A Fuzzy ARTMAP Nonparametric Probability Estimator For Nonstationary Pattern Recognition Problem

An incremental, nonparametric probability estimation procedure using the fuzzy ARTMAP neural network is introduced. In slow-learning mode, fuzzy ARTMAP searches for patterns of data on which to build ever more accurate estimates. In max-nodes mode, the network initially learns a fixed number of categories, and weights are then adjusted gradually.

An Integrated Neural Network-Event-Related Potentials Model of Temporal and Probability Context Effects on Event Categorization

We present a neural network that adapts and integrates several preexisting or new modules to categorize events in short term memory (STM), encode temporal order in working memory, evaluate timing and probability context in medium and long term memory. The model shows how processed contextual information modulates event recognition and categorization, focal attention and incentive motivation. The model is based on a compendium of Event Related Potentials (ERPs) and behavioral results either collected by the authors or compiled from the classical ERP literature. Its hallmark is, at the functional level, the interplay of memory registers endowed with widely different dynamical ranges, and at the structural level, the attempt to relate the different modules to known anatomical structures.

Financial modelling with 2-EPT probability density functions

The class of all Exponential-Polynomial-Trigonometric (EPT) functions is classical and equal to the Euler-d’Alembert class of solutions of linear differential equations with constant coefficients. The class of non-negative EPT functions defined on [0;1) was discussed in Hanzon and Holland (2010) of which EPT probability density functions are an important subclass. EPT functions can be represented as ceAxb, where A is a square matrix, b a column vector and c a row vector where the triple (A; b; c) is the minimal realization of the EPT function. The minimal triple is only unique up to a basis transformation. Here the class of 2-EPT probability density functions on R is defined and shown to be closed under a variety of operations. The class is also generalised to include mixtures with the pointmass at zero. This class coincides with the class of probability density functions with rational characteristic functions. It is illustrated that the Variance Gamma density is a 2-EPT density under a parameter restriction. A discrete 2-EPT process is a process which has stochastically independent 2-EPT random variables as increments. It is shown that the distribution of the minimum and maximum of such a process is an EPT density mixed with a pointmass at zero. The Laplace Transform of these distributions correspond to the discrete time Wiener-Hopf factors of the discrete time 2-EPT process. A distribution of daily log-returns, observed over the period 1931-2011 from a prominent US index, is approximated with a 2-EPT density function. Without the non-negativity condition, it is illustrated how this problem is transformed into a discrete time rational approximation problem. The rational approximation software RARL2 is used to carry out this approximation. The non-negativity constraint is then imposed via a convex optimisation procedure after the unconstrained approximation. Sufficient and necessary conditions are derived to characterise infinitely divisible EPT and 2-EPT functions. Infinitely divisible 2-EPT density functions generate 2-EPT Lévy processes. An assets log returns can be modelled as a 2-EPT Lévy process. Closed form pricing formulae are then derived for European Options with specific times to maturity. Formulae for discretely monitored Lookback Options and 2-Period Bermudan Options are also provided. Certain Greeks, including Delta and Gamma, of these options are also computed analytically. MATLAB scripts are provided for calculations involving 2-EPT functions. Numerical option pricing examples illustrate the effectiveness of the 2-EPT approach to financial modelling.

An exploration through interview and drawings of the experiences of patients diagnosed with oral cancer across their cancer trajectory

Background: The treatment of oral cancer is complex and lengthy. Curative treatment implies a combination of surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy. The main goal of treatment is to guarantee long-term tumour free survival with as little functional and cosmetic damage. Despite progress in developing these strategies, cancers of the oral cavity continue to have high mortality rates that have not improved dramatically over the past ten years. Aim: The aim of this study was to uniquely explore the dynamic changes in the physical, psychological, social and existential experiences of newly diagnosed patients with oral cancer at two points across their cancer illness trajectory i.e. at the time of diagnosis and at the end of treatment. Methodology: A qualitative prospective longitudinal design was employed. Non-probability purposive sampling allowed the recruitment of 10 participants. The principal data collection method used was a digital audio taped semi-structured interview along with drawings produced by the participants. Analysis: Data was analysed using latent content analyses. Summary: Three ‘dynamic’ themes, physical, psychosocial and existential experiences were revealed that interact and influence each other in a complex and compound whole. These experiences are present at different degrees and throughout the entire trajectory of care. Patients have a number of specific concerns and challenges that cannot be compartmentalised into unitary or discrete aspects of their daily lives. Conclusion & Implications: An understanding of the patient’s experience of their illness at all stages of the disease trajectory, is essential to inform service providers’ decision making if the delivery of care is to be client centred. Dynamic and fluctuating changes in the patient’s personal experience of the cancer journey require dynamic, energetic and timely input from health care professionals.

Survival analysis of adult tuberculosis disease

Background: We conducted a survival analysis of all the confirmed cases of Adult Tuberculosis (TB) patients treated in Cork-City, Ireland. The aim of this study was to estimate Survival time (ST), including median time of survival and to assess the association and impact of covariates (TB risk factors) to event status and ST. The outcome of the survival analysis is reported in this paper. Methods: We used a retrospective cohort study research design to review data of 647 bacteriologically confirmed TB patients from the medical record of two teaching hospitals. Mean age 49 years (Range 18–112). We collected information on potential risk factors of all confirmed cases of TB treated between 2008–2012. For the survival analysis, the outcome of interest was ‘treatment failure’ or ‘death’ (whichever came first). A univariate descriptive statistics analysis was conducted using a non- parametric procedure, Kaplan -Meier (KM) method to estimate overall survival (OS), while the Cox proportional hazard model was used for the multivariate analysis to determine possible association of predictor variables and to obtain adjusted hazard ratio. P value was set at <0.05, log likelihood ratio test at >0.10. Data were analysed using SPSS version 15.0. Results: There was no significant difference in the survival curves of male and female patients. (Log rank statistic = 0.194, df = 1, p = 0.66) and among different age group (Log rank statistic = 1.337, df = 3, p = 0.72). The mean overall survival (OS) was 209 days (95%CI: 92–346) while the median was 51 days (95% CI: 35.7–66). The mean ST for women was 385 days (95%CI: 76.6–694) and for men was 69 days (95%CI: 48.8–88.5). Multivariate Cox regression showed that patient who had history of drug misuse had 2.2 times hazard than those who do not have drug misuse. Smokers and alcohol drinkers had hazard of 1.8 while patients born in country of high endemicity (BICHE) had hazard of 6.3 and HIV co-infection hazard was 1.2. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in survival curves of male and female and among age group. Women had a higher ST compared to men. But men had a higher hazard rate compared to women. Anti-TNF, immunosuppressive medication and diabetes were found to be associated with longer ST, while alcohol, smoking, RICHE, BICHE was associated with shorter ST.

Cancer associated malnutrition: prevalence of cachexia, sarcopenia and impact on treatment outcomes, survival and health related quality of life

Malnutrition, sarcopenia and cancer cachexia (CC) are prevalent among cancer patients and can have detrimental effects on clinical outcomes such as quality of life (QoL) and overall survival. Cachexia is associated with lower tolerance for chemotherapy, which limits the total dose that can be delivered, the number of symptomatic responses and any survival advantage that might be accrued. Moreover, for the majority who do not respond, cachexia may be exacerbated by systemic chemotherapy, thus increasing the net symptom burden experienced by patients. The multitude of interactions between cancer location, treatments, nutritional status and QoL has never been thoroughly explored in an Irish cancer cohort. The objectives of this thesis were to further understand nutritional status, especially body composition in ambulatory cancer patients and determine the relationship between nutritional status using different assessment criteria and QoL, chemotherapy toxicity and survival among cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy. Results aimed to identify baseline factors that may be predictive of poor outcome, toxicities to chemotherapy and disease-free and overall survival. This thesis broadly divides into two sections. The first section (Chapters 3 & 4) focuses on improving our knowledge of the nutritional status of Irish cancer outpatients using a cross sectional study design. A study of 517 patients referred for chemotherapy was conducted using computed tomography (CT) imaging (body composition) and a survey that documented oncologic data, weight loss (WL) data and QoL data. We revealed that a significant proportion of Irish cancer patients undergoing chemotherapy experience unintentional WL over the previous 6 months (62%), sarcopenia (45%) and CC (43%), and the distribution of WL and nutritional risk were associated with site of primary tumour and treatment intent. Patients that had sarcopenia, nutritional risk, or CC had significantly reduced functional abilities, more symptoms and adverse global QoL. In the second section of this thesis (Chapters 5 & 6) the potential link between developing toxicity to antineoplastic regimens in patients with sarcopenia was conducted by way of retrospective studies. A retrospective serial CT analysis defined the prevalence of sarcopenia in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) and metastatic castrate resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), which was then correlated with dose limiting toxicities of sunitinib and docetaxel respectively. Sarcopenia was prevalent in patients with mRCC and mCRPC, was an occult condition in patients with normal/high BMI, was associated with less treatment days, was a significant predictor of DLT in patients receiving sunitinib and a significant predictor of neutropenia and neurosensory toxicities in patients receiving docetaxel. This thesis attempted to address the underlying research deficiencies in Irish oncology nutritional data at national level. The findings from this thesis have implications for the planning of cancer care interventions and indicate that further research is required to improve nutritional screening, in particular for CC and sarcopenia, in the hope that timely intervention can improve both patient-centered and oncologic outcomes.

Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.

Anti-cholinergic load, health care utilization, and survival in people with advanced cancer: a pilot study.

INTRODUCTION: Anti-cholinergic medications have been associated with increased risks of cognitive impairment, premature mortality and increased risk of hospitalisation. Anti-cholinergic load associated with medication increases as death approaches in those with advanced cancer, yet little is known about associated adverse outcomes in this setting. METHODS: A substudy of 112 participants in a randomised control trial who had cancer and an Australia modified Karnofsky Performance Scale (AKPS) score (AKPS) of 60 or above, explored survival and health service utilisation; with anti-cholinergic load calculated using the Clinician Rated Anti-cholinergic Scale (modified version) longitudinally to death. A standardised starting point for prospectively calculating survival was an AKPS of 60 or above. RESULTS: Baseline entry to the sub-study was a mean 62 +/- 81 days (median 37, range 1-588) days before death (survival), with mean of 4.8 (median 3, SD 4.18, range 1 - 24) study assessments in this time period. Participants spent 22% of time as an inpatient. There was no significant association between anti-cholinergic score and time spent as an inpatient (adjusted for survival time) (p = 0.94); or survival time. DISCUSSION: No association between anti-cholinergic load and survival or time spent as an inpatient was seen. Future studies need to include cognitively impaired populations where the risks of symptomatic deterioration may be more substantial.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Daily intake of antioxidants in relation to survival among adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma.

BACKGROUND: Malignant glioma is a rare cancer with poor survival. The influence of diet and antioxidant intake on glioma survival is not well understood. The current study examines the association between antioxidant intake and survival after glioma diagnosis. METHODS: Adult patients diagnosed with malignant glioma during 1991-1994 and 1997-2001 were enrolled in a population-based study. Diagnosis was confirmed by review of pathology specimens. A modified food-frequency questionnaire interview was completed by each glioma patient or a designated proxy. Intake of each food item was converted to grams consumed/day. From this nutrient database, 16 antioxidants, calcium, a total antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were available for survival analysis. Cox regression estimated mortality hazard ratios associated with each nutrient and the antioxidant index adjusting for potential confounders. Nutrient values were categorized into tertiles. Models were stratified by histology (Grades II, III, and IV) and conducted for all (including proxy) subjects and for a subset of self-reported subjects. RESULTS: Geometric mean values for 11 fat-soluble and 6 water-soluble individual antioxidants, antioxidant index and 3 macronutrients were virtually the same when comparing all cases (n=748) to self-reported cases only (n=450). For patients diagnosed with Grade II and Grade III histology, moderate (915.8-2118.3 mcg) intake of fat-soluble lycopene was associated with poorer survival when compared to low intake (0.0-914.8 mcg), for self-reported cases only. High intake of vitamin E and moderate/high intake of secoisolariciresinol among Grade III patients indicated greater survival for all cases. In Grade IV patients, moderate/high intake of cryptoxanthin and high intake of secoisolariciresinol were associated with poorer survival among all cases. Among Grade II patients, moderate intake of water-soluble folate was associated with greater survival for all cases; high intake of vitamin C and genistein and the highest level of the antioxidant index were associated with poorer survival for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: The associations observed in our study suggest that the influence of some antioxidants on survival following a diagnosis of malignant glioma are inconsistent and vary by histology group. Further research in a large sample of glioma patients is needed to confirm/refute our results.

Targeting A20 decreases glioma stem cell survival and tumor growth.

Glioblastomas are deadly cancers that display a functional cellular hierarchy maintained by self-renewing glioblastoma stem cells (GSCs). GSCs are regulated by molecular pathways distinct from the bulk tumor that may be useful therapeutic targets. We determined that A20 (TNFAIP3), a regulator of cell survival and the NF-kappaB pathway, is overexpressed in GSCs relative to non-stem glioblastoma cells at both the mRNA and protein levels. To determine the functional significance of A20 in GSCs, we targeted A20 expression with lentiviral-mediated delivery of short hairpin RNA (shRNA). Inhibiting A20 expression decreased GSC growth and survival through mechanisms associated with decreased cell-cycle progression and decreased phosphorylation of p65/RelA. Elevated levels of A20 in GSCs contributed to apoptotic resistance: GSCs were less susceptible to TNFalpha-induced cell death than matched non-stem glioma cells, but A20 knockdown sensitized GSCs to TNFalpha-mediated apoptosis. The decreased survival of GSCs upon A20 knockdown contributed to the reduced ability of these cells to self-renew in primary and secondary neurosphere formation assays. The tumorigenic potential of GSCs was decreased with A20 targeting, resulting in increased survival of mice bearing human glioma xenografts. In silico analysis of a glioma patient genomic database indicates that A20 overexpression and amplification is inversely correlated with survival. Together these data indicate that A20 contributes to glioma maintenance through effects on the glioma stem cell subpopulation. Although inactivating mutations in A20 in lymphoma suggest A20 can act as a tumor suppressor, similar point mutations have not been identified through glioma genomic sequencing: in fact, our data suggest A20 may function as a tumor enhancer in glioma through promotion of GSC survival. A20 anticancer therapies should therefore be viewed with caution as effects will likely differ depending on the tumor type.

Impact of simian immunodeficiency virus infection on chimpanzee population dynamics.

Like human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1), simian immunodeficiency virus of chimpanzees (SIVcpz) can cause CD4+ T cell loss and premature death. Here, we used molecular surveillance tools and mathematical modeling to estimate the impact of SIVcpz infection on chimpanzee population dynamics. Habituated (Mitumba and Kasekela) and non-habituated (Kalande) chimpanzees were studied in Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Ape population sizes were determined from demographic records (Mitumba and Kasekela) or individual sightings and genotyping (Kalande), while SIVcpz prevalence rates were monitored using non-invasive methods. Between 2002-2009, the Mitumba and Kasekela communities experienced mean annual growth rates of 1.9% and 2.4%, respectively, while Kalande chimpanzees suffered a significant decline, with a mean growth rate of -6.5% to -7.4%, depending on population estimates. A rapid decline in Kalande was first noted in the 1990s and originally attributed to poaching and reduced food sources. However, between 2002-2009, we found a mean SIVcpz prevalence in Kalande of 46.1%, which was almost four times higher than the prevalence in Mitumba (12.7%) and Kasekela (12.1%). To explore whether SIVcpz contributed to the Kalande decline, we used empirically determined SIVcpz transmission probabilities as well as chimpanzee mortality, mating and migration data to model the effect of viral pathogenicity on chimpanzee population growth. Deterministic calculations indicated that a prevalence of greater than 3.4% would result in negative growth and eventual population extinction, even using conservative mortality estimates. However, stochastic models revealed that in representative populations, SIVcpz, and not its host species, frequently went extinct. High SIVcpz transmission probability and excess mortality reduced population persistence, while intercommunity migration often rescued infected communities, even when immigrating females had a chance of being SIVcpz infected. Together, these results suggest that the decline of the Kalande community was caused, at least in part, by high levels of SIVcpz infection. However, population extinction is not an inevitable consequence of SIVcpz infection, but depends on additional variables, such as migration, that promote survival. These findings are consistent with the uneven distribution of SIVcpz throughout central Africa and explain how chimpanzees in Gombe and elsewhere can be at equipoise with this pathogen.

Epigenetic regulation of the nitrosative stress response and intracellular macrophage survival by extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli.

Extraintestinal pathogenic Escherichia coli (ExPEC) reside in the enteric tract as a commensal reservoir, but can transition to a pathogenic state by invading normally sterile niches, establishing infection and disseminating to invasive sites like the bloodstream. Macrophages are required for ExPEC dissemination, suggesting the pathogen has developed mechanisms to persist within professional phagocytes. Here, we report that FimX, an ExPEC-associated DNA invertase that regulates the major virulence factor type 1 pili (T1P), is also an epigenetic regulator of a LuxR-like response regulator HyxR. FimX regulated hyxR expression through bidirectional phase inversion of its promoter region at sites different from the type 1 pili promoter and independent of integration host factor (IHF). In vitro, transition from high to low HyxR expression produced enhanced tolerance of reactive nitrogen intermediates (RNIs), primarily through de-repression of hmpA, encoding a nitric oxide-detoxifying flavohaemoglobin. However, in the macrophage, HyxR produced large effects on intracellular survival in the presence and absence of RNI and independent of Hmp. Collectively, we have shown that the ability of ExPEC to survive in macrophages is contingent upon the proper transition from high to low HyxR expression through epigenetic regulatory control by FimX.

Cardiac beta ARK1 inhibition prolongs survival and augments beta blocker therapy in a mouse model of severe heart failure.

Chronic human heart failure is characterized by abnormalities in beta-adrenergic receptor (betaAR) signaling, including increased levels of betaAR kinase 1 (betaARK1), which seems critical to the pathogenesis of the disease. To determine whether inhibition of betaARK1 is sufficient to rescue a model of severe heart failure, we mated transgenic mice overexpressing a peptide inhibitor of betaARK1 (betaARKct) with transgenic mice overexpressing the sarcoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+)-binding protein, calsequestrin (CSQ). CSQ mice have a severe cardiomyopathy and markedly shortened survival (9 +/- 1 weeks). In contrast, CSQ/betaARKct mice exhibited a significant increase in mean survival age (15 +/- 1 weeks; P < 0.0001) and showed less cardiac dilation, and cardiac function was significantly improved (CSQ vs. CSQ/betaARKct, left ventricular end diastolic dimension 5.60 +/- 0.17 mm vs. 4.19 +/- 0.09 mm, P < 0.005; % fractional shortening, 15 +/- 2 vs. 36 +/- 2, P < 0.005). The enhancement of the survival rate in CSQ/betaARKct mice was substantially potentiated by chronic treatment with the betaAR antagonist metoprolol (CSQ/betaARKct nontreated vs. CSQ/betaARKct metoprolol treated, 15 +/- 1 weeks vs. 25 +/- 2 weeks, P < 0.0001). Thus, overexpression of the betaARKct resulted in a marked prolongation in survival and improved cardiac function in a mouse model of severe cardiomyopathy that can be potentiated with beta-blocker therapy. These data demonstrate a significant synergy between an established heart-failure treatment and the strategy of betaARK1 inhibition.

Neuronal Survival of the Fittest: The Importance of Aerobic Capacity in Exercise-Induced Neurogenesis and Cognition

It is commonly accepted that aerobic exercise increases hippocampal neurogenesis, learning and memory, as well as stress resiliency. However, human populations are widely variable in their inherent aerobic fitness as well as their capacity to show increased aerobic fitness following a period of regimented exercise. It is unclear whether these inherent or acquired components of aerobic fitness play a role in neurocognition. To isolate the potential role of inherent aerobic fitness, we exploited a rat model of high (HCR) and low (LCR) inherent aerobic capacity for running. At a baseline, HCR rats have two- to three-fold higher aerobic capacity than LCR rats. We found that HCR rats also had two- to three- fold more young neurons in the hippocampus than LCR rats as well as rats from the heterogeneous founder population. We then asked whether this enhanced neurogenesis translates to enhanced hippocampal cognition, as is typically seen in exercise-trained animals. Compared to LCR rats, HCR rats performed with high accuracy on tasks designed to test neurogenesis-dependent pattern separation ability by examining investigatory behavior between very similar objects or locations. To investigate whether an aerobic response to exercise is required for exercise-induced changes in neurogenesis and cognition, we utilized a rat model of high (HRT) and low (LRT) aerobic response to treadmill training. At a baseline, HRT and LRT rats have comparable aerobic capacity as measured by a standard treadmill fit test, yet after a standardized training regimen, HRT but not LRT rats robustly increase their aerobic capacity for running. We found that sedentary LRT and HRT rats had equivalent levels of hippocampal neurogenesis, but only HRT rats had an elevation in the number of young neurons in the hippocampus following training, which was positively correlated with accuracy on pattern separation tasks. Taken together, these data suggest that a significant elevation in aerobic capacity is necessary for exercise-induced hippocampal neurogenesis and hippocampal neurogenesis-dependent learning and memory. To investigate the potential for high aerobic capacity to be neuroprotective, doxorubicin chemotherapy was administered to LCR and HCR rats. While doxorubicin induces a progressive decrease in aerobic capacity as well as neurogenesis, HCR rats remain at higher levels on those measures compared to even saline-treated LCR rats. HCR and LCR rats that received exercise training throughout doxorubicin treatment demonstrated positive effects of exercise on aerobic capacity and neurogenesis, regardless of inherent aerobic capacity. Overall, these findings demonstrate that inherent and acquired components of aerobic fitness play a crucial role not only in the cardiorespiratory system but also the fitness of the brain.