Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2

We describe here the development and evaluation of an Earth system model suitable for centennial-scale climate prediction. The principal new components added to the physical climate model are the terrestrial and ocean ecosystems and gas-phase tropospheric chemistry, along with their coupled interactions. The individual Earth system components are described briefly and the relevant interactions between the components are explained. Because the multiple interactions could lead to unstable feedbacks, we go through a careful process of model spin up to ensure that all components are stable and the interactions balanced. This spun-up configuration is evaluated against observed data for the Earth system components and is generally found to perform very satisfactorily. The reason for the evaluation phase is that the model is to be used for the core climate simulations carried out by the Met Office Hadley Centre for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), so it is essential that addition of the extra complexity does not detract substantially from its climate performance. Localised changes in some specific meteorological variables can be identified, but the impacts on the overall simulation of present day climate are slight. This model is proving valuable both for climate predictions, and for investigating the strengths of biogeochemical feedbacks.

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012: policies for an adverse international economy

Includes bibliography

A sub-national public-private strategic alliance for innovation and export development: the case of the Canadian province of Alberta's oil sands

Includes bibliography

Desarrollo social y planificación social: estudio de problemas conceptuales = Social development and social planning: a survey of conceptual and practical problems in Latin America

Incluye Bibliografía

Report of the Workshop on Development and Application of Sampling Frames and Sample Designs for Integrated Household Survey Programmes in the Caribbean

Includes bibliography

Assessment of the damage caused by flood rains and landslides in association with hurricane Michelle, october 2001: implications for economic, social and environmental development

Preface This study was prepared for the Government of Jamaica following the significant physical damage and economic losses that the country sustained as a result of flood rains associated with the development of Hurricane Michelle. The Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) submitted a request for assistance in undertaking a social, environmental and economic impact assessment to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) on 14 November 2001. ECLAC responded with haste and modified its work plan to accommodate the request. A request for training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology to be delivered to personnel in Jamaica was deferred until the first quarter of 2002, as it was impossible to mount such an initiative at such short notice. This appraisal considers the consequences of the three instances of heavy rainfall that brought on the severe flooding and loss of property and livelihoods. The study was prepared by three members of the ECLAC Natural Disaster Damage Assessment Team over a period of one week in order to comply with the request that it be presented to the Prime Minister on 3 December 2001. The team has endeavoured to complete a workload that would take two weeks with a team of 15 members working assiduously with data already prepared in preliminary form by the national emergency stakeholders. There is need for training in disaster assessment as evidenced by the data collected by the Jamaican officials engaged in the exercise. Their efforts in the future will be more focused and productive after they have received training in the use of the ECLAC Methodology. This study undertakes a sectoral analysis leading to an overall assessment of the damage. It appraises the macroeconomic and social effects and proposes some guidelines for action including mitigating actions subsequent to the devastation caused by the weather system. The team is grateful for the efforts of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM), the associated government ministries and agencies, the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), the Planning Institute of Jamaica and the Inter American Development Bank (IDB) for assistance rendered to the team. Indeed, it is the recommendation of the team that STATIN is poised to play a pivotal role in any disaster damage assessment and should be taken on board in that regard. The direct and indirect damages have been assessed in accordance with the methodology developed by ECLAC (1). The results presented are based on the mission's estimates. The study incorporates the information made available to the team and evidence collected in interviews and visits to affected locations. It is estimated that the magnitude of the losses exceeds the country's capacity to address reparations and mitigation without serious dislocation of its development trajectory. The government may wish to approach the international community for assistance in this regard. This appraisal is therefore designed to provide the government and the international community with guidelines for setting national and regional priorities in rehabilitation and reconstruction or resettlement programmes. A purely economic conception of the problem would be limited. A more integrated approach would have a human face and consider the alleviation of human suffering in the affected areas while attending to the economic and fiscal fallout of the disaster. Questions of improved physical planning, watershed management, early warning, emergency response and structural preparedness for evacuation and sheltering the vulnerable population are seen as important considerations for the post disaster phase. Special attention and priority should be placed on including sustainability and increased governance criteria in making social and productive investments, and on allocating resources to the reinforcing and retrofitting of vulnerable infrastructure, basic lifelines and services as part of the reconstruction and rehabilitation strategy. The Jamaican society and government face the opportunity of undertaking action with the benefit of revised paradigms, embarking on institutional, legal and structural reforms to reduce economic, social and environmental vulnerability. The history of flood devastation in the very areas of Portland and St. Mary shows a recurrence of flooding. Accounts of flooding from the earliest recorded accounts pertaining to 1837 are available. Recurrences in 1937, 1940, 1943 and 2001 indicate an ever-present probability of recurrence of similar events. The Government may wish to consider the probable consequences of a part of its population living in flood plains and address its position vis-à­¶is land use and the probability of yet another recurrence of flood rains. (1) ECLAC/IDNDR, Manual for estimating the Socio-Economic Effects of Natural Disasters, May,1999.

Programa de la CEPAL sobre los recursos del mar y el desarrollo de América Latina y el Caribe = ECLA programme on ocean resources and development of Latin America and the Caribbean

Presenta los antecedentes, una descripcion general y las principales areas de accion del programa.

The status of millennium development goals: monitoring and reporting in selected Caribbean countries

In spite of various initiatives, Caribbean countries continue to have difficulties in addressing demands of monitoring and measuring progress towards the fulfilment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and other Internationally Agreed upon Development Goals (IADGs)1. To address this gap, the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has received funding for a technical assistance project, Strengthening the capacity of National Statistical Offices (NSOs) in the Caribbean Small Island Developing States to fulfil the Millennium Development Goals and other Internationally Agreed Development Goals (IADGs). The main imperative of the project is to support the strengthening of national institutional capabilities for generating reliable data to meet these monitoring and reporting requirements. The project seeks to build on past and current initiatives directed towards broadening and improving statistics and indicators through the use of already available knowledge, experience and expertise at the national and regional level. In an effort to avoid duplication of present or repetition of past activities in this field, ECLAC considered it important to conduct a thorough assessment of the status and structure of MDG and IADG monitoring and reporting at the national and regional levels as well as to provide an overview of initiatives undertaken by other regional development partners and intergovernmental bodies in the subregion. This paper is composed as follows: The first chapter of the document will present an overview of the statistical infrastructure at the national level, followed by a summary of the results of a survey administered to Caribbean NSOs that gathered information on the status of and mechanisms in place in MDG and IADG monitoring and reporting at the national level. Then, an attempt will be made to provide a briefing on activities carried out by intergovernmental bodies and development partners in the region. The fourth section presents a brief summary of data sources for secondary data and introduces concepts for metadata collection and reporting. It further discusses major challenges with poverty measurements and monitoring in the subregion. The paper ends with a summary and recommendations for the way forward.