Pricing derivatives with stochastic volatility

This Ph.D. thesis contains 4 essays in mathematical finance with a focus on pricing Asian option (Chapter 4), pricing futures and futures option (Chapter 5 and Chapter 6) and time dependent volatility in futures option (Chapter 7). In Chapter 4, the applicability of the Albrecher et al.(2005)'s comonotonicity approach was investigated in the context of various benchmark models for equities and com- modities. Instead of classical Levy models as in Albrecher et al.(2005), the focus is the Heston stochastic volatility model, the constant elasticity of variance (CEV) model and the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model. It is shown that the method delivers rather tight upper bounds for the prices of Asian Options in these models and as a by-product delivers super-hedging strategies which can be easily implemented. In Chapter 5, two types of three-factor models were studied to give the value of com- modities futures contracts, which allow volatility to be stochastic. Both these two models have closed-form solutions for futures contracts price. However, it is shown that Model 2 is better than Model 1 theoretically and also performs very well empiri- cally. Moreover, Model 2 can easily be implemented in practice. In comparison to the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model, it is shown that Model 2 has its unique advantages; hence, it is also a good choice to price the value of commodity futures contracts. Fur- thermore, if these two models are used at the same time, a more accurate price for commodity futures contracts can be obtained in most situations. In Chapter 6, the applicability of the asymptotic approach developed in Fouque et al.(2000b) was investigated for pricing commodity futures options in a Schwartz (1997) multi-factor model, featuring both stochastic convenience yield and stochastic volatility. It is shown that the zero-order term in the expansion coincides with the Schwartz (1997) two-factor term, with averaged volatility, and an explicit expression for the first-order correction term is provided. With empirical data from the natural gas futures market, it is also demonstrated that a significantly better calibration can be achieved by using the correction term as compared to the standard Schwartz (1997) two-factor expression, at virtually no extra effort. In Chapter 7, a new pricing formula is derived for futures options in the Schwartz (1997) two-factor model with time dependent spot volatility. The pricing formula can also be used to find the result of the time dependent spot volatility with futures options prices in the market. Furthermore, the limitations of the method that is used to find the time dependent spot volatility will be explained, and it is also shown how to make sure of its accuracy.

Standardized environmental management systems as an internal management tool

In a principal-agent model we analyze the firm’s decision to adopt an informal or a standardized Environmental Management System (EMS). Our results are consistent with empirical evidence in several respects. A standardized EMS increases the internal control at the cost of introducing some degree of rigidity that entails an endogenous setup cost. Standardized systems are more prone to be adopted by big and well established firms and under tougher environmental policies. Firms with standardized EMS tend to devote more effort to abatement although this effort results in lower pollution only if public incentives are strong enough, suggesting a complementarity relationship between standardized EMS and public policies. Emission charges have both a marginal effect on abatement and a qualitative effect on the adoption decision that may induce a conflict between private and public interests. As a result of the combination of these two effects it can be optimal for the government to distort the tax in a specific way in order to push the firm to choose the socially optimal EMS. The introduction of standardized systems can result in win-win situations where firms, society and the environment get better off.

Capital structure, risk and asymmetric information : theory and evidence

This paper proposes a principal-agent model between banks and firms with risk and asymmetric information. A mixed form of finance to firms is assumed. The capital structure of firms is a relevant cause for the final aggregate level of investment in the economy. In the model analyzed, there may be a separating equilibrium, which is not economically efficient, because aggregate investments fall short of the first-best level. Based on European firm-level data, an empirical model is presented which validates the result of the relevance of the capital structure of firms. The relative magnitude of equity in the capital structure makes a real difference to the profits obtained by firms in the economy.

Metodologia multicritério para avaliar as condições de operação do transporte de carga por cabotagem no Brasil, sob a ótica dos armadores

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Tecnologia, Departamento de Engenharia Civil e Ambiental, 2016.

A staggered approach for the coupling of Cahn–Hilliard type diffusion and finite strain elasticity

We develop an algorithm and computational implementation for simulation of problems that combine Cahn–Hilliard type diffusion with finite strain elasticity. We have in mind applications such as the electro-chemo- mechanics of lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries. We concentrate on basic computational aspects. A staggered algorithm is pro- posed for the coupled multi-field model. For the diffusion problem, the fourth order differential equation is replaced by a system of second order equations to deal with the issue of the regularity required for the approximation spaces. Low order finite elements are used for discretization in space of the involved fields (displacement, concentration, nonlocal concentration). Three (both 2D and 3D) extensively worked numerical examples show the capabilities of our approach for the representation of (i) phase separation, (ii) the effect of concentration in deformation and stress, (iii) the effect of Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00466-015-1235-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. B P. Areias pmaa@uevora.pt 1 Department of Physics, University of Évora, Colégio Luís António Verney, Rua Romão Ramalho, 59, 7002-554 Évora, Portugal 2 ICIST, Lisbon, Portugal 3 School of Engineering, Universidad de Cuenca, Av. 12 de Abril s/n. 01-01-168, Cuenca, Ecuador 4 Institute of Structural Mechanics, Bauhaus-University Weimar, Marienstraße 15, 99423 Weimar, Germany strain in concentration, and (iv) lithiation. We analyze con- vergence with respect to spatial and time discretization and found that very good results are achievable using both a stag- gered scheme and approximated strain interpolation.

Extending the 2P-Kt ecosystem: CLP and Labelled LP

The ability to create hybrid systems that blend different paradigms has now become a requirement for complex AI systems usually made of more than a component. In this way, it is possible to exploit the advantages of each paradigm and exploit the potential of different approaches such as symbolic and non-symbolic approaches. In particular, symbolic approaches are often exploited for their efficiency, effectiveness and ability to manage large amounts of data, while symbolic approaches are exploited to ensure aspects related to explainability, fairness, and trustworthiness in general. The thesis lies in this context, in particular in the design and development of symbolic technologies that can be easily integrated and interoperable with other AI technologies. 2P-Kt is a symbolic ecosystem developed for this purpose, it provides a logic-programming (LP) engine which can be easily extended and customized to deal with specific needs. The aim of this thesis is to extend 2P-Kt to support constraint logic programming (CLP) as one of the main paradigms for solving highly combinatorial problems given a declarative problem description and a general constraint-propagation engine. A real case study concerning school timetabling is described to show a practical usage of the CLP(FD) library implemented. Since CLP represents only a particular scenario for extending LP to domain-specific scenarios, in this thesis we present also a more general framework: Labelled Prolog, extending LP with labelled terms and in particular labelled variables. The designed framework shows how it is possible to frame all variations and extensions of LP under a single language reducing the huge amount of existing languages and libraries and focusing more on how to manage different domain needs using labels which can be associated with every kind of term. Mapping of CLP into Labeled Prolog is also discussed as well as the benefits of the provided approach.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

A BEM model applied to failure analysis of multi-fractured structures

Due to manufacturing or damage process, brittle materials present a large number of micro-cracks which are randomly distributed. The lifetime of these materials is governed by crack propagation under the applied mechanical and thermal loadings. In order to deal with these kinds of materials, the present work develops a boundary element method (BEM) model allowing for the analysis of multiple random crack propagation in plane structures. The adopted formulation is based on the dual BEM, for which singular and hyper-singular integral equations are used. An iterative scheme to predict the crack growth path and crack length increment is proposed. This scheme enables us to simulate the localization and coalescence phenomena, which are the main contribution of this paper. Considering the fracture mechanics approach, the displacement correlation technique is applied to evaluate the stress intensity factors. The propagation angle and the equivalent stress intensity factor are calculated using the theory of maximum circumferential stress. Examples of multi-fractured domains, loaded up to rupture, are considered to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A numerical model for the description of the nonlinear behaviour of multi-leaf masonry walls

A nonlinear finite element model was developed to simulate the nonlinear response of three-leaf masonry specimens, which were subjected to laboratory tests with the aim of investigating the mechanical behaviour of multiple-leaf stone masonry walls up to failure. The specimens consisted of two external leaves made of stone bricks and mortar joints, and an internal leaf in mortar and stone aggregate. Different loading conditions, typologies of the collar joints, and stone types were taken into account. The constitutive law implemented in the model is characterized by a damage tensor, which allows the damage-induced anisotropy accompanying the cracking process to be described. To follow the post-peak behaviour of the specimens with sufficient accuracy it was necessary to make the damage model non-local, to avoid mesh-dependency effects related to the strain-softening behaviour of the material. Comparisons between the predicted and measured failure loads are quite satisfactory in most of the studied cases. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A master equation model for bimolecular reaction via multi-well isomerization intermediates

A reversible linear master equation model is presented for pressure- and temperature-dependent bimolecular reactions proceeding via multiple long-lived intermediates. This kinetic treatment, which applies when the reactions are measured under pseudo-first-order conditions, facilitates accurate and efficient simulation of the time dependence of the populations of reactants, intermediate species and products. Detailed exploratory calculations have been carried out to demonstrate the capabilities of the approach, with applications to the bimolecular association reaction C3H6 + H reversible arrow C3H7 and the bimolecular chemical activation reaction C2H2 +(CH2)-C-1--> C3H3+H. The efficiency of the method can be dramatically enhanced through use of a diffusion approximation to the master equation, and a methodology for exploiting the sparse structure of the resulting rate matrix is established.

Chitosan as a Bioadhesive Agent Between Porphyrins and Phospholipids in a Biomembrane Model

Porphyrins are currently used in photodynamic therapy as photosensitizers. In this paper we studied the interaction of two charged porphyrins, 5, 10, 15, 20-mesotetrakis(N-metyl-4-pyridyl) porphyrin, (TMPyP/chloride salt) cationic, and 5, 10, 15, 20-meso-tetrakis(sulfonatophenyl) porphyrin, (TPPS(4)/sodium salt) anionic, nanoassembled in phospholipid Langmuir monolayers and Langmuir-Blodgett films. Furthermore, we used chitosan to mediate the interaction between the porphyrins and the model membrane, aiming to understand the role of the polysaccharide in a molecular level. The effect of the interaction of the photosensitizers on the fluidity of the lipid monolayer was investigated by using dilatational surface elasticity. We also used photoluminescence (PL) spectroscopy to identify the porphyrins adsorbed in the phospholipid films. We observed an expansion of the monolayer promoted by the adsorption of the porphyrins into the lipid-air interface which was more pronounced in the case of TMPyP, as a consequence of a strong electrostatic interaction with the anionic monolayer. The chitosan promoted a higher adsorption of the porphyrins on the phospholipid monolayers and enabled the porphyrin to stay in its monomeric form (as confirmed by PL spectroscopy), thus demonstrating that chitosan can be pointed out as a potential photosensitizer delivery system in photodynamic therapy.

Three-dimensional model for multi-component reactive transport with variable density groundwater flow

PHWAT is a new model that couples a geochemical reaction model (PHREEQC-2) with a density-dependent groundwater flow and solute transport model (SEAWAT) using the split-operator approach. PHWAT was developed to simulate multi-component reactive transport in variable density groundwater flow. Fluid density in PHWAT depends not on only the concentration of a single species as in SEAWAT, but also the concentrations of other dissolved chemicals that can be subject to reactive processes. Simulation results of PHWAT and PHREEQC-2 were compared in their predictions of effluent concentration from a column experiment. Both models produced identical results, showing that PHWAT has correctly coupled the sub-packages. PHWAT was then applied to the simulation of a tank experiment in which seawater intrusion was accompanied by cation exchange. The density dependence of the intrusion and the snow-plough effect in the breakthrough curves were reflected in the model simulations, which were in good agreement with the measured breakthrough data. Comparison simulations that, in turn, excluded density effects and reactions allowed us to quantify the marked effect of ignoring these processes. Next, we explored numerical issues involved in the practical application of PHWAT using the example of a dense plume flowing into a tank containing fresh water. It was shown that PHWAT could model physically unstable flow and that numerical instabilities were suppressed. Physical instability developed in the model in accordance with the increase of the modified Rayleigh number for density-dependent flow, in agreement with previous research. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of dynamic models for structural insight and model reduction .2. A multi-stage compressor shutdown case-study

In this second paper, the three structural measures which have been developed are used in the modelling of a three stage centrifugal synthesis gas compressor. The goal of this case study is to determine the essential mathematical structure which must be incorporated into the compressor model to accurately model the shutdown of this system. A simple, accurate and functional model of the system is created via three structural measures. It was found that the model can be correctly reduced into its basic modes and that the order of the differential system can be reduced from 51(st) to 20(th). Of the 31 differential equational 21 reduce to algebraic relations, 8 become constants and 2 can be deleted thereby increasing the algebraic set from 70 to 91 equations. An interpretation is also obtained as to which physical phenomena are dominating the dynamics of the compressor add whether the compressor will enter surge during the shutdown. Comparisons of the reduced model performance against the full model are given, showing the accuracy and applicability of the approach. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Polyethylene flow prediction with a differential multi-mode Pom-Pom model

We report the first steps of a collaborative project between the University of Queensland, Polyflow, Michelin, SK Chemicals, and RMIT University; on simulation, validation and application of a recently introduced constitutive model designed to describe branched polymers. Whereas much progress has been made on predicting the complex flow behaviour of many - in particular linear - polymers, it sometimes appears difficult to predict simultaneously shear thinning and extensional strain hardening behaviour using traditional constitutive models. Recently a new viscoelastic model based on molecular topology, was proposed by McLeish and Larson (1998). We explore the predictive power of a differential multi-mode version of the pom-pom model for the flow behaviour of two commercial polymer melts: a (long-chain branched) low-density polyethylene (LDPE) and a (linear) high-density polyethylene (HDPE). The model responses are compared to elongational recovery experiments published by Langouche and Debbaut (1999), and start-up of simple shear flow, stress relaxation after simple and reverse step strain experiments carried out in our laboratory.