Conceptualising, evaluating and reporting social resilience in vulnerable regional and remote communities facing climate change in tropical Queensland : marine and tropical sciences research facility transition project final report

Regional and remote communities in tropical Queensland are among Australia’s most vulnerable in the face of climate change. At the same time, these socially and economically vulnerable regions house some of Australia’s most significant biodiversity values. Past approaches to terrestrial biodiversity management have focused on tackling biophysical interventions through the use of biophysical knowledge. An equally important focus should be placed on building regional-scale community resilience if some of the worst biodiversity impacts of climate change are to be avoided or mitigated. Despite its critical need, more systemic or holistic approaches to natural resource management have been rarely trialed and tested in a structured way. Currently, most strategic interventions in improving regional community resilience are ad hoc, not theory-based and short term. Past planning approaches have not been durable, nor have they been well informed by clear indicators. Research into indicators for community resilience has been poorly integrated within adaptive planning and management cycles. This project has aimed to resolve this problem by: * Reviewing the community and social resilience and adaptive planning literature to reconceptualise an improved framework for applying community resilience concepts; * Harvesting and extending work undertaken in MTSRF Phase 1 to identifying the learnings emerging from past MTSRF research; * Distilling these findings to identify new theoretical and practical approaches to the application of community resilience in natural resource use and management; * Reconsidering the potential interplay between a region’s biophysical and social planning processes, with a focus on exploring spatial tools to communicate climate change risk and its consequent environmental, economic and social impacts, and; * Trialling new approaches to indicator development and adaptive planning to improve community resilience, using a sub-regional pilot in the Wet Tropics. In doing so, we also looked at ways to improve the use and application of relevant spatial information. Our theoretical review drew upon the community development, psychology and emergency management literature to better frame the concept of community resilience relative to aligned concepts of social resilience, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Firstly, we consider community resilience as a concept that can be considered at a range of scales (e.g. regional, locality, communities of interest, etc.). We also consider that overall resilience at higher scales will be influenced by resilience levels at lesser scales (inclusive of the resilience of constituent institutions, families and individuals). We illustrate that, at any scale, resilience and vulnerability are not necessarily polar opposites, and that some understanding of vulnerability is important in determining resilience. We position social resilience (a concept focused on the social characteristics of communities and individuals) as an important attribute of community resilience, but one that needs to be considered alongside economic, natural resource, capacity-based and governance attributes. The findings from the review of theory and MTSRF Phase 1 projects were synthesized and refined by the wider project team. Five predominant themes were distilled from this literature, research review and an expert analysis. They include the findings that: 1. Indicators have most value within an integrated and adaptive planning context, requiring an active co-research relationship between community resilience planners, managers and researchers if real change is to be secured; 2. Indicators of community resilience form the basis for planning for social assets and the resilience of social assets is directly related the longer term resilience of natural assets. This encourages and indeed requires the explicit development and integration of social planning within a broader natural resource planning and management framework; 3. Past indicator research and application has not provided a broad picture of the key attributes of community resilience and there have been many attempts to elicit lists of “perfect” indicators that may never be useful within the time and resource limitations of real world regional planning and management. We consider that modeling resilience for proactive planning and prediction purposes requires the consideration of simple but integrated clusters of attributes; 4. Depending on time and resources available for planning and management, the combined use of well suited indicators and/or other lesser “lines of evidence” is more flexible than the pursuit of perfect indicators, and that; 5. Index-based, collaborative and participatory approaches need to be applied to the development, refinement and reporting of indicators over longer time frames. We trialed the practical application of these concepts via the establishment of a collaborative regional alliance of planners and managers involved in the development of climate change adaptation strategies across tropical Queensland (the Gulf, Wet Tropics, Cape York and Torres Strait sub-regions). A focus on the Wet Tropics as a pilot sub-region enabled other Far North Queensland sub-region’s to participate and explore the potential extension of this approach. The pilot activities included: * Further exploring ways to innovatively communicate the region’s likely climate change scenarios and possible environmental, economic and social impacts. We particularly looked at using spatial tools to overlay climate change risks to geographic communities and social vulnerabilities within those communities; * Developing a cohesive first pass of a State of the Region-style approach to reporting community resilience, inclusive of regional economic viability, community vitality, capacitybased and governance attributes. This framework integrated a literature review, expert (academic and community) and alliance-based contributions; and * Early consideration of critical strategies that need to be included in unfolding regional planning activities with Far North Queensland. The pilot assessment finds that rural, indigenous and some urban populations in the Wet Tropics are highly vulnerable and sensitive to climate change and may require substantial support to adapt and become more resilient. This assessment finds that under current conditions (i.e. if significant adaptation actions are not taken) the Wet Tropics as a whole may be seriously impacted by the most significant features of climate change and extreme climatic events. Without early and substantive action, this could result in declining social and economic wellbeing and natural resource health. Of the four attributes we consider important to understanding community resilience, the Wet Tropics region is particularly vulnerable in two areas; specifically its economic vitality and knowledge, aspirations and capacity. The third and fourth attributes, community vitality and institutional governance are relatively resilient but are vulnerable in some key respects. In regard to all four of these attributes, however, there is some emerging capacity to manage the possible shocks that may be associated with the impacts of climate change and extreme climatic events. This capacity needs to be carefully fostered and further developed to achieve broader community resilience outcomes. There is an immediate need to build individual, household, community and sectoral resilience across all four attribute groups to enable populations and communities in the Wet Tropics region to adapt in the face of climate change. Preliminary strategies of importance to improve regional community resilience have been identified. These emerging strategies also have been integrated into the emerging Regional Development Australia Roadmap, and this will ensure that effective implementation will be progressed and coordinated. They will also inform emerging strategy development to secure implementation of the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan. Of most significance in our view, this project has taken a co-research approach from the outset with explicit and direct importance and influence within the region’s formal planning and management arrangements. As such, the research: * Now forms the foundations of the first attempt at “Social Asset” planning within the Wet Tropics Regional NRM Plan review; * Is assisting Local government at regional scale to consider aspects of climate change adaptation in emerging planning scheme/community planning processes; * Has partnered the State government (via the Department of Infrastructure and Planning and Regional Managers Coordination Network Chair) in progressing the Climate Change adaptation agenda set down within the FNQ 2031 Regional Plan; * Is informing new approaches to report on community resilience within the GBRMPA Outlook reporting framework; and * Now forms the foundation for the region’s wider climate change adaptation priorities in the Regional Roadmap developed by Regional Development Australia. Through the auspices of Regional Development Australia, the outcomes of the research will now inform emerging negotiations concerning a wider package of climate change adaptation priorities with State and Federal governments. Next stage research priorities are also being developed to enable an ongoing alliance between researchers and the region’s climate change response.

Security analysis of the non-aggressive challenge response of the DNP3 Protocol using a CPN Model

Distributed Network Protocol Version 3 (DNP3) is the de-facto communication protocol for power grids. Standard-based interoperability among devices has made the protocol useful to other infrastructures such as water, sewage, oil and gas. DNP3 is designed to facilitate interaction between master stations and outstations. In this paper, we apply a formal modelling methodology called Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) to create an executable model representation of DNP3 protocol. The model facilitates the analysis of the protocol to ensure that the protocol will behave as expected. Also, we illustrate how to verify and validate the behaviour of the protocol, using the CPN model and the corresponding state space tool to determine if there are insecure states. With this approach, we were able to identify a Denial of Service (DoS) attack against the DNP3 protocol.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

Institutional response and Indigenous experiences of Cyclone Tracy

Early on Christmas morning 1974 Tropical Cyclone Tracy, a Category 4 storm, devastated the Northern Territory city of Darwin leaving only 6% of the city’s housing habitable. The extent of the disaster was largely the result of unregulated and poorly constructed buildings, predominantly housing. While the engineering and reconstruction process demonstrated a very successful response and adaptation to an existing and future risk, the impact of the cyclone of the local community and its Indigenous population in particular, had not been well recorded. NCCARF therefore commissioned a report on the Indigenous experience of Cyclone Tracy to document how Indigenous people were impacted by, responded to, and recovered from Cyclone Tracy in comparison to non-Indigenous groups. The report also considers the research literature on disasters and Indigenous people in the Northern Territory, with a specific focus on cyclones, and considers the socio-political context of Indigenous communities in Darwin prior to Cyclone Tracy.

Thinning vertical graphenes, tuning electrical response : from semiconducting to metallic

A simple, uniquely plasma-enabled and environment-friendly process to reduce the thickness of vertically standing graphenes to only 4–5 graphene layers and arranging them in dense, ultra-large surface area, ultra-open-edge-length, self-organized and interconnected networks is demonstrated. The approach for the ultimate thickness reduction to 1–2 graphene layers is also proposed. The vertical graphene networks are optically transparent and show tunable electric properties from semiconducting to semi-metallic and metallic at room and near-room temperature, thus recovering semi-metallic properties of a single-layer graphene.

Nanowire sensor response to reactive gas environment

The response of an originally developed catalytic sensor with a Nb2 O5 nanowire array at its outer surface to the varying density of O atoms is experimentally and numerically studied. This technique can be used to measure one order of magnitude lower densities of O atoms and achieve a stable linear response in a significantly broader pressure range compared to conventional catalytic probes with a flat surface. The nanostructured outer surface also acts as a thermal barrier against sensor overheating. This approach is generic and can be used for reactive species detection in other reactive gas environments.

Arterial short-term travel time prediction using Bluetooth data

This project recognized lack of data analysis and travel time prediction on arterials as the main gap in the current literature. For this purpose it first investigated reliability of data gathered by Bluetooth technology as a new cost effective method for data collection on arterial roads. Then by considering the similarity among varieties of daily travel time on different arterial routes, created a SARIMA model to predict future travel time values. Based on this research outcome, the created model can be applied for online short term travel time prediction in future.

Turning points, power transfer, and frequency response of mode transitions in RF plasmas

Turning points for transitions between the electrostatic and electromagnetic discharge modes in low-frequency (∼ 500 kHz) inductively coupled plasmas have been identified and cross-referenced using time-resolved measurements of the plasma optical emission intensities, RF coil current, and ion saturation current collected by a single RF-compensated Langmuir probe. This enables one to monitor the variation of the plasma parameters, power transfer efficiency, which accompany the discharge hysteresis. The excitation conditions for the pure and hybrid modes in the plasma are considered, and the possibility of the TMmnl → TEm'n'l' transitions at higher frequencies are discussed.

Plasma-controlled nanocrystallinity and phase composition of TiO2 : a smart way to enhance biomimetic response

This contribution sheds light on the role of crystal size and phase composition in inducing biomimetic apatite growth on the surface of nanostructured titania films synthesized by reactive magnetron sputtering of Ti targets in Ar+O2 plasmas. Unlike most existing techniques, this method enables one to deposit highly crystalline titania films with a wide range of phase composition and nanocrystal size, without any substrate heating or postannealing. Moreover, by using this dry plasma-based method one can avoid surface hydroxylation at the deposition stage, almost inevitable in wet chemical processes. Results of this work show that high phase purity and optimum crystal size appear to be the essential requirement for efficient apatite formation on magnetron plasma-fabricated bioactive titania coatings. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dopamine transporter genotype predicts behavioural and neural measures of response inhibition

The ability to inhibit unwanted actions is a heritable executive function that may confer risk to disorders such as attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Converging evidence from pharmacology and cognitive neuroscience suggests that response inhibition is instantiated within frontostriatal circuits of the brain with patterns of activity that are modulated by the catecholamines dopamine and noradrenaline. A total of 405 healthy adult participants performed the stop-signal task, a paradigmatic measure of response inhibition that yields an index of the latency of inhibition, termed the stop-signal reaction time (SSRT). Using this phenotype, we tested for genetic association, performing high-density single-nucleotide polymorphism mapping across the full range of autosomal catecholamine genes. Fifty participants also underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging to establish the impact of associated alleles on brain and behaviour. Allelic variation in polymorphisms of the dopamine transporter gene (SLC6A3: rs37020; rs460000) predicted individual differences in SSRT, after corrections for multiple comparisons. Furthermore, activity in frontal regions (anterior frontal, superior frontal and superior medial gyri) and caudate varied additively with the T-allele of rs37020. The influence of genetic variation in SLC6A3 on the development of frontostriatal inhibition networks may represent a key risk mechanism for disorders of behavioural inhibition.

Effect of soil properties on the response of pile to underground explosion

This paper develops and presents a fully coupled non-linear finite element procedure to treat the response of piles to ground shocks induced by underground explosions. The Arbitrary Lagrange Euler coupling formulation with proper state material parameters and equations are used in the study. Pile responses in four different soil types, viz, saturated soil, partially saturated soil and loose and dense dry soils are investigated and the results compared. Numerical results are validated by comparing with those from a standard design manual. Blast wave propagation in soils, horizontal pile deformations and damages in the pile are presented. The pile damage presented through plastic strain diagrams will enable the vulnerability assessment of the piles under the blast scenarios considered. The numerical results indicate that the blast performance of the piles embedded in saturated soil and loose dry soil are more severe than those in piles embedded in partially saturated soil and dense dry soil. Present findings should serve as a benchmark reference for future analysis and design.

How should future building structure and emergency response cope with bushfire attack?

Bushfires are regular occurrences in the Australian landscape which can, under adverse weather conditions, give rise to losses of life, property, infrastructure, environmental and cultural values. Where property loss is involved, historical surveys of house losses have focussed on ember, radiant heat and flame contact as key bushfire attack mechanisms. Although often noted, little work has been done to quantify the impact of fire generated or fire enhanced wind and pyro-convective events on house loss and to improve construction practice within Australia. It is well known that strong winds are always associated with bushfire events. It is less well known, although increasingly shown through anecdotal evidence, that bushfires are not a passive companion of wind, but indeed they interact with winds and can together cause significant damages to exposed buildings and ecological structures. Previous studies have revealed the effects of wind, fire and structure interactions with the result of increased pressure coefficient distributions on the windward side of a building downstream of a fire front. This paper presents a further analysis of the result in relations to the relevant standards and fire weather conditions. A review of wind code and bushfire code was conducted. Based on the result of the current study, the authors believe it is necessary to consider wind as an attack mechanism in bushfire events. The results of the study will also have implications on bushfire emergency management, design of emergency shelters, perception of danger, emergency evacuation and on risk assessment.

Department of Social Services Options Paper : Options for Replacement Arrangements Following the Abolition of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission : Response

Submission in response to government options paper regarding arrangements for regulation of charities following abolition of the Australian Charities and Not-for-profits Commission.

Senataxin plays an essential role with DNA damage response proteins in meiotic recombination and gene silencing

Senataxin, mutated in the human genetic disorder ataxia with oculomotor apraxia type 2 (AOA2), plays an important role in maintaining genome integrity by coordination of transcription, DNA replication, and the DNA damage response. We demonstrate that senataxin is essential for spermatogenesis and that it functions at two stages in meiosis during crossing-over in homologous recombination and in meiotic sex chromosome inactivation (MSCI). Disruption of the Setx gene caused persistence of DNA double-strand breaks, a defect in disassembly of Rad51 filaments, accumulation of DNA:RNA hybrids (R-loops), and ultimately a failure of crossing-over. Senataxin localised to the XY body in a Brca1-dependent manner, and in its absence there was incomplete localisation of DNA damage response proteins to the XY chromosomes and ATR was retained on the axial elements of these chromosomes, failing to diffuse out into chromatin. Furthermore persistence of RNA polymerase II activity, altered ubH2A distribution, and abnormal XY-linked gene expression in Setx⁻/⁻ revealed an essential role for senataxin in MSCI. These data support key roles for senataxin in coordinating meiotic crossing-over with transcription and in gene silencing to protect the integrity of the genome.