials) free of charge from the government. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where non-brand drugs are widely used. For this purpose, we estimated the proportion of subjects with virologic failure (plasma HIV viral load greater than 400 copies/mL at 6 months after initiation of treatment). This was a retrospective cohort study of drug-naive HIV-infected subjects who initiated HAART. Subjects were included in the analysis if they were 18 years of age or older, were treatment naive, started HAART with a minimum of 3 drugs, and had available information on blood plasma HIV-1 viral load after 6 months on therapy. All subjects used antiretrovirals in dosing regimens recommended by the Brazilian National Advisory Committee for Antiretroviral Therapy. Chart reviews were conducted in three settings: at two public health outpatient units, at one clinical trial unit and at one private office. No comparisons of the effectiveness of non-brand name with the effectiveness of brand name drugs were made. We present results for 485 patients; of these, 354 (73%), 55 (11%), and 76 (16%) were seen at the public health outpatient units, private office, and clinical trial unit, respectively. Virologic failure was observed in 119 (25%) of the subjects. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of HAART in a setting where non-brand name drugs are widely used.

Comparison of the effectiveness of initial combined antiretroviral therapy with nelfinavir or efavirenz at a university-based outpatient service in Brazil

Since there are some concerns about the effectiveness of highly active antiretroviral therapy in developing countries, we compared the initial combination antiretroviral therapy with zidovudine and lamivudine plus either nelfinavir or efavirenz at a university-based outpatient service in Brazil. This was a retrospective comparative cohort study carried out in a tertiary level hospital. A total of 194 patients receiving either nelfinavir or efavirenz were identified through our electronic database search, but only 126 patients met the inclusion criteria. Patients were included if they were older than 18 years old, naive for antiretroviral therapy, and had at least 1 follow-up visit after starting the antiretroviral regimen. Fifty-one of the included patients were receiving a nelfinavir-based regimen and 75 an efavirenz-based regimen as outpatients. Antiretroviral therapy was prescribed to all patients according to current guidelines. By intention-to-treat (missing/switch = failure), after a 12-month period, 65% of the patients in the efavirenz group reached a viral load <400 copies/mL compared to 41% of the patients in the nelfinavir group (P = 0.01). The mean CD4 cell count increase after a 12-month period was also greater in the efavirenz group (195 x 10(6) cells/L) than in the nelfinavir group (119 x 10(6) cells/L; P = 0.002). The efavirenz-based regimen was superior compared to the nelfinavir-based regimen. The low response rate in the nelfinavir group might be partially explained by the difficulty of using a regimen requiring a higher patient compliance (12 vs 3 pills a day) in a developing country.