Evaluation of growth and changes in body composition following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis

Early deficits in nutritional status that might require specific treatment and early response to nutritional therapy were studied longitudinally in 25 infants with cystic fibrosis (CF) diagnosed by neonatal screening, using anthropometric and research body composition methodology, and evaluation of pancreatic function. At the time of confirmed diagnosis (mean 5.4 weeks), body mass, length, total body fat (TBF), and total body potassium (TBK) were all significantly reduced. Following diagnosis and commencement of therapy there was a normalization of weight, length, and TBK by 6-12 months of age, indicating catch-up growth. But in some individuals the response was incomplete, and as a group, mean total body fat remained significantly lower than normal at 1 year of age. Seven of 25 (28%) were pancreatic sufficient at diagnosis, and all but one had evidence of declining pancreatic function requiring the institution of pancreatic enzyme therapy during the next 1-9 months. The median age of commencement of enzyme therapy was 10 weeks (range 5 weeks to 11 months). These longitudinal assessments emphasize the dynamic changes occurring in absorptive function, body composition, and nutritional status following neonatal diagnosis of cystic fibrosis and may reflect previously described abnormalities of energy metabolism in this age group. Abnormal body composition is evident in most CF infants following diagnosis by neonatal screening but pancreatic damage may still be evolving. We suggest that early active nutritional therapy and surveillance for changes in pancreatic function are warranted in CF infants diagnosed by neonatal screening.

Happily ever after: Romance, gender and the building blocks of domestic violence

My sister describes the state of something being a psychological or personal 'issue' - such as a trauma, compulsion, phobia, or obsession - as having 'brain spaghetti'. For example, apparently she has spaghetti about me pinning her down as a child and tickling her until she screamed for mercy. She knows this because when her spouse tried to do the same, the experience she had as a child came flooding back as a complex tangle of fears, feelings, and mental images. Notwithstanding the trauma inflicted on a sibling in my youth, the spaghetti metaphor is a simple but useful tool for explaining how complex our experiences are, and I bring it up here because I believe a lot of people have spaghetti about love. So much so, that often love becomes distorted, sometimes to the point of making one completely blind to manipulation and abuse. Part of the blame for 'love spaghetti' can be allotted to media depictions of romance and gender, which helps entrench and maintain our deeply held beliefs about what relationships should look like.

Studio portrait of Dorothea (Dola) Guttmann Portraits Women

Handwritten dedication on verso: To my very dear aunt and uncle, with love Dola Oct. '45

Writing fashion’s future: the gods and monsters of the Anthropocene

This paper identifies two narratives of the Anthropocene and explores how they play out in the realm of future-looking fashion production. Each narrative draws on mythic comparisons to gods and monsters to express humanity’s dilemmas, albeit from different perspectives. The first is a Malthusian narrative of collapse and scarcity, brought about by the monstrous, unstoppable nature of human technology set loose on the natural world. In this vein, philosopher Slavoj Zizek (2010) draws on Biblical analogies, likening ecological crisis to one of the four horsemen of the apocalypse. To find a myth to suit the present times, novelist A.S Byatt (2011) proposes Ragnarök, a Norse myth in which the gods destroy themselves. In contrast, the second narrative is one of technological cornucopia. Stewart Brand (2009, 27), self-described ‘eco-pragmatist’ writes, ‘we are as gods and we have to get good at it’. In his view, human technologies offer the only hope to mitigating the problems caused by human technology – Brand suggests harnessing nuclear power, bioengineering of crops and the geoengineering of the planet as the way forward. Similarly, the French philosopher Bruno Latour (2012, 274), exhorts us to “love our monsters”, likening our technologies to Doctor Frankenstein’s monster – set loose upon the world, and then reviled by his creator. For both Brand and Latour, human technology may be monstrous, but it must also be turned toward solutions. Within this schema, hopeful visions of the future of fashion are similarly divided. In the techno-enabled cornucopian future, the fashion industry embraces wearable technology, speed and efficiency. Technologies such as waterless dyeing, 3D printing and self-cleaning garments shift fashion into a new era of cleaner production. Meanwhile, in the narrative of scarcity, a more cautious approach sees fashion return to a new localism and valuing of the hand-made in a time of shrinking resources. Through discussion of future-looking fashion designers, brands, and activists, this paper explores how they may align along a spectrum to one of these two grand narratives of the future. The paper will discuss how these narratives may unconsciously shape the perspective of both producers and users around the fashion of today and the fashion of tomorrow. This paper poses the question: what stories can be written for fashion’s future in the Anthropocene, and are they fated, or can they be re-written?

Finite-amplitude love-waves on an isotropic layered half-space

A pair of semi-linear hyperbolic partial differential equations governing the slow variations in amplitude and phase of a quasi-monochromatic finite-amplitude Love-wave on an isotropic layered half-space is derived using the method of multiple-scales. The analysis of the exact solution of these equations for a signalling problem reveals that the amplitude of the wave remains constant along its characteristic and that the phase of the wave increases linearly behind the wave-front.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Frequency of dressing changes for central venous access devices on catheter-related infections

Background People admitted to intensive care units and those with chronic health care problems often require long-term vascular access. Central venous access devices (CVADs) are used for administering intravenous medications and blood sampling. CVADs are covered with a dressing and secured with an adhesive or adhesive tape to protect them from infection and reduce movement. Dressings are changed when they become soiled with blood or start to come away from the skin. Repeated removal and application of dressings can cause damage to the skin. The skin is an important barrier that protects the body against infection. Less frequent dressing changes may reduce skin damage, but it is unclear whether this practice affects the frequency of catheter-related infections. Objectives To assess the effect of the frequency of CVAD dressing changes on the incidence of catheter-related infections and other outcomes including pain and skin damage. Search methods In June 2015 we searched: The Cochrane Wounds Specialised Register; The Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library); Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid MEDLINE (In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations); Ovid EMBASE and EBSCO CINAHL. We also searched clinical trials registries for registered trials. There were no restrictions with respect to language, date of publication or study setting. Selection criteria All randomised controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the effect of the frequency of CVAD dressing changes on the incidence of catheter-related infections on all patients in any healthcare setting. Data collection and analysis We used standard Cochrane review methodology. Two review authors independently assessed studies for inclusion, performed risk of bias assessment and data extraction. We undertook meta-analysis where appropriate or otherwise synthesised data descriptively when heterogeneous. Main results We included five RCTs (2277 participants) that compared different frequencies of CVAD dressing changes. The studies were all conducted in Europe and published between 1995 and 2009. Participants were recruited from the intensive care and cancer care departments of one children's and four adult hospitals. The studies used a variety of transparent dressings and compared a longer interval between dressing changes (5 to15 days; intervention) with a shorter interval between changes (2 to 5 days; control). In each study participants were followed up until the CVAD was removed or until discharge from ICU or hospital. - Confirmed catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) One trial randomised 995 people receiving central venous catheters to a longer or shorter interval between dressing changes and measured CRBSI. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of CRBSI between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40 to 4.98) (low quality evidence). - Suspected catheter-related bloodstream infection Two trials randomised a total of 151 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured suspected CRBSI. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of suspected CRBSI between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 0.70, 95% CI 0.23 to 2.10) (low quality evidence). - All cause mortality Three trials randomised a total of 896 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured all cause mortality. It is unclear whether there is a difference in the risk of death from any cause between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.06, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.25) (low quality evidence). - Catheter-site infection Two trials randomised a total of 371 participants to longer or shorter dressing intervals and measured catheter-site infection. It is unclear whether there is a difference in risk of catheter-site infection between people having long or short intervals between dressing changes (RR 1.07, 95% CI 0.71 to 1.63) (low quality evidence). - Skin damage One small trial (112 children) and three trials (1475 adults) measured skin damage. There was very low quality evidence for the effect of long intervals between dressing changes on skin damage compared with short intervals (children: RR of scoring ≥ 2 on the skin damage scale 0.33, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.68; data for adults not pooled). - Pain Two studies involving 193 participants measured pain. It is unclear if there is a difference between long and short interval dressing changes on pain during dressing removal (RR 0.80, 95% CI 0.46 to 1.38) (low quality evidence). Authors' conclusions The best available evidence is currently inconclusive regarding whether longer intervals between CVAD dressing changes are associated with more or less catheter-related infection, mortality or pain than shorter intervals.

The Mediated Immediacy : João Batista Libanio and the Question of Latin American Liberation Theology

This study is a systematic analysis of mediated immediacy in the production of the Brazilian professor of theology João Batista Libanio. He stresses both ethical mediation and the immediate character of the faith. Libanio has sought an answer to the problem of science and faith. He makes use of the neo-scholastic distinction between matter and form. According to St. Thomas Aquinas, God cannot be known as a scientific object, but it is possible to predicate a formal theological content of other subject matter with the help of revelation. This viewpoint was emphasized in neo-Thomism and supported by the liberation theologians. For them, the material starting point was social science. It becomes a theologizable or revealable (revelabile) reality. This social science has its roots in Latin American Marxism which was influenced by the school of Louis Althusser and considered Marxism a science of history . The synthesis of Thomism and Marxism is a challenge Libanio faced, especially in his Teologia da libertação from 1987. He emphasized the need for a genuinely spiritual and ethical discernment, and was particularly critical of the ethical implications of class struggle. Libanio s thinking has a strong hermeneutic flavor. It is more important to understand than to explain. He does not deny the need for social scientific data, but that they cannot be the exclusive starting point of theology. There are different readings of the world, both scientific and theological. A holistic understanding of the nature of religious experience is needed. Libanio follows the interpretation given by H. C. de Lima Vaz, according to whom the Hegelian dialectic is a rational circulation between the totality and its parts. He also recalls Oscar Cullmann s idea of God s Kingdom that is already and not yet . In other words, there is a continuous mediation of grace into the natural world. This dialectic is reflected in ethics. Faith must be verified in good works. Libanio uses the Thomist fides caritate formata principle and the modern orthopraxis thinking represented by Edward Schillebeeckx. One needs both the ortho of good faith and the praxis of the right action. The mediation of praxis is the mediation of human and divine love. Libanio s theology has strong roots in the Jesuit spirituality that places the emphasis on contemplation in action.

Holistic Spirituality in the Thinking of Ellen White

Spiritualiteetti viittaa syvälliseen, inhimilliseen ulottuvuuteen ja ominaisuuteen, jonka tarkka määritteleminen on haasteellista, ellei mahdotonta. Sitä vastaa yhtäältä uskonnollisuuden kautta toteutuva, elämän tarkoitukseen ja syvemmän olemuksen etsintään liittyvä hengellisyys, mutta toisaalta myös kaikkea muuta hengen viljelyä ja mielekkään olemisen tavoittelua tarkoittava henkisyys. John Swintonin mukaan hengen ulottuvuus on se inhimilliseen olemukseen kuuluva, dynaaminen elinvoima, joka virkistää ja elävöittää ihmistä ja motivoi häntä etsimään Jumalaa, arvoja, merkitystä, tarkoitusta ja toivoa. Tämä tutkimus nostaa tarkastelun kohteeksi kokonaisvaltaisen hengellisyyden, jolloin huomio kiinnitetään niihin sidoksiin, joiden kautta hengen ulottuvuus liittyy muihin inhimillisen elämän olennaisiin toimintoihin ja näkökulmiin. Tällaisia ovat 1) ajattelu 2) teot ja käytännön toiminta 3) suhteet ja vuorovaikutusverkostot 4) tunteet ja kanssakäymistä ohjaavat asenteet 5) olemassaolon ja olemisen ulottuvuudet. Kokemusten merkitys, arvo ja mielekkyys hahmottuvat juuri hengen alueella, toisin sanoen sisäisesti, hengellisenä ja henkisenä asiana. Tutkimusmateriaalina tässä tutkimuksessa on amerikkalaisen vuosina 1827 1915 eläneen Ellen Whiten kuusi myöhäiskauden teosta vuosilta 1892 1905 ja tutkimusmenetelmänä on käytetty systemaattista analyysiä. Olennaista Whiten tavassa käsitellä uskonnon harjoitukseen liittyviä aiheita on hänen käytännöllinen ja elämän arkeen kiinteästi niveltyvä otteensa. Tutkimus paljastaa, että Martti Lutherin käsitykset ovat merkittävästi vaikuttaneet Whiten ajatteluun. Lähteistä paljastuu samankaltaisuutta hänen näkemystensä ja uusimman suomalaisen Luther-tutkimuksen Martti Lutherin tuotannosta esiin nostaman ajattelutavan välillä. Vaikka teologisen oppineisuuden kannalta White ja Luther ovat eri tasoilla, kummankin käsitys ihmisen ja Jumalan välisen suhteen perusolemuksesta on samankaltainen: Lähtökohtana sille on Jumalan rakkaus ja hänen armostaan lähtenyt toiminta. Toiseksi, ihmisen ja Kristuksen välinen, olemuksellinen yhteys, unio , on perustana sille, että Jumala hyväksyy ihmisen ja huolehtii hänestä nyt ja ikuisesti. Kolmanneksi, tämä ihmisen ja Kristuksen liittoutuminen ja yhdistyminen ilmenee yhteistoimintana ja kumppanuutena yhteisten tavoitteiden saavuttamiseksi maailmassa. White korostaa ihmisen ja Kristuksen välisen hengellisen suhteen vuorovaikutteista ja toiminnallista luonnetta, joka tulee ilmi epäitsekkyytenä, toisten ihmisten ja heidän tarpeittensa huomioimisena sekä myötätuntona ja kykynä asettua toisen asemaan. Terveellistä elämäntapaa ja kasvatusta koskevat ajatuksensa White liittää siihen laaja-alaiseen näkemykseen hengellisyydestä, jonka tavoitteena on ihmisen kokonaisvaltainen hyvinvointi. Hän ei näe spiritualiteettia elämän arjesta irrallisena tai erillisenä saarekkeena, vaan ihmistä kaikessa ohjaavana, voimaannuttavana ja mielekkyyttä tuottavana, ensisijaisena ulottuvuutena. Tutkimuksen kuluessa myös Whiten usein käyttämät Jumalalle antautumisen ja luonteen käsitteet nousevat tarkastelun kohteiksi. Hänen mukaansa ihminen ei tahdonponnistuksillaan yksin pysty tavoittamaan Jumalaa vaan hänen on lakattava Jumalan rakastavan kutsun edessä itse tahtomasta ja suostuttava liittymään Jumalan tahtoon ja tarkoitukseen. Tämä liittyy siihen sisäiseen muutokseen, jota White kuvaa luonteen käsitteen avulla. Jumalan armon vaikuttama tahdon uudelleen suuntaaminen muuttaa ihmisen olemusta, arvoja, asennoitumisen tapaa ja myötätuntoisen vuorovaikutuksen kykyä niin ettei ihminen ole enää aivan sama kuin ennen. Kysymys on toisaalta yhtäkkisestä ja kertakaikkisesta olemuksellisesta muuttumisesta, mutta samalla myös hiljaisesta, elämänmittaisesta kasvusta ja kypsymisestä. Juuri luonteen käsitteen avulla White kuvaa hengellisyyttä ja siihen kuuluvaa sisästä matkaa. Tässä tutkimuksessa spiritualiteettia lähestytään yleisinhimillisenä piirteenä ja ominaisuutena, jolloin huomio ei ole ensisijaisesti yksittäisissä opillisissa käsityksissä tai uskonnollisuuden harjoittamisen muodoissa. Tarkoituksena on luoda kokoava rakenne, jonka puitteissa holistinen spiritualiteetti voidaan selkeämmin hahmottaa ja yksilöidymmin ymmärtää.

The Nature, Origins, and Consequences of Finnish Shame-Proneness: A Grounded Theory Study

Although shame is a universal human emotion and is one of the most difficult emotions to overcome, its origins and nature as well as its effects on psychosocial functioning are not well understood or defined. While psychological and spiritual counselors are aware of the effects and consequences of shame for an individual s internal well-being and social life, shame is often still considered a taboo topic and is not given adequate attention. This study aims to explain the developmental process and effects of shame and shame-proneness for individuals and provide tools for practitioners to work more effectively with their clients who struggle with shame. This study presents the empirical foundation for a grounded theory that describes and explains the nature, origins, and consequences of shame-proneness. The study focused on Finnish participants childhood, adolescence and adulthood experiences and why they developed shame-proneness, what it meant for them as children and adolescents and what it meant for them as adults. The data collection phase of this study began in 2000. The participants were recruited through advertisements in local and country-wide newspapers and magazines. Altogether 325 people responded to the advertisements by sending an essay concerning their shame and guilt experiences. For the present study, 135 essays were selected and from those who sent an essay 19 were selected for in-depth interviews. In addition to essays and interviews, participants personal notebooks and childhood hospital and medical reports as well as their scores on the Internalized Shame Scale were analyzed. The development of shame-proneness and significant experiences and events during childhood and adolescence (e.g., health, parenting and parents behavior, humiliation, bullying, neglect, maltreatment and abuse) are discussed and the connections of shame-proneness to psychological concepts such as self-esteem, attachment, perfectionism, narcissism, submissiveness, pleasing others, heightened interpersonal subjectivity, and codependence are explained. Relationships and effects of shame-proneness on guilt, spirituality, temperament, coping strategies, defenses, personality formation and psychological health are also explicated. In addition, shame expressions and the development of shame triggers as well as internalized and externalized shame are clarified. These connections and developments are represented by the core category lack of gaining love, validation and protection as the authentic self. The conclusions drawn from the study include a categorization of shame-prone Finnish people according to their childhood and adolescent experiences and the characteristics of their shame-proneness and personality. Implications for psychological and spiritual counseling are also discussed. Key words: shame, internalized shame, external shame, shame development, shame triggers, guilt, self-esteem, attachment, narcissism, perfectionism, submissiveness, codependence, childhood neglect, childhood abuse, childhood maltreatment, emotional abuse, sexual abuse, spiritual abuse, psychological well-being

Christian-Muslim Dialogue : Perspectives of Four Lebanese Thinkers

This study describes and analyses two Lebanese Muslims and two Lebanese Christians ideas about Christian-Muslim dialogue, its nature, aims, and methods and its different dimensions, which include doctrinal, ethical, and social dimensions. On the basis of the analysis, the four thinkers contributions for promoting constructive dialogue are evaluated. The persons studied are two religious authorities, the Shiite Great Ayatollah Muhammad Husayn Fadlallah (b. 1935) and the Eastern Orthodox Metropolitan of Mount Lebanon, Georges Khodr (b. 1923), and two academic scholars, Doctor Mahmoud Ayoub (b. 1935) and Doctor, Father Mouchir Aoun (b. 1964), from the Shiite and Greek Catholic communities, respectively. The method of the study is systematic analysis. The sources consist of the four thinkers writings on Christian-Muslim relations, the most of which have been published in Lebanon in the 1990s and 2000s in the Arabic language. In their general guidelines for Christian-Muslim dialogue, the four authors do not offer any novel or unusual insights. However, their dialogue visions are multi-faceted, motivating interreligious encounter both on religious and practical grounds and clarifying the theological grounds and socio-political conditions of this endeavour. The major challenge appears to be the tension between loyalty to one s own convictions and taking into account the particular self-understanding of the other. While this tension may be ultimately unsolvable, it is obvious that linking dialogue tightly to missionary motivations or certain theological agenda imposed on the others is not conducive for better mutual understanding. As for how diverse theologies of religions affect interreligious dialogue, narrow exclusivism hardly promotes mutual knowledge and appreciation, but also inclusive and pluralistic positions have their particular dilemmas. In the end, dialogue is possible from diverse positions on theology of religions. All the authors discuss the theological themes of divine revelation, concept of God, and human condition and ultimate destiny. The two religions particular views on these issues cannot be reconciled, but the authors offer diverse means to facilitate mutual understanding on them, such as increasing mutual knowledge, questioning certain traditional condemnations, showing theological parallels between the two religions, and transcending doctrinal disagreements by stressing common religious experience or ethical concerns. Among the theological themes, especially the concept of God seems to offer possibilities for better understanding than has traditionally been the case. Significantly, all the four authors maintain that Christians and Muslims share the faith in the one God, irrespective of their disagreements about the nature of his oneness. Basic ethical principles are not discussed as widely by the four authors as might be expected, which may reflect the shared cultural background and common ethical values of the Lebanese Muslims and Christians. On this level, Christians alienation from the Islamic law appears as the most significant challenge to mutual understanding, while neighbourly love and the golden rule of ethics offer a fruitful basis for further dialogue. As for the issue of political power-sharing in Lebanon, it is clear that the proposal of an Islamic state is problematic in a country with a sizable Christian minority and a heterogeneous Muslim population. Some form of democracy seems more viable for a multireligious country, but the question remains how to retain religion as a vital force in society, which is felt to be important by all the four Lebanese authors.

Managing uncertainty to improve the cost performance of complex infrastructure projects

There has been a recent spate of high profile infrastructure cost overruns in Australia and internationally. This is just the tip of a longer-term and more deeply-seated problem with initial budget estimating practice, well recognised in both academic research and industry reviews: the problem of uncertainty. A case study of the Sydney Opera House is used to identify and illustrate the key causal factors and system dynamics of cost overruns. It is conventionally the role of risk management to deal with such uncertainty, but the type and extent of the uncertainty involved in complex projects is shown to render established risk management techniques ineffective. This paper considers a radical advance on current budget estimating practice which involves a particular approach to statistical modelling complemented by explicit training in estimating practice. The statistical modelling approach combines the probability management techniques of Savage, which operate on actual distributions of values rather than flawed representations of distributions, and the data pooling technique of Skitmore, where the size of the reference set is optimised. Estimating training employs particular calibration development methods pioneered by Hubbard, which reduce the bias of experts caused by over-confidence and improve the consistency of subjective decision-making. A new framework for initial budget estimating practice is developed based on the combined statistical and training methods, with each technique being explained and discussed.

My robot Valentine: Could you fall in love with a robot?

Imagine it’s Valentine’s Day and you’re sitting in a restaurant across the table from your significant other, about to start a romantic dinner. As you gaze into each other’s eyes, you wonder how it can possibly be true that as well as not eating, your sweetheart does not – cannot – love you. Impossible, you think, as you squeeze its synthetic hand...

Young love: Romantic concerns and associated mental health issues among adolescent help-seekers

Over 50% of young people have dated by age 15. While romantic relationship concerns are a major reason for adolescent help-seeking from counselling services, we have a limited understanding of what types of relationship issues are most strongly related to mental health issues and suicide risk. This paper used records of 4019 counselling sessions with adolescents (10–18 years) seeking help from a national youth counselling service for a romantic relationship concern to: (i) explore what types and stage (pre, during, post) of romantic concerns adolescents seek help for; (ii) how they are associated with mental health problems, self-harm and suicide risk; and (iii) whether these associations differ by age and gender. In line with developmental-contextual theory, results suggest that concerns about the initiation of relationships are common in early adolescence, while concerns about maintaining and repairing relationships increase with age. Relationship breakups were the most common concern for both male and female adolescents and for all age groups (early, mid, late adolescence). Data relating to a range of mental health issues were available for approximately half of the sample. Post-relationship concerns (including breakups) were also more likely than pre- or during-relationship concerns to be associated with concurrent mental health issues (36.8%), self-harm (22.6%) and suicide (9.9%). Results draw on a staged developmental theory of adolescent romantic relationships to provide a comprehensive assessment of relationship stressors, highlighting post-relationship as a particularly vulnerable time for all stages of adolescence. These findings contribute to the development of targeted intervention and support programs.