A Bayesian Long-term Survival Model Parametrized in the Cured Fraction

The main goal of this paper is to investigate a cure rate model that comprehends some well-known proposals found in the literature. In our work the number of competing causes of the event of interest follows the negative binomial distribution. The model is conveniently reparametrized through the cured fraction, which is then linked to covariates by means of the logistic link. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis in the proposed model. The procedure is illustrated with a numerical example.

Characterization of the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols in Amazonia from long-term AERONET monitoring (1993-1995 and 1999-2006)

We present a new climatology of atmospheric aerosols (primarily pyrogenic and biogenic) for the Brazilian tropics on the basis of a high-quality data set of spectral aerosol optical depth and directional sky radiance measurements from Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Cimel Sun-sky radiometers at more than 15 sites distributed across the Amazon basin and adjacent Cerrado region. This network is the only long-term project (with a record including observations from more than 11 years at some locations) ever to have provided ground-based remotely-sensed column aerosol properties for this critical region. Distinctive features of the Amazonian area aerosol are presented by partitioning the region into three aerosol regimes: southern Amazonian forest, Cerrado, and northern Amazonian forest. The monitoring sites generally include measurements from the interval 1999-2006, but some sites have measurement records that date back to the initial days of the AERONET program in 1993. Seasonal time series of aerosol optical depth (AOD), angstrom ngstrom exponent, and columnar-averaged microphysical properties of the aerosol derived from sky radiance inversion techniques (single-scattering albedo, volume size distribution, fine mode fraction of AOD, etc.) are described and contrasted for the defined regions. During the wet season, occurrences of mineral dust penetrating deep into the interior were observed.

Long-term oscillations in the sleep/wake cycle of infants

The development of circadian sleep-wakefulness rhythm was investigated by a longitudinal study of six normal infants. We propose an entropy based measure for the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation. Our results confirm that the sleep/wake cycle fragmentation and the sleep/wake ratio decrease, while the circadian power increases during the maturation process of infants. In addition to these expected linear trends in the variables devised to quantify sleep consolidation, circadian power and sleep/wake ratio, we found that they present infradian rhythms in the monthly range. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of the economic activity from the short and long-term interest rate differential: new evidences in Chile and the United States of America cases

The purpose of this work is to verify the stability of the relationship between real activity and interest rate spread. The test is based on Chen (1988) and Osorio and Galea (2006). The analysis is applied to Chile and the United States, from 1980 to 1999. In general, in both cases the relationship was statistically significant in early 80s, but a break point is found in both countries during that decades, suggesting that the relationship depends on the monetary rule follow by the Central Bank.

Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

Long-term high-fat diet-induced obesity decreases the cardiac leptin receptor without apparent lipotoxicity

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The importance of knowing the home conditions of patients receiving long-term oxygen therapy

Purpose: Long-term oxygen therapy (LTOT) is one of the main treatments for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Patients receiving LTOT may have less than optimal home conditions and this may interfere with treatment. The objective of this study was, through home visits, to identify the characteristics of patients receiving LTOT and to develop knowledge regarding the home environments of these patients.Methods: Ninety-seven patients with a mean age of 69 plus or minus 10.5 years were evaluated. This study was a cross-sectional descriptive analysis. Data were collected during an initial home visit, using a questionnaire standardized for the study. The results were analyzed retrospectively.Results: Seventy-five percent of the patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and 11% were active smokers. The patients' mean pulse oximetry values were 85.9% plus or minus 4.7% on room air and 92% plus or minus 3.9% on the prescribed flow of oxygen. Most of the patients did not use the treatment as prescribed and most used a humidifier. The extension hose had a mean length of 5 plus or minus 3.9 m (range, 1.5-16 m). In the year prior to the visit, 26% of the patients received emergency medical care because of respiratory problems. Few patients reported engaging in leisure activities.Conclusion: The home visit allowed us to identify problems and interventions that could improve the way LTOT is used. The most common interventions related to smoking cessation, concentrator maintenance and cleaning, use of a humidifier, and adjustments of the length of the connector hose. Therefore, the home visit is a very important tool in providing comprehensive care to patients receiving LTOT, especially those who show lack of adequate progress and those who show uncertainty about the treatment method.

Long-term effects of insulin therapy, islet transplantation, and pancreas transplantation in the prevention of glomerular changes in kidneys of alloxan-induced diabetic rats

Groups of inbred alloxan-induced diabetic rats were treated with insulin (I), islets (IT), or pancreas transplantation (PT). Nondiabetic (N) and untreated diabetic (D) control groups were concurrently included. Each group was divided into five subgroups of 10 rats and killed after follow-up of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Clinical and laboratory parameters were recorded, and kidney ultrastructural and morphometric analyses performed in each 12-month subgroup, namely glomerular basement membrane (GM) thickening, podocyte number, and number/extension of slit diaphragms (S). Rats from the I group showed poor metabolic control of diabetes compared with N group control rats. However, successfully transplanted rats (IT and PT) had complete restoration to normal levels for all metabolic parameters. GM thickening was significantly higher in diabetic compared with control rats. In contrast, the numbers of podocytes and slits as well as slit extensions were significantly decreased. Insulin therapy did not prevent any alterations upon comparison of diabetic vs control rats. Despite good metabolic control in IT rats, the degree of kidney lesion control never compared with that achieved in PT rats. In this group all glomerular changes were similar to the age-dependent lesions observed in control rats. We conclude that either IT or PT may be a good option for diabetes treatment, although pancreas transplantation seems to be the most effective treatment to control chronic complications.

Long-term treatment with alendronate increases the surgical difficulty during simple exodontias - an in vivo observation in Holtzman rats

Background: Atraumatic teeth extractions protocols are highly encouraged in patients taking bisphosphonates (Bps) to reduce surgical trauma and, consequently, the risk of jaws osteonecrosis development. In this way, this paper aims to report the findings of increased surgical difficulty during simple exodontias in animals treated with bisphosphonates.Methods: Sixty male Holtzman rats were randomly distributed into three groups of 20 animals and received daily subcutaneous administration of 1 mg/kg (AL1) or 3 mg/kg (AL3) of alendronate or saline solution (CTL). After 60 days of drug therapy all animals were submitted to first lower molars extractions under general anesthesia. Operatory surgical time and the frequency of teeth fractures were measured as principal outcomes and indicators of surgical difficulty degree.Results: Animals treated with alendronate (AL1 and AL3) were associated to higher operatory times and increased frequency of teeth fractures compared to match controls.Conclusions: The bisphosphonate therapy may be associated with an increased surgical difficulty and trauma following simple exodontias protocols, which is considered a critical issue when it comes to osteonecrosis development.

The effect of long-term disinfection procedures on hardness property of resin denture teeth

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Effect of long-term water immersion on the fracture toughness of denture base and reline resins

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)