Path-dependence, expectativas e regulação econômica : elementos de análise a partir de uma perspectiva pós-keynesiana

O artigo busca fazer uma relação entre a ocorrência de path-dependence, a natureza expectacional do investimento e as flutuações econômicas, a partir de um referencial pós-keynesiano de análise. Em um ambiente não-ergódico, a fim de que o sistema tenha uma relativa estabilidade no tempo, a regulação econômica requer muito mais do que simples ajustamentos incrementais. Tornam-se necessárias, e possíveis, modificações qualitativas do sistema econômico. Tais modificações são analisadas a partir do conceito de bifurcação.

Towards Emotional Interaction: Using Movies to Automatically Learn Users' Emotional States

The HCI community is actively seeking novel methodologies to gain insight into the user’s experience during interaction with both the application and the content. We propose an emotional recognition engine capable of automatically recognizing a set of human emotional states using psychophysiological measures of the autonomous nervous system, including galvanic skin response, respiration, and heart rate. A novel pattern recognition system, based on discriminant analysis and support vector machine classifiers is trained using movies’ scenes selected to induce emotions ranging from the positive to the negative valence dimension, including happiness, anger, disgust, sadness, and fear. In this paper we introduce an emotion recognition system and evaluate its accuracy by presenting the results of an experiment conducted with three physiologic sensors.

Stochastic effects in a seasonally forced epidemic model

The interplay of seasonality, the system's nonlinearities and intrinsic stochasticity, is studied for a seasonally forced susceptible-exposed-infective-recovered stochastic model. The model is explored in the parameter region that corresponds to childhood infectious diseases such as measles. The power spectrum of the stochastic fluctuations around the attractors of the deterministic system that describes the model in the thermodynamic limit is computed analytically and validated by stochastic simulations for large system sizes. Size effects are studied through additional simulations. Other effects such as switching between coexisting attractors induced by stochasticity often mentioned in the literature as playing an important role in the dynamics of childhood infectious diseases are also investigated. The main conclusion is that stochastic amplification, rather than these effects, is the key ingredient to understand the observed incidence patterns.

Extreme Value Theory versus traditional GARCH approaches applied to financial data: a comparative evaluation

Although stock prices fluctuate, the variations are relatively small and are frequently assumed to be normal distributed on a large time scale. But sometimes these fluctuations can become determinant, especially when unforeseen large drops in asset prices are observed that could result in huge losses or even in market crashes. The evidence shows that these events happen far more often than would be expected under the generalized assumption of normal distributed financial returns. Thus it is crucial to properly model the distribution tails so as to be able to predict the frequency and magnitude of extreme stock price returns. In this paper we follow the approach suggested by McNeil and Frey (2000) and combine the GARCH-type models with the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate the tails of three financial index returns DJI,FTSE 100 and NIKKEI 225 representing three important financial areas in the world. Our results indicate that EVT-based conditional quantile estimates are much more accurate than those from conventional AR-GARCH models assuming normal or Student’s t-distribution innovations when doing out-of-sample estimation (within the insample estimation, this is so for the right tail of the distribution of returns).

The US actuarial balance model for the pay-as-you-go system and its application to Spain

The aim of this paper is to formulate an approximation of the US actuarial balance model and apply it to the Spanish public retirement pension system under various scenarios in order to determine a consistent indicator of the system's financial state comparable to those used by the most advanced social security systems. This will enable us to answer the question as to whether there is any justification for reforming the pension system in Spain. This type of actuarial balance uses projections to show future challenges to the financial side of the pension system deriving basically from ageing, the projected increase in longevity and fluctuations in economic activity. If one is compiled periodically it can provide various indicators to help depoliticize the management of the pay-as-you-go system by bringing the planning horizons of politicians and the system itself closer together.

Contributos para a caracterização de um perfil de competências dos técnicos de radiologia na valência de ressonância magnética

Mestrado em Intervenção Sócio-Organizacional na Saúde - Área de especialização: Políticas de Administração e Gestão de Serviços de Saúde.

Fatores determinantes do (in)sucesso de clínicas/gabinetes particulares com a valência de terapia da fala nos distritos de Porto e Aveiro

A presente dissertação apresenta o resultado de uma pesquisa realizada, através da recolha de dados, nos distritos do Porto e Aveiro, onde foram analisados os fatores determinantes do (in)sucesso estratégico de clínicas/gabinetes (CG) particulares com a valência de terapia da fala (TF). Inicia com a apresentação de algumas considerações conceptuais relativas à empresa, organização e inovação. De seguida, são descritos os principais passos a dar em Portugal para a constituição de uma empresa e é feita uma abordagem aos temas da viabilidade estratégica de um projeto e do conceito de plano de negócios. A parte teórica do presente projeto de investigação encerra com os fatores de sucesso e insucesso empresarial descritos na literatura. Neste trabalho, procura-se analisar as principais determinantes de sobrevivência das novas empresas ligadas à área da TF. Para tal, procedeu-se à recolha de dados junto de proprietários e/ou gestores de CG particulares com TF, nos distritos de Porto e Aveiro, selecionados a partir da base de dados da Entidade Reguladora da Saúde (ERS), das Páginas Amarelas Online e da Internet com as palavraschave: “clínicas, gabinetes, terapia da fala”. Os resultados estatisticamente tratados e analisados evidenciam a importância dos seguintes fatores como estatisticamente significativos para o sucesso de uma CG privada com TF nos distritos de Porto e Aveiro: maior antiguidade da CG, maior número de utentes, de concorrentes e de TF a trabalhar, assim como a realização de rastreios na área da TF. Fatores como: proprietário com formação na área da gestão, maior número de valências, publicidade e acessibilidades na CG, parecem contribuir para o aumento das hipóteses de sobrevivência de CG particulares com TF nos distritos de Porto e Aveiro, ainda que não sejam estatisticamente significativos. Em contrapartida, a falta de um plano de negócios parece ser um fator que influencia o insucesso destas CG.

Efeito do calçado MBT, na variação do centro de pressão, durante o equilíbrio estático

Objectivo: Analisar a variação do centro de pressão (CP) com a utilização do calçado MBT, no equilíbrio estático a curto e longo prazo. Metodologia: A amostra é constituída por dois grupos, experimental e controlo. O estudo consistiu em dois momentos de avaliação, na recolha os indivíduos estão sobre a plataforma, estáticos. Os dados recolhidos foram a área, distância e velocidade das oscilações do CP. Resultados: As variáveis estudadas estão aumentadas com o uso das MBT. A longo prazo não se verificou diferenças significativas entre os grupos. Conclusão: As sapatilhas MBT proporcionam o aumento das oscilações do CP a curto prazo.

Os swaps de taxas de juro como instrumentos de cobertura de risco nas demonstrações financeiras

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Análise de clusters e volatilidade de índices de acções

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Recursos hidrominerais dos Açores: hidrogeologia e avaliação do potencial sócioeconómico

Tese de Doutoramento, Geologia (Hidrogeologia), 17 de Dezembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Temporal and spatial variability of fin whale's (Balaenoptera physalus) distribution in the Pelagos Sanctuary: Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

Dissertação de Mestrado, Estudos Integrados dos Oceanos, 20 de Março de 2014, Universidade dos Açores.

Topological Complexity and Predictability in the Dynamics of a Tumor Growth Model with Shilnikov's Chaos

Dynamical systems modeling tumor growth have been investigated to determine the dynamics between tumor and healthy cells. Recent theoretical investigations indicate that these interactions may lead to different dynamical outcomes, in particular to homoclinic chaos. In the present study, we analyze both topological and dynamical properties of a recently characterized chaotic attractor governing the dynamics of tumor cells interacting with healthy tissue cells and effector cells of the immune system. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences from one-dimensional iterated maps identified in the dynamics, focusing on the effects of inactivation interactions between both effector and tumor cells. The previous analyses are complemented with the computation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, the fractal dimension and the predictability of the chaotic attractors. Our results show that the inactivation rate of effector cells by the tumor cells has an important effect on the dynamics of the system. The increase of effector cells inactivation involves an inverse Feigenbaum (i.e. period-halving bifurcation) scenario, which results in the stabilization of the dynamics and in an increase of dynamics predictability. Our analyses also reveal that, at low inactivation rates of effector cells, tumor cells undergo strong, chaotic fluctuations, with the dynamics being highly unpredictable. Our findings are discussed in the context of tumor cells potential viability.

New mitochondrial and nuclear evidences support recent demographic expansion and an atypical phylogeographic pattern in the Spittlebug Philaenus spumarius (Hemiptera, Aphrophoridae)

Copyright: © 2014 Rodrigues et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Optoelectronic properties of a-Si(1-x)C(x)H films grown in hydrogen diluted silane-methane plasma

This work reports on the optoelectronic properties and device application of hydrogenated amorphous silicon carbide (a-Si(1-x)C(x):H) films grown by plasma-enhanced chemical vapour deposition (PECVD). The films with an optical bandgap ranging from about 1.8 to 2.0 eV were deposited in hydrogen diluted silane-methane plasma by varying the radio frequency power. Several n-i-p structures with an intrinsic a-Si(1-x)C(x):H layer of different optical gaps were also fabricated. The optimized devices exhibited a diode ideality factor of 1.4-1.8, and a leakage current of 190-470 pA/cm(2) at -5 V. The density of deep defect states in a-Si(1-x)C(x):H was estimated from the transient dark current measurements and correlated with the optical bandgap and carbon content. Urbach energies for the valence band tail were also determined by analyzing the spectral response within sub-bandgap energy range. (C) 2010 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim