Statistical-dynamical downscaling for wind energy potentials: evaluation and applications to decadal hindcasts and climate change projections

A statistical–dynamical downscaling (SDD) approach for the regionalization of wind energy output (Eout) over Europe with special focus on Germany is proposed. SDD uses an extended circulation weather type (CWT) analysis on global daily mean sea level pressure fields with the central point being located over Germany. Seventy-seven weather classes based on the associated CWT and the intensity of the geostrophic flow are identified. Representatives of these classes are dynamically downscaled with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM. By using weather class frequencies of different data sets, the simulated representatives are recombined to probability density functions (PDFs) of near-surface wind speed and finally to Eout of a sample wind turbine for present and future climate. This is performed for reanalysis, decadal hindcasts and long-term future projections. For evaluation purposes, results of SDD are compared to wind observations and to simulated Eout of purely dynamical downscaling (DD) methods. For the present climate, SDD is able to simulate realistic PDFs of 10-m wind speed for most stations in Germany. The resulting spatial Eout patterns are similar to DD-simulated Eout. In terms of decadal hindcasts, results of SDD are similar to DD-simulated Eout over Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Benelux, for which high correlations between annual Eout time series of SDD and DD are detected for selected hindcasts. Lower correlation is found for other European countries. It is demonstrated that SDD can be used to downscale the full ensemble of the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM) decadal prediction system. Long-term climate change projections in Special Report on Emission Scenarios of ECHAM5/MPI-OM as obtained by SDD agree well to the results of other studies using DD methods, with increasing Eout over northern Europe and a negative trend over southern Europe. Despite some biases, it is concluded that SDD is an adequate tool to assess regional wind energy changes in large model ensembles.

Landscape change in central Latvia since the Iron Age: multi-proxy analysis of the vegetation impact of conflict, colonization and economic expansion during the last 2000 years

This study represents the first detailed multi-proxy palaeoenvironmental investigation associated with a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling site in the eastern Baltic. The main objective was to reconstruct the environmental and vegetation dynamics associated with the establishment of the lake-dwelling and land-use during the last 2,000 years. A lacustrine sediment core located adjacent to a Late Iron Age lake-dwelling, medieval castle and Post-medieval manor was sampled in Lake Āraiši. The core was dated using spheroidal fly-ash particles and radiocarbon dating, and analysed in terms of pollen, non-pollen palynomorphs, diatoms, loss-on-ignition, magnetic susceptibility and element geochemistry. Associations between pollen and other proxies were statistically tested. During ad 1–700, the vicinity of Lake Āraiši was covered by forests and human activities were only small-scale with the first appearance of cereal pollen (Triticum and Secale cereale) after ad 400. The most significant changes in vegetation and environment occurred with the establishment of the lake-dwelling around ad 780 when the immediate surroundings of the lake were cleared for agriculture, and within the lake there were increased nutrient levels. The highest accumulation rates of coprophilous fungi coincide with the occupation of the lake-dwelling from ad 780–1050, indicating that parts of the dwelling functioned as byres for livestock. The conquest of tribal lands during the crusades resulted in changes to the ownership, administration and organisation of the land, but our results indicate that the form and type of agriculture and land-use continued much as it had during the preceding Late Iron Age.

Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density changes for 1993-2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs

Predictions of twenty-first century sea level change show strong regional variation. Regional sea level change observed by satellite altimetry since 1993 is also not spatially homogenous. By comparison with historical and pre-industrial control simulations using the atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the CMIP5 project, we conclude that the observed pattern is generally dominated by unforced (internal generated) variability, although some regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, may already show an externally forced response. Simulated unforced variability cannot explain the observed trends in the tropical Pacific, but we suggest that this is due to inadequate simulation of variability by CMIP5 AOGCMs, rather than evidence of anthropogenic change. We apply the method of pattern scaling to projections of sea level change and show that it gives accurate estimates of future local sea level change in response to anthropogenic forcing as simulated by the AOGCMs under RCP scenarios, implying that the pattern will remain stable in future decades. We note, however, that use of a single integration to evaluate the performance of the pattern-scaling method tends to exaggerate its accuracy. We find that ocean volume mean temperature is generally a better predictor than global mean surface temperature of the magnitude of sea level change, and that the pattern is very similar under the different RCPs for a given model. We determine that the forced signal will be detectable above the noise of unforced internal variability within the next decade globally and may already be detectable in the tropical Atlantic.

Global analysis of radiative forcing from fire-induced shortwave albedo change

Land surface albedo, a key parameter to derive Earth's surface energy balance, is used in the parameterization of numerical weather prediction, climate monitoring and climate change impact assessments. Changes in albedo due to fire have not been fully investigated on a continental and global scale. The main goal of this study, therefore, is to quantify the changes in instantaneous shortwave albedo produced by biomass burning activities and their associated radiative forcing. The study relies on the MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MCD64A1 burned-area product to create an annual composite of areas affected by fire and the MCD43C2 bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) albedo snow-free product to compute a bihemispherical reflectance time series. The approximate day of burning is used to calculate the instantaneous change in shortwave albedo. Using the corresponding National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) monthly mean downward solar radiation flux at the surface, the global radiative forcing associated with fire was computed. The analysis reveals a mean decrease in shortwave albedo of −0.014 (1σ = 0.017), causing a mean positive radiative forcing of 3.99 Wm−2 (1σ = 4.89) over the 2002–20012 time period in areas affected by fire. The greatest drop in mean shortwave albedo change occurs in 2002, which corresponds to the highest total area burned (378 Mha) observed in the same year and produces the highest mean radiative forcing (4.5 Wm−2). Africa is the main contributor in terms of burned area, but forests globally give the highest radiative forcing per unit area and thus give detectable changes in shortwave albedo. The global mean radiative forcing for the whole period studied (~0.0275 Wm−2) shows that the contribution of fires to the Earth system is not insignificant.

Transcriptomic analysis of Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 in response to plant extracts

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) are a group of food and contact-borne pathogens responsible for haemorrhagic colitis. The bacteria can be transmitted by contaminated meat, but importantly, also by plants. The bacteria can use plants as an alternative host, where they associate with both the leaves and the roots. Colonisation in the rhizosphere of plants is thought to be the main habitat for colonisation. Four different plant species, commonly associated with EHEC outbreaks, were infected with EHEC O157:H7 isolates Sakai and TUV 93-0 over ten days to assess the colonisation potential of the bacteria in both the phyllosphere and rhizosphere of plants. The rhizosphere was found to sustain a higher population level of bacteria over time in comparison to the phyllosphere, yet both strains were unable to utilize root exudates for growth. Global gene expression changes of EHEC O157:H7 strain Sakai were measured in response to plant extracts such as leaf lysates, root exudates and leaf cell wall polysaccharides from spinach cultivar Amazon and lettuce cultivar Salinas. Microarrays analysis showed a significant change in expression of 17 % of genes on exposure to leaf lysates of spinach. A more specific response was seen to spinach leaf cell wall polysaccharides with only a 1.5 % change. In contrast, when exposed to lettuce leaf cell wall polysaccharides a higher change of 4.8 % was seen. Genes that were differentially expressed belonged to multiple functional groups, including metabolism, indicating the utilization of plant-specific polysaccharides. Several areas of further investigation have been determined from this project, including the importance of culturing bacterial strains at a relevant temperature, the proposed lack of the type III secretion system in plant colonization by EHEC O157:H7 and the utilization of plant components for growth and persistence in the plant environment.

Interacting effects of change in climate, human population, land use, and water use on biodiversity and ecosystem services

Human population growth and resource use, mediated by changes in climate, land use, and water use, increasingly impact biodiversity and ecosystem services provision. However, impacts of these drivers on biodiversity and ecosystem services are rarely analyzed simultaneously and remain largely unknown. An emerging question is how science can improve the understanding of change in biodiversity and ecosystem service delivery and of potential feedback mechanisms of adaptive governance. We analyzed past and future change in drivers in south-central Sweden. We used the analysis to identify main research challenges and outline important research tasks. Since the 19th century, our study area has experienced substantial and interlinked changes; a 1.6°C temperature increase, rapid population growth, urbanization, and massive changes in land use and water use. Considerable future changes are also projected until the mid-21st century. However, little is known about the impacts on biodiversity and ecosystem services so far, and this in turn hampers future projections of such effects. Therefore, we urge scientists to explore interdisciplinary approaches designed to investigate change in multiple drivers, underlying mechanisms, and interactions over time, including assessment and analysis of matching-scale data from several disciplines. Such a perspective is needed for science to contribute to adaptive governance by constantly improving the understanding of linked change complexities and their impacts.

An analysis of teaching methods for children who are deaf with multiple disabilities

This study analyzes the placement, services, and teaching methods of students who are deaf with additional disabilities. Through this analysis, these students are compared to students with multiple disabilities, not including deafness.

Outcome analysis of immediately placed, immediately restored implants in the esthetic area: The clinical relevance of different interimplant distances

Background: The purpose of this study was to compare and evaluate bone and soft tissue levels between immediately placed, immediately restored implants positioned in the esthetic anterior region with different interimplant distances (IID). Methods: Forty-nine patients requiring multiple implant restorations in the anterior regions received 152 implants, which were restored immediately. Periapical radiographs and digital images of 99 interimplant sites were taken at the regular follow-up examinations at 0, 6, 12, and 24 months after surgery. They were digitally recorded and analyzed. The presence of the interproximal papilla was assessed and compared to the distances between the bone crest and the contact point between the natural teeth and the restoration crowns. Results: Implants with an IID <2 mm seemed to lose less bone laterally. When the IID was <2 mm, vertical crestal bone loss was significantly greater than in the group with IID >4 mm. The percentage of the interproximal papilla presence decreased when the distance between the bone crest and the contact point between the two restoration crowns was >6 mm and when two implants were placed at a distance >= 4 mm. Conclusions: To guarantee a better esthetic result in immediately placed, immediately restored implants, the contact point between the two prosthetic crowns should be placed at 3 to 4 mm, and never >6 mm, from the bone peak. Two adjacent implants should be placed at a distance >2 and <4 mm.

Coalescent analysis of mtDNA indicates Pleistocene divergence among three species of howler monkey (Alouatta spp.) and population subdivision within the Atlantic Coastal Forest species, A. guariba

We have used coalescent analysis of mtDNA cytochrome b (cyt b) sequences to estimate times of divergence of three species of Alouatta-A. caraya, A. belzebul, and A. guariba-which are in close geographic proximity. A. caraya is inferred to have diverged from the A. guariba/A. belzebul clade approximately 3.83 million years ago (MYA), with the later pair diverging approximately 1.55 MYA. These dates are much more recent than previous dates based on molecular-clock methods. In addition, analyses of new sequences from the Atlantic Coastal Forest species A. guariba indicate the presence of two distinct haplogroups corresponding to northern and southern populations with both haplogroups occurring in sympatry within Sao Paulo state. The time of divergence of these two haplogroups is estimated to be 1.2 MYA and so follows quite closely after the divergence of A. guariba and A. belzebul. These more recent dates point to the importance of Pleistocene environmental events as important factors in the diversification of A. belzebul and A. guariba. We discuss the diversification of the three Alouatta species in the context of recent models of climatic change and with regard to recent molecular phylogeographic analyses of other animal groups distributed in Brazil.

Molecular analysis of a mutant Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus (AgMNPV) shows an interruption of an inhibitor of apoptosis gene (iap-3) by a new class-II piggyBac-related insect transposon

A new piggyBac-related transposable element (TE) was found in the genome of a mutant Anticarsia gemmatalis multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus interrupting an inhibitor of apoptosis gene. This mutant virus induces apoptosis upon infection of an Anticarsia gemmatalis cell line, but not in a Trichoplusia ni cell line. The sequence of the new TE (which was named IDT for iap disruptor transposon) has 2531 bp with two DNA sequences flanking a putative Transposase (Tpase) ORF of 1719 bp coding for a protein with 572 amino acids. These structural features are similar to the piggyBac TE, also reported for the first time in the genome of a baculovirus. We have also isolated variants of this new TE from different lepidopteran insect cells and compared their Tpase sequences.

High genetic diversity in field isolates of Trypanosoma theileri assessed by analysis of cathepsin L-like sequences disclosed multiple and new genotypes infecting cattle in Thailand

In this study, we describe the first survey in Thailand of Trypanosoma theileri, a widespread and prevalent parasite of cattle that is transmitted by tabanid flies. Investigation of 210 bovine blood samples of Thai cattle from six farms by hematocrit centrifuge technique (HCT) revealed 14 samples with trypanosomes morphologically compatible to T. theileri. Additional animals were positive for T. theileri by PCR based on the Cathepsin L-like sequence (TthCATL-PCR) despite negative by HCT, indicating cryptic infections. Results revealed a prevalence of 26 +/- 15% (95% CI) of T. theileri infection. Additionally, 12 samples positive for T. theileri were detected in cattle from other 11 farms. From a total of 30 blood samples positive by HCT and/or PCR from 17 farms, seven were characterized to evaluate the genetic polymorphism of T. theileri through sequence analysis of PCR-amplified CATL DNA sequences. All CATL sequences of T. theileri from Thai cattle clustered with sequences of the previously described phylogenetic lineages TthI and TthII, supporting only two major lineages of T. theileri in cattle around the world. However, 11 of the 29 CATL sequences analyzed showed to be different, disclosing an unexpectedly large polymorphic genetic repertoire, with multiple genotypes of T. theileri not previously described in other countries circulating in Thai cattle. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Plasmodium vivax: Microsatellite analysis of multiple-clone infections

We used mixtures of genomic DNA from two genetically distinct isolates from Brazil, 42M and 312M, to investigate how accurately 12-locus microsatellite typing describes the overall genetic diversity and characterizes multilocus haplotypes in multiple-clone Plasmodium vivax infections. We found varying PCR amplification efficiencies of microsatellite alleles; for example, from the same 1:1 mixture of 42M and 312M DNA we amplified predominantly 312M-type alleles at 10 loci and 42M-type alleles at 2 loci. All microsatellite alleles were accurately scored in 1:0.5 and 1:0.25 312M:42M DNA mixtures, even when minor peak heights did not meet previously suggested criteria for minor allele detection in multiple-clone infections. Relative proportions of major and minor alleles were unaffected by multiple displacement amplification of template DNA prior to PCR-based microsatellite typing. Although microsatellite typing may detect minor alleles in clone mixtures, amplification biases may lead to inaccurate assignment of predominant haplotypes in multiple-clone P. vivax infections. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multiple Pathways Analysis of Brain Functional Networks from EEG Signals: An Application to Real Data

In the present study, we propose a theoretical graph procedure to investigate multiple pathways in brain functional networks. By taking into account all the possible paths consisting of h links between the nodes pairs of the network, we measured the global network redundancy R (h) as the number of parallel paths and the global network permeability P (h) as the probability to get connected. We used this procedure to investigate the structural and dynamical changes in the cortical networks estimated from a dataset of high-resolution EEG signals in a group of spinal cord injured (SCI) patients during the attempt of foot movement. In the light of a statistical contrast with a healthy population, the permeability index P (h) of the SCI networks increased significantly (P < 0.01) in the Theta frequency band (3-6 Hz) for distances h ranging from 2 to 4. On the contrary, no significant differences were found between the two populations for the redundancy index R (h) . The most significant changes in the brain functional network of SCI patients occurred mainly in the lower spectral contents. These changes were related to an improved propagation of communication between the closest cortical areas rather than to a different level of redundancy. This evidence strengthens the hypothesis of the need for a higher functional interaction among the closest ROIs as a mechanism to compensate the lack of feedback from the peripheral nerves to the sensomotor areas.

Multiple Brake Orbits and Homoclinics in Riemannian Manifolds

Let (M, g) be a complete Riemannian manifold, Omega subset of Man open subset whose closure is homeomorphic to an annulus. We prove that if a,Omega is smooth and it satisfies a strong concavity assumption, then there are at least two distinct geodesics in starting orthogonally to one connected component of a,Omega and arriving orthogonally onto the other one. Using the results given in Giamb et al. (Adv Differ Equ 10:931-960, 2005), we then obtain a proof of the existence of two distinct homoclinic orbits for an autonomous Lagrangian system emanating from a nondegenerate maximum point of the potential energy, and a proof of the existence of two distinct brake orbits for a class of Hamiltonian systems. Under a further symmetry assumption, the result is improved by showing the existence of at least dim(M) pairs of geometrically distinct geodesics as above, brake orbits and homoclinic orbits. In our proof we shall use recent deformation results proved in Giamb et al. (Nonlinear Anal Ser A: Theory Methods Appl 73:290-337, 2010).

Marketing Social Change: A Comparative Historical and Methodological Analysis of Anti-Smoking Endeavors

Even though assessing social marketing endeavors proves to be challenging, evaluators can learn from previous campaigns and identify which facets of social marketing events, programs and campaigns need to be improved. Additionally, by analyzing social movements and evaluating how they connect to social marketing, we can gain a clearer view on ways to ameliorate the field of social marketing. As social marketing becomes increasingly sophisticated and similar to commercial marketing, there is hope that social marketing can yield higher rates of success in the future. Friend and Levy (2002) claimed that it was nearly impossible to compare social marketing endeavors using quantitative criteria and advocate the use of qualitative methods. However, if social marketing scholars developed a more systematic paradigm to assess events, programs and campaigns employing a combination of both quantitative and qualitative methods, then it would be easier to establish which social marketing efforts generated more success than others. When there are too many confounding variables, conclusions cannot always be drawn and evaluations may not be viewed as legitimate. As a result, critics become skeptical of social marketing’s value and both the importance and credibility of social marketing decline. With the establishment of proper criteria and evaluation methods, social marketing can progress and initiate more social change.