Comparative Analysis between Statistical and Artificial Intelligence Models in Business Failure Prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

Surface plasmon resonance as a tool in the functional analisys of an immunodominant site in foot-and-mouth disease virus

A fast and direct surface plasmon resonance (SPR) method for the kinetic analysis of the interactions between peptide antigens and immobilised monoclonal antibodies (mAb) has been established. Protocols have been developed to overcome the problems posed by the small size of the analytes (< 1600 Da). The interactions were well described by a simple 1:1 bimolecular interaction and the rate constants were self-consistent and reproducible. The key features for the accuracy of the kinetic constants measured were high buffer flow rates, medium antibody surface densities and high peptide concentrations. The method was applied to an extensive analysis of over 40 peptide analogues towards two distinct anti-FMDV antibodies, providing data in total agreement with previous competition ELISA experiments. Eleven linear 15-residue synthetic peptides, reproducing all possible combinations of the four replacements found in foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) field isolate C-S30, were evaluated. The direct kinetic SPR analysis of the interactions between these peptides and three anti-site A mAbs suggested additivity in all combinations of the four relevant mutations, which was confirmed by parallel ELISA analysis. The four-point mutant peptide (A15S30) reproducing site A from the C-S30 strain was the least antigenic of the set, in disagreement with previously reported studies with the virus isolate. Increasing peptide size from 15 to 21 residues did not significantly improve antigenicity. Overnight incubation of A15S30 with mAb 4C4 in solution showed a marked increase in peptide antigenicity not observed for other peptide analogues, suggesting that conformational rearrangement could lead to a stable peptide-antibody complex. In fact, peptide cyclization clearly improved antigenicity, confirming an antigenic reversion in a multiply substituted peptide. Solution NMR studies of both linear and cyclic versions of the antigenic loop of FMDV C-S30 showed that structural features previously correlated with antigenicity were more pronounced in the cyclic peptide. Twenty-six synthetic peptides, corresponding to all possible combinations of five single-point antigenicity-enhancing replacements in the GH loop of FMDV C-S8c1, were also studied. SPR kinetic screening of these peptides was not possible due to problems mainly related to the high mAb affinities displayed by these synthetic antigens. Solution affinity SPR analysis was employed and affinities displayed were generally comparable to or even higher than those corresponding to the C-S8c1 reference peptide A15. The NMR characterisation of one of these multiple mutants in solution showed that it had a conformational behaviour quite similar to that of the native sequence A15 and the X-ray diffraction crystallographic analysis of the peptide ? mAb 4C4 complex showed paratope ? epitope interactions identical to all FMDV peptide ? mAb complexes studied so far. Key residues for these interactions are those directly involved in epitope ? paratope contacts (141Arg, 143Asp, 146His) as well as residues able to stabilise a particular peptide global folding. A quasi-cyclic conformation is held up by a hydrophobic cavity defined by residues 138, 144 and 147 and by other key intrapeptide hydrogen bonds, delineating an open turn at positions 141, 142 and 143 (corresponding to the Arg-Gly-Asp motif).

How logrolling can explain the failure of the government coalition in Brazil

This article presents an analysis of the behavior of federal representatives in the Brazilian House of Representatives between 1995 and 1998, when a series of constitutional amendments were presented by the president to be voted on by Congress. The objective is to show that the lack of a stable government coalition resulted in costs to society that were not anticipated by the government. The study argues that a logroll - a trade of votes - was the strategy used by the government in order to guarantee the number of votes necessary to approve the amendments. This strategy created a vicious system in which representatives would only vote with the government if they had benefits in return.

Scaling of the elastic contribution to the surface free energy of a nematic liquid crystal on a sawtoothed substrate

We characterize the elastic contribution to the surface free energy of a nematic liquid crystal in the presence of a sawtooth substrate. Our findings are based on numerical minimization of the Landau-de Gennes model and analytical calculations on the Frank-Oseen theory. The nucleation of disclination lines (characterized by non-half-integer winding numbers) in the wedges and apexes of the substrate induces a leading order proportional to q ln q to the elastic contribution to the surface free-energy density, with q being the wave number associated with the substrate periodicity.

Health related quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization: type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the health-related quality of life (HRQL) are largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions that constitute HRQL are still a matter of discussion. Objective: To evaluate the impact of CRT on the HRQL of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT. Methods: 43 patients, submitted to successful implantation of CRT, were evaluated in hospital just before intervention and in the outpatient clinic within 6 months after CRT. HRQL was analyzed based on the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Patients were classified as super-responders (ejection fraction of left ventricle - LVEF - ≥45% post-CRT), n=15, responders (sustained improvement in functional class and LVEF increased by 15%), n=19, and non-responders (no clinical or LVEF improvement), n=9. Results: In the group of super-responders, CRT was associated with an improvement in HRQL for the various fields and sums assessed (ρ<0.05); in responders, CRT has been associated with an improvement of HRQL in the various fields and sums, except in the self-efficacy dimension (ρ<0.05); in non-responders, CRT was not associated with improvement of HRQL. Conclusion: In a population with severe CHF undergoing CRT, the patients with clinical and echocardiographic positive response, obtained a favorable impact in all dimensions of HRQL, while the group without response to CRT showed no improvement. These data reinforces the importance of HRQL as a multidimensional tool for assessment of benefits in clinical practice.

Die Surface Designer System

This paper defines Die Surface Designer (DSD) System for fast draw die in the product development feasibility phase on surfaces coming from styling. We propose a CAD integration, for better support the design process in industry, particularly on the development of new products in automotive sector. The DSD system intends to reduce the lead time by providing and integrating flexible and efficient capabilities for testing early concepts from surface analysis points of view in automotive product development.

Evaluating the quality of life in patients with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing cardiac resynchronization regarding the type of therapeutic response

The benefits of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) in the quality of life have been largely demonstrated in selected patients with severe congestive heart failure (CHF). However, the differences between responders and non-responders, with regard to the effect of CRT in the various dimensions of quality of life is still a matter of discussion. Objective: to evaluate the impact of CRT on the quality of life of patients with CHF refractory to optimal pharmacological therapy, within 6 months after CRT.

Relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in patients with heart failure

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the relation of positive variables with health. Objective: To know the relation of happiness, hope and affection with quality of life in individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years in school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Happiness, hope and affection as predictors of quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure at 3 month follow up

Introduction: Meeting the actual role of positive psychology, begins to be recognized the contribution of positive variables in health outcomes. Objective: To know the contribution of happiness, hope and affection individually and as a whole in the quality of life and functionality of individuals with heart failure. Population and Methodology: 128 individuals with heart failure, 98 men and 30 women, 61.9±12,1 years of age, 6,6±3,9 years of school and 74,2% retired because of this disease. 56,3% were in Class III of New York Heart Association, with poor left ventricular ejection fraction (25,3±6,2%). The clinical history was of 9,4±8,5 years for this heart disease and had at least one hospitalization due to heart failure with 51,6% having ischemic heart disease.

Quality of life in dilated cardiomyopathy with refractory chronic heart failure undergoing devices implantation

Heart failure is the final stage of most of cardiac diseases. It is a complex syndrome in which the patients should have the following features: symptoms of heart failure, typically shortness of breath at rest or during exertion, and/or fatigue; signs of fluid retention such as pulmonary congestion or ankle swelling; and objective evidence of an abnormality of the structure or function of the heart at rest. This progressive syndrome as a high incidence and prevalence and poor prognosis: four-year mortality is around 50% with 40% of the patients admitted to hospital dying or readmitted within a year. With ageing, many patients will develop chronic heart failure, which, because of its symptoms, patient’s awareness of their risk of dying, and the effects of therapy, together with frequent hospitalizations, has considerable impact on patient’s health-related quality of life.

A model to forecast financial failure, in non financial galician SMES

We are concerned with providing more empirical evidence on forecast failure, developing forecast models, and examining the impact of events such as audit reports. A joint consideration of classic financial ratios and relevant external indicators leads us to build a basic prediction model focused in non-financial Galician SMEs. Explanatory variables are relevant financial indicators from the viewpoint of the financial logic and financial failure theory. The paper explores three mathematical models: discriminant analysis, Logit, and linear multivariate regression. We conclude that, even though they both offer high explanatory and predictive abilities, Logit and MDA models should be used and interpreted jointly.

Promoção da saúde ocular e prevenção precoce de problemas visuais nos serviços de saúde pública

OBJETIVO: Verificar o conhecimento, atitudes e práticas em relação às ações básicas de saúde ocular de pediatras e enfermeiros de serviços de saúde pública. MÉTODO: A população estudada constituiu-se de pediatras e enfermeiros que trabalhavam nos centros de saúde do Município de Campinas, SP - Brasil, e atuavam com crianças de 0 a 12 anos de idade. As informações sobre conhecimento, atitudes e práticas foram colhidas através de questionários (para os pediatras) e de formulários (para os enfermeiros). RESULTADOS: A execução das ações básicas de saúde ocular em crianças não fazia parte da rotina de atividades dos pediatras e enfermeiros, provavelmente devido ao pouco conhecimento dessas ações. Dos 61 pediatras, 82,0% (50) e 91,0% dos 22 enfermeiros não souberam referir a idade em que se completa o desenvolvimento visual. Em relação à ambliopia, 86,8% (53) dos pediatras e 100,0% dos enfermeiros não souberam defini-la. CONCLUSÕES: A promoção da saúde ocular e a prevenção precoce de problemas visuais em crianças não representava uma prática constante desses profissionais vinculados aos serviços de saúde pública. Recomenda-se que se realize treinamentos e educação continuada na área de saúde ocular durante e após a formação universitária desses profissionais.

Crenças sobre saúde ocular entre professores do sistema público de ensino do Município de São Paulo, SP - Brasil

OBJETIVO: Verificar crenças em saúde ocular relacionadas ao uso de óculos, esforço visual e danos à visão por leitura em diferentes situações, para subsidiar programas de treinamento de professores. MÉTODOS: Levantamento de dados entre professores de primeira série do ensino fundamental, das escolas públicas da região sul do Município de São Paulo, SP -- Brasil. Foi obtida uma população de 545 sujeitos, distribuídos em 120 escolas. Elaborou-se questionário auto-aplicável, estruturado com base em estudo exploratório. RESULTADOS: A população apresentou média de idade de 37,8 anos e média de tempo de magistério de 13,2 anos. A maioria (67,4%) não recebeu orientação em saúde ocular nos últimos três anos. Quase a totalidade (99,4%) acreditava na necessidade do uso constante de óculos; 62,3% consideraram ser o uso intensivo da visão fator agravante de distúrbios oftalmológicos; conseqüências danosas à visão por ver televisão a menos de 2 metros foram admitidas por 95% dos docentes e 59,9% deles acreditavam ser prejudicial à visão assistir à televisão com luzes apagadas; 45,6% acreditavam que a leitura em veículos em movimento pode causar problemas de visão. CONCLUSÕES: Foram evidenciadas crenças populares relacionadas à saúde ocular, mostrando a necessidade de prover orientação a professores para o desenvolvimento de ações de oftalmologia sanitária nas escolas de primeiro grau.

Comparison of deposited surface area of airborne ultrafine particles generated from two welding processes

This article describes work performed on the assessment of the levels of airborne ultrafine particles emitted in two welding processes metal-active gas (MAG) of carbon steel and friction-stir welding (FSW) of aluminium in terms of deposited area in alveolar tract of the lung using a nanoparticle surface area monitor analyser. The obtained results showed the dependence from process parameters on emitted ultrafine particles and clearly demonstrated the presence of ultrafine particles, when compared with background levels. The obtained results showed that the process that results on the lower levels of alveolar-deposited surface area is FSW, unlike MAG. Nevertheless, all the tested processes resulted in important doses of ultrafine particles that are to be deposited in the human lung of exposed workers.

Nanofiltration of surface water for the removal of endocrine disruptors

The assessment of surface water nanofiltration (NF) for the removal of endocrine disruptors (EDs) Nonylphenol Ethoxylate (IGEPAL), 4-Nonylphenol (NP) and 4-Octylphenol (OP) was carried out with three commercial NF membranes - NF90, NF200, NF270. The permeation experiments were conducted in laboratory flat-cell units of 13.2 x 10(-4) m(2) of surface area and in a DSS Lab-unit M20 with a membrane surface area of 0.036 m2. The membranes hydraulic permeabilities ranged from 3.7 to 15.6 kg/h/m(2)/bar and the rejection coefficients to NaCl, Na2SO4 and Glucose are for NF90: 97%, 99% and 97%, respectively; for NF200: 66%, 98% and 90%, respectively and for NF270: 48%, 94% and 84%, respectively. Three sets of nanofiltration experiments were carried out: i) NF of aqueous model solutions of NP, IGEPAL and OP running in total recirculation mode; ii) NF of surface water from Rio Sado (Settibal, Portugal) running in concentration mode; iii) NF of surface water from Rio Sado inoculated with NP, IGEPAL and OP running in concentration mode. The results of model solutions experiments showed that the EDs rejection coefficients are approximately 100% for all the membranes. The results obtained for the surface water showed that the rejection coefficients to natural organic Matter (NOM) are 94%, 82% and 78% for NF90, NF200 and NF 270 membranes respectively, with and without inoculation of EDs. The rejection coefficients to EDs in surface water with and without inoculation of EDs are 100%, showing that there is a fraction of NOM of high molecular weight that retains the EDs in the concentrate and that there is a fraction of NOM of low molecular weight that permeates through the NF membranes free of EDs.