Market Value

MARKET VALUE is a collection of stories about people in Southwest Florida struggling to make sense of their lives when faced with shifting economic realities. The characters in the collection reevaluate their relationships and uncover secrets, forced to navigate a new American landscape of stalled opportunities and uncertain futures. In “Call the Storage King,” Walt assumes that his girlfriend has total faith in their relationship, but accidentally discovers evidence to the contrary. In “Luxury Living,” a resident of a mostly-empty riverfront condo gives a guided tour to a prospective buyer, revealing the building’s short but sordid history along the way. Influenced by the suburban satire of Tom Perotta and A.M. Homes, MARKET VALUE presents a changing landscape where characters form unexpected alliances and sever old ties, in order to come closer to their downsized American Dreams.

Planejando com lean construction: diretrizes para implementação da construção enxuta em obras

Nowadays lives up in an era of tight credit caused by the global financial crisis, as occurred in the past, it is the responsibility of various sectors and segments of society find ways to reinvent itself. In this context, Lean Construction presents itself as a strong alternative production management for companies in the construction segment. Arising out of lean thinking that originated in Japan in the postwar period and has spread around the world in times of extreme scarcity with the oil crisis. In practice the Lean Construction is a philosophy that seeks to improve the process of production management, maximizing the value of the flow from the customer's perspective through the elimination of losses. And thrives in environments and cultures that consider the scarcity of resources like something natural, applying both the macroeconomic crisis as in times of prosperity. The Planning and Production Control - PCP presents itself as a fundamental building block for companies to protect themselves in the face of economic fluctuations, seeking for their survival and success in the competitive market. Motivated by the lack of discussion of the topic in the local academy, and for the identification of 93.33% of construction companies that do not make use of methodological tools for PCP in the state, this dissertation aims to study and propose the implementation of lean construction in methodology of planning projects implemented on construction sites. This characterized the management system, of the production of a construction company, pointing out the main causes of ineffectiveness related to consequent low performance of one of his ventures. In sequence, the PCP was implemented with the use of tools to serve the principles of lean construction. This being monitored through indicators that provided managers managerial view of process of actions control and production of protective mechanisms. All implementation guidelines and application of this management model, were exposed in a simplified way, practical and efficient, in order to break the resistance of new practices and old paradigms in the industry.

Finance past, finance future: a brief exploration of the evolution of financial practices

As we work our way through the latest financial crisis, politicians seem both powerless to act convincingly and unable to craft from the welter of diverse and antagonistic narratives a coherent and convincing vision of the future. In this article, we argue that a temporal lens brings clarity to such confusion, and that thinking in terms of time and reflecting on privileged temporal structures helps to highlight underlying assumptions and distinguish different narratives from one another. We begin by articulating our understanding of temporality, and we proceed to apply this to the evolution of financial practice during different historical epochs as recently delineated by Gordon (2012). We argue that the principles of finance were effectively in place by the eighteenth century and that consequent developments are best conceptualized as phases in which one particular aspect is intensified. We find that in different historical periods, the temporal intensification associated with specific models of finance shifts, over history, from the past to the present to the future. We argue that a quite idiosyncratic understanding of the future has been intensified in the present phase, what we refer to as proximal future, and we explain how this has come to be. We then consider the ethical consequences of privileging an intensification of proximal future before mapping an alternative model centred on intensifying distal future, highlighting early signs of its potential emergence in the shadows of our present.

Measuring Tail Risks at High Frequency

I develop a new methodology for measuring tail risks using the cross section of bid-ask spreads. Market makers embed tail risk information into spreads because (1) they lose to arbitrageurs when changes to asset values exceed the cost of liquidity and (2) underlying price movements and potential costs are linear in factor loadings. Using this insight, simple cross-sectional regressions relating spreads and trading volume to factor betas can recover tail risks in real time for priced or non-priced return factors. The methodology disentangles financial and aggregate market risks during the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis; anticipates jump risks associated with Federal Open Market Committee announcements; and quantifies a sharp, temporary increase in market tail risk before and throughout the 2010 Flash Crash. The recovered time series of implied market risks also aligns closely with both realized market jumps and the VIX.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Temporary contracts and non-protected employment in Argentina, Chile and Perú: incidence and determinants

The diverse kinds of legal temporary contracts and the employment forms that do not comply with legal requirements both facilitate employment adjustment to firms´ requirements and entail labour cost reductions. Their employment incidence depends not only on the economic and labour market evolutions but also on other factors, in particular the historical trajectories followed by labour legislation, state enforcement, and the degree of compliance. To contribute to the understanding of the determinants of the degree of utilization of different employment practices, the study reported in this article explores the use made of the various legal temporary contracts and of precarious employment relationships by private enterprises in three Latin American countries (Argentina, Chile and Peru) during 2003-2012, a period of economic growth, and the explanatory role of diverse factors.

Green Economy and Employment: employment potential of the ecological transition in Spain

The Green Economy offers real possibilities for productive innovation, economic growth and employment creation in Spain. These three factors are critical to facilitate the necessary change in the productive model to overcome the crisis. However, the measures taken by the current Conservative government have moved in the opposite direction: significant cutting in incentives for renewable, increasing tax burden on renewable energy production to self-consumption and privatizing public spaces of social and environmental interest. This hinders the achievement of the environmental objectives of the Europe 2020 strategy. A strategy that is born already in itself highly limited, unambitious and subordinated to the interests of energy oligopolies and the imperatives of the Stability and Growth Pact (Maastricht) and the Austerity policies imposed from EU institutions to overcome the 2008 financial crisis. So the Ecological Transition goes further, claiming a substantially change in Economic Policy away form the increasing commodification proposed by the Green Economy. Despite these limitations, young and unemployed people have much to gain from a comprehensive development of environmental industries. Therefore, innovative-sustainable plans, investment and training in green sectors are necessary to make easier the transition from a services low-valued economy to an innovative and sustainable model to make our country an environmental reference in Europe.

Rethinking Care Through Social Reproduction: Articulating Circuits of Migration

Care has come to dominate much feminist research on globalized migrations and the transfer of labor from the South to the North, while the older concept of reproduction had been pushed into the background but is now becoming the subject of debates on the commodification of care in the household and changes in welfare state policies. This article argues that we could achieve a better understanding of the different modalities and trajectories of care in the reproduction of individuals, families, and communities, both of migrant and nonmigrant populations by articulating the diverse circuits of migration, in particular that of labor and the family. In doing this, I go back to the earlier North American writing on racialized minorities and migrants and stratified social reproduction. I also explore insights from current Asian studies of gendered circuits of migration connecting labor and marriage migrations as well as the notion of global householding that highlights the gender politics of social reproduction operating within and beyond households in institutional and welfare architectures. In contrast to Asia, there has relatively been little exploration in European studies of the articulation of labor and family migrations through the lens of social reproduction. However, connecting the different types of migration enables us to achieve a more complex understanding of care trajectories and their contribution to social reproduction.

What Moved Share Prices in the Nineteenth-Century London Stock Market?

Using a new weekly blue-chip index, this paper investigates the causes of stock price movements on the London market between 1823 and 1870. We find that economic fundamentals explain about 15 per cent of weekly and 34 per cent of monthly variation in share prices. Contemporary press reporting from the London Stock Exchange is used to ascertain what market participants thought were causing the largest movements on the market. The vast majority of large movements were attributed by the press to geopolitical, monetary, railway-sector, and financial-crisis news. Investigating the stock price changes on an independent list of events reaffirms these findings, suggesting that the most important specific events which moved markets were wars involving European powers.

Does the European Union have a reverse gear? Policy dismantling in a hyperconsensual polity

The financial crisis has triggered demands to halt and even reverse the expansion of European Union (EU) policies. But have these and previous demands actually resulted in policy dismantling? The existing literature has charted the rise of dismantling discourses such as subsidiarity and better regulation, but has not examined the net effect on the acquis. For the first time, this contribution addresses this gap in the literature through an empirical study of policy change between 1992 and 2014. It is guided by a coding framework which captures the direction of policy change. It reveals that, despite its disposition towards consensualism, the EU has become a new locus of policy dismantling. However, not all policies targeted have been cut; many have stayed the same and some have even expanded. It concludes by identifying new directions for research on a topic that has continually fallen into the analytical blind spot of EU scholars.

Public Protection? The Implication of Grayling's 'Transforming Rehabilitation' Agenda on the Safety of Women and Children

Abstract The Coalition Government's new Transforming Rehabilitation (TR) agenda jeopardises the work undertaken with perpetrators of domestic abuse by highly skilled, qualified probation staff. Under new changes outlined by Grayling, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, probation clients who are assessed as posing a medium/low risk of causing harm will be assigned to private sector/voluntary organisations rather than come under the remit of the National Probation Service. This article argues that victims of domestic abuse, primarily women and children, will be placed at an increased risk of harm given this latest TR strategy. The majority of domestic abuse cases will be assessed as posing a medium risk of causing harm and will receive lower levels of intervention by a variety of disparate agencies and organisations. The Ministry of Justice states that the National Probation Service will directly manage offenders who pose a high risk of serious harm to the public, this article will argue that all perpetrators of domestic abuse should be considered as an important exception to this stance, and should remain under the auspices of Probation supervision, irrespective of statistical risk assessment, as has sex offender case management and sex offender treatment programme delivery.

A internacionalização de PME: o caso da Carvalheira, Bastos Lda.

Atualmente, a internacionalização é uma estratégia adotada por muitas empresas, independentemente da sua dimensão com o intuito de enfrentar o abrandamento económico no seu mercado doméstico e impulsionar o seu crescimento. No caso das PME, as principais razões que as levam a sair do seu mercado doméstico e a arriscar em mercados externos prendem-se com motivações reativas e muitas vezes exógenas, como sejam a saturação do mercado doméstico, as pressões da concorrência e as relações com os clientes. Assim, a crise financeira no país, aliada à crise no setor da construção civil, leva esta PME portuguesa, do ramo da carpintaria de limpo, a procurar novas oportunidades no exterior. No entanto, como tem consciência da falta de experiência e conhecimento nos mercados internacionais, começa por abordar os mercados numa lógica de procura de novas oportunidades, aproveitando as oportunidades que lhe são dirigidas e vendo nestas uma forma de aprofundar relacionamentos e ganhar experiência neste âmbito. Posteriormente, este conhecimento e experiência permitir-lhe-á enveredar por uma estratégia de internacionalização mais ativa, abandonando/diminuindo a lógica de oportunidade e apostando numa lógica mais estruturada e planeada. Este trabalho, ao tirar proveito de um único estudo de caso, pretende analisar a perspetiva evolutiva da empresa, e como uma estratégia empreendedora, a confiança e a incorporação em redes de relacionamentos facilitam o processo de abertura aos mercados externos.

The Development of Public Finances and Role of Fiscal Constraints in a Monetary Union: Example eurozone

This thesis is about the development of public debt and deficit in the eurozone, which has been in the center of attention for much of the new millennium. The debt-to-GDP and deficit-to-GDP ratios have changed significantly during the period of the European monetary integration, with sharp increases in the levels since the beginning of the financial crisis. We view the levels both before and after the establishment of the European Central Bank. The subject is complemented by a study of the restrictions on fiscal policy in the eurozone. The thesis begins with a review of the most central agreements in the Economic and Monetary Union, namely the Maastricht Treaty, the Stability and Growth Pact and the Fiscal Compact. We study the instructions and requirements provided by these contracts, with the emphasis being on the debt and deficit values. Furthermore, we view two theories that aim to provide us with information, whether the fiscal restrictions are useful or not. The second and empirical part consists of review on the debt and deficit levels in practice. We take a close look on the values for each of the currency union members. The third and last part summarizes the findings, and analyzes the reasons behind the changes. The result of the thesis is, that even though the levels of public debt and deficit have worsened since the beginning of the financial crisis, tight rules on fiscal policy might not be the best possible solution. Private sector has played a crucial part in the increase of the debt levels, and tight rules have their impact on the long awaited economic growth in the eurozone. It is obvious, though, that some form of fiscal guidelines with scientific ground are needed in order to avoid excessive and harmful debt and deficit levels. The main task is to make these guidelines a more essential part of the fiscal policy in each of the member countries.

Three Essays in Empirical Asset Pricing

The financial crisis of 2007-2008 led to extraordinary government intervention in firms and markets. The scope and depth of government action rivaled that of the Great Depression. Many traded markets experienced dramatic declines in liquidity leading to the existence of conditions normally assumed to be promptly removed via the actions of profit seeking arbitrageurs. These extreme events motivate the three essays in this work. The first essay seeks and fails to find evidence of investor behavior consistent with the broad 'Too Big To Fail' policies enacted during the crisis by government agents. Only in limited circumstances, where government guarantees such as deposit insurance or U.S. Treasury lending lines already existed, did investors impart a premium to the debt security prices of firms under stress. The second essay introduces the Inflation Indexed Swap Basis (IIS Basis) in examining the large differences between cash and derivative markets based upon future U.S. inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI). It reports the consistent positive value of this measure as well as the very large positive values it reached in the fourth quarter of 2008 after Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. It concludes that the IIS Basis continues to exist due to limitations in market liquidity and hedging alternatives. The third essay explores the methodology of performing debt based event studies utilizing credit default swaps (CDS). It provides practical implementation advice to researchers to address limited source data and/or small target firm sample size.

Modelo de Scoring para o Crédito à Habitação: Um estudo de caso em Portugal

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras