Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Linear programming for large-scale Markov decision problems

We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest goal of competing with a low-dimensional family of policies. We use the dual linear programming formulation of the MDP average cost problem, in which the variable is a stationary distribution over state-action pairs, and we consider a neighborhood of a low-dimensional subset of the set of stationary distributions (defined in terms of state-action features) as the comparison class. We propose a technique based on stochastic convex optimization and give bounds that show that the performance of our algorithm approaches the best achievable by any policy in the comparison class. Most importantly, this result depends on the size of the comparison class, but not on the size of the state space. Preliminary experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in a queuing application.

A new load distribution strategy for linear network with communication delays

In this paper, we propose a new load distribution strategy called `send-and-receive' for scheduling divisible loads, in a linear network of processors with communication delay. This strategy is designed to optimally utilize the network resources and thereby minimizes the processing time of entire processing load. A closed-form expression for optimal size of load fractions and processing time are derived when the processing load originates at processor located in boundary and interior of the network. A condition on processor and link speed is also derived to ensure that the processors are continuously engaged in load distributions. This paper also presents a parallel implementation of `digital watermarking problem' on a personal computer-based Pentium Linear Network (PLN) topology. Experiments are carried out to study the performance of the proposed strategy and results are compared with other strategies found in literature.

Ergodic control of partially observed Markov chains

The ergodic or long-run average cost control problem for a partially observed finite-state Markov chain is studied via the associated fully observed separated control problem for the nonlinear filter. Dynamic programming equations for the latter are derived, leading to existence and characterization of optimal stationary policies.

An Efficient Load Distribution Strategy for a Distributed Linear Network of Processors with Communication Delays

In this paper, we present an improved load distribution strategy, for arbitrarily divisible processing loads, to minimize the processing time in a distributed linear network of communicating processors by an efficient utilization of their front-ends. Closed-form solutions are derived, with the processing load originating at the boundary and at the interior of the network, under some important conditions on the arrangement of processors and links in the network. Asymptotic analysis is carried out to explore the ultimate performance limits of such networks. Two important theorems are stated regarding the optimal load sequence and the optimal load origination point. Comparative study of this new strategy with an earlier strategy is also presented.

Two linear beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes

Two beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes are described. Both designs have the thermal stability of the Besocke beetle and the simplicity of the Wilms beetle. Moreover, sample holders were designed that also allow both semiconductor wafers and metal single crystals to be studied. The coarse approach is a linear motion of the beetle towards the sample using inertial slip–stick motion. Ten wires are required to control the position of the beetle and scanner and measure the tunneling current. The two beetles were built with different sized piezolegs, and the vibrational properties of both beetles were studied in detail. It was found, in agreement with previous work, that the beetle bending mode is the lowest principal eigenmode. However, in contrast to previous vibrational studies of beetle-type scanning tunneling microscopes, we found that the beetles did not have the “rattling” modes that are thought to arise from the beetle sliding or rocking between surface asperities on the raceway. The mass of our beetles is 3–4 times larger than the mass of beetles where rattling modes have been observed. We conjecture that the mass of our beetles is above a “critical beetle mass.” This is defined to be the beetle mass that attenuates the rattling modes by elastically deforming the contact region to the extent that the rattling modes cannot be identified as distinct modes in cross-coupling measurements.

Model Predictive Static Programming: A Computationally Efficient Technique For Suboptimal Control Design

Combining the philosophies of nonlinear model predictive control and approximate dynamic programming, a new suboptimal control design technique is presented in this paper, named as model predictive static programming (MPSP), which is applicable for finite-horizon nonlinear problems with terminal constraints. This technique is computationally efficient, and hence, can possibly be implemented online. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by designing an ascent phase guidance scheme for a ballistic missile propelled by solid motors. A comparison study with a conventional gradient method shows that the MPSP solution is quite close to the optimal solution.

Engineering cellulose nanofibre suspensions to control filtration resistance and sheet permeability

This study examines and quantifies the effect of adding polyelectrolytes to cellulose nanofibre suspensions on the gel point of cellulose nanofibre suspensions, which is the lowest solids concentration at which the suspension forms a continuous network. The lower the gel point, the faster the drainage time to produce a sheet and the higher the porosity of the final sheet formed. Two new techniques were designed to measure the dynamic compressibility and the drainability of nanocellulose–polyelectrolyte suspensions. We developed a master curve which showed that the independent variable controlling the behaviour of nanocellulose suspensions and its composite is the structure of the flocculated suspension which is best quantified as the gel point. This was independent of the type of polyelectrolyte used. At an addition level of 2 mg/g of nanofibre, a reduction in gel point over 50 % was achieved using either a high molecular weight (13 MDa) linear cationic polyacrylamide (CPAM, 40 % charge), a dendrimer polyethylenimine of high molecular weight of 750,000 Da (HPEI) or even a low molecular weight of 2000 Da (LPEI). There was no significant difference in the minimum gel point achieved, despite the difference in polyelectrolyte morphology and molecular weight. In this paper, we show that the gel point controls the flow through the fibre suspension, even when comparing fibre suspensions with solids content above the gel point. A lower gel point makes it easier for water to drain through the fibre network,reducing the pressure required to achieve a given dewatering rate and reducing the filtering time required to form a wet laid sheet. We further show that the lower gel point partially controls the structure of the wet laid sheet after it is dried. Halving the gel point increased the air permeability of the dry sheet by 37, 46 and 25 %, when using CPAM, HPEI and LPEI, respectively. The resistance to liquid flow was reduced by 74 and 90 %, when using CPAM and LPEI. Analysing the paper formed shows that sheet forming process and final sheet properties can be engineered and controlled by adding polyelectrolytes to the nanofibre suspension.

Ship Seakeeping Operability, Motion Control, and Autonomy - A Bayesian Perspective

Ship seakeeping operability refers to the quantification of motion performance in waves relative to mission requirements. This is used to make decisions about preferred vessel designs, but it can also be used as comprehensive assessment of the benefits of ship-motion-control systems. Traditionally, operability computation aggregates statistics of motion computed over over the envelope of likely environmental conditions in order to determine a coefficient in the range from 0 to 1 called operability. When used for assessment of motion-control systems, the increase of operability is taken as the key performance indicator. The operability coefficient is often given the interpretation of the percentage of time operable. This paper considers an alternative probabilistic approach to this traditional computation of operability. It characterises operability not as a number to which a frequency interpretation is attached, but as a hypothesis that a vessel will attain the desired performance in one mission considering the envelope of likely operational conditions. This enables the use of Bayesian theory to compute the probability of that this hypothesis is true conditional on data from simulations. Thus, the metric considered is the probability of operability. This formulation not only adheres to recent developments in reliability and risk analysis, but also allows incorporating into the analysis more accurate descriptions of ship-motion-control systems since the analysis is not limited to linear ship responses in the frequency domain. The paper also discusses an extension of the approach to the case of assessment of increased levels of autonomy for unmanned marine craft.

Hybrid structural control using magnetorheological dampers for base isolated structures

In this paper two nonlinear model based control algorithms have been developed to monitor the magnetorheological (MR) damper voltage. The main advantage of the proposed algorithms is that it is possible to directly monitor the voltage required to control the structural vibration considering the effect of the supplied and commanded voltage dynamics of the damper. The efficiency of the proposed techniques has been shown and compared taking an example of a base isolated three-storey building under a set of seismic excitations. Comparison of the performances with a fuzzy based intelligent control algorithm and a widely used clipped optimal strategy has also been shown.

Some aspects of multilevel load-frequency control of a power system

The application of multilevel control strategies for load-frequency control of interconnected power systems is assuming importance. A large multiarea power system may be viewed as an interconnection of several lower-order subsystems, with possible change of interconnection pattern during operation. The solution of the control problem involves the design of a set of local optimal controllers for the individual areas, in a completely decentralised environment, plus a global controller to provide the corrective signal to account for interconnection effects. A global controller, based on the least-square-error principle suggested by Siljak and Sundareshan, has been applied for the LFC problem. A more recent work utilises certain possible beneficial aspects of interconnection to permit more desirable system performances. The paper reports the application of the latter strategy to LFC of a two-area power system. The power-system model studied includes the effects of excitation system and governor controls. A comparison of the two strategies is also made.

Optimal hydrothermal load flow: Formulation and a successive approximation solution for fixed head systems

This paper deals with the optimal load flow problem in a fixed-head hydrothermal electric power system. Equality constraints on the volume of water available for active power generation at the hydro plants as well as inequality constraints on the reactive power generation at the voltage controlled buses are imposed. Conditions for optimal load flow are derived and a successive approximation algorithm for solving the optimal generation schedule is developed. Computer implementation of the algorithm is discussed, and the results obtained from the computer solution of test systems are presented.

Optimal designs for evaluating a series of treatments

Several articles in this journal have studied optimal designs for testing a series of treatments to identify promising ones for further study. These designs formulate testing as an ongoing process until a promising treatment is identified. This formulation is considered to be more realistic but substantially increases the computational complexity. In this article, we show that these new designs, which control the error rates for a series of treatments, can be reformulated as conventional designs that control the error rates for each individual treatment. This reformulation leads to a more meaningful interpretation of the error rates and hence easier specification of the error rates in practice. The reformulation also allows us to use conventional designs from published tables or standard computer programs to design trials for a series of treatments. We illustrate these using a study in soft tissue sarcoma.

Timing of fungicide applications for control of husk spot caused by Pseudocercospora macadamiae in macadamia

Pseudocercospora macadamiae is an important pathogen of macadamia in Australia, causing a disease known as husk spot. Growers strive to control the disease with a number of carbendazim and copper treatments. The aim of this study was to consider the macadamia fruit developmental stage at which fungicide application is most effective against husk spot, and whether application of copper-only applications at full-size fruit developmental stage toward the end of the season contributed to effective disease control. Fungicides were applied to macadamia trees at four developmental stages in three orchards in two subsequent production seasons. The effects of the treatments on disease incidence and severity were quantified using area under disease progress curve (AUDPC) and logistic regression models. Although disease incidence varied between cultivars, incidence and severity on cv. A16 showed consistent differences between the treatments. Most significant reduction in husk spot incidence occurred when spraying commenced at match-head sized-fruit developmental stage. All treatments significantly reduced husk spot incidence and severity compared with the untreated controls, and a significant positive linear relationship (R2 = 73%) between AUDPC and severity showed that timing of the first fungicide application is important for effective disease control. Application of fungicide at full-size fruit stage reduced disease incidence but had no impact on premature fruit drop.

Hierarchical Control of an Ammonia Reactor

An approach is presented for hierarchical control of an ammonia reactor, which is a key unit process in a nitrogen fertilizer complex. The aim of the control system is to ensure safe operation of the reactor around the optimal operating point in the face of process variable disturbances and parameter variations. The four different layers perform the functions of regulation, optimization, adaptation, and self-organization. The simulation for this proposed application is conducted on an AD511 hybrid computer in which the AD5 analog processor is used to represent the process and the PDP-11/ 35 digital computer is used for the implementation of control laws. Simulation results relating to the different layers have been presented.