Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

The World of Indicators. The Making of Governmental Knowledge through Quantification

The twenty-first century has seen a further dramatic increase in the use of quantitative knowledge for governing social life after its explosion in the 1980s. Indicators and rankings play an increasing role in the way governmental and non-governmental organizations distribute attention, make decisions, and allocate scarce resources. Quantitative knowledge promises to be more objective and straightforward as well as more transparent and open for public debate than qualitative knowledge, thus producing more democratic decision-making. However, we know little about the social processes through which this knowledge is constituted nor its effects. Understanding how such numeric knowledge is produced and used is increasingly important as proliferating technologies of quantification alter modes of knowing in subtle and often unrecognized ways. This book explores the implications of the global multiplication of indicators as a specific technology of numeric knowledge production used in governance. Combination of insights from anthropology of law, history of science, science and technology studies, sociology of quantification, economics and geography will appeal to those who are uncomfortable with the separation between 'theoretical' and 'empirical' approaches and with the current weakness of critique that address the main trends shaping the relations between capitalism, markets, law and democracy Theoretical discussion of the nature and historical formation of quantification will appeal to those who ask questions such as, 'What is new or different about our contemporary reliance on quantitative knowledge?' Groundbreaking empirical case studies uncover the social work and politics that often go into the making of indicators and explore the far-reaching effects and impacts of these numerical representations in specific settings

Quantification of anandamide and 2-arachidonoylglycerol plasma levels to examine potential influences of tetrahydrocannabinol application on the endocannabinoid system in humans

The effects of tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) and endogenous cannabinoids (endocannabinoids, ECs) are both mediated by activation of the cannabinoid receptors CB1 and CB2. Exogenous activation of these receptors by THC could therefore alter EC levels. We tested this hypothesis in healthy volunteers (n = 25) who received a large intravenous dose of THC (0.10 mg/kg). Effects on the EC system were quantified by serial measurements of plasma ECs after THC administration. Eleven blood samples were drawn during the first 5 h after THC administration and two more samples after 24 and 48 h. THC, its metabolites THC-OH (biologically active) and THC-COOH (non-active), and the ECs anandamide and 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) were quantified by liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. EC-plasma levels showed a biphasic response after THC injection reaching maximal values at 30 min. Anandamide increased slightly from 0.58 ± 0.21 ng/ml at baseline to 0.64 ± 0.24 ng/ml (p < 0.05) and 2-AG from 7.60 ± 4.30 ng/ml to 9.50 ± 5.90 ng/ml (p < 0.05). After reaching maximal concentrations, EC plasma levels decreased markedly to a nadir of 300 min after THC administration (to 0.32 ± 0.15 ng/ml for anandamide and to 5.50 ± 3.01 ng/ml for 2-AG, p < 0.05). EC plasma concentrations returned to near baseline levels until 48 h after the experiment. THC (0.76 ± 0.16 ng/ml) and THC-OH (0.36 ± 0.17 ng/ml) were still measurable at 24 h and remained detectible until 48 h after THC administration. Although the underlying mechanism is not clear, high doses of intravenous THC appear to influence endogenous cannabinoid concentrations and presumably EC-signalling.

Identification, quantification, spatiotemporal distribution and genetic variation of major latex secondary metabolites in the common dandelion (Taraxacum officinale agg.)

The secondary metabolites in the roots, leaves and flowers of the common dandelion (Taraxacum officinale agg.) have been studied in detail. However, little is known about the specific constituents of the plant’s highly specialized laticifer cells. Using a combination of liquid and gas chromatography, mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry, we identified and quantified the major secondary metabolites in the latex of different organs across different growth stages in three genotypes, and tested the activity of the metabolites against the generalist root herbivore Diabrotica balteata. We found that common dandelion latex is dominated by three classes of secondary metabolites: phenolic inositol esters (PIEs), triterpene acetates (TritAc) and the sesquiterpene lactone taraxinic acid β-d-glucopyranosyl ester (TA-G). Purification and absolute quantification revealed concentrations in the upper mg g−1 range for all compound classes with up to 6% PIEs, 5% TritAc and 7% TA-G per gram latex fresh weight. Contrary to typical secondary metabolite patterns, concentrations of all three classes increased with plant age. The highest concentrations were measured in the main root. PIE profiles differed both quantitatively and qualitatively between plant genotypes, whereas TritAc and TA-G differed only quantitatively. Metabolite concentrations were positively correlated within and between the different compound classes, indicating tight biosynthetic co-regulation. Latex metabolite extracts strongly repelled D. balteata larvae, suggesting that the latex constituents are biologically active.

Detection and quantification of 56 new psychoactive substances in whole blood and urine by LC-MS/MS

BACKGROUND New psychoactive substances (NPS) have become increasingly prevalent and are sold in internet shops as 'bath salts' or 'research chemicals' and comprehensive bioanalytical methods are needed for their detection. METHODOLOGY We developed and validated a method using LC and MS/MS to quantify 56 NPS in blood and urine, including amphetamine derivatives, 2C compounds, aminoindanes, cathinones, piperazines, tryptamines, dissociatives and others. Instrumentation included a Synergi Polar-RP column (Phenomenex) and a 3200 QTrap mass spectrometer (AB Sciex). Run time was 20 min. CONCLUSION A novel method is presented for the unambiguous identification and quantification of 56 NPS in blood and urine samples in clinical and forensic cases, e.g., intoxications or driving under the influence of drugs.

Quantification of Mitral Regurgitation with Multiple Jets: In Vitro Comparison of Two-dimensional PISA techniques

Purpose: Traditionally, the proximal isovelocity surface area (PISA) is based on the assumption of a single hemisphere (hemispheric PISA), but this technique has not been validated for the quantification of mitral regurgitation (MR) with multiple jets. Methods: The left heart simulator was actuated by a pulsatile pump at various stroke amplitudes. The regurgitant volume (Rvol) passing through the mitral valve phantoms with single and double regurgitant orifices of varying size and interspace was quantified by a flowmeter as reference technique. Color Doppler 3-D full-volumes were obtained, and Rvol were derived from 2-D PISA surfaces on the basis of hemispheric and hemicylindric assumption with one base (partial hemicylindric PISA) or 2 bases (total hemicylindric PISA). Results: 72 regurgitant volumes (Rvol range: 8 to 76 ml/beat) were obtained. Hemispheric PISA Rvol correlated well with reference Rvol by one orifice (R²=0.97; bias -2.7±3.2ml), but less by ≥ one orifice (R²=0.89). When a fusion of two PISAs occured, addition of two hemispheric PISA overestimated Rvol (bias 9.1±12.2ml, fig.1), and single hemispheric PISA underestimated Rvol (bias -12.4±4.9ml). If an integrated approach was used (hemispheric in single orifice, total hemicylindric in two non-fused PISAs and partial hemicylindric in two fused PISAs), the correlation was R²=0.95, bias -1.6±5.6ml (fig.2). In the ROC analysis, the cutoff to detect ≥ moderate-to-severe Rvol (≥45ml) was 42ml (AUC 0.99, sens. 100%, spec. 93%). Conclusions: In MR with two regurgitant jets, the 2-D hemicylindric assumption of the PISA offers a better quantification of Rvol than the hemispheric assumption. Quantification of MR using 2-D PISA requires an integrated approach that considers number of regurgitant orifices and fusion of the PISAs.

Experimental Characterization and Quantification of Cement-Bentonite Interaction using Core Infiltration Techniques Coupled with X-ray Tomography

Deep geological storage of radioactive waste foresees cementitious materials as reinforcement of tunnels and as backfill. Bentonite is proposed to enclose spent fuel canisters and as drift seals. Sand/bentonite (s/b) is foreseen as backfill material of access galleries or as drift seals. The emplacement of cementitious material next to clay material generates an enormous chemical gradient in pore-water composition that drives diffusive solute transport. Laboratory studies and reactive transport modeling predicted significant mineral alteration at and near interfaces, mainly resulting in a decrease of porosity in bentonite. The goal of this thesis was to characterize and quantify the cement/bentonite interactions both spatially and temporally in laboratory experiments. A newly developed mobile X-ray transparent core infiltration device was used to perform X-ray computed tomography (CT) scans without interruption of running experiments. CT scans allowed tracking the evolution of the reaction plume and changes in core volume/diameter/density during the experiments. In total 4 core infiltration experiments were carried out for this study with the compacted and saturated cores consisting of MX-80 bentonite and sand/MX-80 bentonite mixture (s/b; 65/35%). Two different high-pH cementitious pore-fluids were infiltrated: a young (early) ordinary Portland cement pore-fluid (APWOPC; K+–Na+–OH-; pH 13.4; ionic strength 0.28 mol/kg) and a young ‘low-pH’ ESDRED shotcrete pore-fluid (APWESDRED; Ca2+–Na+–K+–formate; pH 11.4; ionic strength 0.11 mol/kg). The experiments lasted between 1 and 2 years. In both bentonite experiments, the hydraulic conductivity was strongly reduced after switching to high-pH fluids, changing eventually from an advective to a diffusion-dominated transport regime. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and possibly partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Both bentonite cores showed a volume reduction and a resulting transient flow in which pore-water was squeezed out during high-pH infiltration. The outflow chemistry was characterized by a high ionic strength, while chloride in the initial pore water got replaced as main anionic charge carrier by sulfate, originating from gypsum dissolution. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the bentonite, consuming hydroxide and in case of APWESDRED also formate. Hydroxide got consumed by mineral reactions (saponite and possibly talc and brucite precipitation), while formate being affected by bacterial degradation. Post-mortem analysis showed reaction zones near the inlet of the bentonite core, characterized by calcium and magnesium enrichment, consisting predominately of calcite and saponite, respectively. Silica got enriched in the outflow, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified as preferentially cristobalite. In s/b, infiltration of APWOPC reduced the hydraulic conductivity strongly, while APWESDRED infiltration had no effect. The reduction was mainly induced by mineral precipitation and probably partly also by high ionic strength pore-fluids. Not clear is why the observed mineral precipitates in the APWESDRED experiment had no effect on the fluid flow. Both s/b cores showed a volume expansion along with decreasing ionic strengths of the outflow, due to mineral reactions or in case of APWESDRED infiltration also mediated by microbiological activity, consuming hydroxide and formate, respectively. The chemistry of the high-pH fluids got strongly buffered by the s/b. In the case of APWESDRED infiltration, formate reached the outflow only for a short time, followed by enrichment in acetate, indicating most likely biological activity. This was in agreement to post-mortem analysis of the core, observing black spots on the inflow surface, while the sample had a rotten-egg smell indicative of some sulfate reduction. Post-mortem analysis showed further in both cores a Ca-enrichment in the first 10 mm of the core due to calcite precipitation. Mg-enrichment was only observed in the APWOPC experiment, originating from newly formed saponite. Silica got enriched in the outflow of both experiments, indicating dissolution of silicate-minerals, identified in the OPC experiment as cristobalite. The experiments attested an effective buffering capacity for bentonite and s/b, a progressing coupled hydraulic-chemical sealing process and also the preservation of the physical integrity of the interface region in this setup with a total pressure boundary condition on the core sample. No complete pore-clogging was observed but the hydraulic conductivity got rather strongly reduced in 3 experiments, explained by clogging of the intergranular porosity (macroporosity). Such a drop in hydraulic conductivity may impact the saturation time of the buffer in a nuclear waste repository, although the processes and geometry will be more complex in repository situation.

Cold Microwave-Enabled Protein Detection and Quantification.

Protein screening/detection is an essential tool in many laboratories. Owing to the relatively large time investments that are required by standard protocols, the development of methods with higher throughput while maintaining an at least comparable signal-to-noise ratio is highly beneficial in many research areas. This chapter describes how cold microwave technology can be used to enhance the rate of molecular interactions and provides protocols for dot blots, Western blots, and ELISA procedures permitting a completion of all incubation steps (blocking and antibody steps) within 24-45 min.

Visualization and quantification of air embolism structure by processing postmortem MSCT data.

Venous air embolism (VAE) is an often occurring forensic finding in cases of injury to the head and neck. Whenever found, it has to be appraised in its relation to the cause of death. While visualization and quantification is difficult at traditional autopsy, Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) offer a new potential in the diagnosis of VAE. This paper reports the findings of VAE in four cases of massive head injury examined postmortem by Multislice Computed Tomography (MSCT) prior to autopsy. MSCT data of the thorax were processed using 3D air structure reconstruction software to visualize air embolism within the vascular system. Quantification of VAE was done by multiplying air containing areas on axial 2D images by their reconstruction intervals and then by summarizing the air volumes. Excellent 3D visualization of the air within the vascular system was obtained in all cases, and the intravascular gas volume was quantified.

Quantification of water content across a cement-clay interface using high resolution neutron radiography

In many designs for radioactive waste repositories, cement and clay will come into direct contact. The geochemical contrast between cement and clay will lead to mass fluxes across the interface, which consequently results in alteration of structural and transport properties of both materials that may affect the performance of the multi-barrier system. We present an experimental approach to study cement-clay interactions with a cell to accommodate small samples of cement and clay. The cell design allows both in situ measurement of water content across the sample using neutron radiography and measurement of transport parameters using through-diffusion tracer experiments. The aim of the high- resolution neutron radiography experiments was to monitor changes in water content (porosity) and their spatial extent. Neutron radiographs of several evolving cement-clay interfaces delivered quantitative data which allow resolving local water contents within the sample domain. In the present work we explored the uncertainties of the derived water contents with regard to various input parameters and with regard to the applied image correction procedures. Temporal variation of measurement conditions created absolute uncertainty of the water content in the order of ±0.1 (m3/m3), which could not be fully accounted for by correction procedures. Smaller relative changes in water content between two images can be derived by specific calibrations to two sample regions with different, invariant water contents.

Natural and anthropogenic methane fluxes in Eurasia: a mesoscale quantification by generalized atmospheric inversion

Eight surface observation sites providing quasi-continuous measurements of atmospheric methane mixingratios have been operated since the mid-2000’s in Siberia. For the first time in a single work, we assimilate 1 year of these in situ observations in an atmospheric inversion. Our objective is to quantify methane surface fluxes from anthropogenic and wetland sources at the mesoscale in the Siberian lowlands for the year 2010. To do so, we first inquire about the way the inversion uses the observations and the way the fluxes are constrained by the observation sites. As atmospheric inver- sions at the mesoscale suffer from mis-quantified sources of uncertainties, we follow recent innovations in inversion techniques and use a new inversion approach which quantifies the uncertainties more objectively than the previous inversion systems. We find that, due to errors in the representation of the atmospheric transport and redundant pieces of information, only one observation every few days is found valuable by the inversion. The remaining high-resolution quasi-continuous signal is representative of very local emission patterns difficult to analyse with a mesoscale system. An analysis of the use of information by the inversion also reveals that the observation sites constrain methane emissions within a radius of 500 km. More observation sites than the ones currently in operation are then necessary to constrain the whole Siberian lowlands. Still, the fluxes within the constrained areas are quantified with objectified uncertainties. Finally, the tolerance intervals for posterior methane fluxes are of roughly 20 % (resp. 50 %) of the fluxes for anthropogenic (resp. wetland) sources. About 50–70 % of Siberian lowlands emissions are constrained by the inversion on average on an annual basis. Extrapolating the figures on the constrained areas to the whole Siberian lowlands, we find a regional methane budget of 5–28 TgCH4 for the year 2010, i.e. 1–5 % of the global methane emissions. As very few in situ observations are available in the region of interest, observations of methane total columns from the Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) are tentatively used for the evaluation of the inversion results, but they exhibit only a marginal signal from the fluxes within the region of interest.

Effect of glucose on assimilatory sulphate reduction in Arabidopsis thaliana roots

With the aim of analysing the relative importance of sugar supply and nitrogen nutrition for the regulation of sulphate assimilation, the regulation of adenosine 5′‐phosphosulphate reductase (APR), a key enzyme of sulphate reduction in plants, was studied. Glucose feeding experiments with Arabidopsis thaliana cultivated with and without a nitrogen source were performed. After a 38 h dark period, APR mRNA, protein, and enzymatic activity levels decreased dramatically in roots. The addition of 0.5% (w/v) glucose to the culture medium resulted in an increase of APR levels in roots (mRNA, protein and activity), comparable to those of plants kept under normal light conditions. Treatment of roots with D‐sorbitol or D‐mannitol did not increase APR activity, indicating that osmotic stress was not involved in APR regulation. The addition of O‐acetyl‐L‐serine (OAS) also quickly and transiently increased APR levels (mRNA, protein, and activity). Feeding plants with a combination of glucose and OAS resulted in a more than additive induction of APR activity. Contrary to nitrate reductase, APR was also increased by glucose in N‐deficient plants, indicating that this effect was independent of nitrate assimilation. [35S]‐sulphate feeding experiments showed that the addition of glucose to dark‐treated roots resulted in an increased incorporation of [35S] into thiols and proteins, which corresponded to the increased levels of APR activity. Under N‐deficient conditions, glucose also increased thiol labelling, but did not increase the incorporation of label into proteins. These results demonstrate that (i) exogenously supplied glucose can replace the function of photoassimilates in roots; (ii) APR is subject to co‐ordinated metabolic control by carbon metabolism; (iii) positive sugar signalling overrides negative signalling from nitrate assimilation in APR regulation. Furthermore, signals originating from nitrogen and carbon metabolism regulate APR synergistically.

Flux control of sulphate assimilation in Arabidopsis thaliana : adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate reductase is more susceptible than ATP sulphurylase to negative control by thiols

The effect of externally applied l-cysteine and glutathione (GSH) on ATP sulphurylase and adenosine 5′-phosphosulphate reductase (APR), two key enzymes of assimilatory sulphate reduction, was examined in Arabidopsis thaliana root cultures. Addition of increasing l-cysteine to the nutrient solution increased internal cysteine, γ-glutamylcysteine and GSH concentrations, and decreased APR mRNA, protein and extractable activity. An effect on APR could already be detected at 0.2 mm l-cysteine, whereas ATP sulphurylase was significantly affected only at 2 mm l-cysteine. APR mRNA, protein and activity were also decreased by GSH at 0.2 mm and higher concentrations. In the presence of l-buthionine-S, R-sulphoximine (BSO), an inhibitor of GSH synthesis, 0.2 mm l-cysteine had no effect on APR activity, indicating that GSH formed from cysteine was the regulating substance. Simultaneous addition of BSO and 0.5 mm GSH to the culture medium decreased APR mRNA, enzyme protein and activity. ATP sulphurylase activity was not affected by this treatment. Tracer experiments using 35SO42– in the presence of 0.5 mm l-cysteine or GSH showed that both thiols decreased sulphate uptake, APR activity and the flux of label into cysteine, GSH and protein, but had no effect on the activity of all other enzymes of assimilatory sulphate reduction and serine acetyltransferase. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that thiols regulate the flux through sulphate assimilation at the uptake and the APR step. Analysis of radioactive labelling indicates that the flux control coefficient of APR is more than 0.5 for the intracellular pathway of sulphate assimilation. This analysis also shows that the uptake of external sulphate is inhibited by GSH to a greater extent than the flux through the pathway, and that the flux control coefficient of APR for the pathway, including the transport step, is proportionately less, with a significant share of the control exerted by the transport step.