Iowa Beach Monitoring Program, 2007

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Transportation is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Gene expression profiling of human glioblastomas for the identification of predictive factors and characterisation of molecular mechanism implicated in response to therapy and outcome

ABSTRACT Poor outcome for glioblastoma patients is largely due to resistance to chemoradiation therapy. While epigenetic inactivation of MGMT mediated DNA repair is highly predictive for benefit from the alkylating agent therapy Temozolomide, additional mechanisms for resistance associated with molecular alterations exist. Furthermore, new concepts in cancer suggest that resistance to treatment may be linked to cancer stem cells that escape therapy and act as source for tumour recurrence. We determined gene expression signatures associated with outcome in glioblastoma patients enrolled in a phase II and phase III clinical trial establishing the new combination therapy of radiation plus concomitant and adjuvant Temozolomide. Correlating stable gene clusters emerging from unsupervised analysis with survival of 42 treated patients identified a number of biological processes associated with outcome. Most prominent, a gene cluster dominated by HOX genes and comprising PROM1, was associated with resistance. PROM1 encodes CD133, a marker for a subpopulation of tumour cells enriched for glioblastoma stem- like cells. The core of this correlated HOX cluster was comprised in the top genes of a "self-renewal signature" defined in a mouse model for MLL-AF9 initiated leukaemia. The association of the HOX gene cluster with tumour resistance was confirmed in two external data sets of 146 malignant glioma As additional resistance factors we identified over-expression of the epidermal growth factor receptor gene, EGFR, while increased gene expression related to biological features of tumour host interaction, including markers for tumour vascular and cell adhesion, and innate immune response, were associated with better outcome. The "self-renewal" signature associated with resistance to the new combination chemoradiation therapy provides first clinical evidence that glioma stem like cells may implicated in resistance in a uniformly treated cohort of glioblastoma patients. This study underlines the need to target the tumour stem cell compartment, and provides some testable hypothesis for biological mechanisms relevant for malignant behaviour of glioblastoma that may be targeted in new treatment approaches. Résumé Le glioblastome, tumeur cérébrale primaire maligne la plus fréquente, est connue pour son mauvais pronostique. Des avancées chimiothérapeutiques récentes avec des agents alkylants comme le témozolomide (TMZ), ont permis une amélioration notable dans la survie de certains patients. Les bénéficiaires ont la caractéristique commune de présenter une particularité génétique, la methylation du MGMT (methylguanine methyltransferase). Néanmoins, d'autres mécanismes de résistance en fonction des aberrations moléculaires existent. Nous avons établi les profils d'expressions génétiques des patients traités par irradiation et TMZ dans des études cliniques de phase II et III. En combinant des méthodes non-supervisées et supervisées, de l'étude de la cohorte des patients traités nous avons découvert des groupes de gènes associés à la survie. Un ensemble de gènes contenant les gènes Hox semble lié au mécanisme de résistance au traitement. Récemment, les gènes Hox ont été décrits comme faisant partie d"une signature d'autorenouvellement (self-renewal) des cellules souches cancéreuses de la leucémie. L'autorenouvellement est un processus grâce auquel les cellules souches se maintiennent tout au long de la vie. Cette association à la résistance est confirmée dans deux autres études indépendantes. Un autre facteur de résistance au traitement est la surexpression du gène EGFR. D'autre part, deux groupes de gènes associés à la relation entre hôte-tumeur tels que les marqueurs des vaisseaux tumoraux et de la réponse immunitaire innée s'avèrent avoir un effet positif sur la survie des patients traités. La découverte de la signature d'autorenouvellement comme facteur de résistance à la nouvelle chimio-radiothérapie offre une preuve clinique que les cellules souches cancéreuses sont impliquées dans la résistance au traitement. If est donc logique de penser que le traitement ciblé contre des cellules souches cancéreuses va dans l'avenir permettre des thérapies anticancéreuses plus performantes.

Evaluating predictive densities of U.S. output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set

We evaluate conditional predictive densities for U.S. output growth and inflationusing a number of commonly used forecasting models that rely on a large number ofmacroeconomic predictors. More specifically, we evaluate how well conditional predictive densities based on the commonly used normality assumption fit actual realizationsout-of-sample. Our focus on predictive densities acknowledges the possibility that, although some predictors can improve or deteriorate point forecasts, they might have theopposite effect on higher moments. We find that normality is rejected for most modelsin some dimension according to at least one of the tests we use. Interestingly, however,combinations of predictive densities appear to be correctly approximated by a normaldensity: the simple, equal average when predicting output growth and Bayesian modelaverage when predicting inflation.

Nocturnal hypoglycaemias in type 1 diabetic patients: what can we learn with continuous glucose monitoring?

AIM: In type 1 diabetic patients (T1DM), nocturnal hypoglycaemias (NH) are a serious complication of T1DM treatment; self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) is recommended to detect them. However, the majority of NH remains undetected on an occasional SMBG done during the night. An alternative strategy is the Continuous glucose monitoring (CGMS), which retrospectively shows the glycaemic profile. The aims of this retrospective study were to evaluate the true incidence of NH in T1DM, the best SMBG time to predict NH, the relationship between morning hyperglycaemia and NH (Somogyi phenomenon) and the utility of CGMS to reduce NH. METHODS: Eighty-eight T1DM who underwent a CGMS exam were included. Indications for CGMS evaluation, hypoglycaemias and correlation with morning hyperglycaemias were recorded. The efficiency of CGMS to reduce the suspected NH was evaluated after 6-9 months. RESULTS: The prevalence of NH was 67% (32% of them unsuspected). A measured hypoglycaemia at bedtime (22-24 h) had a sensitivity of 37% to detect NH (OR=2.37, P=0.001), while a single measure < or =4 mmol/l at 3-hour had a sensitivity of 43% (OR=4.60, P<0.001). NH were not associated with morning hyperglycaemias but with morning hypoglycaemias (OR=3.95, P<0.001). After 6-9 months, suspicions of NH decreased from 60 to 14% (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: NH were highly prevalent and often undetected. SMBG at bedtime, which detected hypoglycaemia had sensitivity almost equal to that of 3-hour and should be preferred because it is easier to perform. Somogyi phenomenon was not observed. CGMS is useful to reduce the risk of NH in 75% of patients.

LIF and sIL-2R plasma concentrations in IVF patients on the day of embryo transfer: predictive markers of IVF outcome.

Successful implantation is still the limiting step in IVF. We hypothesized that maternal plasma concentrations of certain cytokines at the time of embryo transfer could predict the likelihood of successful implantation and pregnancy. sIL-2R, IL-6, LIF, and MMP2 concentrations were measured in plasma from 160 IVF patients (natural and stimulated IVF cycles) on the morning of the embryo transfer (ET0) and 14days later (ET+14). Patients were ultimately subdivided into four groups depending on the IVF treatment outcome (pregnancy failure, biochemical pregnancy, first-trimester miscarriage and normal term delivery). In natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, sIL-2R concentrations were threefold higher in biochemical pregnancies than in pregnancy failures (P=0.020), and in natural cycles only, 2.5-fold higher in normal term deliveries than in pregnancy failures (P=0.023). Conversely, in natural and stimulated IVF cycles at ET0, LIF concentrations were one third lower in biochemical pregnancies/first-trimester miscarriages compared with pregnancy failures (P=0.042). We suggest that high sIL-2R and low LIF concentrations in maternal plasma on the morning of the embryo transfer might be associated with increased risks of early pregnancy loss, while a basal level of sIL-2R is necessary for normal term delivery outcome. Both cytokine measurements might therefore be useful in the management of IVF patients, and modulation of their concentrations could be investigated as a therapeutic alternative for women with abnormal concentrations at the time of embryo transfer.

Testing for convergence clubs in income per-capita: A predictive density approach

The paper proposes a technique to jointly test for groupings of unknown size in the cross sectional dimension of a panel and estimates the parameters of each group, and applies it to identifying convergence clubs in income per-capita. The approach uses the predictive density of the data, conditional on the parameters of the model. The steady state distribution of European regional data clusters around four poles of attraction with different economic features. The distribution of incomeper-capita of OECD countries has two poles of attraction and each grouphas clearly identifiable economic characteristics.

My older sibling was drunk - younger siblings' drunkenness in relation to parental monitoring and the parent-adolescent relationship.

This study explored the links between having older siblings who get drunk, satisfaction with the parent-adolescent relationship, parental monitoring, and adolescents' risky drinking. Regression models were conducted based on a national representative sample of 3725 8th to 10th graders in Switzerland (mean age 15.0, SD = .93) who indicated having older siblings. Results showed that both parental factors and older siblings' drinking behaviour shape younger siblings' frequency of risky drinking. Parental monitoring showed a linear dose-response relationship, and siblings' influence had an additive effect. There was a non-linear interaction effect between parent-adolescent relationship and older sibling's drunkenness. The findings suggest that, apart from avoiding an increasingly unsatisfactory relationship with their children, parental monitoring appears to be important in preventing risky drinking by their younger children, even if the older sibling drinks in such a way. However, a satisfying relationship with parents does not seem to be sufficient to counterbalance older siblings' influence.

MGMT promoter methylation is prognostic but not predictive for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy in anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors: a report from EORTC Brain Tumor Group Study 26951.

PURPOSE: O6-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation has been shown to predict survival of patients with glioblastomas if temozolomide is added to radiotherapy (RT). It is unknown if MGMT promoter methylation is also predictive to outcome to RT followed by adjuvant procarbazine, lomustine, and vincristine (PCV) chemotherapy in patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors (AOT). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In the European Organisation for the Research and Treatment of Cancer study 26951, 368 patients with AOT were randomly assigned to either RT alone or to RT followed by adjuvant PCV. From 165 patients of this study, formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tumor tissue was available for MGMT promoter methylation analysis. This was investigated with methylation specific multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification. RESULTS: In 152 cases, an MGMT result was obtained, in 121 (80%) cases MGMT promoter methylation was observed. Methylation strongly correlated with combined loss of chromosome 1p and 19q loss (P = .00043). In multivariate analysis, MGMT promoter methylation, 1p/19q codeletion, tumor necrosis, and extent of resection were independent prognostic factors. The prognostic significance of MGMT promoter methylation was equally strong in the RT arm and the RT/PCV arm for both progression-free survival and overall survival. In tumors diagnosed at central pathology review as glioblastoma, no prognostic effect of MGMT promoter methylation was observed. CONCLUSION: In this study, on patients with AOT MGMT promoter methylation was of prognostic significance and did not have predictive significance for outcome to adjuvant PCV chemotherapy. The biologic effect of MGMT promoter methylation or pathogenetic features associated with MGMT promoter methylation may be different for AOT compared with glioblastoma.

Financial intermediation and equity investment with costly monitoring

This paper studies the efficiency of equilibria in a productive OLG economy where the process of financial intermediation is characterized by costly state verification. Both competitive equilibria and Constrained Pareto Optimal allocations are characterized. It is shown that market outcomes can be socially inefficient, even when a weaker notion than Pareto optimality is considered.

Results of Wetland Monitoring 2005-2007

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Iowa's Beach Monitoring Program 2007, 2008

This monthly report from the Iowa Department of Natural Resources is about the water quality management of Iowa's rivers, streams and lakes.

Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria

This paper combines multivariate density forecasts of output growth, inflationand interest rates from a suite of models. An out-of-sample weighting scheme based onthe predictive likelihood as proposed by Eklund and Karlsson (2005) and Andersson andKarlsson (2007) is used to combine the models. Three classes of models are considered: aBayesian vector autoregression (BVAR), a factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR)and a medium-scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Using Australiandata, we find that, at short forecast horizons, the Bayesian VAR model is assignedthe most weight, while at intermediate and longer horizons the factor model is preferred.The DSGE model is assigned little weight at all horizons, a result that can be attributedto the DSGE model producing density forecasts that are very wide when compared withthe actual distribution of observations. While a density forecast evaluation exercise revealslittle formal evidence that the optimally combined densities are superior to those from thebest-performing individual model, or a simple equal-weighting scheme, this may be a resultof the short sample available.