Gestão do empréstimo unificado nas bibliotecas da Universidade de São Paulo

Apresenta a implantação do empréstimo unificado nas Bibliotecas do Sistema Integrado de Bibliotecas da Universidade de São Paulo (SIBiUSP), coordenado pelo Grupo de Gestão do Empréstimo Unificado. Introduz o cenário inicial das bibliotecas da Universidade, destacando a autonomia para definir políticas locais. Descreve as iniciativas isoladas que culminaram com unificação da política do empréstimo utilizada por todas as bibliotecas. Estabelece comparação entre os procedimentos adotados antes e depois da implantação e conclui relatando os benefícios obtidos pelos 138 mil usuários das bibliotecas USP e na padronização de procedimentos e rotinas adotadas pelas bibliotecas em seus 1,7 milhões de empréstimos domiciliares.

Il ruolo delle idee e del loro cambiamento nei processi di policy making universitario nel mondo anglosassone dagli anni ottanta ad oggi. I casi di Inghilterra e Nuova Zelanda in prospettiva comparata

THE TITLE OF MY THESIS IS THE ROLE OF THE IDEAS AND THEIR CHANGE IN HIGHER EDUCATION POLICY-MAKING PROCESSES FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY: THE CASES OF ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND IN COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE UNDER A THEORETICAL POINT OF VIEW, THE AIM OF MY WORK IS TO CARRY OUT A RESEARCH MODELLED ON THE CONSTRUCTIVIST THEORY. IT FOCUSES ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF IDEAS ON THE PROCESSES OF POLICY MAKING BY MEANS OF EPISTEMIC COMMUNITIES, THINK TANKS AND VARIOUS SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXTS THAT MAY HAVE PLAYED A KEY ROLE IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THE DIFFERENT PATHS. FROM MY POINT OF VIEW IDEAS CONSTITUTE A PRIORITY RESEARCH FIELD WHICH IS WORTH ANALYSING SINCE THEIR ROLE IN POLICY MAKING PROCESSES HAS BEEN TRADITIONALLY RATHER UNEXPLORED. IN THIS CONTEXT AND WITH THE AIM OF DEVELOPING A RESEARCH STRAND BASED ON THE ROLE OF IDEAS, I INTEND TO CARRY ON MY STUDY UNDER THE PERSPECTIVE OF CHANGE. DEPENDING ON THE DATA AND INFORMATION THAT I COLLECTED I EVALUATED THE WEIGHT OF EACH OF THESE VARIABLES AND MAYBE OTHERS SUCH AS THE INSTITUTIONS AND THE INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS, WHICH MAY HAVE INFLUENCED THE FORMATION OF THE POLICY MAKING PROCESSES. UNDER THIS LIGHT, I PLANNED TO ADOPT THE QUALITATIVE METHODOLOGY OF RESEARCH WHICH I BELIEVE TO BE VERY EFFECTIVE AGAINST THE MORE DIFFICULT AND POSSIBLY REDUCTIVE APPLICATION OF QUANTITIVE DATA SETS. I RECKON THEREFORE THAT THE MOST APPROPRIATE TOOLS FOR INFORMATION PROCESSING INCLUDE CONTENT ANALYSIS, AND IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS TO PERSONALITIES OF THE POLITICAL PANORAMA (ÉLITE OR NOT) WHO HAVE PARTICIPATED IN THE PROCESS OF HIGHER EDUCATION REFORM FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY. THE TWO CASES TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION SURELY SET AN EXAMPLE OF RADICAL REFORM PROCESSES WHICH HAVE OCCURRED IN QUITE DIFFERENT CONTEXTS DETERMINED BY THE SOCIOECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THE TRAITS OF THE ÉLITE. IN NEW ZEALAND THE DESCRIBED PROCESS HAS TAKEN PLACE WITH A STEADY PACE AND A GOOD GRADE OF CONSEQUANTIALITY, IN LINE WTH THE REFORMS IN OTHER STATE DIVISIONS DRIVEN BY THE IDEAS OF THE NEW PUBLIC MANAGEMENT. CONTRARILY IN ENGLAND THE REFORMATIVE ACTION OF MARGARET THATCHER HAS ACQUIRED A VERY RADICAL CONNOTATION AS IT HAS BROUGHT INTO THE AMBIT OF HIGHER EDUCATION POLICY CONCEPTS LIKE EFFICIENCY, EXCELLENCE, RATIONALIZATION THAT WOULD CONTRAST WITH THE GENERALISTIC AND MASS-ORIENTED IDEAS THAT WERE FASHIONABLE DURING THE SEVENTIES. THE MISSION I INTEND TO ACCOMPLISH THORUGHOUT MY RESEARCH IS TO INVESTIGATE AND ANALYSE INTO MORE DEPTH THE DIFFERENCES THAT SEEM TO EMERGE FROM TWO CONTEXTS WHICH MOST OF THE LITERATURE REGARDS AS A SINGLE MODEL: THE ANGLO-SAXON MODEL. UNDER THIS LIGHT, THE DENSE ANALYSIS OF POLICY PROCESSES ALLOWED TO BRING OUT BOTH THE CONTROVERSIAL AND CONTRASTING ASPECTS OF THE TWO REALITIES COMPARED, AND THE ROLE AND WEIGHT OF VARIABLES SUCH AS IDEAS (MAIN VARIABLE), INSTITUTIONAL SETTINGS AND INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS ACTING IN EACH CONTEXT. THE CASES I MEAN TO ATTEND PRESENT PECULIAR ASPECTS WORTH DEVELOPING AN IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS, AN OUTLINE OF WHICH WILL BE PROVIDED IN THIS ABSTRACT. ENGLAND THE CONSERVATIVE GOVERNMENT, SINCE 1981, INTRODUCED RADICAL CHANGES IN THE SECTOR OF HIGHER EDUCATION: FIRST CUTTING DOWN ON STATE FUNDINGS AND THEN WITH THE CREATION OF AN INSTITUTION FOR THE PLANNING AND LEADERSHIP OF THE POLYTECHNICS (NON-UNIVERSITY SECTOR). AFTERWARDS THE SCHOOL REFORM BY MARGARET THATCHER IN 1988 RAISED TO A GREAT STIR ALL OVER EUROPE DUE TO BOTH ITS CONSIDERABLE INNOVATIVE IMPRINT AND THE STRONG ATTACK AGAINST THE PEDAGOGY OF THE ‘ACTIVE’ SCHOOLING AND PROGRESSIVE EDUCATION, UNTIL THEN RECOGNIZED AS A MERIT OF THE BRITISH PUBLIC SCHOOL. IN THE AMBIT OF UNIVERSITY EDUCATION THIS REFORM, TOGETHER WITH SIMILAR MEASURES BROUGHT IN DURING 1992, PUT INTO PRACTICE THE CONSERVATIVE PRINCIPLES THROUGH A SERIES OF ACTIONS THAT INCLUDED: THE SUPPRESSION OF THE IRREMOVABILITY PRINCIPLE FOR UNIVERSITY TEACHERS; THE INTRODUCTION OF STUDENT LOANS FOR LOW-INCOME STUDENTS AND THE CANCELLATION OF THE CLEAR DISTINCTION BETWEEN UNIVERSITIES AND POLYTECHNICS. THE POLICIES OF THE LABOUR MAJORITY OF MR BLAIR DID NOT QUITE DIVERGE FROM THE CONSERVATIVES’ POSITION. IN 2003 BLAIR’S CABINET RISKED TO BECOME A MINORITY RIGHT ON THE OCCASION OF AN IMPORTANT UNIVERSITY REFORM PROPOSAL. THIS PROPOSAL WOULD FORESEE THE AUTONOMY FOR THE UNIVERSITIES TO RAISE UP TO 3.000 POUNDS THE ENROLMENT FEES FOR STUDENTS (WHILE FORMERLY THE CEILING WAS 1.125 POUNDS). BLAIR HAD TO FACE INTERNAL OPPOSITION WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY IN RELATION TO A MEASURE THAT, ACCORDING TO THE 150 MPS PROMOTERS OF AN ADVERSE MOTION, HAD NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE ELECTORAL PROGRAMME AND WOULD RISK CREATING INCOME-BASED DISCRIMINATION AMONG STUDENTS. AS A MATTER OF FACT THE BILL FOCUSED ON THE INTRODUCTION OF VERY LOW-INTEREST STUDENT LOANS TO BE SETTLED ONLY WHEN THE STUDENT WOULD HAVE FOUND A REMUNERATED OCCUPATION (A SYSTEM ALREADY PROVIDED FOR BY THE AUSTRALIAN LEGISLATION). NEW ZEALAND CONTRARILY TO MANY OTHER COUNTRIES, NEW ZEALAND HAS ADOPTED A VERY WIDE VISION OF THE TERTIARY EDUCATION. IT INCLUDES IN FACT THE FULL EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMME THAT IS INTERNATIONALLY RECOGNIZED AS THE POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION. SHOULD WE SPOTLIGHT A PECULIARITY OF THE NEW ZEALAND TERTIARY EDUCATION POLICY THEN IT WOULD BE ‘CHANGE’. LOOKING AT THE REFORM HISTORY RELATED TO THE TERTIARY EDUCATION SYSTEM, WE CAN CLEARLY IDENTIFY FOUR ‘SUB-PERIODS’ FROM THE EIGHTIES TO PRESENT-DAY: 1. BEFORE THE 80S’: AN ELITARIAN SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY LOW PARTICIPATION RATES. 2. BETWEEN MID AND LATE 80S’: A TREND TOWARDS THE ENLARGEMENT OF PARTICIPATION ASSOCIATED TO A GREATER COMPETITION. 3. 1990-1999: A FUTHER STEP TOWARDS A COMPETITIVE MODEL BASED ON THE MARKET-ORIENTED SYSTEM. 4. FROM 2000 TO TODAY: A CONTINUOUS EVOLUTION TOWARDS A MORE COMPETITIVE MODEL BASED ON THE MARKET-ORIENTED SYSTEM TOGETHER WITH A GROWING ATTENTION TO STATE CONTROL FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE NATION. AT PRESENT THE GOVERNMENT OF NEW ZEALAND OPERATES TO STRENGHTHEN THIS PROCESS, PRIMARILY IN RELATION TO THE ROLE OF TERTIARY EDUCATION AS A STEADY FACTOR OF NATIONAL WALFARE, WHERE PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT CONTRIBUTES ACTIVELY TO THE GROWTH OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMIC SYSTEM5. THE CASES OF ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND ARE THE FOCUS OF AN IN-DEPTH INVESTIGATION THAT STARTS FROM AN ANALYSIS OF THE POLICIES OF EACH NATION AND DEVELOP INTO A COMPARATIVE STUDY. AT THIS POINT I ATTEMPT TO DRAW SOME PRELIMINARY IMPRESSIONS ON THE FACTS ESSENTIALLY DECRIBED ABOVE. THE UNIVERSITY POLICIES IN ENGLAND AND NEW ZEALAND HAVE BOTH UNDERGONE A SIGNIFICANT REFORMATORY PROCESS SINCE THE EARLY EIGHTIES; IN BOTH CONTEXTS THE IMPORTANCE OF IDEAS THAT CONSTITUTED THE BASE OF POLITICS UNTIL 1980 WAS QUITE RELEVANT. GENERALLY SPEAKING, IN BOTH CASES THE PRE-REFORM POLICIES WERE INSPIRED BY EGALITARIANISM AND EXPANSION OF THE STUDENT POPULATION WHILE THOSE BROUGHT IN BY THE REFORM WOULD PURSUE EFFICIENCY, QUALITY AND COMPETITIVENESS. UNDOUBTEDLY, IN LINE WITH THIS GENERAL TENDENCY THAT REFLECTS THE HYPOTHESIS PROPOSED, THE TWO UNIVERSITY SYSTEMS PRESENT SEVERAL DIFFERENCES. THE UNIVERSITY SYSTEM IN NEW ZEALAND PROCEEDED STEADILY TOWARDS THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A MANAGERIAL CONCEPTION OF TERTIARY EDUCATION, ESPECIALLY FROM 1996 ONWARDS, IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE REFORMATORY PROCESS OF THE WHOLE PUBLIC SECTOR. IN THE UNITED KINGDOM, AS IN THE REST OF EUROPE, THE NEW APPROACH TO UNIVERSITY POLICY-MAKING HAD TO CONFRONT A DEEP-ROOTED TRADITION OF PROGRESSIVE EDUCATION AND THE IDEA OF EDUCATION EXPANSION THAT IN FACT DOMINATED UNTIL THE EIGHTIES. FROM THIS VIEW POINT THE GOVERNING ACTION OF MARGARET THATCHER GAVE RISE TO A RADICAL CHANGE THAT REVOLUTIONIZED THE OBJECTIVES AND KEY VALUES OF THE WHOLE EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM, IN PARTICULAR IN THE HIGHER EDUCATION SECTOR. IDEAS AS EFFICIENCY, EXCELLENCE AND CONTROL OF THE PERFORMANCE BECAME DECISIVE. THE LABOUR CABINETS OF BLAIR DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF CONSERVATIVE REFORMS. THIS APPEARS TO BE A FOCAL POINT OF THIS STUDY THAT OBSERVES HOW ALSO IN NEW ZEALAND THE REFORMING PROCESS OCCURRED TRANSVERSELY DURING PROGRESSIVE AND CONSERVATIVE ADMINISTRATIONS. THE PRELIMINARY IMPRESSION IS THEREFORE THAT IDEAS DEEPLY MARK THE REFORMATIVE PROCESSES: THE AIM OF MY RESEARCH IS TO VERIFY TO WHICH EXTENT THIS STATEMENT IS TRUE. IN ORDER TO BUILD A COMPREHENSIVE ANALYLIS, FURTHER SIGNIFICANT FACTORS WILL HAVE TO BE INVESTIGATED: THE WAY IDEAS ARE PERCEIVED AND IMPLEMENTED BY THE DIFFERENT POLITICAL ELITES; HOW THE VARIOUS SOCIOECONOMIC CONTEXTS INFLUENCE THE REFORMATIVE PROCESS; HOW THE INSTITUTIONAL STRUCTURES CONDITION THE POLICY-MAKING PROCESSES; WHETHER INDIVIDUAL INTERESTS PLAY A ROLE AND, IF YES, TO WHICH EXTENT.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

Modificazioni soggettive del rapporto obbligatorio e garanzie reali

Lo studio del lato soggettivo del rapporto è centrale nella teoria dell’obbligazione. Ci si chiede se la modificazione di una o anche di entrambe le parti del rapporto determini sempre la sua estinzione o se, invece, si conservi la sua unitarietà oggettiva. La risposta a questo interrogativo è stata diversa a seconda delle diverse epoche storiche. Nel diritto romano si riteneva che la variazione di qualunque soggetto determinasse l’estinzione del rapporto e la costituzione di una nuova obbligazione (novazione soggettiva). Tale soluzione è stata osteggiata dai codificatori moderni per i quali, in caso di modifica delle personae non si ha estinzione del rapporto, ma solo il mutamento di uno dei suoi elementi. Quanto ai diritti di garanzia, in particolare l’ipoteca, i principi generali essenzali sono la specialità e l’accessorietà. Quest’ultima caratteristica è dirimente in caso di modificazione soggettiva del rapporto e ciò emerge in sede di trattazione delle singole fattispecie del Codice Civile che la determinano, sia quanto al creditore sia quanto al debitore. Per velocizzare il subentro nel credito, nel 2007 è stato approvato il decreto Bersani (sulla portabilità del mutuo) che ha consentito di rimuovere vincoli a tale circolazione, nell’ambito dei rapporti bancari. Le caratteristiche della modificazione del rapporto obbligatorio, tuttavia, possono minare l’efficacia della riforma Bersani. Questo è il motivo per il quale taluni studiosi ritengono necessario procedere a un’ampia rivisitazione dell’intero diritto ipotecario, eliminando, sulla scia di quanto accaduto in altri ordinamenti europei, il requisito dell’accessorietà del vincolo. Nonostante ciò, a causa dei rischi connessi a questa riforma, si ritiene preferibile affinare il meccanismo di perfezionamento della portabilità, eliminandone le criticità, senza però pregiudicare le sicurezze dell’attuale sistema giuridico, di cui l’accessorietà dell’ipoteca rispetto al credito costituisce un importante caposaldo.

Le società pubbliche a partecipazione regionale e locale operanti nei settori dei servizi pubblici locali e dei servizi “strumentali” e quelle con scopo lucrativo: la recente evoluzione legislativa, gli ambiti di attività ed i relativi limiti, le prospettive future.

Con la prima parte, si intende fornire un quadro pressoché esaustivo delle principali disposizioni in materia di società a partecipazione pubblica regionale e locale operanti nel campo dei servizi pubblici locali e della loro interpretazione giurisprudenziale e dottrinale, prendendo le mosse dagli ultimi interventi legislativo. Nella seconda parte, si affronta, invece, il tema dei limiti legislativi alla capacità di azione delle società a partecipazione pubblica e dei connessi dubbi interpretativi, anche alla luce degli orientamenti giurisprudenziali e dottrinali. In particolare, l’analisi riguarda l’art. 13 del decreto”Bersani” e il comma 9 dell’art. 23 bis (ora pedissequamente trasfuso nel comma 33 dell’art. 4 del d.l. n. 138/2011), ossia le principali disposizioni che definiscono, rispettivamente, la capacità di azione delle società (a partecipazione pubblica) strumentali e di quelle operanti nel campo dei servizi pubblici locali titolari di affidamenti diretti (assentiti con modalità diverse dall’evidenza pubblica). Vengono forniti cenni di inquadramento in relazione al cd. procedimento di riordino delle partecipazioni societarie pubbliche previsto dalla legge finanziaria del 2008 (art. 3, commi 27 – 32). Dal combinato disposto delle suddette norme, così come interpretate dalla giurisprudenza costituzionale ed amministrativa, si ricavano, poi, utili indicazioni in ordine alla possibilità, per gli enti pubblici territoriali, di costituire società con scopo meramente lucrativo (ossia, soggetti societari privi del rapporto di strumentalità con gli enti costituenti o partecipanti, chiamati ad operare, in regime di concorrenza, in settori completamente liberalizzati) e società cd. multiutilities (aventi oggetto sociale complesso, la cui attività si estrinseca tanto nel campo dei servizi strumentali, quanto in quello dei servizi pubblici locali), nonché in relazione alla disciplina applicabile all’attività di detti soggetti societari. La finalità ultima del contributo consiste nell'individuazione delle linee guida finalizzate alla classificazione delle società pubbliche in funzione della loro attività.

Essays on Bank Risk

This PhD Thesis is composed of three chapters, each discussing a specific type of risk that banks face. The first chapter talks about Systemic Risk and how banks get exposed to it through the Interbank Funding Market. Exposures in the said market have Systemic Risk implications because the market creates linkages, where the failure of one party can affect the others in the market. By showing that CDS Spreads, as bank risk indicators, are positively related to their Net Interbank Funding Market Exposures, this chapter establishes the above Systemic Risk Implications of Interbank Funding. Meanwhile, the second chapter discusses how banks may handle Illiquidity Risk, defined as the possibility of having sudden funding needs. Illiquidity Risk is embodied in this chapter through Loan Commitments as they oblige banks to lend to its clients, up to a certain amount of funds at any time. This chapter points out that using Securitization as funding facility, could allow the banks to manage this Illiquidity Risk. To make this case, this chapter demonstrates empirically that banks having an increase in Loan Commitments, may experience an increase in risk profile but such can be offset by an accompanying increase in Securitization Activity. Lastly, the third chapter focuses on how banks manage Credit Risk also through Securitization. Securitization has a Credit Risk management property by allowing the offloading of risk. This chapter investigates how banks use such property by looking at the effect of securitization on the banks’ loan portfolios and overall risk and returns. The findings are that securitization is positively related to loan portfolio size and the portfolio share of risky loans, which translates to higher risk and returns. Thus, this chapter points out that Credit Risk management through Securitization may be have been done towards higher risk taking for high returns.

Trasmissibilità del mutuo, circolazione del credito e surrogazione

La presente ricerca mira ad individuare e risolvere alcuni problemi di inquadramento e di disciplina applicabile in ordine all’istituto regolato dall’art. 8 della legge n. 40/2007, con successive modificazioni ed integrazioni, definito a livello normativo come «portabilità del mutuo». In particolare, ci si è chiesti come la nuova normativa in tema di trasferibilità del mutuo possa inserirsi all’interno della disciplina della surrogazione se quest’ultima non venga considerata come possibile strumento di circolazione del credito e se ci si possa spingere fino a considerare l’art. 8 come una riscrittura moderna dell’istituto codicistico. Sebbene l’art. 8 non sia stato limitato ai finanziamenti ipotecari, tali istituti costituiscono il principale ambito di applicazione della normativa. Per questa ragione si è sostenuto che la disposizione, più che la «portabilità del mutuo», avrebbe lo scopo di incentivare la «portabilità dell’ipoteca», intendendosi quest’ultima come la surrogazione del nuovo finanziatore nel credito ipotecario, ovvero più specificamente nell’ipoteca, ai sensi dell’art. 1202 c.c. Lo studio dei riflessi della surrogazione, così come prevista dalla legge del 2007, sulle garanzie in generale e sull’ipoteca in particolare, ha mostrato come il legislatore, tramite l’introduzione di una disciplina semplificata, abbia inteso adeguare gli istituti giuridici tradizionali alle esigenze pratiche di flessibilità del mercato del credito; ciò tuttavia con scarso successo e lasciando aperti taluni dubbi interpretativi. Al fine di approfondire la ricerca, si è affrontata la materia oggetto di studio in un’ottica comparata, rilevando quali siano a livello europeo le principali differenze in tema di circolazione del credito, portabilità del mutuo e trasferibilità delle garanzie.

A critical appraisal of the legal framework governing the approval in microfinance Establishments within CEMAC

During the mid 80 19s and the early 90 19s the Banking sector of the CEMAC sub-region experienced crisis. This could be seen from the numerous liquidation of Banks within the sub-region during this period, microfinance establishments found a place as an alternative financial institution involved in the provision of savings and loans to the masses. The exercise of the activities of microfinance necessitates an application for approval form the monetary authority. Their potential managers and auditors must equally apply and obtain a license before functioning. After this approval has been obtained the microfinance establishment must register with the National Credit Council and the Trade and Personal Property Credit Register. // Durant les années 80 et au début des années 90 le secteur Bancaire de la sous-région CEMAC on vécue une crise, ceci pouvait ce voit par de nombreuse liquidation des Banques au sein de la sous-région pendant cette période. Les Etablissement de Micro finance ont trouve une place comme une institution financière alternative s’impliquant dans la fourniture de l’épargne et des prêts pour la masses. Mais l'exercice de l'activité de microfinance exige une demande d'agrément remise par l'autorité monétaire après confirmation de la commission bancaire. Mais avant que cet agrément soit remis, ils doivent fournir certain documents et informations. Les microfinances sont également oblige de fournir certaines documents et information s'il veut offrir un agence dans un du état membre de la CEMAC. Quand cette agrément est remise il sont les obligations administrative et professionnelle a remplir. Ceci consiste de s’inscrire auprès du Conseil National du Crédit et le Registre du Commerce et du Crédit Mobilier, adhérer a une Association Professionnelle, mais ils sont le choix adhérer à un réseau ou de poursuivre les activités indépendamment. L'autorité monétaire peut unilatéralement retrait la décision d'agrément pour un raison ou l'autre. Cependant, la décision de retrait de l'agrément est assujettir à un appel devant le conseil d'administration de la BEAC. La commission bancaire a prévu un ensemble de sanctions pour s'assurer que une personne ou établissement en défaut soit appelle en ordre. // Cameroon, Micro-finance, CEMAC, COBAC, Legislation

Formation of Exchange Rates on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling

Galina Kovaleva. The Formation of the Exchange Rate on the Russian Market: Dynamics and Modelling. The Russian financial market is fast becoming one of the major sectors of the Russian economy. Assets have been increasing steadily, while new market segments and new financial market instruments have emerged. Kovaleva attempted to isolate the factors influencing exchange rates, determine patterns in the dynamic changes to the rouble/dollar exchange rate, construct models of the processes, and on the basis of these activities make forecasts. She studied the significance of economic indicators influencing the rouble/dollar exchange rate at different times, and developed multi-factor econometric models. In order to reveal the inner structure of the financial indicators and to work out ex-post forecasts for different time intervals, she carried out a series of calculations with the aim of constructing trend-cyclical (TC) and harmonic models, and Box and Jenkins models. She found that: 1. The Russian financial market is dependant on the rouble/dollar exchange rate. Its dynamics are formed under the influence of the short-term state treasury notes and government bonds markets, interbank loans, the rouble/DM exchange rate, the inflation rate, and the DM/dollar exchange rate. The exchange rate is influenced by sales on the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange and the mechanism of those sales. 2. The TC model makes it possible to conduct an in-depth study of the structure of the processes and to make forecasts of the dynamic changes to currency indicators. 3. The Russian market is increasingly influenced by the world currency market and its prospects are of crucial interest for the world financial community.

Governor Tom Judge: Early Years - The Path to Becoming Montana's 18th Governor -- Sidney Armstrong, Larry Pettit & Kent Kleinkopf “In the Crucible of Change”

The dramatic period of progressive change in Montana that is documented "In the Crucible of Change" series really exploded with the election of Governors Forrest Anderson and Tom Judge. Anderson's single term saw the dispatching of the sales tax as an issue for a long period, the reorganization of the executive branch of state government and the revision of Montana's Constitution. As a former legislator, county attorney, Supreme Court justice, and Attorney General, Anderson brought unmatched experience to the governorship when elected. Tom Judge, although much younger (elected MT’s youngest governor at age 38 immediately following Anderson), also brought serious experience to the governorship: six years as a MT State Representative, two years as a MT State Senator, four years is Lieutenant Governor and significant business experience. The campaign and election of John F. Kennedy in 1960 spurred other young Americans to service, including Tom Judge. First elected in 1960, he rose rapidly through MT’s political-governmental hierarchy until he took over the governorship in time to implement many of the changes started in Governor Anderson’s term. But as a strong progressive leader in his own right, Governor Judge sponsored and implemented significant advancements of his own for Montana. Those accomplishments, however, are the subject of other films in this series. This film deals with Tom Judge’s early years – his rise to the governorship from when he returned home after college at Notre Dame and newspaper experience in Kentucky to his actual election in November 1972. That story is discussed in this episode by three major players in the effort, all directly involved in Tom Judge’s early years and path to the governorship: Sidney Armstrong, Larry Pettit and Kent Kleinkopf. Their recollections of the early Tom Judge and the period of his advancement to the governorship provide an insider’s perspective of the growth of this significant leader of the important period of progressive change documented “In the Crucible of Change.” Sidney Armstrong, President of Sidney Armstrong Consulting, serves on the board and as the Executive Director of the Greater Montana Foundation. Formerly Executive Director of the Montana Community Foundation (MCF), she has served on national committees and participated in national foundation initiatives. While at MCF, she worked extensively with MT Governors Racicot and Martz on the state charitable endowment tax credit and other endowed philanthropy issues. A member of MT Governor Thomas L. Judge’s staff in the 1970s, she was also part of Governor Brian Schweitzer’s 2004 Transition Team, continuing to serve as a volunteer advisor during his term. In the 1980s, Sidney also worked for the MT State AFL-CIO and the MT Democratic Party as well as working two sessions with the MT Senate as Assistant Secretary of the Senate and aide to the President. A Helena native, and great granddaughter of pioneer Montanans, Sidney has served on numerous nonprofit boards, and is currently a board member for the Montana History Foundation. Recently she served on the board of the Holter Museum of Art and was a Governor’s appointee to the Humanities Montana board. She is a graduate of the International School of Geneva, Switzerland and the University of Montana. Armstrong's Irish maternal immigrant great-grandparents, Thomas and Maria Cahill Cooney, came to Virginia City, MT in a covered wagon in 1865, looking for gold. Eventually, they settled on the banks of the Missouri River outside Helena as ranchers. She also has roots in Butte, MT, where her journalist father's family, both of whom were newspaper people, lived. Her father, Richard K. O’Malley, is also the author of a well-known book about Butte, Mile High, Mile Deep, recently re-published by Russell Chatham. She is the mother of four and the grandmother of eight. Dr. Lawrence K. Pettit (Larry Pettit) (b. 5/2/1937) has had a dual career in politics and higher education. In addition to being Montana’s first Commissioner of Higher Education (the subject of another film in this series); Pettit, of Lewistown, served as legislative assistant to U.S. Senators James E. Murray and Lee Metcalf, campaign manager, head of transition team and assistant to Montana Governor Thomas L. Judge; taught political science at The Pennsylvania State University (main campus), was chair of political science at Montana State University, Deputy Commissioner for Academic Programs at the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, Chancellor of the University System of South Texas (since merged with Texas A&M University), President of Southern Illinois University, and President of Indiana University of Pennsylvania from where he retired in 2003. He has served as chair of the Commission on Leadership for the American Council on Education, president of the National Association of (University) System Heads, and on many national and state boards and commissions in higher education. Pettit is author of “If You Live by the Sword: Politics in the Making and Unmaking of a University President.” More about Pettit is found at http://www.lawrencekpettit.com… Kent Kleinkopf of Missoula is co-founder of a firm with a national scope of business that specializes in litigation consultation, expert vocational testimony, and employee assistance programs. His partner (and wife of 45 years) Kathy, is an expert witness in the 27 year old business. Kent received a BA in History/Education from the University of Idaho and an MA in Economics from the University of Utah. The Kleinkopfs moved to Helena, MT in 1971 where he was Assistant to the Commissioner of State Lands (later Governor) Ted Schwinden. In early 1972 Kent volunteered full time in Lt. Governor Tom Judge’s campaign for Governor, driving the Lt. Governor extensively throughout Montana. After Judge was elected governor, Kent briefly joined the staff of Governor Forrest Anderson, then in 1973 transitioned to Judge’s Governor’s Office staff, where he became Montana’s first “Citizens’ Advocate.” In that capacity he fielded requests for assistance from citizens with concerns and information regarding State Agencies. While on the Governor’s staff, Kent continued as a travel aide with the governor both in Montana and nationally. In 1977 Kent was appointed Director of the MT Department of Business Regulation. That role included responsibility as Superintendent of Banking and Chairman of the State Banking Board, where Kent presided over the chartering of many banks, savings and loans, and credit unions. In 1981 the Kleinkopfs moved to Missoula and went into the business they run today. Kent was appointed by Governor Brian Schweitzer to the Board of the Montana Historical Society in 2006, was reappointed and continues to serve. Kathy and Kent have a daughter and son-in-law in Missoula.

Emergence of Financial Intermediaries in Electronic Markets: The Case of Online P2P Lending

We analyze the role of intermediaries in electronic markets using detailed data of more than 14,000 originated loans on an electronic P2P (peer-to-peer) lending platform. In such an electronic credit market, lenders bid to supply a private loan. Screening of potential borrowers and the monitoring of loan repayment can be delegated to designated group leaders. We find that these market participants act as financial intermediaries and significantly improve borrowers' credit conditions by reducing information asymmetries, predominantly for borrowers with less attractive risk characteristics. Our findings may be surprising given the replacement of a bank by an electronic marketplace.

The Continuing Practice and Impact of Discrimination

This chapter provides a detailed discussion of the evidence on housing and mortgage lending discrimination, as well as the potential impacts of such discrimination on minority outcomes like homeownership and neighborhood environment. The paper begins by discussing conceptual issues surrounding empirical analyses of discrimination including explanations for why discrimination takes place, defining different forms of discrimination, and the appropriate interpretation of observed racial and ethnic differences in treatment or outcomes. Next, the paper reviews evidence on housing market discrimination starting with evidence of segregation and price differences in the housing market and followed by direct evidence of discrimination by real estate agents in paired testing studies. Finally, mortgage market discrimination and barriers in access to mortgage credit are discussed. This discussion begins with an assessment of the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership and follows with discussions of analyses of underwriting and the price of credit based on administrative and private sector data sources including analyses of the subprime market. The paper concludes that housing discrimination has declined especially in the market for owner-occupied housing and does not appear to play a large role in limiting the neighborhood choices of minority households or the concentration of minorities into central cities. On the other hand, the patterns of racial centralization and lower home ownership rates of African-Americans appear to be related to each other, and lower minority homeownership rates are in part attributable to barriers in the market for mortgage credit. The paper presents considerable evidence of racial and ethnic differences in mortgage underwriting, as well as additional evidence suggesting these differences may be attributable to differential provision of coaching, assistance, and support by loan officers. At this point, innovation in loan products, the shift towards risk based pricing, and growth of the subprime market have not mitigated the role credit barriers play in explaining racial and ethnic differences in homeownership. Further, the growth of the subprime lending industry appears to have segmented the mortgage market in terms of geography leading to increased costs of relying on local/neighborhood sources of mortgage credit and affecting the integrity of many low-income minority neighborhoods through increased foreclosure rates.

Determinants and Effects of Maturity Mismatches in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Bank Level Data

Despite the extensive work on currency mismatches, research on the determinants and effects of maturity mismatches is scarce. In this paper I show that emerging market maturity mismatches are negatively affected by capital inflows and price volatilities. Furthermore, I find that banks with low maturity mismatches are more profitable during crisis periods but less profitable otherwise. The later result implies that banks face a tradeoff between higher returns and risk, hence channeling short term capital into long term loans is caused by cronyism and implicit guarantees rather than the depth of the financial market. The positive relationship between maturity mismatches and price volatility, on the other hand, shows that the banks of countries with high exchange rate and interest rate volatilities can not, or choose not to hedge themselves. These results follow from a panel regression on a data set I constructed by merging bank level data with aggregate data. This is advantageous over traditional studies which focus only on aggregate data.

The Geographic Distribution of the Size and Timing of Monetary Policy Actions

This paper examines the magnitude and timing of the effects of changes in the monetary base on the aggregate and regional changes in bank loans within the United States. We consider both Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) regions, and individual states and the District of Columbia for our regional analysis. The empirical analysis provides some insight on the bank-lending channel of monetary policy. We find strong evidence of a 4-quarter lag in the effect of changes in the monetary base on bank loans. That finding proves robust across all regions and nearly all states.

Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework

This paper uses Bayesian vector autoregressive models to examine the usefulness of leading indicators in predicting US home sales. The benchmark Bayesian model includes home sales, the price of homes, the mortgage rate, real personal disposable income, and the unemployment rate. We evaluate the forecasting performance of six alternative leading indicators by adding each, in turn, to the benchmark model. Out-of-sample forecast performance over three periods shows that the model that includes building permits authorized consistently produces the most accurate forecasts. Thus, the intention to build in the future provides good information with which to predict home sales. Another finding suggests that leading indicators with longer leads outperform the short-leading indicators.