Estimation of ravine sediment production and sediment dynamics in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, Minnesota

This study focuses on quantifying explicitly the sediment budget of deeply incised ravines in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, in southern Minnesota. High-rate-gully-erosion equations along with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were implemented in a numerical modeling approach that is based on a time-integration of the sediment balance equations. The model estimates the rates of ravine width and depth change and the amount of sediment periodically flushing from the ravines. Components of the sediment budget of the ravines were simulated with the model and results suggest that the ravine walls are the major sediment source in the ravines. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the erodibility coefficients of the gully bed and wall, the local slope angle and the Manning’s coefficient are the key parameters controlling the rate of sediment production. Recommendations to guide further monitoring efforts in the watershed and increased detail modeling approaches are highlighted as a result of this modeling effort.

Lake metabolism and the diel oxygen technique: State of the science

Significant improvements have been made in estimating gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R), and net ecosystem production (NEP) from diel, “free-water” changes in dissolved oxygen (DO). Here we evaluate some of the assumptions and uncertainties that are still embedded in the technique and provide guidelines on how to estimate reliable metabolic rates from high-frequency sonde data. True whole-system estimates are often not obtained because measurements reflect an unknown zone of influence which varies over space and time. A minimum logging frequency of 30 min was sufficient to capture metabolism at the daily time scale. Higher sampling frequencies capture additional pattern in the DO data, primarily related to physical mixing. Causes behind the often large daily variability are discussed and evaluated for an oligotrophic and a eutrophic lake. Despite a 3-fold higher day-to-day variability in absolute GPP rates in the eutrophic lake, both lakes required at least 3 sonde days per week for GPP estimates to be within 20% of the weekly average. A sensitivity analysis evaluated uncertainties associated with DO measurements, piston velocity (k), and the assumption that daytime R equals nighttime R. In low productivity lakes, uncertainty in DO measurements and piston velocity strongly impacts R but has no effect on GPP or NEP. Lack of accounting for higher R during the day underestimates R and GPP but has no effect on NEP. We finally provide suggestions for future research to improve the technique.

The role of recharge and evapotranspiration as hydraulic drivers of ion concentrations in shallow groundwater on Everglades tree islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

The Role of Recharge and Evapotranspiration as Hydraulic Drivers of Ion Concentrations in Shallow Groundwater on Everglades Tree Islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

A Methodological Framework for Modeling Pavement Maintenance Costs for Projects with Performance-based Contracts

Performance-based maintenance contracts differ significantly from material and method-based contracts that have been traditionally used to maintain roads. Road agencies around the world have moved towards a performance-based contract approach because it offers several advantages like cost saving, better budgeting certainty, better customer satisfaction with better road services and conditions. Payments for the maintenance of road are explicitly linked to the contractor successfully meeting certain clearly defined minimum performance indicators in these contracts. Quantitative evaluation of the cost of performance-based contracts has several difficulties due to the complexity of the pavement deterioration process. Based on a probabilistic analysis of failures of achieving multiple performance criteria over the length of the contract period, an effort has been made to develop a model that is capable of estimating the cost of these performance-based contracts. One of the essential functions of such model is to predict performance of the pavement as accurately as possible. Prediction of future degradation of pavement is done using Markov Chain Process, which requires estimating transition probabilities from previous deterioration rate for similar pavements. Transition probabilities were derived using historical pavement condition rating data, both for predicting pavement deterioration when there is no maintenance, and for predicting pavement improvement when maintenance activities are performed. A methodological framework has been developed to estimate the cost of maintaining road based on multiple performance criteria such as crack, rut and, roughness. The application of the developed model has been demonstrated via a real case study of Miami Dade Expressways (MDX) using pavement condition rating data from Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) for a typical performance-based asphalt pavement maintenance contract. Results indicated that the pavement performance model developed could predict the pavement deterioration quite accurately. Sensitivity analysis performed shows that the model is very responsive to even slight changes in pavement deterioration rate and performance constraints. It is expected that the use of this model will assist the highway agencies and contractors in arriving at a fair contract value for executing long term performance-based pavement maintenance works.

Estimation of Ravine Sediment Production and Sediment Dynamics in the Lower Le Sueur River Watershed, Minnesota

This study focuses on quantifying explicitly the sediment budget of deeply incised ravines in the lower Le Sueur River watershed, in southern Minnesota. High-rate-gully-erosion equations along with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were implemented in a numerical modeling approach that is based on a time-integration of the sediment balance equations. The model estimates the rates of ravine width and depth change and the amount of sediment periodically flushing from the ravines. Components of the sediment budget of the ravines were simulated with the model and results suggest that the ravine walls are the major sediment source in the ravines. A sensitivity analysis revealed that the erodibility coefficients of the gully bed and wall, the local slope angle and the Manning’s coefficient are the key parameters controlling the rate of sediment production. Recommendations to guide further monitoring efforts in the watershed and increased detail modeling approaches are highlighted as a result of this modeling effort.

Improved Criteria for Estimating Calibration Factors for Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Applications

The Highway Safety Manual (HSM) estimates roadway safety performance based on predictive models that were calibrated using national data. Calibration factors are then used to adjust these predictive models to local conditions for local applications. The HSM recommends that local calibration factors be estimated using 30 to 50 randomly selected sites that experienced at least a total of 100 crashes per year. It also recommends that the factors be updated every two to three years, preferably on an annual basis. However, these recommendations are primarily based on expert opinions rather than data-driven research findings. Furthermore, most agencies do not have data for many of the input variables recommended in the HSM. This dissertation is aimed at determining the best way to meet three major data needs affecting the estimation of calibration factors: (1) the required minimum sample sizes for different roadway facilities, (2) the required frequency for calibration factor updates, and (3) the influential variables affecting calibration factors. In this dissertation, statewide segment and intersection data were first collected for most of the HSM recommended calibration variables using a Google Maps application. In addition, eight years (2005-2012) of traffic and crash data were retrieved from existing databases from the Florida Department of Transportation. With these data, the effect of sample size criterion on calibration factor estimates was first studied using a sensitivity analysis. The results showed that the minimum sample sizes not only vary across different roadway facilities, but they are also significantly higher than those recommended in the HSM. In addition, results from paired sample t-tests showed that calibration factors in Florida need to be updated annually. To identify influential variables affecting the calibration factors for roadway segments, the variables were prioritized by combining the results from three different methods: negative binomial regression, random forests, and boosted regression trees. Only a few variables were found to explain most of the variation in the crash data. Traffic volume was consistently found to be the most influential. In addition, roadside object density, major and minor commercial driveway densities, and minor residential driveway density were also identified as influential variables.

Estabilização de órbitas periódicas instáveis utilizando controle por modos deslizantes com compensação adaptativa

The chaotic behavior has been widely observed in nature, from physical and chemical phenomena to biological systems, present in many engineering applications and found in both simple mechanical oscillators and advanced communication systems. With regard to mechanical systems, the effects of nonlinearities on the dynamic behavior of the system are often of undesirable character, which has motivated the development of compensation strategies. However, it has been recently found that there are situations in which the richness of nonlinear dynamics becomes attractive. Due to their parametric sensitivity, chaotic systems can suffer considerable changes by small variations on the value of their parameters, which is extremely favorable when we want to give greater flexibility to the controlled system. Hence, we analyze in this work the parametric sensitivity of Duffing oscillator, in particular its unstable periodic orbits and Poincar´e section due to changes in nominal value of the parameter that multiplies the cubic term. Since the amount of energy needed to stabilize Unstable Periodic Orbits is minimum, we analyze the control action needed to control and stabilize such orbits which belong to different versions of the Duffing oscillator. For that we will use a smoothed sliding mode controller with an adaptive compensation term based on Fourier series.

Análise comparativa de diferentes configurações de poços no processo de combustão in-situ

With an increasing number of mature fields, heavy oil recovery has performed one of the great challenges of the oil industry. The Brazilian Northeast, for example, has numerous heavy oil reservoirs are explored with the use of thermal methods. Among the types of methods used for heavy oil, there is the method of in-situ combustion, a technique in which heat is produced within the container, unlike the injection of heated fluid when the heat is generated at the surface and transported to the reservoir. In this type of process, it is common to use vertical wells as injectors and producers. However, methods which use horizontal wells like oil producers are increasingly studied because of greater contact area between the formation and combustion front. Thus, the main objective of this work was to study the different configurations of wells (CIS THAITM and CAGD) in the process of in-situ combustion in oil recovery using a semi-synthetic tank with Brazilian Northeast features. The method "toe-to-heel air injection" (THAITM) is a process of enhanced oil recovery, which is the integration of in-situ combustion with technological advances in drilling horizontal wells. This method uses horizontal wells such as oil producers, keeping vertical injection wells for injecting air. The oil drain process by differential gravitational assisted with combustion (CAGD) is an integrated, in this configuration the horizontal injector well is drilled at the top formation with a horizontal production well in the lower section. The simulations were performed in a commercial program of thermal processes, called "STARS" (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator), the company CMG (Computer Modelling Group). An analysis of the air flow injection was performed and it was found that each method had a maximum injection to the base model, a show that through this air injection limit was reduced cumulative production of oil. Analyses of operating parameters were used: injection flow, configuration and completion of wells. In the sensitivity analysis we found that the air injection flow showed greater influence on THAI method, since the CIS method the completion of the wells was the most influential parameter and CAGD configuration wells showed the greatest influence in the recovered fraction. The economic results have shown that the best case obtained in CAGD method because, despite having higher initial cost showed the best financial return compared to the best cases the CIS and THAI.

Análise comparativa de diferentes configurações de poços no processo de combustão in-situ

With an increasing number of mature fields, heavy oil recovery has performed one of the great challenges of the oil industry. The Brazilian Northeast, for example, has numerous heavy oil reservoirs are explored with the use of thermal methods. Among the types of methods used for heavy oil, there is the method of in-situ combustion, a technique in which heat is produced within the container, unlike the injection of heated fluid when the heat is generated at the surface and transported to the reservoir. In this type of process, it is common to use vertical wells as injectors and producers. However, methods which use horizontal wells like oil producers are increasingly studied because of greater contact area between the formation and combustion front. Thus, the main objective of this work was to study the different configurations of wells (CIS THAITM and CAGD) in the process of in-situ combustion in oil recovery using a semi-synthetic tank with Brazilian Northeast features. The method "toe-to-heel air injection" (THAITM) is a process of enhanced oil recovery, which is the integration of in-situ combustion with technological advances in drilling horizontal wells. This method uses horizontal wells such as oil producers, keeping vertical injection wells for injecting air. The oil drain process by differential gravitational assisted with combustion (CAGD) is an integrated, in this configuration the horizontal injector well is drilled at the top formation with a horizontal production well in the lower section. The simulations were performed in a commercial program of thermal processes, called "STARS" (Steam, Thermal, and Advanced Processes Reservoir Simulator), the company CMG (Computer Modelling Group). An analysis of the air flow injection was performed and it was found that each method had a maximum injection to the base model, a show that through this air injection limit was reduced cumulative production of oil. Analyses of operating parameters were used: injection flow, configuration and completion of wells. In the sensitivity analysis we found that the air injection flow showed greater influence on THAI method, since the CIS method the completion of the wells was the most influential parameter and CAGD configuration wells showed the greatest influence in the recovered fraction. The economic results have shown that the best case obtained in CAGD method because, despite having higher initial cost showed the best financial return compared to the best cases the CIS and THAI.

Effects of seasonally varying temperature and salinity on the dynamics of sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis)

Sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) are an economically significant parasite in salmonid aquaculture. They exhibit temperature-dependent development rates and salinity-dependent mortality, which can greatly impact sea lice population dynamics, but no deterministic models have incorporated these seasonal variables. To understand how seasonality affects sea lice population dynamics, I derive a delay differential equation model with temperature and salinity dependence. I find that peak reproductive output in Newfoundland and British Columbia differs by four months. A sensitivity analysis shows sea lice abundance is most sensitive to variation in mean annual water temperature and salinity, whereas it is lease sensitive to infection rate. Additionally, I investigate the effects of production cycle timing on sea lice management and find that optimal production cycle start times are between the 281st and 337th days of the year in Newfoundland. I also demonstrate that adjusting follow-up treatment timing in response to temperature can improve treatment regimes. My results suggest that effective sea lice management requires consideration of local temperature and salinity patterns.

Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix, supplementary material

Siberian boreal forests are expected to expand northwards in the course of global warming. However, processes of the treeline ecotone transition, as well astiming and related climate feedbacks are still not understood. Here, we present 'Larix Vegetation Simulator' LAVESI, an individual-based spatially-explicit model that can simulate Larix gmelinii (RUPR.) RUPR. stand dynamics in an attempt to improve our understanding about past and future treeline movements under changing climates. The relevant processes (growth, seed production and dispersal, establishment and mortality) are incorporated and adjusted to observation data mainly gained from the literature. Results of a local sensitivity analysis support the robustness of the model's parameterization by giving relatively small sensitivity values. We tested the model by simulating tree stands under modern climate across the whole Taymyr Peninsula, north-central Siberia (c. 64-80° N; 92-119° E). We find tree densities similar to observed forests in the northern to mid-treeline areas, but densities are overestimated in the southern parts of the simulated region. Finally, from a temperature-forcing experiment, we detect that the responses of tree stands lag the hypothetical warming by several decades, until the end of 21st century. With our simulation experiments we demonstrate that the newly-developed model captures the dynamics of the Siberian latitudinal treeline.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

Results of Closed-Flow Column Experiments (zip-archive 2.3 MB)

The identification of transport parameters by inverse modeling often suffers from equifinality or parameter correlation when models are fitted to observations of the solute breakthrough in column outflow experiments. This parameters uncertainty can be approached by the application of multiple experimental designs such as column experiments in open-flow mode and the recently proposed closed-flow mode. Latter are characterized by the recirculation of the column effluent into the solution supply vessel that feeds the inflow. Depending on the experimental conditions, the solute concentration in the solution supply vessel and the effluent follows a damped sinusoidal oscillation. As a result, the closed-flow experiment provides additional observables in the breakthrough curve. The evaluation of these emergent features allows intrinsic control over boundary conditions and impacts the uncertainty of parameters in inverse modeling. We present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis to illustrate the potential application of closed-flow experiments. We show that the sensitivity with respect to the apparent dispersion can be controlled by the experimenter leading to a decrease in parameter uncertainty as compared to classical experiments by an order of magnitude for optimal settings. With these finding we are also able to reduce the equifinality found for situations, where rate-limited interactions impede a proper determination of the apparent dispersion and rate coefficients. Furthermore, we show the expected breakthrough curve for equilibrium and kinetic sorption, the latter showing strong similarities to the behavior found for completely mixed batch reactor experiments. This renders the closed-flow mode a useful complementary approach to classical column experiments.

Presence and possible cause of periodicities in 20th-century extreme coastal surge: Belfast Harbour, Northern Ireland.

Identifying 20th-century periodic coastal surge variation is strategic for the 21st-century coastal surge estimates, as surge periodicities may amplify/reduce future MSL enhanced surge forecasts. Extreme coastal surge data from Belfast Harbour (UK) tide gauges are available for 1901–2010 and provide the potential for decadal-plus periodic coastal surge analysis. Annual extreme surge-elevation distributions (sampled every 10-min) are analysed using PCA and cluster analysis to decompose variation within- and between-years to assess similarity of years in terms of Surge Climate Types, and to establish significance of any transitions in Type occurrence over time using non-parametric Markov analysis. Annual extreme surge variation is shown to be periodically organised across the 20th century. Extreme surge magnitude and distribution show a number of significant cyclonic induced multi-annual (2, 3, 5 & 6 years) cycles, as well as dominant multi-decadal (15–25 years) cycles of variation superimposed on an 80 year fluctuation in atmospheric–oceanic variation across the North Atlantic (relative to NAO/AMO interaction). The top 30 extreme surge events show some relationship with NAO per se, given that 80% are associated with westerly dominant atmospheric flows (+ NAO), but there are 20% of the events associated with blocking air massess (− NAO). Although 20% of the top 30 ranked positive surges occurred within the last twenty years, there is no unequivocal evidence of recent acceleration in extreme surge magnitude related to other than the scale of natural periodic variation.