Data surveillance for infectious diseases: models, complex networks and machine learning

In this thesis, we investigate the role of applied physics in epidemiological surveillance through the application of mathematical models, network science and machine learning. The spread of a communicable disease depends on many biological, social, and health factors. The large masses of data available make it possible, on the one hand, to monitor the evolution and spread of pathogenic organisms; on the other hand, to study the behavior of people, their opinions and habits. Presented here are three lines of research in which an attempt was made to solve real epidemiological problems through data analysis and the use of statistical and mathematical models. In Chapter 1, we applied language-inspired Deep Learning models to transform influenza protein sequences into vectors encoding their information content. We then attempted to reconstruct the antigenic properties of different viral strains using regression models and to identify the mutations responsible for vaccine escape. In Chapter 2, we constructed a compartmental model to describe the spread of a bacterium within a hospital ward. The model was informed and validated on time series of clinical measurements, and a sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of different control measures. Finally (Chapter 3) we reconstructed the network of retweets among COVID-19 themed Twitter users in the early months of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. By means of community detection algorithms and centrality measures, we characterized users’ attention shifts in the network, showing that scientific communities, initially the most retweeted, lost influence over time to national political communities. In the Conclusion, we highlighted the importance of the work done in light of the main contemporary challenges for epidemiological surveillance. In particular, we present reflections on the importance of nowcasting and forecasting, the relationship between data and scientific research, and the need to unite the different scales of epidemiological surveillance.

Design, Synthesis And Biological Evaluation Of Hybrid Bioisoster Derivatives Of N-acylhydrazone And Furoxan Groups With Potential And Selective Anti-trypanosoma Cruzi Activity.

Hybrid bioisoster derivatives from N-acylhydrazones and furoxan groups were designed with the objective of obtaining at least a dual mechanism of action: cruzain inhibition and nitric oxide (NO) releasing activity. Fifteen designed compounds were synthesized varying the substitution in N-acylhydrazone and in furoxan group as well. They had its anti-Trypanosoma cruzi activity in amastigotes forms, NO releasing potential and inhibitory cruzain activity evaluated. The two most active compounds (6, 14) both in the parasite amastigotes and in the enzyme contain the nitro group in para position of the aromatic ring. The permeability screening in Caco-2 cell and cytotoxicity assay in human cells were performed for those most active compounds and both showed to be less cytotoxic than the reference drug, benznidazole. Compound 6 was the most promising, since besides activity it showed good permeability and selectivity index, higher than the reference drug. Thereby the compound 6 was considered as a possible candidate for additional studies.

Characterization Of Microsatellite Markers Developed From Prosopis Rubriflora And Prosopis Ruscifolia (leguminosae - Mimosoideae), Legume Species That Are Used As Models For Genetic Diversity Studies In Chaquenian Areas Under Anthropization In South America.

Prosopis rubriflora and Prosopis ruscifolia are important species in the Chaquenian regions of Brazil. Because of the restriction and frequency of their physiognomy, they are excellent models for conservation genetics studies. The use of microsatellite markers (Simple Sequence Repeats, SSRs) has become increasingly important in recent years and has proven to be a powerful tool for both ecological and molecular studies. In this study, we present the development and characterization of 10 new markers for P. rubriflora and 13 new markers for P. ruscifolia. The genotyping was performed using 40 P. rubriflora samples and 48 P. ruscifolia samples from the Chaquenian remnants in Brazil. The polymorphism information content (PIC) of the P. rubriflora markers ranged from 0.073 to 0.791, and no null alleles or deviation from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium (HW) were detected. The PIC values for the P. ruscifolia markers ranged from 0.289 to 0.883, but a departure from HW and null alleles were detected for certain loci; however, this departure may have resulted from anthropic activities, such as the presence of livestock, which is very common in the remnant areas. In this study, we describe novel SSR polymorphic markers that may be helpful in future genetic studies of P. rubriflora and P. ruscifolia.

An Integrated Framework To Improve The Concept Of Resource Specialisation.

Resource specialisation, although a fundamental component of ecological theory, is employed in disparate ways. Most definitions derive from simple counts of resource species. We build on recent advances in ecophylogenetics and null model analysis to propose a concept of specialisation that comprises affinities among resources as well as their co-occurrence with consumers. In the distance-based specialisation index (DSI), specialisation is measured as relatedness (phylogenetic or otherwise) of resources, scaled by the null expectation of random use of locally available resources. Thus, specialists use significantly clustered sets of resources, whereas generalists use over-dispersed resources. Intermediate species are classed as indiscriminate consumers. The effectiveness of this approach was assessed with differentially restricted null models, applied to a data set of 168 herbivorous insect species and their hosts. Incorporation of plant relatedness and relative abundance greatly improved specialisation measures compared to taxon counts or simpler null models, which overestimate the fraction of specialists, a problem compounded by insufficient sampling effort. This framework disambiguates the concept of specialisation with an explicit measure applicable to any mode of affinity among resource classes, and is also linked to ecological and evolutionary processes. This will enable a more rigorous deployment of ecological specialisation in empirical and theoretical studies.

Experiences From The Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Ecological Findings And Conservation Initiatives.

The Brazilian Atlantic Forest hosts one of the world's most diverse and threatened tropical forest biota. In many ways, its history of degradation describes the fate experienced by tropical forests around the world. After five centuries of human expansion, most Atlantic Forest landscapes are archipelagos of small forest fragments surrounded by open-habitat matrices. This 'natural laboratory' has contributed to a better understanding of the evolutionary history and ecology of tropical forests and to determining the extent to which this irreplaceable biota is susceptible to major human disturbances. We share some of the major findings with respect to the responses of tropical forests to human disturbances across multiple biological levels and spatial scales and discuss some of the conservation initiatives adopted in the past decade. First, we provide a short description of the Atlantic Forest biota and its historical degradation. Secondly, we offer conceptual models describing major shifts experienced by tree assemblages at local scales and discuss landscape ecological processes that can help to maintain this biota at larger scales. We also examine potential plant responses to climate change. Finally, we propose a research agenda to improve the conservation value of human-modified landscapes and safeguard the biological heritage of tropical forests.

Effects Of Sterilization Methods On The Physical, Chemical, And Biological Properties Of Silk Fibroin Membranes.

Silk fibroin has been widely explored for many biomedical applications, due to its biocompatibility and biodegradability. Sterilization is a fundamental step in biomaterials processing and it must not jeopardize the functionality of medical devices. The aim of this study was to analyze the influence of different sterilization methods in the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of dense and porous silk fibroin membranes. Silk fibroin membranes were treated by several procedures: immersion in 70% ethanol solution, ultraviolet radiation, autoclave, ethylene oxide, and gamma radiation, and were analyzed by scanning electron microscopy, Fourier-transformed infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction, tensile strength and in vitro cytotoxicity to Chinese hamster ovary cells. The results indicated that the sterilization methods did not cause perceivable morphological changes in the membranes and the membranes were not toxic to cells. The sterilization methods that used organic solvent or an increased humidity and/or temperature (70% ethanol, autoclave, and ethylene oxide) increased the silk II content in the membranes: the dense membranes became more brittle, while the porous membranes showed increased strength at break. Membranes that underwent sterilization by UV and gamma radiation presented properties similar to the nonsterilized membranes, mainly for tensile strength and FTIR results.

Censored Linear Regression Models For Irregularly Observed Longitudinal Data Using The Multivariate-t Distribution.

In acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) studies it is quite common to observe viral load measurements collected irregularly over time. Moreover, these measurements can be subjected to some upper and/or lower detection limits depending on the quantification assays. A complication arises when these continuous repeated measures have a heavy-tailed behavior. For such data structures, we propose a robust structure for a censored linear model based on the multivariate Student's t-distribution. To compensate for the autocorrelation existing among irregularly observed measures, a damped exponential correlation structure is employed. An efficient expectation maximization type algorithm is developed for computing the maximum likelihood estimates, obtaining as a by-product the standard errors of the fixed effects and the log-likelihood function. The proposed algorithm uses closed-form expressions at the E-step that rely on formulas for the mean and variance of a truncated multivariate Student's t-distribution. The methodology is illustrated through an application to an Human Immunodeficiency Virus-AIDS (HIV-AIDS) study and several simulation studies.

Oligomerization, Membrane Association, And In Vivo Phosphorylation Of Sugarcane Udp-glucose Pyrophosphorylase.

Sugarcane is a monocot plant that accumulates sucrose to levels of up to 50% of dry weight in the stalk. The mechanisms that are involved in sucrose accumulation in sugarcane are not well understood, and little is known with regard to factors that control the extent of sucrose storage in the stalks. UDP-glucose pyrophosphorylase (UGPase; EC 2.7.7.9) is an enzyme that produces UDP-glucose, a key precursor for sucrose metabolism and cell wall biosynthesis. The objective of this work was to gain insights into the ScUGPase-1 expression pattern and regulatory mechanisms that control protein activity. ScUGPase-1 expression was negatively correlated with the sucrose content in the internodes during development, and only slight differences in the expression patterns were observed between two cultivars that differ in sucrose content. The intracellular localization of ScUGPase-1 indicated partial membrane association of this soluble protein in both the leaves and internodes. Using a phospho-specific antibody, we observed that ScUGPase-1 was phosphorylated in vivo at the Ser-419 site in the soluble and membrane fractions from the leaves but not from the internodes. The purified recombinant enzyme was kinetically characterized in the direction of UDP-glucose formation, and the enzyme activity was affected by redox modification. Preincubation with H2O2 strongly inhibited this activity, which could be reversed by DTT. Small angle x-ray scattering analysis indicated that the dimer interface is located at the C terminus and provided the first structural model of the dimer of sugarcane UGPase in solution.

Deregulation Of Adipokines Related To Target Organ Damage On Resistant Hypertension.

Resistant hypertension (RHTN) includes patients with controlled blood pressure (BP) (CRHTN) and uncontrolled BP (UCRHTN). In fact, RHTN patients are more likely to have target organ damage (TOD), and resistin, leptin and adiponectin may affect BP control in these subjects. We assessed the relationship between adipokines levels and arterial stiffness, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) and microalbuminuria (MA). This cross-sectional study included CRHTN (n=51) and UCRHTN (n=38) patients for evaluating body mass index, ambulatory blood pressure monitoring, plasma adiponectin, leptin and resistin concentrations, pulse wave velocity (PWV), MA and echocardiography. Leptin and resistin levels were higher in UCRHTN, whereas adiponectin levels were lower in this same subgroup. Similarly, arterial stiffness, LVH and MA were higher in UCRHTN subgroup. Adiponectin levels negatively correlated with PWV (r=-0.42, P<0.01), and MA (r=-0.48, P<0.01) only in UCRHTN. Leptin was positively correlated with PWV (r=0.37, P=0.02) in UCRHTN subgroup, whereas resistin was not correlated with TOD in both subgroups. Adiponectin is associated with arterial stiffness and renal injury in UCRHTN patients, whereas leptin is associated with arterial stiffness in the same subgroup. Taken together, our results showed that those adipokines may contribute to vascular and renal damage in UCRHTN patients.

On The Consistency Of Monte Carlo Track Structure Dna Damage Simulations.

Monte Carlo track structures (MCTS) simulations have been recognized as useful tools for radiobiological modeling. However, the authors noticed several issues regarding the consistency of reported data. Therefore, in this work, they analyze the impact of various user defined parameters on simulated direct DNA damage yields. In addition, they draw attention to discrepancies in published literature in DNA strand break (SB) yields and selected methodologies. The MCTS code Geant4-DNA was used to compare radial dose profiles in a nanometer-scale region of interest (ROI) for photon sources of varying sizes and energies. Then, electron tracks of 0.28 keV-220 keV were superimposed on a geometric DNA model composed of 2.7 × 10(6) nucleosomes, and SBs were simulated according to four definitions based on energy deposits or energy transfers in DNA strand targets compared to a threshold energy ETH. The SB frequencies and complexities in nucleosomes as a function of incident electron energies were obtained. SBs were classified into higher order clusters such as single and double strand breaks (SSBs and DSBs) based on inter-SB distances and on the number of affected strands. Comparisons of different nonuniform dose distributions lacking charged particle equilibrium may lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the effect of energy on relative biological effectiveness. The energy transfer-based SB definitions give similar SB yields as the one based on energy deposit when ETH ≈ 10.79 eV, but deviate significantly for higher ETH values. Between 30 and 40 nucleosomes/Gy show at least one SB in the ROI. The number of nucleosomes that present a complex damage pattern of more than 2 SBs and the degree of complexity of the damage in these nucleosomes diminish as the incident electron energy increases. DNA damage classification into SSB and DSB is highly dependent on the definitions of these higher order structures and their implementations. The authors' show that, for the four studied models, different yields are expected by up to 54% for SSBs and by up to 32% for DSBs, as a function of the incident electrons energy and of the models being compared. MCTS simulations allow to compare direct DNA damage types and complexities induced by ionizing radiation. However, simulation results depend to a large degree on user-defined parameters, definitions, and algorithms such as: DNA model, dose distribution, SB definition, and the DNA damage clustering algorithm. These interdependencies should be well controlled during the simulations and explicitly reported when comparing results to experiments or calculations.

Augmented Mixed Models For Clustered Proportion Data.

Often in biomedical research, we deal with continuous (clustered) proportion responses ranging between zero and one quantifying the disease status of the cluster units. Interestingly, the study population might also consist of relatively disease-free as well as highly diseased subjects, contributing to proportion values in the interval [0, 1]. Regression on a variety of parametric densities with support lying in (0, 1), such as beta regression, can assess important covariate effects. However, they are deemed inappropriate due to the presence of zeros and/or ones. To evade this, we introduce a class of general proportion density, and further augment the probabilities of zero and one to this general proportion density, controlling for the clustering. Our approach is Bayesian and presents a computationally convenient framework amenable to available freeware. Bayesian case-deletion influence diagnostics based on q-divergence measures are automatic from the Markov chain Monte Carlo output. The methodology is illustrated using both simulation studies and application to a real dataset from a clinical periodontology study.

Inhibition Of Tumor Necrosis Factor-alpha And Cyclooxigenase-2 By Isatin: A Molecular Mechanism Of Protection Against Tnbs-induced Colitis In Rats.

Isatin, an indole alkaloid has been shown to have anti-microbial, anti-tumor and anti-inflammatory effects. Due to its findings, we evaluated whether this alkaloid would have any effect on TNBS-induced colitis. Animals (male Unib:WH rats, aged 8 weeks old) were induced colitis through a rectal administration of 2,4,6-trinitrobenzene sulphonic acid using a catheter inserted 8 cm into the rectum of the animals. The rats were divided into two major groups: non-colitic and colitic. The colitic group was sub-divided into 6 groups (10 animals per group): colitic non-treated, Isatin 3; 6; 12.5; 18.75 and 25 mg/kg. Our main results showed that the oral treatment with Isatin 6 and 25 mg/kg were capable of avoiding the increase in TNF-α, COX-2 and PGE₂ levels when compared to the colitic non-treated group. Interestingly, the same doses (6 and 25 mg/kg) were also capable of preventing the decrease in IL-10 levels comparing with the colitic non-treated group. The levels of MPO, (an indirect indicator of neutrophil presence), were also maintained lower than those of the colitic non-treated group. Isatin also prevented the decrease of SOD activity and increase of GSH-Px and GSH-Rd activity as well as the depletion of GSH levels. In conclusion, both pre-treatments (6 and 25 mg/kg) were capable of protecting the gut mucosa against the injury caused by TNBS, through the combination of antioxidant and anti-inflammatory properties, which, together, showed a protective activity of the indole alkaloid Isatin.

A Comparison Between Characterization And Biological Properties Of Brazilian Fresh And Aged Propolis.

As propolis is a highly valued bee product, we aimed to verify the quality of aged propolis, investigating their phenolic and flavonoid composition, levels of toxic metals, radical scavenging and antimicrobial activities. Samples of fresh and aged propolis of six different beekeepers, from the same geographical location, were investigated in terms of their phenolic and flavonoid composition and levels of Pb, Cd, and Cr, as well as radical scavenging and antimicrobial activities. The two groups of propolis had similar qualitative composition by HPLC-PDA and ESI(-)-MS. Fresh propolis and aged propolis show no differences when average values of extraction yield, flavonoids, EC50, or MIC were compared and both types of propolis showed good antimicrobial activity at low concentrations. Only levels of phenolic compounds were higher in fresh propolis. The propolis samples considered in this study, aged or fresh, had similar qualitative composition, although they were collected in different periods. Samples only differed in their levels of total phenolic content. Moreover, aged propolis conserves significant radical scavenging and antimicrobial properties. We suggest that aged propolis should not be discarded but explored for alternative applications.

Graphene Oxide: A Carrier For Pharmaceuticals And A Scaffold For Cell Interactions.

During the last ten years, graphene oxide has been explored in many applications due to its remarkable electroconductivity, thermal properties and mobility of charge carriers, among other properties. As discussed in this review, the literature suggests that a total characterization of graphene oxide must be conducted because oxidation debris (synthesis impurities) present in the graphene oxides could act as a graphene oxide surfactant, stabilizing aqueous dispersions. It is also important to note that the structure models of graphene oxide need to be revisited because of significant implications for its chemical composition and its direct covalent functionalization. Another aspect that is discussed is the need to consider graphene oxide surface chemistry. The hemolysis assay is recommended as a reliable test for the preliminary assessment of graphene oxide toxicity, biocompatibility and cell membrane interaction. More recently, graphene oxide has been extensively explored for drug delivery applications. An important increase in research efforts in this emerging field is clearly represented by the hundreds of related publications per year, including some reviews. Many studies have been performed to explore the graphene oxide properties that enable it to deliver more than one activity simultaneously and to combine multidrug systems with photothermal therapy, indicating that graphene oxide is an attractive tool to overcome hurdles in cancer therapies. Some strategic aspects of the application of these materials in cancer treatment are also discussed. In vitro studies have indicated that graphene oxide can also promote stem cell adhesion, growth and differentiation, and this review discusses the recent and pertinent findings regarding graphene oxide as a valuable nanomaterial for stem cell research in medicine. The protein corona is a key concept in nanomedicine and nanotoxicology because it provides a biomolecular identity for nanomaterials in a biological environment. Understanding protein corona-nanomaterial interactions and their influence on cellular responses is a challenging task at the nanobiointerface. New aspects and developments in this area are discussed.

In Vitro Biological Screening Of The Anticholinesterase And Antiproliferative Activities Of Medicinal Plants Belonging To Annonaceae.

The aim of this research was to investigate the antiproliferative and anticholinesterase activities of 11 extracts from 5 Annonaceae species in vitro. Antiproliferative activity was assessed using 10 human cancer cell lines. Thin-layer chromatography and a microplate assay were used to screen the extracts for acetylcholinesterase (AchE) inhibitors using Ellman's reagent. The chemical compositions of the active extracts were investigated using high performance liquid chromatography. Eleven extracts obtained from five Annonaceae plant species were active and were particularly effective against the UA251, NCI-470 lung, HT-29, NCI/ADR, and K-562 cell lines with growth inhibition (GI50) values of 0.04-0.06, 0.02-0.50, 0.01-0.12, 0.10-0.27, and 0.02-0.04 µg/mL, respectively. In addition, the Annona crassiflora and A. coriacea seed extracts were the most active among the tested extracts and the most effective against the tumor cell lines, with GI50 values below 8.90 µg/mL. The A. cacans extract displayed the lowest activity. Based on the microplate assay, the percent AchE inhibition of the extracts ranged from 12 to 52%, and the A. coriacea seed extract resulted in the greatest inhibition (52%). Caffeic acid, sinapic acid, and rutin were present at higher concentrations in the A. crassiflora seed samples. The A. coriacea seeds contained ferulic and sinapic acid. Overall, the results indicated that A. crassiflora and A. coriacea extracts have antiproliferative and anticholinesterase properties, which opens up new possibilities for alternative pharmacotherapy drugs.