GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

The chemical oxygen demand / total volatile acids ratio as an anaerobic treatability indicator for landfill leachates

In some operational circumstances a fast evaluation of landfill leachate anaerobic treatability is necessary, and neither Biochemical Methane Potential nor BOD/COD ratio are fast enough. Looking for a fast indicator, this work evaluated the anaerobic treatability of landfill leachate from São Carlos-SP (Brazil) in a pilot scale Anaerobic Sequence Batch Biofilm Reactor (AnSBBR). The experiment was conducted at ambient temperature in the landfill area. After the acclimation, at a second stage of operation, the AnSBBR presented efficiency above 70%, in terms of COD removal, utilizing landfill leachate without water dilution, with an inlet COD of about 11,000 mg.L-1, a TVA/COD ratio of approximately 0.6 and reaction time equal to 7 days. To evaluate the landfill leachate biodegradability variation over time, temporal profiles of concentration were performed in the AnSBBR. The landfill leachate anaerobic biodegradability was verified to have a direct and strong relationship to the TVA/COD ratio. For a TVA/CODTotal ratio lower than 0.20, the biodegradability was considered low, for ratios between 0.20 and 0.40 it was considered medium, and above 0.40 it was considered high.

An Efficient Scheduling Scheme For On-Demand Lightpath Reservations In Reconfigurable WDM Optical Networks

We propose an efficient scheduling scheme that optimizes advance-reserved lightpath services in reconfigurable WDM networks. A re-optimization approach is devised to reallocate network resources for dynamic service demands while keeping determined schedule unchanged.

Hybrid Water Demand Forecasting Model Associating Artificial Neural Network with Fourier Series

This paper addressed the problem of water-demand forecasting for real-time operation of water supply systems. The present study was conducted to identify the best fit model using hourly consumption data from the water supply system of Araraquara, Sa approximate to o Paulo, Brazil. Artificial neural networks (ANNs) were used in view of their enhanced capability to match or even improve on the regression model forecasts. The ANNs used were the multilayer perceptron with the back-propagation algorithm (MLP-BP), the dynamic neural network (DAN2), and two hybrid ANNs. The hybrid models used the error produced by the Fourier series forecasting as input to the MLP-BP and DAN2, called ANN-H and DAN2-H, respectively. The tested inputs for the neural network were selected literature and correlation analysis. The results from the hybrid models were promising, DAN2 performing better than the tested MLP-BP models. DAN2-H, identified as the best model, produced a mean absolute error (MAE) of 3.3 L/s and 2.8 L/s for training and test set, respectively, for the prediction of the next hour, which represented about 12% of the average consumption. The best forecasting model for the next 24 hours was again DAN2-H, which outperformed other compared models, and produced a MAE of 3.1 L/s and 3.0 L/s for training and test set respectively, which represented about 12% of average consumption. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000177. (C) 2012 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolandia Hospital/Unicamp

Objective: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. Methods: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the Sao Joao da Boa Vista Administrative Region). Results: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. Conclusion: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolandia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

The uncertain consequences of transferring bacterial strains between laboratories - rpoS instability as an example

Abstract Background Microbiological studies frequently involve exchanges of strains between laboratories and/or stock centers. The integrity of exchanged strains is vital for archival reasons and to ensure reproducible experimental results. For at least 50 years, one of the most common means of shipping bacteria was by inoculating bacterial samples in agar stabs. Long-term cultures in stabs exhibit genetic instabilities and one common instability is in rpoS. The sigma factor RpoS accumulates in response to several stresses and in the stationary phase. One consequence of RpoS accumulation is the competition with the vegetative sigma factor σ70. Under nutrient limiting conditions mutations in rpoS or in genes that regulate its expression tend to accumulate. Here, we investigate whether short-term storage and mailing of cultures in stabs results in genetic heterogeneity. Results We found that samples of the E. coli K-12 strain MC4100TF exchanged on three separate occasions by mail between our laboratories became heterogeneous. Reconstruction studies indicated that LB-stabs exhibited mutations previously found in GASP studies in stationary phase LB broth. At least 40% of reconstructed stocks and an equivalent proportion of actually mailed stock contained these mutations. Mutants with low RpoS levels emerged within 7 days of incubation in the stabs. Sequence analysis of ten of these segregants revealed that they harboured each of three different rpoS mutations. These mutants displayed the classical phenotypes of bacteria lacking rpoS. The genetic stability of MC4100TF was also tested in filter disks embedded in glycerol. Under these conditions, GASP mutants emerge only after a 3-week period. We also confirm that the intrinsic high RpoS level in MC4100TF is mainly due to the presence of an IS1 insertion in rssB. Conclusions Given that many E. coli strains contain high RpoS levels similar to MC4100TF, the integrity of such strains during transfers and storage is questionable. Variations in important collections may be due to storage-transfer related issues. These results raise important questions on the integrity of bacterial archives and transferred strains, explain variation like in the ECOR collection between laboratories and indicate a need for the development of better methods of strain transfer.

Development of an integrative cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis: demand analysis, program description, and acceptability

Abstract Background Tobacco and cannabis use are strongly interrelated, but current national and international cessation programs typically focus on one substance, and address the other substance either only marginally or not at all. This study aimed to identify the demand for, and describe the development and content of, the first integrative group cessation program for co-smokers of cigarettes and cannabis. Methods First, a preliminary study using expert interviews, user focus groups with (ex-)smokers, and an online survey was conducted to investigate the demand for, and potential content of, an integrative smoking cessation program (ISCP) for tobacco and cannabis co-smokers. This study revealed that both experts and co-smokers considered an ISCP to be useful but expected only modest levels of readiness for participation.Based on the findings of the preliminary study, an interdisciplinary expert team developed a course concept and a recruitment strategy. The developed group cessation program is based on current treatment techniques (such as motivational interviewing, cognitive behavioural therapy, and self-control training) and structured into six course sessions.The program was evaluated regarding its acceptability among participants and course instructors. Results Both the participants and course instructors evaluated the course positively. Participants and instructors especially appreciated the group discussions and the modules that were aimed at developing personal strategies that could be applied during simultaneous cessation of tobacco and cannabis, such as dealing with craving, withdrawal, and high-risk situations. Conclusions There is a clear demand for a double cessation program for co-users of cigarettes and cannabis, and the first group cessation program tailored for these users has been developed and evaluated for acceptability. In the near future, the feasibility of the program will be evaluated. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN15248397

A study of pent-up demand in ophthalmology: Divinolândia Hospital/Unicamp

OBJECTIVE: To assess the waiting time for eye care identifying the number of patients with each complaint; to investigate how the waiting time may worsen the patient's condition; to check the screening of urgent cases for effectiveness; and to devise means of increasing the medical-surgical care capacity. METHODS: A retrospective descriptive survey was conducted using data obtained on 12 occasions during collaborative team visits to provide eyecare services. These initiatives were designed to decrease the waiting time and to treat urgent cases that occurred on each occasion; eyecare services were provided every Saturday, in the period from June to August 2006, in 16 cities of the region covered by Conderg (Consortium for the Development of the São João da Boa Vista Administrative Region). RESULTS: Referrals used 1,743 (87.1%) of the 2,000 places available. The most frequent diagnoses were refractive errors, with 683 cases, corresponding to 39.1% of the total, followed by cataracts, with 296 cases, corresponding to 20.9%. Of the 238 surgeries indicated, 54.6% were phakectomies. Thirty-five (2.0%) cases were considered urgent. CONCLUSION: The most common diagnoses made during the team visits to manage the excess demand for eyecare were refractive errors and cataracts, which, together, accounted for the majority of the cases. The Divinolândia Hospital has the necessary human and material resources to meet the demand left unattended by the local SUS network. Immediate referral of urgent cases by the primary units' screeners proved effective.

Accessibility and demand at an Emergency Care Unit: the user's perspective

AIM: To analyze the search for Emergency Care (EC) in the Western Health District of Ribeirão Preto (São Paulo), in order to identify the reasons why users turn to these services in situations that are not characterized as urgencies and emergencies. METHODS: A qualitative and descriptive study was undertaken. A guiding script was applied to 23 EC users, addressing questions related to health service accessibility and welcoming, problem solving, reason to visit the EC and care comprehensiveness. RESULTS: The subjects reported that, at the Primary Health Care services, receiving care and scheduling consultations took a long time and that the opening hours of these services coincide with their work hours. At the EC service, access to technologies and medicines was easier. CONCLUSION: Primary health care services have been unable to turn into the entry door to the health system, being replaced by emergency services, putting a significant strain on these services' capacity.

Strong iron demand during hypoxia-induced erythropoiesis is associated with down-regulation of iron-related proteins and myoglobin in human skeletal muscle

[EN] Iron is essential for oxygen transport because it is incorporated in the heme of the oxygen-binding proteins hemoglobin and myoglobin. An interaction between iron homeostasis and oxygen regulation is further suggested during hypoxia, in which hemoglobin and myoglobin syntheses have been reported to increase. This study gives new insights into the changes in iron content and iron-oxygen interactions during enhanced erythropoiesis by simultaneously analyzing blood and muscle samples in humans exposed to 7 to 9 days of high altitude hypoxia (HA). HA up-regulates iron acquisition by erythroid cells, mobilizes body iron, and increases hemoglobin concentration. However, contrary to our hypothesis that muscle iron proteins and myoglobin would also be up-regulated during HA, this study shows that HA lowers myoglobin expression by 35% and down-regulates iron-related proteins in skeletal muscle, as evidenced by decreases in L-ferritin (43%), transferrin receptor (TfR; 50%), and total iron content (37%). This parallel decrease in L-ferritin and TfR in HA occurs independently of increased hypoxia-inducible factor 1 (HIF-1) mRNA levels and unchanged binding activity of iron regulatory proteins, but concurrently with increased ferroportin mRNA levels, suggesting enhanced iron export. Thus, in HA, the elevated iron requirement associated with enhanced erythropoiesis presumably elicits iron mobilization and myoglobin down-modulation, suggesting an altered muscle oxygen homeostasis.

Significance of non‐sinking particulate organic carbon and dark CO2 fixation to heterotrophic carbon demand in the mesopelagic northeast Atlantic

[EN] It is generally assumed that sinking particulate organic carbon (POC) constitutes the main source of organic carbon supply to the deep ocean's food webs. However, a major discrepancy between the rates of sinking POC supply (collected with sediment traps) and the prokaryotic organic carbon demand (the total amount of carbon required to sustain the heterotrophic metabolism of the prokaryotes; i.e., production plus respiration, PCD) of deep-water communities has been consistently reported for the dark realm of the global ocean. While the amount of sinking POC flux declines exponentially with depth, the concentration of suspended, buoyant non-sinking POC (nsPOC; obtained with oceanographic bottles) exhibits only small variations with depth in the (sub)tropical Northeast Atlantic. Based on available data for the North Atlantic we show here that the sinking POC flux would contribute only 4–12% of the PCD in the mesopelagic realm (depending on the primary production rate in surface waters). The amount of nsPOC potentially available to heterotrophic prokaryotes in the mesopelagic realm can be partly replenished by dark dissolved inorganic carbon fixation contributing between 12% to 72% to the PCD daily. Taken together, there is evidence that the mesopelagic microheterotrophic biota is more dependent on the nsPOC pool than on the sinking POC supply. Hence, the enigmatic major mismatch between the organic carbon demand of the deep-water heterotrophic microbiota and the POC supply rates might be substantially smaller by including the potentially available nsPOC and its autochthonous production in oceanic carbon cycling models.

A GIS based model for solving the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions

[EN] In this paper, we have used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to solve the planar Huff problem considering different demand distributions and forbidden regions. Most of the papers connected with the competitive location problems consider that the demand is aggregated in a finite set of points. In other few cases, the models suppose that the demand is distributed along the feasible region according to a functional form, mainly a uniform distribution. In this case, in addition to the discrete and uniform demand distributions we have considered that the demand is represented by a population surface model, that is, a raster map where each pixel has associated a value corresponding to the population living in the area that it covers...